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Bank crisis shows need to expect the very worst: study

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Two years of economic and market turmoil mean that investors cannot ignore the chances of even the most extreme events like global depression or a killer pandemic, a leading investment consultancy said on Monday.

 

Watson Wyatt said in its study, "Extreme Risks," that investors should prepare for everything from currency and banking crises to trade protectionism and even the end of capitalism.

 

The firm said it had drawn up the list to underline that risk management in investing cannot afford to ignore threats even in the bottom 5 percent of possible events and recommended ways of hedging -- a form of insurance -- against them.

 

"The events of the last two years have demonstrated that risk management cannot afford to stop at the 95th percentile. We need to find a way to include very unlikely, but potentially high impact, events," Watson Wyatt said in the report.......

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sorry, posted this on the 'clawing' thread by mistake.. oh well, I am sooo tired zzzzz....

 

can't do much today, been travelling since 4am this morning (just about when gold began to tank!) However, seems to me it bounced nicely of the 20-DMA.

CGNAO said they'd try. Well, today I think we saw a bit of a fight back.

goldbounce.jpg

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Richard over at weightoncoin is doing a good 3 day deal on 1oz 2003 britannias incase anyone is interested.

 

2003 1oz Gold BRITANNIA - Special Limited Offer - 3 DAYS ONLY

 

FIXED PRICE - £749.00 - LAST 40 COINS

 

Richard Anderson - Director & Principal Dearler

 

Weighton Coin Wonders

 

Only 13 coins left now. Thats 27oz in 24 hours, £20,223 by one small dealer, whose service is excellent but prices can sometimes be a bit higher compaired to CID.

 

Lots of people out there willing to pay for physical even tho we are at historic highs, that has to tell us all something.

I dont think we should sweat to much about the $30 fall today. As the commentators have being pointing out for years, this is a gold bull, get use to the swings. We will see $100 swings per day in the future before this ends.

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On days like this, when the gold doubters pop their corks, I look at the 5 year charts. I often look at the 5 year charts as the noise is removed.

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On days like this, when the gold doubters pop their corks, I look at the 5 year charts. I often look at the 5 year charts as the noise is removed.

Today was very bullish IMO, gold was targeted hard by the cartel and came back convincingly.

 

There was a very large 193,000 long contracts that were open on the comex yesterday, Monday is the first day that holders can notify for delivery. The comex inventories hold 20,000 contracts in inventories, so something had to be done to discourage the contract holders.

 

It will be very interesting to see the open interest on the comex after todays action.

 

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The Tide of History and The Spirit of Human Resilience

 

Why do so many people continue to turn their noses up at an investment with returns like those listed below? And not only that, why do small groups continue to aggressively attack the very notion that it is genuine, a real trend, a development with appeal across many nations and people, a sustained market trend that is telling us something?

 

Returns, I might add, that are supported by very strong fundamentals of supply and demand. Coming off a twenty year bear market in which supply was diminished, and burdened by years of central bank selling that seemed to be non-profitseeking and bureaucratically determined to crush any rallies, the market turned off the bottom in 2001 and has barely looked back since except for brief corrections.

 

"Since the start of the decade gold has been in a strong secular bull market in which it has had only one negative year (2001) while the S&P 500 has had four. Gold’s strong performance has produced a cumulative return of 311.54% for an annualized return of 15.18% per annum this decade. In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has been in a secular bear market in which its cumulative return has been a negative 24.52% for a negative 2.77% annualized return. While gold has had periods of volatility (risk), what the above numbers indicate is that gold has had a superior investment profile relative to the stock market.." Chris Puplava, Gold and Newton's First Law of Motion

Central banks are now net buyers in the aggregate for the first time in many, many years. This is a significant change since they were a major source of marginal supply. The post Bretton Woods dollar regime created by Nixon in 1971 is shaking hard, trembling the foundations of a world currency system based on financial engineering, empire, and oil.

 

When the unthinking mob starts buying, and gold and silver are no longer considered eccentric but essential, and local shops and banks start buying and selling the metal, then it will be the time to sell. But probably not before......

 

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Why would I kid myself? I couldn't give a monkey's chuff what the hedgies do. I ain't selling mine! It's great having something with no counterparty risk. You keep playing with your fiat and electronic digits.

 

That gets my vote FoR THE PoST oF THE DAY. :lol::lol::lol:

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Is A "Commercial Signal Failure" Upside Explosion Coming In Gold?

