GOLD

[Errol]

What does everyone think of these new Russian coins then?

 

 

7.78 gramm 999/1000.

[Bosworth]

Anyone sure enough of a dip on Mon/Tue to short gold on an etf?

 

[Pixel8r]

Anyone sure enough of a dip on Mon/Tue to short gold on an etf?

I am sure there will be a cartel induced dip on Monday, options expiry day, but not sure how far they will manage to take it down. I don't think there will be a dip on Tuesday.

 

I don't feel confident enough to play an ETF for it, as they have been trying to take it down all week and have never manage more than $10 before it rebounding straight back up. It could also be that the are unable to take it down at all on Monday.

 

 

[Perishabull]

Anyone sure enough of a dip on Mon/Tue to short gold on an etf?

 

I may be going short on GDX soon but it will be hedged with a long in OIH to profit from a potential expansion in the spread. Before you shoot me down it is not a bearish shot on GDX since if GDX goes up I still profit provided OIH outperforms GDX over the term of the trade. If the set up works out then it will be a bullish trade on the spread, I have no idea what direction each of them are going to go in.

[marmite]

one thing to bear in mind is the thin markets at the end of next week due to the Thanksgiving holidays. The Cartel may use a thinner market to push the price down or just as likely the chinese may push the price up. I expect a wild week what with option expires and the holidays.

[wren]

What does everyone think of these new Russian coins then?

 

 

7.78 gramm 999/1000.

Stylish. Is that a horseman and dragon motif like George and the dragon? I like the double-headed eagle also.

 

[Schaublin]

What does everyone think of these new Russian coins then?

 

 

7.78 gramm 999/1000.

 

 

I like the look of them - interesting that they are 1/4 Oz and not a metric measure. A friend of mine in Russia recently bought a stash of them.

[wren]

More about Paulson's new fund.

Paulson's golden investors have to commit $10 million

Fri Nov 20, 2009 4:49pm EST

 

By Svea Herbst-Bayliss

 

BOSTON (Reuters) - Investors tempted to put money into star hedge fund manager John Paulson's new gold portfolio will have to commit at least $10 million and leave the money locked up for at least one year, according to a prospectus.

 

In return, Paulson & Co, one of the world's biggest and most successful hedge fund firms, says it can deliver returns that top gold prices, at a time analysts are betting that rising demand will make the metal even pricier.

 

Since founding his New York-based firm in 1994, Paulson has concentrated mostly on merger deals and the credit market. A bet that housing prices could fall on a national level famously earned him roughly $3 billion in 2007.

 

Now, Paulson is making a concentrated bet on miners and other bullion-related investments because central banks are buying gold and he expects prices to keep rising as demand outpaces supply.

 

Gold prices reached an all-time high of $1152.85 an ounce this week.

 

Paulson has hired two gold industry experts: Victor Flores, HSBC's former senior gold mining analyst, and John Reade, a former senior metals strategist at UBS. Reade had originally planned to join Credit Suisse.

 

<snip>

 

Paulson's prospectus quotes William Poole, the former president of the St. Louis Fed, as saying "We are very vulnerable to an inflation explosion."

 

While Paulson's portfolios have long been winners, some potential investors expressed concern that the portfolio could be volatile and fall fast if gold prices retreat.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNew...ews&sp=true

 

[fitkid]

Gold market disconnect: Record prices, but not demand

 

November 20, 2009 | 2:42 pm

 

Gold remains in a powerful bull market as measured by prices in the futures market, where speculators can run rampant.

 

But third-quarter supply and demand data from the World Gold Council show that the surge in the metal’s price to record highs ($1,146.40 an ounce as of Friday) hasn’t been accompanied by record demand for the real thing.

 

The recent peak in demand for physical gold, in fact, was in the third quarter of 2008 -- before the financial-system meltdown accelerated.

 

The World Gold Council’s report on supply and demand in the quarter ended Sept. 30 put total global demand for gold at 800.3 tons, down 34% from the 1,205.6 tons purchased in the same quarter a year earlier.

 

Demand in the recent quarter also was below the 1,029.8 tons bought in the first quarter of this year, though 10% higher than the 724.8 tons of the second quarter.

 

Gold demand was down in the third quarter versus a year earlier in every major category of consumption, including jewelry (the biggest single source of demand), industrial use, official coins and purchases by exchange-traded funds.

 

The drop in physical demand partly reflects simple price-sensitivity: As gold goes up, some buyers back away.

