signofthetimes Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 Are people still buying at these prices or waiting for further pullbacks? I'm still buying with any leftover cash. I remember thinking the same back in June 08 when gold was £450 /oz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markinspain Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 It's just like Christmas ain't it? Yes, I find myself 'Clawing at the sky' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 One part of me wants to say 3, one part of me wants to say 5. Let me guess... you hedge your bets... then hedge your hedges also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 EDIT: Comex open interest in "futures" and "options on gold futures" can be got here on monday: http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/...t=dailybulletin (select "METAL" and then "Gold").. look at the Futures. For reference, here is the one from 25 Nov. (note Open Interest declined to 44,366 contracts) and this relates nicely to Pixel8r's post: IMO, they simply had to do something on friday - and we saw that attempt. Let's see if it scared the longs? Now, this is interesting... can anyone correct me if I am wrong? Last night's report shows a massive open interest for DEC09 of 13,359 (x100 for a comex contract = 1,335,900 oz), and monday (yesterday) was the first notice day; meaning all these guys could have been tagged with a delivery notice. Comex inventory is only about 2m (2,013,274 at 27/11/09) ounces, so this will be interesting to watch their Gold stocks (here): http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/Gold_Stocks.xls Comex report for Gold futures: 30/11/2009: COMMERCIAL SIGNAL FAILURE ANYONE?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 1, 2009 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 ... meaning all these guys could have been tagged with a delivery notice. Could have, would have, should have. Let's wait and see. Most people don't "get" that they should take delivery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosco Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 Another Paulson & Co , gold +ve article...... http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/11/john-pa...ng-against.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 Another Paulson & Co , gold +ve article...... http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/11/john-pa...ng-against.html They will pursue this by investing in gold equities that are levered to the price of gold, as well as derivatives on the price of gold. Can Paulson be successful on two big bets back to back? We'll have to wait and see. It will be interesting to see how gold equities play out in comparison to bullion. I think everyone would agree there is more risk in equities.... especially in this macro-environment. If we get another crash, I'd like to buy some equities... as a speculative interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 From the above article The inflation versus deflation argument rolls on and is shaping up to be quite the investment battlefield. With his gold hedge fund launch, John Paulson has planted himself firmly in the inflation camp. In the other corner, PIMCO's bond vigilante Bill Gross is betting on deflation. While the outcome could still be a few years away, it's interesting to see the wagers and investment vehicles selected by various notable investors. Slowly but surely the prominent names in the industry are placing their bets. Which side are you on? Maybe you don't have to pick a side. The main thing is to be liquid [which would make Einhorn's strategy superior to Paulson's] As we've covered previously, hedge fund colleague David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital is positioning himself to benefit from the printing presses of the US and other governments. Einhorn is bullish on gold as well and has actually shifted from using the exchange traded fund GLD for his position to storing physical gold. So while Einhorn prefers physical gold instead of gold miners ala Paulson, the bottom line is they both have identified quantitative easing as a major inflationary threat going forward. As such, they are positioning themselves to benefit by what they deem to be the most beneficial way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 Another Paulson & Co , gold +ve article...... http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/11/john-pa...ng-against.html Also from the above article - gold is such a small market (market cap wise) that others following the Poulson meister will simply drive the price up ! Regardless of gold's potential price appreciation, Paulson has already won on this trade. Why, you ask? Well, nowadays John Paulson is an investment icon and everyone wants to invest with him. He is already in the trade in some of his other hedge funds and soon will be with his gold fund. Not to mention, numerous other prominent hedgies are singing the praises of gold as of late. As others begin to filter into the trade and warm up to its potential, Paulson's play benefits. As our friend on Twitter mojakus puts it, Paulson can "ride the wave of wider recognition of the trade's merits. (It) doesn't really need to work out for him to mint it." Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/11/john-pa...l#ixzz0YRcbArS4 Me thinks that if we do not see another deflationary down swing soon, it is quite possible that gold shares may soon be well ahead of where they are now. But then again its when I think like this that the market turns round and bites me on the rear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 Also from the above article - gold is such a small market (market cap wise) that others following the Poulson meister will simply drive the price up ! Me thinks that if we do not see another deflationary down swing soon, it is quite possible that gold shares may soon be well ahead of where they are now. But then again its when I think like this that the market turns round and bites me on the rear! The other thing is if the hedgies did all pile in, thinking it was a sure bet.... because of the perceived certitude of a hyper-inflationary outcome... and then there did happen to be a deflationary downdraft.. they would all pile out again. Hyper-volatility anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinbal Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 The other thing is if the hedgies did all pile in, thinking it was a sure bet.... because of the perceived certitude of a hyper-inflationary outcome... and then there did happen to be a deflationary downdraft.. they would all pile out again. Hyper-volatility anyone? Unless they had the foresight to "Hedge" their positions by "buying cheap Dollars"? Which I happen to think is a perfectly reasonable thing to do if you have a large position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 The other thing is if the hedgies did all pile in, thinking it was a sure bet.... because of the perceived certitude of a hyper-inflationary outcome... and then there did happen to be a deflationary downdraft.. they would all pile out again. Hyper-volatility anyone? If I was a trader that would be a bucking bonco I would wanna ride on the way up and short on the way down. As a mere mortal I am tempted to tag along with an ETF play(s) hoping to catch the turn. Difficult I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 Unless they had the foresight to "Hedge" their positions by "buying cheap Dollars"? Which I happen to think is a perfectly reasonable thing to do if you have a large position. Yep, the irony of it.... hedge funds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 If I was a trader that would be a bucking bonco I would wanna ride on the way up and short on the way down. As a mere mortal I am tempted to tag along with an ETF play(s) hoping to catch the turn. Difficult I know. Start raising some "hold your nose" dollars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mugwump boy Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 This might be a stupid question - please fell free to tell me, I'm keen to learn - but why did gold dip during the Dubai fall out last week? I thought gold rose during periods of uncertainty. Given that, this comment from CNN confuses me further... http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/01/markets/gold/ Gold hit record highs near $1,200 an ounce Tuesday, as dollar weakness and easing of Dubai debt fears helped the precious metal continue recovering from Friday's losses. Surely "easing of Dubai fears" should have caused a dip today (instead of the spike we've had) ... or is it a sign of just how many new speculators there are in the gold market at the moment, relatively speaking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 Surely "easing of Dubai fears" should have caused a dip today (instead of the spike we've had) ... or is it a sign of just how many new speculators there are in the gold market at the moment, relatively speaking? for answer see http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...good-94905.aspx and also the frizzers in moneyweek thread for updates http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...good-94905.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 This might be a stupid question - please fell free to tell me, I'm keen to learn - but why did gold dip during the Dubai fall out last week? I thought gold rose during periods of uncertainty. Given that, this comment from CNN confuses me further... Investors have largely bought into the idea of recovery, and then equities, with a little help from Uncle Ben. Yet, they are still wary of debt deflation. If we get another round of deleveraging then all markets will sell-off including gold. That gold was quick to dip on the Dubai news shows the price is vulnerable. Basically, investors are caught between a rock and a hard place. The rock is primarily ideological and is causing investors to spend [invest] under duress. Bernanke is increasing the monetary base.... if this in turn makes it into the money supply we have inflation.... the bogeyman of all investors. But then we also have the hard place of a macro-deflation where the level of debt is just too high and can no longer be sustained by slowly eroding asset values. In this kind of market the risk level has been cranked up to the nth degree and the investor can easily be squeezed.... it might not take much to spark a full on panic, and hence forced liquidation in near everything. Of course, gold would quickly recover as a prime liquid asset/currency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 This might be a stupid question - please fell free to tell me, I'm keen to learn - but why did gold dip during the Dubai fall out last week? I thought gold rose during periods of uncertainty. Given that, this comment from CNN confuses me further... Surely "easing of Dubai fears" should have caused a dip today (instead of the spike we've had) ... or is it a sign of just how many new speculators there are in the gold market at the moment, relatively speaking? the TFH view: it was totally timed over thanksgiving and the holiday in Dubai to shake out longs and reduce delivery strains on the Comex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 If you could consider gold as a stock, like GM or Coca Cola etc., what would be the rough comparison in terms of Gold's size as a 'company' i.e. relative to big firms like Microsoft? Or, for a better comparison since a lot of gold is bought and held by central banks etc., if you compare daily turnover of gold relative to a big firm's stock or a stock market, how does it compare? Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 USD 1201.20 EUR 794.41 Silver USD 19.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitkid Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20091201/tbs-g...-1-5268574.html Gold price storms to record above 1,200 dollars The price of gold reached above 1,200 dollars an ounce for the first time on Tuesday as a weak US currency pushed up demand for the precious metal viewed as a safe-haven investment, analysts said. Gold struck a record high 1,201.63 dollars an ounce on the London Bullion Market at 1639 GMT. It later pulled back slightly to stand at 1,199.65 dollars. Gold has struck historic peaks over recent days and weeks as the dollar drops against major rivals the euro and yen. "As ever, another painful week for the US currency saw new highs for gold," VTB Capital commodities analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said on Tuesday. In recent weeks, gold has smashed record after record also on the back of inflationary fears and increasing moves by central banks to diversify assets away from the greenback. The yellow metal, whose two main drivers are jewellery and investment buyers, has also won favour in the uncertain economic climate and fears of a mounting Dubai debt crisis. "Gold continues to benefit from an almost 'perfect storm' of weak currencies, minimal interest rates, fears about future inflation and fears about financial stability," said Capital Spreads analyst Simon Denham. "None of these worries looks like going away any time soon and so the march higher goes on." The weaker US currency makes gold cheaper for holders of rival currencies, stimulating demand for the metal and eventually lifting prices. Gold prices had also been driven higher after last week's purchase of IMF gold by Sri Lanka's central bank. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced it had sold 10 tonnes of gold to Sri Lanka's central bank for 375 million dollars as part of a restructuring of its financial resources. The record run also came after last week's newspaper report that India was mulling the purchase of more IMF gold reserves. "The overall sentiment on gold remains bullish, also spurred by rumours last week that India was ready to buy more IMF gold, according to an article in India's Financial Chronicle," said analyst Kryuchenkov. "The IMF declined to comment when asked by the media and we do believe it is just pure speculation at the moment." He added: "Sri Lanka bought 10 tonnes of the precious metal, also helping to stir up positive vibes yet again. "Granted, it was not much, but this was nevertheless supportive with increasing rhetoric over central bank diversifications and US inflation expectations still running high as we go into 2010." Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold meanwhile on Tuesday announced it had eliminated all of its hedges on the world's largest gold production and reserves, hoping to profit from rising gold prices. The gold hedges were contracts whereby Barrick -- the world's number one gold producer -- sold gold ounces it expected to produce in advance for a fixed price. In the meantime, if the price of gold increased, Barrick was obligated to sell its gold at the lower price or buy it in the marketplace at a higher price to meet its contractual obligations. Hedging is normally used to insulate companies from market price fluctuations and provide a level of financial stability for their operations. Barrick announced in September it would pull the plug on its remaining gold hedges, as it was not benefiting from any increase in the gold price, which is forecast to continue rising over the long term as deposits are depleted. "Our positive view on the gold price led us to accelerate the elimination of these contracts ahead of the schedule we had established," said Aaron Regent, Barrick's president and chief executive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitkid Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/...html?id=2289338 Gold hits record near US$1,200 as dollar slips Jan Harvey, Reuters Published: Tuesday, December 01, 2009 Reuters Investors had been encouraged by the strength of gold’s recovery after it fell to below US$1,140 an ounce last week, with the fall being met with strong fund buying. LONDON -- Gold hit record highs near US$1,200 an ounce on Tuesday as dollar weakness fuelled buying of the metal as an alternative asset, while investors speculating on more gains were cheered by recovery from last week's setback. Spot gold hit a peak of US$1,198.70 an ounce and was bid at US$1,190.20 an ounce at 1315 GMT, against US$1,179.10 late in New York on Monday. "The fact that we are seeing the dollar weaken is helping to drive gold," said Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank. He said investors had been encouraged by the strength of gold's recovery after it fell to below US$1,140 an ounce last week, with the fall being met with strong fund buying. "Everyone was waiting for that correction, and the way gold recovered suggested there was a lot of buying lurking in the wings (among) people who missed the opportunity to get into the market in the first place," said Mr. Hansen.U.S. gold futures for February delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange also hit a record US$1,200.50 an ounce and were later up US$9.40 at US$1,191.70. