GOLD

[G0ldfinger]

I love these e-mails from Bairds/Goldline. They keep me sharp. I just got that one and wanted to buy immediately.

Dear Sir,

 

Thank you for subscribing to the Bullion Fixings Mailing List from Baird &

Co. Ltd.

 

Fixing

GBP

USD

Gold PM Fixing:

682.967

1,008.250

[drbubb]

Does anyone here recall the level at which India bought its Gold?

We may see some decent support kicking it at that level.

$1040

Thanks, P.

I thought it was higher than that.

 

+++

Gold rush: India bought nine trucks full this Diwali

Mike Sangma / CNN-IBN

Published on Fri, Oct 23, 2009 at 22:06 in Business section

 

New Delhi: It's a record sale after Indians bought 56 tonnes or nine truck fulls of gold during the eight days leading up to Diwali - that is seven tonnes every day. Gold prices will go up further but it's worth buying as it is still the safest investment these days.

 

The amount is three tonnes more than last year at a time when gold prices are at an all time high of Rs 16,000 per 10 grams.

 

10/23/2009: GLD closed at $103.49 x 10.2 = Gold-$1056

Open: 104.5 / High: 104.58 / Low: 102.96 // high-104.58 x 10.2= $1066.72

[warpig]

JFC!

 

[VictorBroom]

JFC!

 

How did you get it to do that?!

 

[tl8177]

How did you get it to do that?!

 

Maybe Gordon Brown just announced his resignation

[VictorBroom]

In other news...

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/bargains-and-...e_id=5&ct=5

Official probe into 'cash for gold' firms

Philip Scott, This is Money

21 January 2010

 

Following a spate of complaints the Office of Fair Trading is putting gold buying companies under its microscope.

 

The business of offering consumers cash in exchange for their unwanted gold has boomed in recent years as the price of the precious metal has soared.

 

A large number of firms have set up shop, heavily advertising that they will buy gold, but these have drawn complaints from customers and were criticised heavily in a report by consumer group Which?

 

Over the past 12 months alone the cost of gold has rocketed by more than 31% to some $1,120 per ounce.

 

Now the OFT is seeking to establish whether cash for gold firms are complying with consumer protection legislation.

 

As a result of the amount of customer grievances, the OFT has asked a number of companies to provide information on their business practices and to explain a number of claims made in their advertising and on their websites.

 

Among the OFT's concerns is whether consumers' rights to reject an offer for their gold and receive it back are being honoured in all cases.

 

The OFT will also be reviewing the companies' terms and conditions to assess whether they are fair for consumers.

 

At this stage, the OFT has said that no assumption should be made that any companies involved in gold buying have broken the law.

 

Juliet Young, of the OFT's Consumer Market Group, said: 'Buying gold using the postal service is a relatively new business model, and while innovation often brings benefits for consumers, we want to check that the market and businesses operating in it are developing in a way that treats customers fairly.'

 

The news of the OFT's probe follows an investigation by consumer group Which? into cash for gold firms.

 

It concluded that these companies are offering 'shockingly bad value', paying customers a fraction of their items' true worth. Three pieces of new jewellery purchased by Which? for a total of £729 drew an offer from one firm, CashMyGold, of just £38.57 for the lot.

 

Which? said: 'Companies that encourage people to sell their unwanted gold by post are offering consumers shockingly bad value and should be avoided.'

 

Although it is not possible for the OFT to intervene directly to resolve issues arising between individual consumers and firms, in this case the OFT says it would be interested in hearing about consumers' experiences of using the services of companies who buy gold using the postal service. The team can be contacted via the website at www.oft.gov.uk/goldpost.

 

Telegraph link as well.

 

No doubt nothing will become of the OFT's findings.

 

Looks like a few firms have been making some pennies though...

[warpig]

The BV chart loses the plot sometimes...

 

How did you get it to do that?!

[drbubb]

Dr B.,

 

Enjoying today's move. I loaded up on XUKS this am in my main account, to good effect later in the day (still have these). My CFD S&P shorts did well, came back into profit, and then I took profits - fearing a bounce back as I've suffered for several of these tiny dips. Rather rashly, when a dip didn't seem to be materialising, I later went short again, at a worse price. Not yet sure if I am regretting that.

 

I'm interested in your view on gold. You seem very negative on stocks right now (general indices) but becoming increasingly positive on Gold. What is your thinking as to how stocks might fall but gold might rise. I'd have thought gold would get knocked low, low and lower by a general sell off? Or am I misunderstanding you?

Gold is falling towards some key support levels which may or may not hold.

I want to nibble a bit as it hits them, and maybe buy more aggressively only if the charts look right.

