GOLD

[Errol]

A good fall today. Still hoping it will fall much more.

[InSilverWeTrust]

Freaking out??

 

I think this is the best i've ever felt on a pullback! Gives the longs a chance to buy and the shorts to get the hell out of the way!

 

The U.S creates a few temp jobs/fudges the figures with their birth/death model and the dollar becomes shiny again

 

 

[Icarus]

Went to my usual bullion dealer.

Wanted to get another coin today...

SOLD OUT!!! unprecedented public demand, anyone and everyone is buying. Was told to try again next week or the

week after.

 

 

Shortages are a sure sign of market manipulation. If people have the money to buy but nobody will sell it is because the price is too low, it's that simple. Whenever you hear about shortages you can be sure there is price fixing.

[drbubb]

Down and Down she goes

Where she stops nobody knows.

http://jsmineset.com/2009/12/04/the-tempor...akness-of-gold/

QUOTE

9. Respectfully, this is gold so if you cannot stand the heat in the kitchen then you had better leave. Buying dollars here has no real fundamental basis other than a few days at best.

 

The Pied Piper speaks!

 

Who is in his kitchen?

The gas is full on, and the cook is lighting up a ciggy.

PP sees the smoke and says, "Get ready to eat!"

 

 

Looks like Piedy is standing in front of a freight train - As the Hedgies exit Gold, locking in those pre-Xmas profits

[Schaublin]

The Pied Piper speaks!

 

Who is in his kitchen?

The gas is full on, and they are lighting up a ciggy

 

 

Bubb, can you translate that into plain English so that those of us not on your esoteric wavelength can understand?

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

The Pied Piper speaks!

 

Who is in his kitchen?

The gas is full on, and they are lighting up a ciggy

 

the fact that Sinclair's a total dickwad doesn't make gold a bad investment though.

[Schaublin]

the fact that Sinclair's a total dickwad doesn't make gold a bad investment though.

 

You have summed up my own complex feelings about Sinclair in one short sentence!

[drbubb]

Bubb, can you translate that into plain English so that those of us not on your esoteric wavelength can understand?

 

Added above:

Looks like Piedy (JS) is standing in front of a freight train - As the Hedgies exit Gold, locking in those pre-Xmas profits

 

[drbubb]

Bubb, can you translate that into plain English so that those of us not on your esoteric wavelength can understand?

 

Added above:

Looks like Piedy (JS) is standing in front of a freight train - As the Hedgies exit Gold, locking in those pre-Xmas profits

 

And the fact that JS has a wad of cash from previous trades on Gold doesnt mean gold's a good buy yet either

 

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

You have summed up my own complex feelings about Sinclair in one short sentence!

 

[drbubb]

Freaking out??

 

I think this is the best i've ever felt on a pullback! Gives the longs a chance to buy and the shorts to get the hell out of the way!

 

The U.S creates a few temp jobs/fudges the figures with their birth/death model and the dollar becomes shiny again

 

Wow!

What a clear statement of complacency!

(Nothing personal in this, but I think this is very dangerous thinking.)

There may be a huge, huge volume of hedgie selling in the days to come.

The ocean may be pushing through the straw in the opposite direction.

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

Wow!

What a clear statement of complacency!

(Nothing personal in this, but I think this is very dangerous thinking.)

There may be a huge, huge volume of hedgie selling in the days to come.

The ocean may be pushing through the straw in the opposite direction.

 

just to clarify, you are expecting gold to fall significantly below its current $US 1161.40 next week?

[mSparks]

just to clarify, you are expecting gold to fall significantly below its current $US 1161.40 next week?

I am.

[drbubb]

just to clarify, you are expecting gold to fall significantly below its current $US 1161.40 next week?

 

That is a clear probability signaled by the heavy selling volume - the way that I read the charts

 

[Schaublin]

As we sit here, vast underground nuclear-powered printing press complexes are spewing out uncountable amounts of USD. Specially trained monkey/human hybrids are entering zeros on the balance sheets of the Federal reserve computers in order to prop-up a bankrupt empire while cunning Asiatics look on inscrutably* and yet...and yet, some are convinced that the USD is a good store of hard earned wealth.

 

Am I missing something important?

 

 

*Wondering how to convert their own mountain of USD into gold, silver, industrial metals and oil for their own internal modernisation while those USD still have some purchasing power.

[romans holiday]

As we sit here, vast underground nuclear-powered printing press complexes are spewing out uncountable amounts of USD. Specially trained monkey/human hybrids are entering zeros on the balance sheets of the Federal reserve computers in order to prop-up a bankrupt empire while cunning Asiatics look on inscrutably* and yet...and yet, some are convinced that the USD is a good store of hard earned wealth.

 

Am I missing something important?

 

 

*Wondering how to convert their own mountain of USD into gold, silver, industrial metals and oil for their own internal modernisation while those USD still had some purchasing power.

Ummm... what's going on in the real world?

