Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I'm not totally convinced that the Fed is going to cut more than 50bps but I am mindful of Bernanke's rep as one of the world's foremost experts on the Great Depression. Federal Reserve inaction is widely credited as a major catalyst to that historic event and Bernanke's going to do everything he can to avoid it . . . and rightly so.

 

I'm not too concerned about gold's short-term price action as I was lucky enough to STR in August and buy in at $700 but silver does concern me. The vertical price movement has been enjoyable to watch but I'm not sure of the fundamentals underpinning it. There is a surplus of silver in the market . . .

 

 

Silver, as always, is all about risk to reward. I'd say the balance today still favours reward, as the froth was well and truly sliced off in yesterday's brutal smackdown.

 

Don't get me wrong about the Fed, I think it will be a full 1 percent cut. I'm just trying to stop anyone jumping too heavily into a situation which is on more of a knife edge than most think.

 

Buy and hold - yes, always.

Buy on leverage - not now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not totally convinced that the Fed is going to cut more than 50bps but I am mindful of Bernanke's rep as one of the world's foremost experts on the Great Depression. Federal Reserve inaction is widely credited as a major catalyst to that historic event and Bernanke's going to do everything he can to avoid it . . . and rightly so.

 

I'm not too concerned about gold's short-term price action as I was lucky enough to STR in August and buy in at $700 but silver does concern me. The vertical price movement has been enjoyable to watch but I'm not sure of the fundamentals underpinning it. There is a surplus of silver in the market . . .

 

What makes you say there is a surplus of silver?

 

Check out this graph.

 

sanders030703a.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BV and GM use the same vault operator. I.e., you have risk concentratrion because of this. Say, you use GM and BV, but store in both cases gold in the VIAMAT vault in London. A thermonuclear/dirty bomb/act of terror hitting London could wipe you (and the insurer Lloyds) out. Therefore, I'd suggest to spread the risk, and also use the Zurich vault. But you also don't want to have all eggs in Zurich. Another problem is possible confiscation/taxation etc. Since this risk is much higher in the UK, I would tend to store more in Switzerland.

 

So far, I've bought in Zurich, and hadn't particularly considered buying anywhere else -- so was looking for your rationale for buying in London at all.

 

Thanks for your explanation, GF.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What makes you say there is a surplus of silver?

 

Check out this graph.

 

sanders030703a.gif

 

I've read a few silver bulls confirm it. Something to do with the demise of its use within photography. On the other hand, I've also heard that RFID-tag usage is set to take up that slack and, with no one really geared up to recycle the metal from the tags, that may be a valid argument but it's an unknown quantity. That kind of uncertainty doesn't usually sit well with PMs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
BV and GM use the same vault operator. I.e., you have risk concentratrion because of this. Say, you use GM and BV, but store in both cases gold in the VIAMAT vault in London. A thermonuclear/dirty bomb/act of terror hitting London could wipe you (and the insurer Lloyds) out. Therefore, I'd suggest to spread the risk, and also use the Zurich vault. But you also don't want to have all eggs in Zurich. Another problem is possible confiscation/taxation etc. Since this risk is much higher in the UK, I would tend to store more in Switzerland.

 

beware, especially the case with GM.

 

You store in london and zurich you will pay double the storage fee monthly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So far, I've bought in Zurich, and hadn't particularly considered buying anywhere else -- so was looking for your rationale for buying in London at all.

 

Thanks for your explanation, GF.

I bought a lot of silver in London, before the facility was established in Zurich as well (now I have some there too).

 

In general, there could be an act of terrorism in Zurich at some time. It's one of the world's financial centres.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not too concerned about gold's short-term price action as I was lucky enough to STR in August and buy in at $700 but silver does concern me.

 

Wow, you must be over the moon with your profits so far. Your timing there was outstanding. Just think, pretty much everyone who STRd at HPC could have done the same, but a lot of them were herded away from it by the likes of Charlie The Tramp and Realist Bear.

 

Sad really. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out this image courtesy of the Daily Mail - the favourite newspaper of every UK amateur-BTL-invester....

 

:D:P:P I am convinced we are now entering the public awareness phase of the gold bull run

 

MeltdownES_950x519.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Check out this image courtesy of the Daily Mail - the favourite newspaper of every UK amateur-BTL-invester....