 

A commercial signal failure occurs in the commodities market when the amount of demand for physical delivery of a commodity - in this case gold - exceeds the ability to physically deliver the available supply by those obligated to deliver. In this case that would be the parties who have sold short the Comex December gold futures contract (primarily Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, HSBC and Deutsche Bank). If this does indeed occur, the price of gold and silver will do a veritable moon-shot in price.

 

The situation in December gold on the Comex could get quite interesting. As of today's trade date, there are 94,544 open December gold futures contracts. Anyone holding one of those contracts who does not or can not take delivery (1 contract = 100 ozs, or roughly $118,000) of Comex gold needs to have that postion sold by the end of trading Friday. Tomorrow the Comex is closed and Friday will be a low volumn day. The reason for this is that Monday is what is known as "first notice day," which means that anyone long a gold contact (or silver) can be tagged with a delivery notice.

 

Now, the amount of gold being reported by the Comex as "registered" (not that we trust that number) - which is the amount that is available for delivery - is a little over 2.1 million ozs. If o/i (open interest) on Monday is any where over 21,000 contracts (2.1 million ounces), December could be a very interesting month for gold. In other words, if the open interest at the close of trading Friday is greater than 21,000 contracts, the Comex has a delivery problem. The price will go parabolic.

 

With the open interest at 94,000+ right now, and with Friday being a very low volumn day, we can expect that the number of contracts that potentially stand for delivery will far exceed the amount of gold available for delivery. Now, contracts can be tendered for cash instead of gold, and someone holding a contract can sell it after 1st notice day. But, anyone holding after Friday must have an account fully funded to accept delivery because, in theory, every single long position on Monday could be tagged with a delivery notice (this never happens but theoretically it is possible). We'll have to wait until Friday afternoon to know for sure, but I suspect the relentless move up in gold prices this week are sniffing out the possibility of a delivery issue as described above.

 

Two more interesting items of note, and events which confirm the growing demand for physical delivery and possession of gold. First, it was announced today that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka purchased another 10 tons of gold from the IMF. They said it was a move to diversify reserves, which means they are dumping U.S. dollars. Here's the link: Sri Lanka Buys More IMF Gold. And India has expressed an interest to buy the rest of the IMF gold for sale: India Interested In Rest Of The IMF Gold.

 

It should be clear to anyone paying attention to what is going on in the gold (and silver) market that there is an aggressive movement by central banks, investment funds and wealthy individuals to take physical custody of large quantities of gold. There is also a massive imbalance between the actual supply of physical gold available for delivery and the enormous amount of paper liabilities for gold. These liabilities include Comex futures, OTC derivatives, leased gold and, of course, the high likelihood that GLD is largely a massive gold leasing operation. The paper Ponzi scheme in gold is starting to unravel and this is being reflected by the price behavior in gold, despite tame inflation numbers coming out of the Government.

 

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Today was very bullish IMO, gold was targeted hard by the cartel and came back convincingly.

 

There was a very large 193,000 long contracts that were open on the comex yesterday, Monday is the first day that holders can notify for delivery. The comex inventories hold 20,000 contracts in inventories, so something had to be done to discourage the contract holders.

 

It will be very interesting to see the open interest on the comex after todays action.

 

SIR PIXEl8R sifting the wheat from the chaff. ;)

 

BLD071909.jpg

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Yep, keeping some serious powder dry here. The Dubai debt crisis has made the market nervous... wouldn't take much more to get the risk averse trade under way. Starting to raise dollars today, Yen are getting a bit pricey now.

 

Silver is back to where it was six months ago as priced in Yen.

 

YYYYeen.gif

 

Fair play on that call romans CREDIT where it is due that was prior to the dislocation this morning.

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Interesting table showing Government Support for Financial Assets and Liabilities Announced in 2008 and Soon Thereafter ($ in billions).

 

Total support given = $13,903 Billion.

 

http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/examinatio...upervision.html

 

 

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Today was very bullish IMO, gold was targeted hard by the cartel and came back convincingly.

 

There was a very large 193,000 long contracts that were open on the comex yesterday, Monday is the first day that holders can notify for delivery. The comex inventories hold 20,000 contracts in inventories, so something had to be done to discourage the contract holders.

 

It will be very interesting to see the open interest on the comex after todays action.

 

Yes very bullish Sir Pixel8r.

 

We have a huge white candle on the monthly, we also have 4 white soldiers on the weekly pattern (basicly we finished each week higher) and we have a huge hanging man pattern. The previous day was a doji, which is soemtimes called an evening star.

