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End of month buying op when RSI cools off and price moves to 22 dma?

 

Just a theory I've got......

 

6.png

 

I can't see the picture, but patience is a virtue my friend!

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I can't see the picture, but patience is a virtue my friend!

 

34hgg12.jpg

 

Just a theory, but my learning on this forum tells me that :

 

+ Gold is over overbought at the mo

+ Nothing goes up in a straight line

+ look for cycles

 

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34hgg12.jpg

 

Just a theory, but my learning on this forum tells me that :

 

+ Gold is over overbought at the mo

+ Nothing goes up in a straight line

+ look for cycles

So when does your learning tell you that gold won't be overbought?

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34hgg12.jpg

 

Just a theory, but my learning on this forum tells me that :

 

+ Gold is over overbought at the mo

+ Nothing goes up in a straight line

+ look for cycles

Agreed nothing goes up in a straight line, but also remember that we could be in the middle of a commercial signal failure. This could just be another desperate attempt by the cartel to get prices down, that will be bought back up them same as every other day for weeks now (a cycle?).

 

Could it possibly be that India just got their order for more IMF gold filled? They were saying they would buy if the price they offered was taken up.

 

 

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34hgg12.jpg

 

Just a theory, but my learning on this forum tells me that :

 

+ Gold is over overbought at the mo

+ Nothing goes up in a straight line

+ look for cycles

I posted some charts a few days ago here that suggested $1500 gold by the end of the first quarter next year. I posted it as I couldn't quite believe it myself and wanted to gauge the reaction. I had thought it looked too optimistic... I posted some dollar charts on the GEI Trading academy thread that suggest that the dollar could be at a very important juncture.

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I'm appreciating all your thoughts here w.r.t. my predicament - I'm contemplating whether to buy more at the moment with newly-acquired funds (or stay on the subs bench a bit longer).

 

I'm worried how hot RSI is, and also wish the £/$ exchange rate was more favourable for buying.

 

I know you guys are talking fundamentals and I am talking technicals today. I'm not a big technical man - I'm just reminded of the last time I was in a 'lots of new funds' scenario - I bought big at $960 in early 2008 and sat underwater for quite a while.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm appreciating all your thoughts here w.r.t. my predicament - I'm contemplating whether to buy more at the moment with newly-acquired funds (or stay on the subs bench a bit longer).

 

I'm worried how hot RSI is, and also wish the £/$ exchange rate was more favourable for buying.

 

I know you guys are talking fundamentals and I am talking technicals today. I'm not a big technical man - I'm just reminded of the last time I was in a 'lots of new funds' scenario - I bought big at $960 in early 2008 and sat underwater for quite a while.

How about looking at it subjectively?

 

Consider what percentage of your worth is already in gold. How comfortable/ anxious are you about that percentage. Too much... not enough.... just right...

 

If you have a large percentage in bullion, then perhaps you can afford to wait. If you do not have much of a percentage in bullion then perhaps you could buy.

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- I bought big at $960 in early 2008 and sat underwater for quite a while.

 

now proved to be a good decision!

 

why not just spend half the funds now if you think it will drop in the future?

 

(personally, I'd probably wait to see what damage, if any, the Yanks can inflict today)

 

You can still buy gold on a Sunday :D

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I'm appreciating all your thoughts here w.r.t. my predicament - I'm contemplating whether to buy more at the moment with newly-acquired funds (or stay on the subs bench a bit longer).

 

I'm worried how hot RSI is, and also wish the £/$ exchange rate was more favourable for buying.

 

I know you guys are talking fundamentals and I am talking technicals today. I'm not a big technical man - I'm just reminded of the last time I was in a 'lots of new funds' scenario - I bought big at $960 in early 2008 and sat underwater for quite a while.

 

But that taught you a very valuable lesson. Do more sitting, and less tinkering.

 

I personally use the Williams %R indicator - but with RSI or Williams you need to be patient (days and weeks). Have a look at the Gold TTT thread and I think we can talk.

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While there's cause for a price fall, I'm much less worried about it this time than previous - maybe because I've been accumulating for >18 months now.