 

Jewelry demand, for example, reached 673.3 tons in the third quarter of 2008, when gold’s price was mostly below $900 an ounce. In the third quarter of this year, with the price mostly above $900 and on its way to $1,009 by the quarter’s end, jewelry demand totaled 473.5 tons.

 

The global recession also has played a role in depressing jewelry demand this year compared with 2008, of course.

 

So how can the price of gold be flying when demand for the metal itself is well below recent peaks?

 

"This has been a speculative fund-driven futures rally," says Jon Nadler, a veteran analyst at Kitco Metals Inc. in Montreal. In other words, traders who play in the futures markets are betting on higher gold prices. But they aren’t interested in owning the actual metal.

 

This kind of disconnect can happen at any time in commodity markets. Remember oil in 2008?

 

Besides, in any market the price is set by the last buyer, whether the trade is for a huge sum or a tiny sum.

 

In the case of gold, it could work out that speculative demand in the futures market will be followed by a big revival in physical demand if more people around the globe decide that they must own the metal as a hedge against paper currencies, inflation, financial calamity or other reasons.

 

Interestingly, the Austrian government mint is betting otherwise, at least in the near term: The mint, the world’s biggest marketer of gold coins, recently said it planned to cut production by 32% in 2010, figuring that an improving global financial system will slash gold demand from investors.

 

The U.S. Mint, however, is siding with the bulls: On Dec. 3 it plans to resume production of American Eagle gold coins in half-ounce, quarter-ounce and tenth-of-an-ounce sizes to supplement its production of one-ounce coins.

 

Production of the smaller coins was suspended in 2008 because the Mint couldn’t get enough blanks from its fabricators, but that supply problem has been solved, said spokesman Michael White.

 

-- Tom Petruno

[Schaublin]

"This has been a speculative fund-driven futures rally," says Jon Nadler, a veteran analyst at Kitco Metals Inc. in Montreal. In other words, traders who play in the futures markets are betting on higher gold prices. But they aren’t interested in owning the actual metal.

 

Gotta love Jon Nadler - works for a PM dealer and makes a living trying to discourage people from buying. One of the best contrarian indicators on the planet. Do the opposite to Nadler's advice and you will not go too far wrong IMO.

[Errol]

Nadler's been gibbering about gold being too high since it was around $500.

[InSilverWeTrust]

They are a very strange bunch over there on the Kitco forums.

 

What is with all the negative comments on a PM's website? suspect...maybe?

[wren]

Interestingly the holdings at BullionVault seem to have remained at 18 tonnes for several months.

 

Maybe the 18-month long correction/sideways movement tempered demand?

[lupercal]

"This has been a speculative fund-driven futures rally," says Jon Nadler, a veteran analyst at Kitco Metals Inc. in Montreal. In other words, traders who play in the futures markets are betting on higher gold prices. But they aren’t interested in owning the actual metal.

 

Gotta love Jon Nadler - works for a PM dealer and makes a living trying to discourage people from buying. One of the best contrarian indicators on the planet. Do the opposite to Nadler's advice and you will not go too far wrong IMO.

 

 

I cant imagine a motive he would have for lying to stop people buying gold so I'm inclined to believe him when is says its driven by speculation. I think $500 is the cost of mining the metal plus a small premium. Having said that bubbles form in every market.

[Pixel8r]

I cant imagine a motive he would have for lying to stop people buying gold so I'm inclined to believe him when is says its driven by speculation. I think $500 is the cost of mining the metal plus a small premium. Having said that bubbles form in every market.

 

 

[fitkid]

 

How many are from another dimension eh SIR PIXEL8R .

 

From:

 

 

I thought i would post the article to try and retain some sort of perspective and balance to the argument.

[Pixel8r]

How many are from another dimension eh SIR PIXEL8R .

No kidding, it's almost like they don't read a thing, who needs to actually understand anything when you can have an opinion, hey.

 

Good to see you back, try a lay off the four letters, you add a certain camaraderie to the site

 

 

[Pixel8r]

[routemaster]

What does everyone think of these new Russian coins then?

 

 

7.78 gramm 999/1000.

 

I like the size, 1/4 troy ounce, however the reverse side in particular looks like a car park barrier token.

[Jake]

Pix you are doing a fantastic job collating all this gold news on here. Really helping me keep focused and ignoring the gold bubble top callers. Keep up the good work! Much thanks.

I agree there! Good work Pix. Saves me loads of time reading through Kitco, FS, and all the rest. Keep it up! One word of caution is Adrian Ash (BV) saying that they weren't selling gold to private investors recently. Basically he was reading same as Nadler. So we all need to be cautious. IMO...