 

I will wait for confirmation of the opening price on Sunday/Monday to ensure that open is higher than today's close. If so, that is very bullish.

 

As I scan across all the markets I can see that we either have doji's or hammers. Again, this means the actual open is crucial to see which way we will go.

 

DYOR!

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Interesting table showing Government Support for Financial Assets and Liabilities Announced in 2008 and Soon Thereafter ($ in billions).

 

Total support given = $13,903 Billion.

 

http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/examinatio...upervision.html

 

 

I feel we must not think of this market in too much detail.

 

I woke up this morning and found the market down $ 60 per oz suddenly in a few minutes. Why?, I don't know now, but there must have been very massive selling, and a huge trigger of stops all the way down. Many spivs will have been temprarily cleared out.

 

I also notice a very radical increase in volatility (which is still increasing) in the very recent past, and time seems to be speeding up, just for the moment, in the market.

 

For just now, I think it is worth leaving overnight buy orders down 4.75% - 7% to catch these sorts of moves - the sudden decline from 1196 to 1137 was such a move (4.75%), and, if one is a trader, also leave overnight orders to sell something up 8%.

 

We have a Mandelbrot market! Volatility is well beyond random and the recent norm.

 

LTA

 

 

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Yes very bullish Sir Pixel8r.

 

We have a huge white candle on the monthly, we also have 4 white soldiers on the weekly pattern (basicly we finished each week higher) and we have a huge hanging man pattern. The previous day was a doji, which is soemtimes called an evening star.

 

I will wait for confirmation of the opening price on Sunday/Monday to ensure that open is higher than today's close. If so, that is very bullish.

 

As I scan across all the markets I can see that we either have doji's or hammers. Again, this means the actual open is crucial to see which way we will go.

 

DYOR!

I feel that over the next few weeks there will be reports of delivery failures and that will cause the price to spike over $100 in a single day. The cartel must have made lots more promises that they can't possibly keep today.

 

Are we going to see the full effect of CSF over december, is the question?

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You mean you still own some of that toilet paper stuff to buy with?? :lol:

 

Indeed. I'm in the infortunate position of being paid in toilet paper. I asked for gold coin but they rejected my request.

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So far, China has just 1.7pc of its reserves in gold, or 34m troy ounces. I was told by a top Chinese official that they are buying on the dips so as not to crowd out the market

I bet they are buying all that scrap / broken gold from gullible western credit junkies.

Also, I found this, which I like as an analysis by Ian McAvity!

 

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26133396

"November 27, 2009 -- "Gold bubble? I regard such talk as

nonsense . . . . Gold is about 52% higher than the peak weekly

average price of January 1980. The US CPI is 177% higher, US

M-2 Money Supply is 464% higher, and the S&P is 892%

higher. I don't think it untoward to suggest gold is badly lagging

a number of important yardsticks and at theses levels has some

catching up to do." From Ian McAvity's DELIBERATIONS

(Iris Ltd., PO Box 40097, Tucson, AZ 85717)

 

 

EDIT: Comex open interest in "futures" and "options on gold futures" can be got here on monday:

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/...t=dailybulletin

(select "METAL" and then "Gold").. look at the Futures.

For reference, here is the one from 25 Nov. (note Open Interest declined to 44,366 contracts)

goldFutures26Nov2009.jpg

 

and this relates nicely to Pixel8r's post:

The situation in December gold on the Comex could get quite interesting. As of today's trade date, there are 94,544 open December gold futures contracts. Anyone holding one of those contracts who does not or can not take delivery (1 contract = 100 ozs, or roughly $118,000) of Comex gold needs to have that postion sold by the end of trading Friday. Tomorrow the Comex is closed and Friday will be a low volumn day. The reason for this is that Monday is what is known as "first notice day," which means that anyone long a gold contact (or silver) can be tagged with a delivery notice.

 

Now, the amount of gold being reported by the Comex as "registered" (not that we trust that number) - which is the amount that is available for delivery - is a little over 2.1 million ozs. If o/i (open interest) on Monday is any where over 21,000 contracts (2.1 million ounces), December could be a very interesting month for gold. In other words, if the open interest at the close of trading Friday is greater than 21,000 contracts, the Comex has a delivery problem. The price will go parabolic.

 

IMO, they simply had to do something on friday - and we saw that attempt. Let's see if it scared the longs?

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