 

As has been said, nothing goes up in a straight line. In fact, it's par for the course to have a dip on the leg up.

 

Think of this as a lochan halfway up a mountain. Somewhere to take in the view, consider the path that's been taken so far, and the remainder of the climb ahead :)

 

post-1686-1259326952_thumb.jpg

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While there's cause for a price fall, I'm much less worried about it this time than previous - maybe because I've been accumulating for >18 months now.

 

As has been said, nothing goes up in a straight line. In fact, it's par for the course to have a dip on the leg up.

 

Think of this as a lochan halfway up a mountain. Somewhere to take in the view, consider the path that's been taken so far, and the remainder of the climb ahead :)

 

post-1686-1259326952_thumb.jpg

Yes, even when you are climbing up a mountain there are times when you have to descend for a while.

 

The trend is your friend.

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Where do you think a pullback will take us to?

Depending on the time of the pullback, I would be looking for £590-odd. Unsure as to wether we can break the uptrend line given the fundamentals of Turdling,

I can imagine (50% confident) gold hitting a low of between GBP 500-600 over next 6-12 months. So 10-25% down from here.

I am more confident (80%) that we've just seen a short term top.

I made the rather strong prediction 2 weeks ago, when gold was at USD 1120 and GBP 675. The 6-7% further increase we've had since then really feels overdone to me (was that the commercial signal failure?).

 

It seems that after Dubai and the options expiry, the PPT are now choosing today to start their fight back. They've even taken a big chunk out of the oil price early this morning. I suspect we'll see even stronger downward pressure when the Yanks wake up.

 

Mrs BigT and I decided today, however, not to sell, but ride it out and buy more if/when we get down to sub-GBP 600 again.

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the PPT are now choosing today to start their fight back. They've even taken a big chunk out of the oil price early this morning. I suspect we'll see even stronger downward pressure when the Yanks wake up.

They want a strong Dollar now do they? Why?

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Why did gold stay at exactly the same price between 18:00 and 22:00 GMT yesterday?

New York access market closed for Thanksgiving?

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They want a strong Dollar now do they? Why?

 

[sarcasm on]

Maybe Timmy and Bernanke had a plan all along? Maybe they were just pretending to bail out all their mates?

 

The money will be burnt and no-one will be wiser?

[/sarcasm off]

 

:lol:

 

Now look at the ECB, when you Trichet talk about price stability and ensuring that the wealth of millions of people is maintained. If you had to believe in one peice of paper over another which one would you choose?

 

I vote gold though...time will come when people will want to see how much gold, silver or even tungsten you have, before any deals are done.

 

The paperbugs are finished.

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[sarcasm on]

Maybe Timmy and Bernanke had a plan all along? Maybe they were just pretending to bail out all their mates?

 

The money will be burnt and no-one will be wiser?

[/sarcasm off]

 

:lol:

 

Now look at the ECB, when you Trichet talk about price stability and ensuring that the wealth of millions of people is maintained. If you had to believe in one peice of paper over another which one would you choose?

 

I vote gold though...time will come when people will want to see how much gold, silver or even tungsten you have, before any deals are done.

 

The paperbugs are finished.

LOL

 

Gold backed credit. Just like the old days.

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They want a strong Dollar now do they? Why?

No,

they want the USD and the GBP to depreciate in a controlled manner. Both are about 25-30% down from their longer term levels, and I think there needs to be the same fall yet again over the next few years to give these nations a fighting chance of paying off their debt. Any short term bounce in the USD is a consequence of increasing risk aversion.

 

Instead,

the PPT probably wants gold to fall in value from its current levels. From USD 950 to USD 1050 the rise in gold was just a reflection of the falling dollar (as I kept pointing out, the same was happening for oil). But from USD 1050 to USD 1150 the rise in gold has been a genuine rise in PMs, whilst oil has been stable or falling. Today seems like a deliberate smack down in gold and oil, and not a rise in the dollar. If the dollar rises in parallel, that will just help the PPT in the attack on PoG.

