drbubb Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 If I knew how to post a link to todays SCMP I would ask what you thought of Jake Vanderkamps article. Silly. Jake doesnt "get it". I thought of sending him an email. The time he chose for the comparison was very biased. And he should have been comparing share indices with gold shares. No wonder he is a poor journo, and not a rich trader ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 But, in a armegedon type scenario if people have had their paper money devalued to kingdom come then who are you going to sell the gold to? Whos currency will you accept in exchange for your gold? Sorry I have more questions than answers. Even in an economic breakdown situation (which I do not anticipate for the time being) people would want to buy and sell from each other, rather than barter, if possible. Silver coins and maybe small gold coins would be good for that. For big purchases gold coins and bars represent a lot of money. Not so long ago the coins actually were gold and silver. I favour gold and silver as an investment, as a store of value, without expecting that the financial system will break down entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silent reader Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 bloody hell!!!!!!!!!!! bbc news segment on buying gold repeated every 15 mins and on news 24 for the next day or 3 we are in new territory :P Couple that with all the Bearish news regarding Banks, Stock markets etc, My tea and toast this morning tasted just that little bit nicer. But which way will the masses go ? will they all rush out and Sell, or will they all be hitting Ebay to see what they can pick up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 We need to be careful today. If the Fed's cut isn't as big as the market expects then the plug will get pulled on gold very quickly indeed. Of course, long term it will be back, but not for many months. I really can't see the Fed disappointing us somehow, though. Bernanke is desperate to avoid condemnation in the history books for failing to increase liquidity quickly enough to avoid a depression. I'm sure he'll cut big today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Looks like a London sell-off yet again. Will be interesting to see how far they can push it. Edit: Not very far at all by the look of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 We need to be careful today. If the Fed's cut isn't as big as the market expects then the plug will get pulled on gold very quickly indeed. Of course, long term it will be back, but not for many months. Sorry for the newbie ignorance, but I'd really like you to explain this a bit if you have a minute... If the Fed's cut isn't as big (i.e. less than, what? 1%?) then the 'plug will get pulled'. What does pulling the plug involve, and who will do the pulling? Oh, and a big thanks to Mr. Netwriter for all those charts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rikk03 Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 If you were going to buy a LOT of gold in one go ...... how would you go about doing it? Say £50k's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 What does everyone think for the rate cut tomorrow? My guess is a big fat juicy 100 basis points. Anything else and the DOW gets fried. Tending towrds 100bp also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Sorry for the newbie ignorance, but I'd really like you to explain this a bit if you have a minute... If the Fed's cut isn't as big (i.e. less than, what? 1%?) then the 'plug will get pulled'. What does pulling the plug involve, and who will do the pulling? Oh, and a big thanks to Mr. Netwriter for all those charts! I think he means that if the Federal reserve cuts interest rates by less than the market is expecting, there may very well be a stampede for the exits. I believe that a cut of 100 basis points was factored into the price of gold as it hit $1030 in Asian trade on Monday morning. Yesterday's action was pure profit-taking and if the cut is only, say, 50 basis points, investor will sell off gold. This shouldn't be seen as a reflection of the long-term prospects for gold - rather it should be viewed as another example of liquidity-strapped investors wanting to realise as much capital as possible to meet the increasing number of margin calls they're getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saberu Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I'm starting to question whether gold really is the best investment in this financial crisis. Surely the best way to look at things is in terms of credit expansion and hyperinflation. It will come down to the pound and dollar being worth a lot less and the Chinese Remnibi being worth a lot more as they have a huge trade surplus in China. Perhaps it's better to invest in the RMB because in 10-15 years time the currency ratio to the pound could be the opposite (14:1). I'd rather take a bet on that than gold reaching $14,000, wouldn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 ...Let Red Kharma keep on shorting, and let the old bozos running HPC keep reminiscing about ovaltine and bingo and fish 'n' chips. :P RK is really a tough cookie. At least he is one of these people who make bullion cheaper for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olloyd Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 CPI up from 2.2 to 2.5 - a whopping 14% increase! Will this have any direct effect on Gold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saberu Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 CPI up from 2.2 to 2.5 - a whopping 14% increase!Will this have any direct effect on Gold ? Shouldn't do, everyone who is an investor should know CPI is a lie as it doesn't represent real inflation yet is quoted in the context of inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I'm starting to question whether gold really is the best investment in this financial crisis. Surely the best way to look at things is in terms of credit expansion and hyperinflation. It will come down to the pound and dollar being worth a lot less and the Chinese Remnibi being worth a lot more as they have a huge trade surplus in China. Perhaps it's better to invest in the RMB because in 10-15 years time the currency ratio to the pound could be the opposite (14:1). I'd rather take a bet on that than gold reaching $14,000, wouldn't you? No. The Chinese are plagued by inflation as well. Admittedly they officially recognise it, unlike the western economies, but that doesn't make it any less potent at destroying paper wealth. Any gains made by the Remnibi will pale into insignificance when compared to the damage done by inflation and therefore into insignificance compared to the comparative performance of gold. Also, what makes you think the Chinese will pursue a strong currency policy? When the western economies finally collude in lowering interest rates and monetize their markets, the Chinese will react to prevent over strengthening of their currency, or face a devastating loss of export revenue. I can see this happening to all of the other commodity currencies (ie the Real, Loonie etc). They are so dependant on exports that they will have little