[wren]

I agree there! Good work Pix. Saves me loads of time reading through Kitco, FS, and all the rest. Keep it up! One word of caution is Adrian Ash (BV) saying that they weren't selling gold to private investors recently. Basically he was reading same as Nadler. So we all need to be cautious. IMO...

Any link?

 

That would tie in with BV's holdings remaining static at 18 tonnes the last few months.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Joe Investor has either been scared by the behaviour of the gold market over the last year or is more interested in other things at the mo' like stock markets.

 

[Jake]

Any link?

 

That would tie in with BV's holdings remaining static at 18 tonnes the last few months.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Joe Investor has either been scared by the behaviour of the gold market over the last year or is more interested in other things at the mo' like stock markets.

 

Here you go.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_leverage_102420092

[Pixel8r]

I agree there! Good work Pix. Saves me loads of time reading through Kitco, FS, and all the rest. Keep it up! One word of caution is Adrian Ash (BV) saying that they weren't selling gold to private investors recently. Basically he was reading same as Nadler. So we all need to be cautious. IMO...

Thanks.

 

Interesting note from AA, I do find it curious that he mentions about GLD not gaining so much recently. I think people are starting not to trust ETFs such as GLD and would rather have physical. That was certainly the case recently when David Einhorn at Greenlight Capital sold 4.2 million GLD shares (roughly $390 Million) and moved it to physical, the GLD didn't start selling bars when he did that. Talk like Rob Kirby was making last month about the GLD bars being used to help the cartel meet delivery demands is also probably helping the move to physical.

 

I do agree we all need to be cautious and not us leverage to buy ourselves, leave that to the hedge funds/institutions who can borrow at 0.5%. That is why I won't touch the 2x & 3x gold ETFs, even though I can quiet often see in the market what is going to happen before it does. If too much private investor leverage gets used the PTB would arrange a shake out.

 

I know that I haven't been using BV at all recently, much prefer GM it just feels safer. I also notice that GM holdings are still increasing, they now hold over US$803 million of gold, silver, platinum & currencies as of 30 October 2009.

 

I think Jon Nadler can be regarded as a contra-indicator, what ever he says the opposite happens. Just do a search on google and there is plenty of evidence.

 

I expect when gold moves higher the PTB would try to create the atmosphere which is around currently, as Jim Sinclair has always said the people how will benefit the most out of golds rise will be the likes of Goldman sacs & establishment. They don't want the average Joe to rise in power easily and prefer to keep it for themselves.

[Pixel8r]

Viva la Restoration

 

Remarks of Robert K. Landis

finews.ch Gold Conference

Zurich, Switzerland, November 17, 2009

 

One of GATA's earliest supporters, Robert K. Landis, partner of Reginald H. Howe in Golden Sextant Advisors, gave the keynote speech at last week's FINews.ch gold conference in Zurich. Landis addressed the most basic but seldom acknowledged financial question, the question of what money is or should be, and how the choice inevitably leads humanity toward liberty or totalitarianism. Landis' address was titled "Viva la Restoration"

[bdye]

Thanks.

 

Interesting note from AA, I do find it curious that he mentions about GLD not gaining so much recently. I think people are starting not to trust ETFs such as GLD and would rather have physical. That was certainly the case recently when David Einhorn at Greenlight Capital sold 4.2 million GLD shares (roughly $390 Million) and moved it to physical, the GLD didn't start selling bars when he did that. Talk like Rob Kirby was making last month about the GLD bars being used to help the cartel meet delivery demands is also probably helping the move to physical.

 

I do agree we all need to be cautious and not us leverage to buy ourselves, leave that to the hedge funds/institutions who can borrow at 0.5%. That is why I won't touch the 2x & 3x gold ETFs, even though I can quiet often see in the market what is going to happen before it does. If too much private investor leverage gets used the PTB would arrange a shake out.

 

I know that I haven't been using BV at all recently, much prefer GM it just feels safer. I also notice that GM holdings are still increasing, they now hold over US$803 million of gold, silver, platinum & currencies as of 30 October 2009.

 

I think Jon Nadler can be regarded as a contra-indicator, what ever he says the opposite happens. Just do a search on google and there is plenty of evidence.

 

I expect when gold moves higher the PTB would try to create the atmosphere which is around currently, as Jim Sinclair has always said the people how will benefit the most out of golds rise will be the likes of Goldman sacs & establishment. They don't want the average Joe to rise in power easily and prefer to keep it for themselves.

 

 

 

I'd be grateful if you could spare a moment to say why you feel investing in gold through GM is better than investing through Bullionvault.