GOLD

[Steve Netwriter]

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/9470/techfl5.gif

 

The likely outcome of the S&P in the short term

 

That's really funny, but I don't think anyone looked

 

I'll repost it so they can't miss it.

 

 

:lol:

[G0ldfinger]

That's really funny, but I don't think anyone looked

 

I'll repost it so they can't miss it.

 

:lol:

This is good!

[G0ldfinger]

If it looks like a turd and smells like a turd..............

Oh boy. My pension fund is surely full of this stuff.

[tinecu]

We don't really believe this silver (and gold) prediction, do we?

 

I mean, I'd like to be rich as much as the next person, but... this sort of thing appeals much too much to my innermost desires for money for nothing...

 

Yeah the guy seem rather optimistic!

[Steve Netwriter]

This is the old HPC goldfinger gold thread.

 

Have you bought any gold thread wren ?

 

If you are asking where the HPC gold thread has gone, or where has the gold thread gone, this is your answer.

[Bobsta]

This is the old HPC goldfinger gold thread.

 

Have you bought any gold thread wren ?

 

If you are asking where the HPC gold thread has gone, or where has the gold thread gone, this is your answer.

 

I wonder if we could make it the HPC goldfinger cgnao gold thread? For research on buying gold and gold chart info this would surely be the answer.

[Steve Netwriter]

Hopefully tomorrow Google will have got the message

We can't have this thread slipping onto the 2nd page again !!!!

 

 

I'm sure all this price-watching is bad for the health!

 

I'm more than half tempted simply to spend all the money in my PM Fund on gold and silver right now, and not look at another price chart for six months!

 

Just my opinion, for what it's worth, and what I'd be doing if I had GBP and wanted to buy yet more.

 

For those with GBP to buy gold:

 

 

 

And for those with Yen:

 

 

 

IMO if you want to buy in the short-term, then all you can do is look at the short-term trend, and try and pick the dips towards the bottom end of the channel.

[Steve Netwriter]

I thought I'd try and be as calm thinking as possible and see what I'd do with US$.

That approach at least tempers the herd mania impulse buying on the rises.

 

 

In this environment I just can't see big dips.

 

Jim has this to say:

 

M3 Camouflaging Attempts To Hide Entire System Falling Over

 

Dear Friends,

 

The action of the Federal Reserve in declaring their lending on any collateral (which means no collateral in real value terms) to investment banks as well as commercial banks only institutionalizes what the Fed has been doing since all this started.

 

The most recent change in rates is an attempt to camouflage the enormous increase in the M3 that is inherent in the action to bailout an entire system now falling over.

 

I credit the Fed with making the situation obscure, but the problem is going to continue to accelerate. There is no practical solution.

 

Gold last night ran to $1033 then settled back to the key number of $1024 where it sat until Washington woke up at 6:30am. $1000 to $1050 is an area that will try unsuccessfully to restrain gold.

 

Gold is going to $1650.

 

When a commodity improves 665% the companies owning this commodity can only reflect that bull market, regardless of how hard any fund or funds try to stop it. Any such company with significant internal development will outperform.

 

Stay calm. Gold is heading to $1650 and I am almost certain that is much too conservative.

 

Regards,

Jim

 

and re the legal doc no one understands !

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

In conversation with CIGA Jack S, we decided the most probable meaning of the following legal speak is to determine who the regulator is for Gold ETFs. Is a gold ETF a commodity or a security? You cannot be both.

 

The regulations in some cases are contradictory, making accounting difficult.

 

My feeling is that you want it as a security in order to give the shareholder more protection. You might need it.

 

Interesting. I wonder why this is so important now.

[G0ldfinger]

From here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1018500

 

Credit Crunch 33AD

During the time of the Emperor Tiberius, 33AD - from Tacitus' Annals

 

In their dismay the senators, not one of whom was free from similar

guilt, threw themselves on the emperor's indulgence. He yielded, and a

year and six months were granted, within which every one was to settle

his private accounts conformably to the requirements of the law.

Hence followed a scarcity of money, a great shock being given to all

credit, the current coin too, in consequence of the conviction of so

many persons and the sale of their property, being locked up in the

imperial treasury or the public exchequer. To meet this, the Senate

had directed that every creditor should have two-thirds his capital

secured on estates in Italy. Creditors however were suing for

payment in full, and it was not respectable for persons when sued to

break faith. So, at first, there were clamorous meetings and

importunate entreaties; then noisy applications to the praetor's

court. And the very device intended as a remedy, the sale and purchase

of estates, proved the contrary, as the usurers had hoarded up all

their money for buying land. The facilities for selling were

followed by a fall of prices, and the deeper a man was in debt, the

more reluctantly did he part with his property, and many were

utterly ruined. The destruction of private wealth precipitated the

fall of rank and reputation, till at last the emperor interposed his

aid by distributing throughout the banks a hundred million

sesterces, and allowing freedom to borrow without interest for three

years, provided the borrower gave security to the State in land to

double the amount. Credit was thus restored, and gradually private

lenders were found. The purchase too of estates was not carried out

according to the letter of the Senate's decree, rigour at the

outset, as usual with such matters, becoming negligence in the end.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