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others, fell on Tuesday as more clarity about Dubai's debt situation eased some concerns over the region's stability, lifting risk appetite. The dollar also pared gains against the yen after comments from the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. Weakness in the U.S. unit boosts gold's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. Other commodity prices also firmed on the back of the weaker dollar, with base metals firming and oil rising more than half a percent to nearly US$78 a barrel. Gold tends to track crude prices, as the metal can be bought as a hedge against oil-led inflation. Elsewhere the world's biggest gold miner, Barrick Gold Corp., said on Tuesday it has completed the elimination of all of its gold hedges as planned. De-hedging has represented a significant source of demand in recent years. During times of weak prices, gold miners often sell a portion of their future production to protect, or hedge, against the possibility that prices will fall. When prices rise, as they have done since 2001, the company suffers because the value of the future production it has sold does not increase with the gold price. In the physical market, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose 2.134 tonnes to 1,129.994 tonnes as of Nov. 30. Indian gold offtake abated on Tuesday as prices resumed their upward trend, after a modest pick-up in recent sessions when traders stocked up ahead of wedding demand. Sales of scrap persisted in other parts of Asia on Tuesday, cutting premiums, dealers said. Analysts say they expect the gold market to continue taking support from fund and other investment demand, and further buying from central banks. News in early November that India's central bank had bought 200 tonnes of gold, followed by acquisitions by Russia, Sri Lanka and Mauritius, sparked a 13% price rise that month. "We expect to see further announcements of Central Bank gold purchases over the coming months as these banks realign their U.S. dollar and other asset holdings," said Fairfax analyst John Meyer in a note. On the supply side, Harmony Gold Mining Co., the world's No. 5 gold miner, said output was suspended at a South African shaft on Tuesday after a fatality. Among other precious metals, spot silver was bid at US$18.64 an ounce against US$18.45. Platinum was at US$1,465.50 an ounce against US$1,452, while palladium was at US$376.50 against US$363.50, having earlier touched a high of US$379 an ounce, its firmest since August 2008. © Thomson Reuters 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitkid Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...h-new-high.html Gold: precious metal breaks $1,200/oz to reach new high A weaker dollar and concern over Iran's nuclear program has spurred gold to a new high of more than $1,200 an ounce. Published: 12:08PM GMT 01 Dec 2009 Link to this video Gold futures for February delivery advanced to $1,200.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank, said: "The fact that we are seeing the dollar weaken is helping to drive gold." He said investors had been cheered by the strength of gold's recovery after it fell to below $1,140 an ounce last week, with the fall being met with strong fund buying. Related Articles Consumers warned over gold buying schemes He added: "Everyone was waiting for that correction, and the way gold recovered suggested there was a lot of buying lurking in the wings (among) people who missed the opportunity to get into the market in the first place." James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said: "Investors are buying gold because of “inflation for the longer term and a dollar play for those with a short to medium view. The market has performed well and that tends to attract funds and investors.” US gold futures for February delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange also hit a record $1,200.50 an ounce and were later up $13.70 at $1,196 an ounce. Natalie Dempster, the head of investment at the World Gold Council in New York, said recently that while she was reluctant to predict a gold-price high, demand was still rising and a number of factors are driving the lift in price. "Investors are, of course, using gold as a hedge against the weakening dollar and against concerns that central banks will not remove quantitative easing measures in time, which would lead to inflationary pressures," Ms Dempster said. " But prices have also been helped by central banks becoming net buyers in the second quarter. China, Russia, and especially India, have reversed a trend where central banks have been sellers of gold for years." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 I think a correction or at least a month or two of consolidation would be healthy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted December 1, 2009 Report Share Posted December 1, 2009 I think a correction or at least a month or two of consolidation would be healthy here. Did you not stock up during the recent 18 month correction/consolidation in Au just prior to the recent breakout above $1000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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