 

Gold / GLD ... update

 

GLD-105 looks like the next support level. It will be interesting to see how much selling volume might take it there

 

For stocks, the uptrend line has been broken (on big volume!) and the MA support is just below

 

SPX ... update

 

If SPX-1100 is broken, a fall to at least 1030 looks likely.

[surfdude]

Roubini was in HK yesterday and spoke about the severe correction that is going to hit global equity markets in the second half of this year. There is going to be a significant correction in asset prices (I am guessing that property could be one of the big ones here). Gold and the US dollar have been acting inversely. When the equities markets and asset prices get hit money could flow into $US (and other currencies) as a safe haven.

 

So here is my question: How long will the gold/US$ inverse relationship hold up. What indicators to watch for when they are working in tandem again (i.e., both as safe havens).

 

Alot of the gold movement back in late 2009 was with investors and hedgies jumping in. If some of their other investments get hit later this year will they have to sell their gold to cover other losses (as happened in October 2008)? When this gets cleared out and the price looks attractive this could be when gold and US$ are both seen as safe havens again.

 

 

I believe that gold needs to stay above the key support level of $1033 which was the high back in 2008.

[drbubb]

... as posted on GLD: Fair or not fair?...

 

Looking Back...

 

QUOTE ("an AgeyBee" @ Nov 28 2009, 06:11 PM)

How to get skint very quickly, short gold in the middle of a multi year bull market and buy dollars in the middle of their collapse.

You are full of surprises DrB.

UNQUOTE

Response, from DrB:

I am not short yet. Actually still effectively long (a little bit now) thru some Juniors.

But the postings and hostility here towards Gold bears, do make it very, very tempting to short

 

What happened?:

 

I dont think you have seen the last of this guy

[Fortune]

I think silver will tell us what will happen next:

 

 

If it drops through the trendline at 17, I think might be about to experience 'deleveraging part 2'. The DOW is already starting to say PANIC!

 

 

And I thought the stocks would crash in April....

[romans holiday]

I think silver will tell us what will happen next:

 

 

If it drops through the trendline at 17, I think might be about to experience 'deleveraging part 2'. The DOW is already starting to say PANIC!

 

And I thought the stocks would crash in April....

Interesting.... very very interesting. I may have to go on a dollar spending spree in the next few weeks......

 

Faber suggesting a correction of gold between 950-1000. One thing I agree with him on.

[chazza]

Interesting.... very very interesting. I may have to go on a dollar spending spree in the next few weeks......

 

Faber suggesting a correction of gold between 950-1000. One thing I agree with him on.

 

Tom O'Brien mentioning $1000 on yesterdays show. I would like to see us test $1033, I'm all in at that level.

[romans holiday]

Tom O'Brien mentioning $1000 on yesterdays show. I would like to see us test $1033, I'm all in at that level.

Platinum could be a go at 1400 odd. If I bought, it would be a shortish term trade. I feel a lot safer buying and holding gold.

 

[bitbigt]

Yanks just getting down to business. Check out the action in oil and gold.

 

This could be a very nasty afternoon.

 

Glad I sold all my oil recently

[G0ldfinger]

... One thing I agree with him on.

Yes, I mean, would you ever disagree on someone saying a gold correction is coming soon?

[romans holiday]

Yes, I mean, would you ever disagree on someone saying a gold correction is coming soon?

It is just about the only sensible thing he said. I think the guy is getting increasingly nutty tbh.

 

Keeps muttering about war.

 

Edit, I disagree with Prechter. I don't think we'll see gold go as low as 680 odd.

[signofthetimes]

Yanks just getting down to business. Check out the action in oil and gold.

 

This could be a very nasty afternoon.

 

Glad I sold all my oil recently

 

Well, they must have a shitload of paper gold to get rid of, what better time?

[bdye]

Prechter has actually put out a circular on the evening of 14 January saying that the start of a collapse in the US stock market was imminent and that the next few days were the only and last chance for overlong bulls on gold to get out, while recommending a mix of T Bills and some gold investment. He says his own Elliot Wave analysis suggested that gold will fall below US$ 252.60. A very bold call on the market.

 

Rosen is bearish to US$ 680 also based on EW analysis. Picarda also similarly bearish, using the same type of analysis.

 

We also all know Alf Field's numbers of US$ 3,400, on the same time scale, also using EW theory.

 

It is revealing to me that, using the same type of methodology, such different predictions are made. How does one make sense of it?

[romans holiday]

It is revealing to me that, using the same type of methodology, such different predictions are made. How does one make sense of it?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commensurabil...phy_of_science)

The idea that scientific paradigms are incommensurable was popularized by the philosopher Thomas Kuhn in his book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962). He wrote that "when paradigms change, the world itself changes with them" (see esp. Chapter X of this book). According to Kuhn, the proponents of different scientific paradigms cannot fully appreciate or understand the other's point of view because they are, as a way of speaking, living in different worlds. Kuhn gave three reasons for this inability:

 

Proponents of competing paradigms have different ideas about the importance of solving various scientific problems, and about the standards that a solution should satisfy.