 

Hyperinflation is nice in theory but does not cut it in the real world [which is there by the way to substantiate or repudiate theory]. This is because money primarily has a practical basis and not a theoretical one. We were all told when growing up that money makes the world go round, that money moves the world. But this hard-headed abstract maxim is being falsified before our eyes… money is not moving. Why? Because the exact opposite is nearer the truth, that the world makes money go round, that the basis of money is practical. It can never be analyzed in isolation in a set of theorems, but rather has to be observed within concrete circumstances. This is what muddle-headed monetarists have got so wrong. It is the same mistake the quants made. They were so obsessed with the elegance, beauty and certainty of their a priori principles and rational models, that they allowed those theories and models to become reality. Of course, this is the very definition of madness, when the figment of your imagination supplants reality. The reality was that the madness of the quants led to an economic ruin still playing out today.

 

When you consider and observe the way in which money behaves in the real world, it is absurd to think hyper-inflation could happen to the central reserve currency. What I am more interested in is why hyper-inflationists cling to this belief. Perhaps the basis of hyper-inflation lies in the enthusiastic imagination of its adherents. Clear and distinct ideas are provided by authoritative figures. The ideas are easily understood along the lines of mathematical theorems. The ideas are essentially simple and not complex proceeding along axiomatic lines and generally agreeable to the more rationalist and mathematically minded. They provide certainty and a guaranteed eventual outcome in an uncertain world. The real world may fly in the face of hyper-inflation, but this is of no consequence as an eventual hyper-inflation is as certain as the second coming. This makes hyper-inflation more of a world-view or a faith than a provisionally held theory which would be open to being falsified.

 

 

Beyond the hype of hyper-inflationary theory, gold can be bought as a sound currency and a hedge against uncertainty.

[Schaublin]

Ummm... what's going on in the real world?

 

Hyperinflation is nice in theory but does not cut it in the real world [which is there by the way to substantiate or repudiate theory]. This is because money primarily has a practical basis and not a theoretical one. We were all told when growing up that money makes the world go round, that money moves the world. But this hard-headed abstract maxim is being falsified before our eyes… money is not moving. Why? Because the exact opposite is nearer the truth, that the world makes money go round, that the basis of money is practical. It can never be analyzed in isolation in a set of theorems, but rather has to be observed within concrete circumstances. This is what muddle-headed monetarists have got so wrong. It is the same mistake the quants made. They were so obsessed with the elegance, beauty and certainty of their a priori principles and rational models, that they allowed those theories and models to become reality. Of course, this is the very definition of madness, when the figment of your imagination supplants reality. The reality was that the madness of the quants led to an economic ruin still playing out today.

 

1.When you consider and observe the way in which money behaves in the real world, it is absurd to think hyper-inflation could happen to the central reserve currency. 2. What I am more interested in is why hyper-inflationists cling to this belief. Perhaps the basis of hyper-inflation lies in the enthusiastic imagination of its adherents. 3. Clear and distinct ideas are provided by authoritative figures. The ideas are easily understood along the lines of mathematical theorems. The ideas are essentially simple and not complex proceeding along axiomatic lines and generally agreeable to the more rationalist and mathematically minded. They provide certainty and a guaranteed eventual outcome in an uncertain world. The real world may fly in the face of hyper-inflation, but this is of no consequence as an eventual hyper-inflation is as certain as the second coming. 4. This makes hyper-inflation more of a world-view or a faith than a provisionally held theory which would be open to being falsified.

 

 

 

I daresay someone with more knowledge than I will be along soon to take you to task but in the meantime:

 

1. I cannot see why it is absurd to think that the USD will go hyper - The Soviet Union was a vast empire with similar problems and it happened there.

 

2. I do not 'cling' to any belief - I analyse what is before me and draw the best conclusions that I can.

 

3. So I am easily led - because I seek out historical precedents and draw conclusions!

 

4. I am always alert to changes and modify my opinions accordingly but I simply cannot understand how an empire that is so far gone that it is reduced to buying its own debt and is using military force in order to try to frighten the rest of the world into continuing to buy its debt can last much longer.

 

I have a great respect for you via your posts but I am at a loss as to how we can perceive things so differently!

 

 

[romans holiday]

I have a great respect for you via your posts but I am at a loss as to how we can perceive things so differently!

I am not so sure that we do view things so differently.

 

I also think the US will become less dominant in the political and economic sphere with the world becoming multi-polar once again.... decline of empire sounds about right.

 

I just do not think that the dollar will be hyper-inflated away, or wilfully destroyed. The US woould default before they let that happen.

 

The dollar could eventually be debased, reduced by half, lose its reserve status etc... while in the meantime it could well spike, double, become the "go to" currency due to certain real world processes. I just think hyper-inflation is a misnomer, and the process it describes/ predicts is unrealistic. A better word would be hyper-instability.

[drbubb]

The dollar could eventually be debased, reduced by half, lose its reserve status etc... while in the meantime it could well spike, double, become the "go to" currency due to certain real world processes. I just think hyper-inflation is a misnomer, and the process it describes/ predicts is unrealistic. A better word would be hyper-instability.

 

Tell me: Why is the Euro better? The Yen?

