GOLD

[romans holiday]

At first there would likely be barter, but then something(s) common would emerge as money (the most liquid item). Order would make its own way out of chaos, without (despite?) government decree. IMO, the Internet and mobile technology could be the game changer, along with traditional stores of wealth (gold and silver would be a good bet, IMO).

Interesting discussion this,... and for its ramifications on why we should buy a bit of gold.

 

We seem to have completely different visions of the political sphere. I'm "pro" government because I think government provides order where otherwise we would have chaos. Many on the right today are "anti" government in that they see it as an illegitimate, or exploitive, power where otherwise we would have freedom and independence. The first vision contrasts the real world conditions of civilization to barbarism, whereas the second contrasts the abstractions of "society" to "nature".

 

Ask yourself how order could emerge from chaos without government. How could free markets [beyond barter] exist without some form of government, law and order? And isn't government the only thing stopping us now from lapsing into chaos? Or is everyone so perfectly rational that we don't need government [the myth of the economists].

 

Won't, and shouldn't, governments do everything to stop an economic collapse? I think they should and will and what is most likely, should the global economy deteriorate, is that governments will resort to institutionalizing gold as an international currency. This would go towards resolving many of the problems facing the international monetary and trading system today.

 

As soon as you go beyond thinking abstractly about an isolated economy, and consider real world circumstances at the international level, the institutionalization of gold makes a lot of sense. It would be very interesting to hear what James Turk, being a banker, has to say about a coming standard. Though he is a hyper-inflationist, he seems a lot more sensible than Sinclair.

[G0ldfinger]

My message - also see my signature:

"The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible."

 

I don't say, as JS, seems to:

"Gold is in a long term bull market. Stay long, buy every dip."

You encourage people to be short term traders. I think most people will not be successful at this and fail and lose their shirts. Or do you want them to follow your own lead (a certain image comes to mind...)?

[G0ldfinger]

... but Jim Sinclair in my opinion is a shill. ...

Can you explain why? He says buy gold as an insurance, don't trade it, buy more on dips. He says that gold is not at all at a long term top. What is misleading about this?

[romans holiday]

You encourage people to be short term traders. I think most people will not be successful at this and fail and lose their shirts. Or do you want them to follow your own lead (a certain image comes to mind...)?

I don't know if Bubb is encouraging anyone to short term trade gold. I think he is just providing a counter-prevailing opinion that those buying, or thinking of buying, should be cautious as gold will be volatile. Nothing controversial about that.

 

Also, even if Bubb does trade gold himself, most realize he is a professional trader/ investor and that is his own business... so to speak.

 

Edit: Even most here calling for short term weakness in gold are long term gold bulls.

[G0ldfinger]

The anti-gold shills try to trick people out of their best insurance in this ongoing global financial meltdown every time gold retreats a little. These are the real shills.

[Traktion]

Interesting discussion this,... and for its ramifications on why we should buy a bit of gold.

 

We seem to have completely different visions of the political sphere. I'm "pro" government because I think government provides order where otherwise we would have chaos. Many on the right today are "anti" government in that they see it as an illegitimate, or exploitive, power where otherwise we would have freedom and independence. The first vision contrasts civilization to barbarism while the second contrasts society to nature.

 

Ask yourself how order could emerge from chaos without government. How could free markets [beyond barter] exist without some form of government, law and order? And isn't government the only thing stopping us now from lapsing into chaos? Or is everyone so perfectly rational that we don't need government [the myth of the economists].

 

Won't, and shouldn't, governments do everything to stop an economic collapse? I think they should and will and what is most likely, should the global economy deteriorate, is that governments will resort to institutionalizing gold as an international currency. This would go towards resolving many of the problems facing the international monetary and trading system today.

 

As soon as you go beyond thinking abstractly about an isolated economy, and consider real world circumstances at the international level, the institutionalization of gold makes a lot of sense. It would be very interesting to hear what James Turk, being a banker, has to say about a coming standard. Though he is a hyper-inflationist, he seems a lot more sensible than Sinclair.

 

Yes, crystal ball gazing can be a lot of fun, especially if the solutions could actually be a lot better than what we have used up until now. However, using PMs in a more direct way is probably coming full circle in what we consider money to be.

 

My view on the government and its role has changed hugely in recent years. I put this mostly down to personal reading and research, made easy by the Internet. At the very least, I get the feeling that not everything is done in the interest of the majority and the focus on "the economy" as a actor in this world seems strange, imo (isn't the economy just a model of individual behaviour?).