From what I have been reading I gather this was caused by the end of a long building boom under Augustus, the Banks loaning had been investing their gains in land and property, but the huge building program work had dried up under Tiberius reducing the velocity and supply of money. Then and there was a sudden event, the enforcement of an existing law that required "cash backing for real estate loans" - I think the senate enforced the banks to hold more cash on deposit for their outstanding loans, it is not entirely clear. Anyway how ever it happened there was a sudden credit crisis and many banks and private investors were forced to liquidate assets in order to comply with the requirements at first and then to pay off loans to other institutions as they were called in - the property market crashed. Tiberius was forced to provide liquidity to the credit markets - 100 million sestercies is about £1.5 billion if such comparisons are possible.

 

 

It must have been a major event. Tactius and Suetonius both record it over 50 years after it took place, and Cassius Dio nearly 200 years. It all seems rather familiar.

 

And there was I trying to write an essay on the Roman Economy for my History BA.

[G0ldfinger]

Good stuff (from the thread linked to above).

 

The Romans mined silver, gold and copper on an industrial scale like no other until the 19th Century - the Rio Tinto valley in Spain is scared by their workings on a truely epic scale. The used a great deal of machinery to do it, water powered ore crushers, people power cranes etc etc. The only thing they were missing was steam power. They were not a pre-industrial society but a proto-industrial one.

 

Much of the money went to the far east in trade in luxuries. Pliny the Elder complained that there balance of payments deficit to India and China was amounting to no less that 100 million sectercies a year via Alexandria - I am not kidding you.

[qwerty]

SteveNetwriter I read an interesting argument ,but I cannot find it now, that during the last gold bull market the POG never returned to its 200 day ma but that it always corrected to the 50 day ma.

 

It would be interesting to see if the recent/long term chart supports this?.

 

Unfortunately I am hopeless at charting

[Steve Netwriter]

SteveNetwriter I read an interesting argument ,but I cannot find it now, that during the last gold bull market the POG never returned to its 200 day ma but that it always corrected to the 50 day ma.

 

It would be interesting to see if the recent/long term chart supports this?.

 

Unfortunately I am hopeless at charting

 

Hmmm, I think that was started by Frizzers article in Moneyweek. He did a chart and I went off to look to see what happened back in the 70s.

If you give me a few minutes, I'll go look for it and maybe do an update chart.

 

My guess is that it's rising above the 200dma, but I don't know about the 50 yet.....back soon.

[Steve Netwriter]

I don't actually look at moving averages.

 

Here's a daily chart from http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gol...d=p45596489108#

so you can always check it yourself.

 

 

 

But it's odd that the 50mda is different on the weekly chart.

 

 

I'll now go find the thread on it.....

[Steve Netwriter]

Well, that took a while !

It's on page 9 of the 2nd half of 2007 thread !!!!

 

Gold Comments - for 2nd half of 2007, Market moves, comments, hopes and fears

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....2071&st=160

 

There are quite a few posts on the subject from there.

 

Is that the one you mean ?

[Billy]

Yes, basically that's it.

 

Once the seasonal upthrust is one of the way,

I expect a retracement, a $850 would be the ideal target. But a higher figure, such as $930 or so,

is also a decent target

 

Welcome to GEI. I look forward to more posts.

 

Member OneThousand has just registered

 

 

Hi Dr B,

 

I don't get your general analysis at all.

 

I think it is VERY dangerous, especially for newbies.

 

Let's look at this logically.

 

1. Do you believe we are in new territory, with an ongoing systemic banking collapse?

 

My proof is here - (varying according to whim - say from 1 -10 on any scale you might imagine? 1 being Northern Rock, from a UK perspective, add up the scale for Carlyle and Bear Stearns - add in all the (IMO confirmed) rumours of other dead banks ... GS and many many other banks worldwide, all trying to hide their bankruptcies until aboslutely FORCED too - you will notice for example with BS (how appropriate) that they LIED at circa 170 until their stock went to ZERO- they lied, all the corporate banks lie, take it as given.

 

If you DO believe in 1 (above), then your analysis is wrong. Gold cannot and will not correct back during any time this year to any prior seasonal norm. The only way it can correct back to an artificial number is through fraud and illegal manipulation of the markets.

 

2. If you DON'T believe we are in new territory, then your rather lazy prognostications of 850 or 930 as per seasonal 'norms' make sense.

[G0ldfinger]

Roubini on the moral hazard aspect of the Bear Stearns bailout. He is quite in line with Jim Rogers.