 

If these two currencies lose altitude, then the trade-weighted US Dollar will firm, perhaps to 80-something, or even USD-92.

During that time, which may last for months, Gold might weaken, perhaps by 10%-20%, or even more.

[aliveandkicking]

I simply cannot understand how an empire that is so far gone that it is reduced to buying its own debt and is using military force in order to try to frighten the rest of the world into continuing to buy its debt can last much longer.

 

I have a great respect for you via your posts but I am at a loss as to how we can perceive things so differently!

 

Perceiving or perception is an act of interpretation using the mind. If we can change our mind then we can change our perceptions. If we dont change our mind then we can only perceive what we saw before

 

The USA is the worlds largest economy. Other economies like Germany or Japan say are not full of consumers or people who want to take on more debt. These other economies want a strong USA economy so that firms like BMW or Sony remain strong. If BMW sells cars to the USA it gets dollars. If Germany wants to support the economy of Germany it can buy dollars

 

Meanwhile these same nations support the USA militarily and diplomatically as it gets easier and protected access to oil in the middle east.

 

Then there is the dollar as worlds reserve currency. The basis for the numbers in the banks is contracts between people who do not want to be double crossed. Most of the money in the world is dollars that are lent to other people. If i borrow 100 from you and lend 100 to Dr Bubb i am massively levered and exposed to losses if Dr Bubb does not repay me. So that loss if it happens creates a profit loss for me of the full 100 unless i have security i can sell. The banks are damaged and dont want to lend. Most of the money in the world is created by lending. The feds are mainly lending new money into existance that they expect to get repaid. The feds are private banks so you can imagine they want to be repaid or end up with no losses .

 

But you probably think banks are criminal organisations that invent the money out of thin air and no matter how long we were to sit down and talk about banking you could not possibly conceive they did not

 

So I imagine if Dr Bubb were to sit down with you and talk about banking you would also really struggle to understand how he could possibly not agree with you also.

 

Perception is a funny thing. None of us can really see anything. All we can do is attempt to sense what is there and allow it to come to us and then compare what we think we sense with what we imagine we have already seen while allowing what is there to come to us unchanged by what we imagine we saw earlier.

[romans holiday]

Tell me: Why is the Euro better? The Yen?

 

If these two currencies lose altitude, then the trade-weighted US Dollar will firm, perhaps to 80-something, or even USD-92.

During that time, which may last for months, Gold might weaken, perhaps by 10%-20%, or even more.

Gold could easily weaken by 10-20% [i am sticking to a floor of 900 for now]. But it would soon strengthen again imo. Gold looks to be all things to all people at the moment. Some buy it on the safety trade then sell when the risk trade is on again. Then we have others buying it on the risk trade [as an inflation hedge] who might sell it on the return of the safety trade. So we have gold being bought on both the safety and risk trades.... and in the aggregate it might end up being sold off less than it would if it was monopolized by a single trade. Of course, this doesn't mean that it can not be momentarily volatile.

 

As for the other currencies, I tend to agree with you. The dollar is the lynch pin of our monetary system, and until that system is changed it should be a major beneficiary as the global economy deflates with money moving from the periphery to the centre. This does not necessarily put gold in an anti-thetical position to the dollar. The way I see it is the inverse correlation between the dollar and gold will break down, and they will both be bought as safe havens in the end.

 

The strongest currencies [in the aggregate, taking volatile swings out of the picture] could be as follows:

 

Gold at the top,

US dollar,

Euro,

Yen,

Pound,

Commodity currencies,

Other currencies

 

This could be the order of currencies in a stagnate global economy where deflation reigns. I reckon a new monetary system would be required to break the Yuan/dollar peg and rebalance currencies in order to reflect the fundamentals of economies.

[Errol]

just to clarify, you are expecting gold to fall significantly below its current $US 1161.40 next week?

 

Hopefully! If the fools want to surrender physical that's fine by me.

[G0ldfinger]

Maybe Bubb has a repeating pattern of getting out too early? He got out of UK property in 2001, 3 years before the property peak in gold and 6 years before the nominal peak. If he does the same with gold, he might lose out on another 500% gain or so.

[G0ldfinger]

The attitude shown towards Sinclair on this thread here is inappropriate IMO.

 

Sinclair is one of the few people who really stick their neck out - and he has done so for a long time. All this time, gold has gone up and hit one after the other of his targets. The judgement on Sinclair's calls still stands out ($1,650), and also on his further predictions which he announces more quietly. His formula is unbeaten in explaining very concisely what's unfolding. Thta he gets things wrong every now and then is human.

[carbon junkie]

Maybe Bubb has a repeating pattern of getting out too early? He got out of UK property in 2001, 3 years before the property peak in gold and 6 years before the nominal peak. If he does the same with gold, he might lose out on another 500% gain or so.

Yup, he is the captain of the good ship miss-timing.

 

He also sulks really badly and dissapears when things aren't going his way and as soon as it is going his way he is backing crowing like a rather obnoxious so and so.

 

Not the style of a gentleman.