choice. The only currency that may buck the trend in a large enough manner is the Yen. But given the fact that Japanese economics is held firmly under the thumb of the US, I would bet that this would be despite their Central Bank's best efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 :P RK is really a tough cookie. At least he is one of these people who make bullion cheaper for me. Yeah, you've gotta love him for all of the easy buying opportunities he keeps contributing to. The thing I find funniest about him is his pretence at being a 'long term' gold bull who is only shorting due a supposedly balanced viewpoint of the fundamentals. As soon as the gold thread disappeared from HPC he really started to show his true colours, a gold hating bear with no clue about the underlying reason for the bull market. He will continue to lose. In fact, I'm pretty certain that he has already lost a large amount of money in some of the more violent upspikes we've seen over the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Looks like a London sell-off yet again. Will be interesting to see how far they can push it. Edit: Not very far at all by the look of things. Looks like a turd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I think he means that if the Federal reserve cuts interest rates by less than the market is expecting, there may very well be a stampede for the exits. I believe that a cut of 100 basis points was factored into the price of gold as it hit $1030 in Asian trade on Monday morning. Yesterday's action was pure profit-taking and if the cut is only, say, 50 basis points, investor will sell off gold. This shouldn't be seen as a reflection of the long-term prospects for gold - rather it should be viewed as another example of liquidity-strapped investors wanting to realise as much capital as possible to meet the increasing number of margin calls they're getting. Spot on. If the Fed gives even the merest signal that it won't continue with its inflationary policies, twitchy gold longs will sell and the gold shorts will add. The result, pretty obviously, is then a sell off. How far? Not sure. But given gold's recent run up it could be a biggie. Of course there is no way the fed will stop the printing presses, but you should be ready for them to do anything in their power to diguise that fact in order to preserve the dollar. A good opportunity to do this would be to cut by only 50bps (only, lol), which could produce a dollar rally and commodity sell off based on the expectations of the market not being met. Managing expectation is all part of the game, I'm sure the Fed are pretty good at it. If a sell off did happen gold would bounce back within months. But a lot of optimistic and overleveraged longs would get knocked out of the market, maybe never to return. Don't be one of them. Don't put too much on a Fed megaboost this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 If you were going to buy a LOT of gold in one go ...... how would you go about doing it? Say £50k's worth. Telegraphic transfer the money to BV or GM and press the buy button I'd split it between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 If you were going to buy a LOT of gold in one go ...... how would you go about doing it? Say £50k's worth. I'd possibly put £20k into GoldMoney (6K London/14K Zurich), and £20k into BullionVault (6K London/14K Zurich), and I would store £10k in coins nearer by (bank locker etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Speaking of the Fed, what time's the chief chimp speaking this afternoon? Edit: Found out myself, should be around 1815 UK time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 hmmmm gold 1000 silver 20 the money managers, who are ALL numerologists at heart, sure are trying to kepp the RATIO at 50 Goldfinger predicted silver at 25-30 at gold 1000?? Or was it at 1050? At any rate the charts looked good!!! :P what do you say GF? Silver is a far smaller market to manage, I can sense that is why we still have the 50 ratio... I think we're still on the way. Here a few charts. (See also http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html ) Keep in mind, these are London Fixing (AM) prices. Compare this with the chart from 07/02/08, where the analysis first came out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Yeah, you've gotta love him for all of the easy buying opportunities he keeps contributing to. The thing I find funniest about him is his pretence at being a 'long term' gold bull who is only shorting due a supposedly balanced viewpoint of the fundamentals. As soon as the gold thread disappeared from HPC he really started to show his true colours, a gold hating bear with no clue about the underlying reason for the bull market. He will continue to lose. In fact, I'm pretty certain that he has already lost a large amount of money in some of the more violent upspikes we've seen over the past few months. I agree. He is not only belonging to the Shorterz, but also to the Haterz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I'd possibly put £20k into GoldMoney (6K London/14K Zurich), and £20k into BullionVault (6K London/14K Zurich), and I would store £10k in coins nearer by (bank locker etc.). Hi, GF. Could you explain the reasoning behind your 30/70 split between London and Zurich please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Of course there is no way the fed will stop the printing presses, but you should be ready for them to do anything in their power to diguise that fact in order to preserve the dollar. A good opportunity to do this would be to cut by only 50bps (only, lol), which could produce a dollar rally and commodity sell off based on the expectations of the market not being met. Managing expectation is all part of the game, I'm sure the Fed are pretty good at it. I'm not totally convinced that the Fed is going to cut more than 50bps but I am mindful of Bernanke's rep as one of the world's foremost experts on the Great Depression. Federal Reserve inaction is widely credited as a major catalyst to that historic event and Bernanke's going to do everything he can to avoid it . . . and rightly so. I'm not too concerned about gold's short-term price action as I was lucky enough to STR in August and buy in at $700 but silver does concern me. The vertical price movement has been enjoyable to watch but I'm not sure of the fundamentals underpinning it. There is a surplus of silver in the market . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Hi, GF. Could you explain the reasoning behind your 30/70 split between London and Zurich please? BV and GM use the same vault operator. I.e., you have risk concentratrion because of this. Say, you use GM and BV, but store in both cases gold in the VIAMAT vault in London. A thermonuclear/dirty bomb/act of terror hitting London could wipe you (and the insurer Lloyds) out. Therefore, I'd suggest to spread the risk, and also use the Zurich vault. But you also don't want to have all eggs in Zurich. Another problem is possible confiscation/taxation etc. Since this risk is much higher in the UK, I would tend to store more in Switzerland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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