 

:P:P:o I am convinced we are now entering the public awareness phase of the gold bull run

 

MeltdownES_950x519.jpg

 

 

Wow, is that really from the Mail? If so, one of the best things I've ever seen them do. Puts the point across so simply and clearly even a brainless cretin could understand. The mail really does know its readership, then. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I realise HPI isnt the hot topic here that it is on HPC but please if you are interested in house prices tune into radio 4. Listen to the mortgage woman having to stop herself saying the words drop or crash she pauses, rethinks and uses the word stagnate instead. Is she that scared of Krusty sitting next to her or has she been told not to use the D or C words.

Listen to Krusty telling a recent buyer who couldnt afford the mortgage repayments that she was irresponsible for borrowing too much money in the first place.

Its classic and beautiful listenning.

 

Ohh look at that smackdown by the way

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I realise HPI isnt the hot topic here that it is on HPC but please if you are interested in house prices tune into radio 4. Listen to the mortgage woman having to stop herself saying the words drop or crash she pauses, rethinks and uses the word stagnate instead. Is she that scared of Krusty sitting next to her or has she been told not to use the D or C words.

Listen to Krusty telling a recent buyer who couldnt afford the mortgage repayments that she was irresponsible for borrowing too much money in the first place.

Its classic and beautiful listenning.

 

Ohh look at that smackdown by the way

 

 

I'm sorry sbn, I just can't do it. If I have to listen to that house ramping hippo I'll end up smashing my radio.

 

She's also a 'hippo'-crit if she's now dishing out abuse to those who followed her vacuous advice to buy at all costs. I'd imagine she'll be forced into Salman Rushdie-style hiding when the crash hits in earnest. Hoards of housing/BTL suckers will be roaming the streets in search of her, hoping to enact their own form of fatwa as revenge for her years of propaganda.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No smackdown today. Gold steady at around $1010. Wouldn't surprise me to see it rise all the way up to the FOMC announcement. And then? Well, who knows?

 

:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wow, you must be over the moon with your profits so far. Your timing there was outstanding. Just think, pretty much everyone who STRd at HPC could have done the same, but a lot of them were herded away from it by the likes of Charlie The Tramp and Realist Bear.

 

Sad really. :D

 

I'm delighted with the profits from gold and silver but the timing was down to good fortune rather than any shrewdness on my part. Whilst RealistBear and his cohorts were right about the HPC, I always, ALWAYS tempered whatever they said with the knowledge that they'd been saying it - and calling it wrong - for the best part of 4 years and so, eventually, they had to get it right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Check out this image courtesy of the Daily Mail - the favourite newspaper of every UK amateur-BTL-invester....

 

:D:P:P I am convinced we are now entering the public awareness phase of the gold bull run

 

MeltdownES_950x519.jpg

 

I'd say we're at the first stages of media/public attention, right on cue at $1000. Still a way to go in this bubble and not at mania stage as yet-

 

There will need to be a sustained and commited media campaign to really get the public money rolling in IMO.

 

I'm still in and will be buying more quite soon I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No smackdown today. Gold steady at around $1010. Wouldn't surprise me to see it rise all the way up to the FOMC announcement. And then? Well, who knows?

 

:D

Famous last words?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm delighted with the profits from gold and silver but the timing was down to good fortune rather than any shrewdness on my part. Whilst RealistBear and his cohorts were right about the HPC, I always, ALWAYS tempered whatever they said with the knowledge that they'd been saying it - and calling it wrong - for the best part of 4 years and so, eventually, they had to get it right.

 

I first started lurking around HPC.co.uk sometime during the summer of '06, and didn't quite think there was sufficient evidence to back up what mostly seemed like rhetoric. I read and posted for maybe three or four months, then took a break from it, having decided not to buy a bigger house (which I was planning to do around that time), but stay where I was.

 

When I began visiting HPC.co.uk again by spring or early summer of '07, things had changed noticeably: there was the same sentiment, and a few less bulls (or 'trolls' as the bears would have it), but, importantly, a lot more plausible evidence of an impending correction. There seemed to be the beginnings of negative noises from certain quarters in the media.

 

Believing I may have left it too late, I spent about £1500 DIYing my house up, stuck it on the market in July '07, managed to sell it for over 98.5% of the asking price in November, and finally moved out and into a nicer rental place about six or seven weeks ago.

 

All in all, I'm very glad I discovered HPC.co.uk, but I do agree that it can be a dangerous thing to listen too much to lots of people who mostly think alike. A lot of potential for mass self-delusion...