 

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

The Fed has no idea of which other primary dealers may be insolvent as it does not supervise and regulate those primary dealers that are not banks. But it is treating this crisis – the most severe financial crisis in the US since the Great Depression – as if it was purely a liquidity crisis. By lending massive amounts to potentially insolvent institutions that it does not supervise or regulate and that may be insolvent the Fed is taking serious financial risks and seriously exacerbate moral hazard distortions. Here you have highly leveraged non bank financial institutions that made reckless investments and lending, had extremely poor risk management and altogether disregarded liquidity risks; some may be insolvent but now the Fed is providing them with a blank check for unlimited amounts. This is a most radical action and a signal of how severe the crisis of the banking system and non-bank shadow financial system is. This is the worst US financial crisis since the Great Depression and the Fed is treating it as if it was only a liquidity crisis. But this is not just a liquidity crisis; it is rather a credit and insolvency crisis. And it is not the job of the Fed to bail out insolvent non bank financial institutions. If a bail out should occur this is a fiscal policy action that should be decided by Congress after the relevant equity holders have been wiped out and senior management fired without golden parachutes and huge severance packages.

[Billy]

Roubini on the moral hazard aspect of the Bear Stearns bailout. He is quite in line with Jim Rogers.

 

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

 

 

I am a seasoned trader. I don't trade gold or silver any more now, stopped a while ago, any and all trades from now on are simple Au to Ag (and vice versa) balancing according to the ratio - trading these two beasts in the ***best set-up EVER*** to make you FU****G RICH is a huge no-no. Buy strong and keep LOOOOONG - I just wish I had easy access to more capital right now and I would go all in at current prices - as I know I will double it and quadruple it and much more in the years to come - all my otc capital is now in gold and especially silver bullion, in my own house and own safe, no middlemen, no BS, no capital gains tax, no crapola with share certificates and perth mint certificates and kitco monopoly money, KISS is really essential when riding this bull.

[headmelter]

If the FED cuts by 1bps tomorrow what effect is it likely to have on gold?

[Steve Netwriter]

Buy strong and keep LOOOOONG

 

I love it

[Steve Netwriter]

OK, here's an update of the 14 month moving average chart:

 

 

 

And this is a new one using daily prices, with a 50 day moving avarage (which hopefully is 10 weeks !):

 

 

 

If anyone has the data for 2001 to 2020, could you PM me

[Steve Netwriter]

For you guys with GBP:

 

[Billy]

Top post by the regular; doubtless to be met with a 'get lost then' reposte by the hardly-moderate moderators. They are trying to 'make light' of the shotgun blast they gave themselves to the foot now, but reading between the lines they are papping themselves at the prospect of being left with a forum of 90% newbies on one side and RB on the other.

 

Edit: As I said, between the lines they are papping it - despite 'washing his hands' of the thread, Der Oldher will 'try re-opening it in a few days'. I'm not sure if Swarfega will remove Gold dust?

 

Edit 2: Sorry to whine on about this, but it gets my goat. CTT has just justified the banishment of the Gold thread because in a poll 'only a 144 votes cast and a membership of nearly 10,000' - the poll actually showed only 19% of these approved the de-facto censorship of Gold, considering the chain-of-consciousness pap that occupies the main forum.

 

He knows full well most of these members are inactive. Hell, most of them have probably been banned for whistling on a Tuesday, or other crimes.

 

 

Let it implode. Almost all of us here have done our UTMOST at HPC, here, and at other places in order to educate and HELP the masses - CGNAO is a prime example, and Goldfinger - they are BOTH doing, for whatever reasons, their UTMOST to disseminate the truth as they see it.

 

HPC will suffer as a result. Frankly, any numpties in the housing market just about crawling to HPC ***NOW*** will deserve all they get.

 

Ditto gold IMHO.

 

Let Red Kharma keep on shorting, and let the old bozos running HPC keep reminiscing about ovaltine and bingo and fish 'n' chips.

[Billy]

Anyone think Silver will now sustain around the $20 level without further short term falls..?

 

 

Yes me.

[Steve Netwriter]

If anyone claims to know the future, refer them to this:

 

http://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/2008survey.pdf

 

It's quite interesting to see how many experts can get it so wrong

 

Quite an interesting read though.

[Billy]

Today we saw what many, but especially Jim Sinclair, try to tell the more recent goldbugs: the swings will get more violent, downwards and upwards. Trading this will become next to impossible. The only people who will profit in this enviroment will be longterm holders and brokers. The Shorterz will not give up so easily. While I think they will get wiped out, the only way to avoid pain will be to totally ignore them, and maybe buy the dips.

 

Still haven't decided what I will do with the little cash I have leftover. Euros (will have bills in EUR soon), silver or mining stocks? Difficult. But from a more fundamental perspective, the stocks seem to be a screaming buy.

 

 

Agreed. I hope Red Kharma loses his mummy's allowance of 50 pounds a week to play with. I have been burned badly by gold and silver miners over the last year or son, and in this NEW TERRITORY we are in, see all recent banking collapses that have been made public (multiply the many many more that are dead in the water and are being supported by the fed/boe etc printing presses) I don't trust any paper money.

 

I am all in, personally held bullion.

 

You can make funky pyramids and coffee tables with 100oz JM or Engel bars, LOL!!!