 

 

 

 

 

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No,

they want the USD and the GBP to depreciate in a controlled manner. Both are about 25-30% down from their longer term levels, and I think there needs to be the same fall yet again over the next few years to give these nations a fighting chance of paying off their debt. Any short term bounce in the USD is a consequence of increasing risk aversion.

 

Instead,

the PPT probably wants gold to fall in value from its current levels. From USD 950 to USD 1050 the rise in gold was just a reflection of the falling dollar (as I kept pointing out, the same was happening for oil). But from USD 1050 to USD 1150 the rise in gold has been a genuine rise in PMs, whilst oil has been stable or falling. Today seems like a deliberate smack down in gold and oil, and not a rise in the dollar. If the dollar rises in parallel, that will just help the PPT in the attack on PoG.

Aah PPT conspiracy, they want to drive down the price of gold so the Chindians can buy it cheap? :lol:

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The general rumour was excess liquidity wasn't finding it's way in to the PM market, given the fall we've just seen, I beg to differ. I am primarily a funamentalist until I see market stabililty and then I get the charts out again, but whilst there's extreme volatility in either direction, I think the charts are mostly unreliable. Charts can't predict market collapse.

 

I would bet every ounce I have, we will not see the same situation/sell off we saw last year, despite what people say here, the situation has moved on. Remember volatility was always going to increase as we get closer to the final conclusion, however with that in mind, I would wait until exactly whatever this is calms down. IMHO $1K is the floor, so don't expect anything below that, certainly I think the Indian and Chinese (etc) central banks think the same. Going against creditor central banks is not a position I'm prepared to take. One final point, I feel the situation has accelerated considerably in the last 10 weeks, this flight to safety by the CB's worries me, why now, what do they know that we don't...

 

Good luck with your decision.

 

I'm appreciating all your thoughts here w.r.t. my predicament - I'm contemplating whether to buy more at the moment with newly-acquired funds (or stay on the subs bench a bit longer).

 

I'm worried how hot RSI is, and also wish the £/$ exchange rate was more favourable for buying.

 

I know you guys are talking fundamentals and I am talking technicals today. I'm not a big technical man - I'm just reminded of the last time I was in a 'lots of new funds' scenario - I bought big at $960 in early 2008 and sat underwater for quite a while.

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Not sure where to put this.

 

Are Ukraine Black Death Cases Result of IMF Loans?

 

The Ukraine Government has declared a state of emergency and medical examiners describe results of autopsies on dead patients in chilling terms that recall the Black Death descriptions from the Fourteenth Century in Venice. While everyone is calling it “Swine Flu” and the WHO using it to spread their panic and untested vaccines, there is strong evidence that the deaths—almost all from pulmonary conditions—are from a rising incidence of Tuberculosis (TB). Now a Cambridge University study shows that there is a close correlation between rise in TB and the severe austerity measures that go with IMF loans. Are the Ukraine ‘Black Death’ cases the result of Ukraine’s IMF loans?

 

While attention is turned to the non-proven H1N1 as cause of a recent wave of illnesses and even some deaths across Ukraine, few if any have bothered to look at the public health consequences of Ukraine’s program with the International Monetary Fund. When the global financial crisis erupted into a systemic crisis in September 2008, one of the countries most devastated was Ukraine, where foreign lending had created an untenable speculative bubble that burst with a vengeance leaving the Ukraine currency falling like a stone and bankruptcies everywhere in one of Europe’s poorest countries.

 

In November 2008 Ukraine applied to the IMF in Washington for an emergency $16.4 billion loan. The loan is being spoon-fed to the government in chunks of several billion to insure the Government follows the strict IMF “conditionalities” demanded by Washington. The purpose of the IMF loan is explicitly to stabilize the Ukraine currency and support the Central Bank, and not to help the economy or the population come through the crisis. The IMF argues that if the currency restabilizes, then foreign investors will return. That is a fairy tale at best. But in the process, the IMF is demanding savage cuts in pension benefits, public services including health services.

 

There is where the link between IMF loans and an explosion of TB cases converge.

 

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OMG

 

This should be clased as ethnic cleansing. Where are all the good men?

Apparently half of Latvia's hospitals have been closed. :(

 

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