 

I am not an anarchist in my viewpoint. I can understand the argument for total free market, anarcho-capitalism, but I remain to be convinced that mafia thugs wouldn't replace the role of government thugs. Therefore, I sway to the need of some government. However, imposing majority rule and leaving many a life changing decision up to a few "experts" strikes me as both unfair and unreliable. Therefore, I sway towards the need for a government as small as possible, with people free to make as many decisions as possible. Going a bit OT, but I want to explain my viewpoint, to help explain my thoughts.

 

With the above in mind, any denationalised currency would be subject to the national law, where applicable. Laws regarding contract would be the most obvious. However, they would not be controlled and/or manipulated by a government, which IMO, has caused many of the major imbalances and "beggar thy neighbour" policy. While moving to an independent central banking model, money is less politicised, but clearly there are problems:

 

1. Governments can manipulate CPI or whatever the measurement the CB is using to adjust interest rates.

2. Commercial banks care not how much the currency is debased (profit is what they care about).

 

I agree that framing gold in a international trade view makes a lot of sense, but then I would argue it makes equally good sense at the national level. Without currency borders or boundaries, world trade becomes easy with denationalised currencies, but why stop there? I would say there are benefits for everyone if our currency is not being blown about at the whims of profit seeking bankers and imperfect governments.

 

TBH though, I think people may speak with their feet, as the free market expects. Unless the government takes steps to prevent the movement towards embryonic, but growing denationalised currencies (like GoldMoney - real full reserve banking), I think it may happen all on its own. Of course, failing currencies would likely speed the process up!

 

I would be interested in hearing more about this sort of thing from James Turk too. I had an email exchange with someone at GoldMoney asking about payment gateways (al la PayPal etc) and he confirmed such ideas had/were being considered. I suppose they need a critical mass of users, but a gram of gold is a gram of gold (same for silver, platinum etc), no matter who is storing it, which would bode well for future competition entering the market place.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

You encourage people to be short term traders. I think most people will not be successful at this and fail and lose their shirts. Or do you want them to follow your own lead (a certain image comes to mind...)?

ker

bubb

prechter

[romans holiday]

".Anyway here is a chart with the longer term analysis of gold, I also have a shorter term indicator...It has been turning down the last couple of days even as gold as been moving up which in my interpretation means the rally will turn, and at worst gold could spike up again before a turn, and it is showing extreme signs of overbought conditions in gold..."

I had marked on the chart Turning Down?

 

Gold was at 1196 at time of post and I said as highlighed above that at worst gold could spike up again before a turn of course which it did to 1226USD...

 

Here is the longer term version...Still sky high (but flattening) although buyers have come down from 76% to 70%...This is not used so much as a timing tool...but it is a warning that gold could correct more than anyone thinks, or at least more than the gold bugs think (which was only 7% or some other silly number)I m not saying this will happen, but just dont be surprised if it does. In this chart of the sell volume starts to pick up this market could make its way down...failing that, if buy volume drops and sell volume stays constant it will still fall in the end...or both could rise together, in which case the 50% line will be important... In this case shorter indicators will be needed to draw conclusions...

Twas a good call.... and one a few of us were looking for. It will be interesting if there is enough momentum to see the dollar continue to strengthen and the markets completely turn round. Failing that, the dollar could roll over yet again, with markets slouching up again and with then perhaps hot money once more chasing the metals. I have always had a nagging suspicion that we might need one last blow-off phase in the reflation trade, with the gold/silver ratio nearing 50, before we got the deleveraging swing.... on the back of some shock.

 

[Traktion]

You encourage people to be short term traders. I think most people will not be successful at this and fail and lose their shirts. Or do you want them to follow your own lead (a certain image comes to mind...)?

 

I do think this is a good point. I don't have the time or the skill to be a good short term trader and I think many others don't too. I am more interested in the long term POV, likely over years rather than months and certainly over weeks.

 

Maybe it would help all involved if calls on what was to happen was framed with a time scale? This would help everyone understand whether it is a short term position or a long.

[G0ldfinger]

ker

bubb

prechter

Pied Pipers.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

Pied Pipers.

which is why i posted the image

[grumpy-old-man]

which is why i posted the image

 

& very funny it was too.

 

[Pixel8r]

Hey,

what happened to Pixel?

has he gone into hibernation, waiting for the Bears to lose their grip on Gold?

Hi DrBubb,

 

Been busy setting up my own forum, 24Knews.com, which is a more focused site for news and comment on this crisis, with less of a trading approach.