The vocabulary and problem-solving methods that the paradigms use can be different: the proponents of competing paradigms utilize a different conceptual network.

The proponents of different paradigms see the world in a different way because of their scientific training and prior experience in research.

In a postscript (1969) to The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Kuhn added that he thought that incommensurability was, at least in part, a consequence of the role of similarity sets in normal science. Competing paradigms group concepts in different ways, with different similarity relations. According to Kuhn, this causes fundamental problems in communication between proponents of different paradigms. It is difficult to change such categories in one's mind, because the groups have been learned by means of exemplars instead of definitions. This problem cannot be resolved by using a neutral language for communication, according to Kuhn, since the difference occurs prior to the application of language.

 

Kuhn's thinking on incommensurability was probably in some part influenced by his reading of Michael Polanyi who held that there can be a logical gap between belief systems and said that scientists from different schools, “think differently, speak a different language, live in a different world.” (Personal Knowledge,1958, p151).

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

It is revealing to me that, using the same type of methodology, such different predictions are made. How does one make sense of it?

It is not a methodology, possibly not even 'soft' science. EWT is an art and hence not objective. I can't take it seriously unless "wave counts" become an objective method that can be reproduced by anyone.

[drbubb]

Tom O'Brien mentioning $1000 on yesterdays show. I would like to see us test $1033, I'm all in at that level.

I cut my Buy order in half (for if/when) GLD hits $105

 

I think a target near GLD-$100 is more likely now

[drbubb]

Well, they must have a shitload of paper gold to get rid of, what better time?

The Hedgies models are telling them to Sell Gold, as it breaks support.

 

Those guys were loaded to the gills, and as I said weeks ago, most of them will sell gold rather than

hold it through a deep selloff

 

[alexreeve]

Gold looks OK to me, it's silver that's getting murdered.

 

Edit to clarify: just a inverse of USDX action, nothing specific to gold. While silver has taken a beating with gold/silver ratio spiking up as high as 64.385!

[Jake]

Prechter has actually put out a circular on the evening of 14 January saying that the start of a collapse in the US stock market was imminent and that the next few days were the only and last chance for overlong bulls on gold to get out, while recommending a mix of T Bills and some gold investment. He says his own Elliot Wave analysis suggested that gold will fall below US$ 252.60. A very bold call on the market.

 

Rosen is bearish to US$ 680 also based on EW analysis. Picarda also similarly bearish, using the same type of analysis.

 

We also all know Alf Field's numbers of US$ 3,400, on the same time scale, also using EW theory.

 

It is revealing to me that, using the same type of methodology, such different predictions are made. How does one make sense of it?

 

 

He says his own Elliot Wave analysis suggested that gold will fall below US$ 252.60. A very bold call on the market.

 

 

No. He says that gold will fall to below US252.60 if the wave labelling ACCORDING TO Fibonacci Percentage Retracements (which paint a strong picture of terminal moves are correct). They have been correct to date. He goes on 'IF gold began a new bull market in 2001' then gold should fall 'at mininum' to US 681 and silver to US 8.97, their 2008 lows.

 

When?

 

 

2014 would 'probably' be a major bottom. And thus buying opportunity of our lifetimes. So rh's strategy of keeping some powder dry would be wise to say the least and those 'all in' would be weeping buckets.

 

 

I must admit to having been frustrated by Prechter in the past but I think he has nailed himself up there on the cross in the latest Theorist to be either utterly derided and castigated to hell or recognized as the new messiah. THAT is a very bold call.

 

If I had to put my flag in any camp the I would go with Gordon, Sinclair and Alf Field. But it would be sods law for Prechter to now be right on his barron calls through the last 9 years. He is often early on his calls and this fact rings alarm bells in my head. It would seem that if we are headed now for a general 3 of C wave down in 2010-2011 then that will be the signal he is right on gold and that will be time to dump gold and silver hoping to meet up with them again in 2014 at the bottom.

 

I guess we'll have to see. His dollar call so far is looking good for this year as everything else is going to hell faster. I leave you with a chilling quote.

 

' It am sure this will sound irresponsible in most quarters, but it appears to me that this is the last chance for heavily invested bulls to get out of gold and silver...the next phase of the credit collapse will affect all investment prices, gold and silver included, even more severely than in 2008'.

 

Art or Science, you had better be forewarned of possible blackholes in your portfolio. I recommend subscribing to the Theorist at minimum. (Doesn't help sleeping at night though).