 

So, anyway... who thinks gold is going to go up in price? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How to sort the economy by the Express

 

Own up who posted this comment

 

THAT'S IT THEN..

18.03.08, 10:24am

 

We're fxxxxd!.Tax increases on the poorest are not going to help much are they?.We'll be queing to buy a loaf of fxxxing bread if its left up to Gordon to sort out.The man's a cxxt.

 

• Posted by: seb • Report Comment

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lemain's Summary from "the other Gold thread"

============

 

Tuesday 18th March

 

 

Today, writing from the UK, wearing fleece and long johns!Overview O:1002.60 H:1032.80 L:994.10 C:1003.70 Japanese equities bounced 1.2% [edit - had posted incorrect data earlier] and elsewhere there were gains - the Hang Seng was 1.4% up. The USD has made further losses overnight, oil has risen slightly. Pre-market indications are that the UK will open higher. Today, key economic data is due to be released. Sentiment remains dire. National (UK) newspapers are leading on the 'credit crunch' as the main issue though most papers seem to be highlighting the implications for home loans.

 

Posters' comments on Monday...Posters were generally over-awed by events and most posts were about the wider economy rather than gold-specific though most posters concluded that the 'economic crisis' or 'credit crunch' is gold-positive. parkin405 reported that goldline are running out of choice of bullion - I had a similar experience and while I could buy easily there was not the choice, even for the small quantity I was buying.The only regular posters who are calling a pullback are Dummkopf ($800s) and Hectorp. A question was asked about the effect of any IMF gold sales but there was no concensus that this would preciptate a retracement.In summary - most posters remain very bullish on gold.

 

My own comments...The technicals remain very bullish - both P&F and other major indicators. From a technical perspective I cannot see the basis for predicting a pullback. Fundamentals remain excellent, and again I cannot see any basis for a pullback. Gold as an investment is being discussed in the national newspapers and on TV and there is huge interest from the man in the street. This is likely to become a bandwaggon particularly as ordinary people question whether their savings are safe in their banks. The small 'pullback' yesterday was really little more than noise. Yesterday's difference between high (1032.80) and low (994.10) was a swing of 3.9% and was the most volatile day we have had in a long while. Spot has been passing through $1000 as if there was no barrier at that level. Fear, rather than greed, remains the driving force.We are still firmly on the uptrend and are moving up in strides - I think that the next stride will take us to $1250.There is an increasing risk of failure of major banks and financial institutions. It is becoming more vital than ever to ensure that you either have the asset in your hands (share certificates, certificates of ownership, etc.) or the asset itself (e.g. taking delivery of gold bullion).Today should be a good time to buy physical gold - I don't expect any significant downside from this point ($1002) though a brief pullback is not impossible albeit for a very brief time, making leveraged purchases risky. I am still expecting gold to break out sharply upwards towards $1250 at any time Have a wonderful day and the very best of luck with your investments!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Believing I may have left it too late, I spent about £1500 DIYing my house up, stuck it on the market in July '07, managed to sell it for over 98.5% of the asking price in November, and finally moved out and into a nicer rental place about six or seven weeks ago.

 

All in all, I'm very glad I discovered HPC.co.uk, but I do agree that it can be a dangerous thing to listen too much to lots of people who mostly think alike. A lot of potential for mass self-delusion...

 

So, anyway... who thinks gold is going to go up in price? :D

 

Very good move there, Mr. Jones

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RELUNCTANT DOLLAR HOLDERS - there are some HUGE ones

 

aa0rk7.gif

 

For those who say that "everyone is bearish on the dollar", what do yiou say about OPEC's

huge net buying over so many months?

 

China and Japan are also huge holders of dollars.

If any of these decided to lighten up, it will overwhelm whatever Dollar bullishness is

likely to come from other sectors.

 

They are getting badly beat up on gthese holdings, and at some stage are likely to

want to exchange these "old maid cards" (stale dollars) for something better

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy days are here again :D

 

The dow crashes yesterday on the bad news,

today it goes up on Lehman getting rescued from their other buddie banks/fed

Sick bucket please!

 

 

usDown.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Happy days are here again :D

 

The dow crashes yesterday on the bad news,

today it goes up on Lehman getting rescued from their other buddie banks/fed

Sick bucket please!

 

 

usDown.png

 

 

If the market doesn't get the right amount of rate cut medicine it will go back down just as fast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×