 

As I have said many times, I am not very interested in trading, more in trying to preserve my buying power while this currency crisis and housing crash is happening. I am hoping that one day I will be able to just be concentrating on taking pictures again every day, but I think that will still be a bit of time yet.

 

I have not set the site up to be competition for GEI, more to try and calm things down a bit. I will still be popping in to GEI and posting occasionally, but most of my posts will now be on http://www.24knews.com

 

Regards,

 

Pixel8r

 

 

[Vedantafxtrader]

Hi DrBubb,

 

Been busy setting up my own forum, 24Knews.com, which is a more focused site for news and comment on this crisis, with less of a trading approach.

 

As I have said many times, I am not very interested in trading, more in trying to preserve my buying power while this currency crisis and housing crash is happening. I am hoping that one day I will be able to just be concentrating on taking pictures again every day, but I think that will still be a bit of time yet.

 

I have not set the site up to be competition for GEI, more to try and calm things down a bit. I will still be popping in to GEI and posting occasionally, but most of my posts will now be on http://www.24knews.com

 

Regards,

 

Pixel8r

 

 

Very good luck with that...being shortterm negative on gold does not mean being longterm negative. I own gold and I m not selling...Anyway, best of luck.

 

Anyway, I take it you watched the Faber videos posted here by RNS?

[romans holiday]

I wonder if the internet is a double-edged sword. On the one hand we have this wealth of information available at our fingertips. There is the potential for sharing knowledge and gaining insights from mulitple sources and perspectives for those that are interested.

 

But then on the other hand we have all the potential for a narrowing of consciousness to one bandwidth, where one certain perspective can be reinforced in an ongoing feedback loop between purely like-minded individuals. Instead of facilitating a liberal broad-mindedness, the internet would just facilitate a dogmatic narrow-mindedness which would become incapable of understanding the thoughts of others. Any disagreement is shouted down and a tribal consciousness "which is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short [tempered]" is developed. Is this progress?

 

I hope this site continues to be a tolerant and liberal space for tolerant and liberal minds.

 

 

[Methinkshe]

I wonder if the internet is a double-edged sword. On the one hand we have this wealth of information available at our fingertips. There is the potential for sharing knowledge and gaining insights from mulitple sources and perspectives for those that are interested.

 

But then on the other hand we have all the potential for a narrowing of consciousness to one bandwidth, where one certain perspective can be reinforced in an ongoing feedback loop between purely like-minded individuals. Instead of facilitating a liberal broad-mindedness, the internet would just facilitate a dogmatic narrow-mindedness which would become incapable of understanding the thoughts of others. Any disagreement is shouted down and a consciousness "which is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short [tempered]" is developed. Is this progress?

 

I hope this site continues to be a tolerant and liberal space for tolerant and liberal minds.

 

 

 

You articulate my own thoughts on reading about Pixel8r's new site.

 

It seems like an attempt to gather like-minded sycophants who will do little more than reinforce one another's opinion while avoiding "nasty" posts, i.e. ones that do not concur with the "gold is on an exponential trip to the moon" shade of opinion.

 

The value of GEI, imo, lies very much in the opposing views that are presented.

 

If ever it were to become a site where more or less everyone agreed, that would be the signal for me to move on.

 

[El Dali]

You articulate my own thoughts on reading about Pixel8r's new site.

 

It seems like an attempt to gather like-minded sycophants who will do little more than reinforce one another's opinion while avoiding "nasty" posts, i.e. ones that do not concur with the "gold is on an exponential trip to the moon" shade of opinion.

 

The value of GEI, imo, lies very much in the opposing views that are presented.

 

If ever it were to become a site where more or less everyone agreed, that would be the signal for me to move on.

 

Might be no bad thing. Diverting semi-religious dogma elsewhere. Personally i prefer a spectrum of opinion.

More learning and collaboration, more respect, less egos.

 

Good luck Pixel8r.

 

[grumpy-old-man]

You articulate my own thoughts on reading about Pixel8r's new site.

 

It seems like an attempt to gather like-minded sycophants who will do little more than reinforce one another's opinion while avoiding "nasty" posts, i.e. ones that do not concur with the "gold is on an exponential trip to the moon" shade of opinion.

 

The value of GEI, imo, lies very much in the opposing views that are presented.

 

If ever it were to become a site where more or less everyone agreed, that would be the signal for me to move on.

 

 

I agree & some of us have commented on this already

 

I for one don't want a one stop show with gold back patting all around. You will see the difference when a contrarian pov is held over at 24knews I guarantee you. Point taken though & duly noted.

 

TPTB on GEI get their wish & get virtually no contrarian pov. Let's be honest here, it's just a trading site with a VI in the current government O'Bama 'go green' policy.

 

Climategate.

[Mike Mustard]

I wonder if the internet is a double-edged sword. On the one hand we have this wealth of information available at our fingertips. There is the potential for sharing knowledge and gaining insights from mulitple sources and perspectives for those that are interested.

 

But then on the other hand we have all the potential for a narrowing of consciousness to one bandwidth, where one certain perspective can be reinforced in an ongoing feedback loop between purely like-minded individuals. Instead of facilitating a liberal broad-mindedness, the internet would just facilitate a dogmatic narrow-mindedness which would become incapable of understanding the thoughts of others. Any disagreement is shouted down and a tribal consciousness "which is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short [tempered]" is developed. Is this progress?

 

I hope this site continues to be a tolerant and liberal space for tolerant and liberal minds.

 

 

 

This is a good point. In general the internet might not be making people more aware as many would have assumed.

 

There is nothing worse than a forum that becomes either totally one sided or, alternatively, totally polarized into a yah boo widdling contest.

 

None of the debates on climate for example ever involve the latest research or anyone who is really knowledgeable about the latest research. It is just two entrenched camps who could never be persuaded to change their strange minds.

 

Also, trading just seems to be about predicting the behaviour of the herd. It is really not very interesting unless you have a bet (a bit like watching the 15:20 at Plumpton without having a wager on the winner).

 

The discussions on longer term investments are, possibly, more interesting because they range over history, psychology, philosophy, politics, geography, conspiracy theories and economics.

[grumpy-old-man]

The discussions on longer term investments are, possibly, more interesting because they range over history, psychology, philosophy, politics, geography, conspiracy theories and economics.

 

that's what I prefer.

 

I mean it's in the title 'Investors', so we all should of known what the outcome would be, even if the truth is sidestepped or ignored.

O'Bamagate was another one.....it was predicted & now it has happened, Bush reincarnated.....I mean the Nobel peace prize ffs, even the Dali has given a thunmbs down.

[allyjcambo]

Can you explain why? He says buy gold as an insurance, don't trade it, buy more on dips. He says that gold is not at all at a long term top. What is misleading about this?

 

When you put it like that, I have no problem and indeed agree by and large.

 

However it is the emphatic way in which he delivers his message that concerns me. He has no monopoly on the future and yet makes definitive calls about events coming to pass on or before certain dates. Perhaps 'shill' was too strong. Suffice to say for Sinclair and Dines I think there needs to be the following health warning: take with a large pinch of salt.

[allyjcambo]

I agree & some of us have commented on this already

 

Let's be honest here, it's just a trading site with a VI in the current government O'Bama 'go green' policy.

 

GOM your entitled to your opinion of course, but I don't see GEI like that at all. There remains a good diversity of opinion on this forum both in terms of outlook and investment strategies.

[grumpy-old-man]

GOM your entitled to your opinion of course, but I don't see GEI like that at all. There remains a good diversity of opinion on this forum both in terms of outlook and investment strategies.

 

don't get me wrong AJC, I fully support & agree with sustainable energy BUT at least I acknowledge that the governments of the world are united in making the people believe that it's totally man made, & therefore push tax making policies to take full advantage....

 

 

 

 

 

[301ouncer]

cgnao knows what/where & when will happen, but isn't giving more than a days advance warning lately (on purpose) because he wants to see the paper shouters & gold doubters™ lose everything.....imo.

 

cgnao, pluto, gf, etc have a responsiblity to inform the uninformed what these CB's doing. Taking main street hostage all because of their extravacant risk taking that is going to bring years of cuts and high taxes. These boys are monsters they know no limits in their sins. From late night cockain taking parties to... leave the rest to your imagination.

 

They have a duty to frequent sites "not nessacerily this site as most here know" but others if possible in their spare time.

 

As for the paper shouters & gold doubters they deserve everything that is coming to them. They have been warned and did not care and grew arrogant.

 

 

[drbubb]

The bears have had no grip on gold since 2000.

What the so-called gold bears celebrate is irrelevant noise in along term trend that accelerates.

"Noise only":

"This is a cubby bear market"

Does anyone detect some complacency in these remarks?

GF, I think you need to be a bit careful. There are no guarantees, not even in the Gold market.

 

A nice chart here from VT

It looks to me like a deeper correction than 10% may be in the cards.

 

I dont think a 20% drop, if we see it, can still be described as a cubby bear.

 

I am still expecting a (minimum) drop of 15%

 

It will be interesting to see how may Steps Down are taken