GOLD

[mSparks]

well we will have to agree to differ then.

 

I am of the belief that one multi-country organisation does exist & is so big & powerful that it creates & runs the agenda for the whole westernised market.

Once you understand & can interpret the top level agenda the rest just starts falling into place. This is done by watching MSM, world government (especially the US though ) politcal statements & policy creation, financial institutions holdings, governing world bodies, IMF, WHO et al & the many websites that capture all this data.

That may well be true.

But they cannot rig the market, that would imply it is possible to make the other side of the trade willingly commit to something that they know is not in their interest.

At the geopolitical level this can be done by bribery - your typical moral hazard problem - but it is still insider trading rather than rigging, if the information was public bribery would not be possible.

[grumpy-old-man]

It is pretty obvious the Feds can trade on the knowledge they have by being the markets biggests players. Pretty obvious that the largest speculative positions they dont like can be targetted and destroyed. On the other hand if there are many smaller players all moving with the market there is not so much they can do.

 

If the potato harvest fails the feds cannot so easily drive down the price of potatos unless there are already large stock piles of potatos.

 

Gold seems an easy target because so much is stockpiled doing nothing at all while not much is consumed or needed.

 

they have 2 options wrt the bolded bit A&L.

 

option 1 is buy & hold the thing they say they don't have (so watch what they do rather than what they say springs to mind)

option 2 initiate new legislative laws making the owning of a commodity illegal or impose a huge tax levy against it, thus kill that particular market dead in it's tracks.

 

Just look at this article from Bernanke in 2002:

 

"Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market."

 

remember they plan years in advance.

I see the FED announcing a new huge QE package & buying a massive amount of gold (or perhaps they already have been buying)

 

or option 2 which let's hope they don't go down that route. I don't think they will go the confiscation route becuase they don't have public oipinion now, however they do have the necessary police state controls in place.

 

I must admit though the Rothschilds exiting the gold market in 2004 iirc was a planned move imo, so perhaps it will be the confiscation route.......h'mmmm

Did you know that the Rothschilds have been in the gold market since 1810...

 

food for thought ??

[chazza]

can I just ask this once more for those that may have missed my request.

 

I think quite a few of the chartists on this site saw it.

[mSparks]

I must admit though the Rothschilds exiting the gold market in 2004 iirc was a planned move imo, so perhaps it will be the confiscation route.......h'mmmm

Did you know that the Rothschilds have been in the gold market since 1810...

 

food for thought ??

The Rothchilds sold their gold mines in 2004?

 

I doubt they would do that willingly.

More likely something along the lines of:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...nes-462519.html

 

Or

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2008/...ld-Mine-in.aspx

[aliveandkicking]

they have 2 options wrt the bolded bit A&L.

 

option 1 is buy & hold the thing they say they don't have (so watch what they do rather than what they say springs to mind)

option 2 initiate new legislative laws making the owning of a commodity illegal or impose a huge tax levy against it, thus kill that particular market dead in it's tracks.

 

Just look at this article from Bernanke in 2002:

 

"Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market."

 

remember they plan years in advance.

I see the FED announcing a new huge QE package & buying a massive amount of gold (or perhaps they already have been buying)

 

or option 2 which let's hope they don't go down that route. I don't think they will go the confiscation route becuase they don't have public oipinion now.

 

I must admit though the Rothschilds exiting the gold market in 2004 iirc was a planned move imo, so perhaps it will be the confiscation route.......h'mmmm

Did you know that the Rothschilds have been in the gold market since 1810...

 

food for thought ??

 

You seem unable to understand that food is more valueable to humans than gold

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM

[grumpy-old-man]

You seem unable to understand that food is more valueable to humans than gold

 

I wish it was that simple tbh.

 

 

power & greed control humans not food.

 

edit - let's move this to another thread of your choice (or start one) because it's off topic. My last words to you & msparks.

[grumpy-old-man]

we get to find out soon if that Indian floor will hold:

 

[grumpy-old-man]

I notice CID are still out of 1oz Britannias. h'mmm

 

 

[wren]

Also, please, anyone who survived the plunge of 2008 (remember, silver down from 21 to 9?) should be coping well here.

I was lucky to avoid the autumn 2008 plunge in silver. I might have started buying in quantities in the July but delayed and seeing the correction well underway in September I waited until November to start my purchases.

 

Although the gold I bought in July 2008 was under water for a few months, an edifying experience.

 

[Pixel8r]

The cartel appear to be determined to give themselves the opportunity to clear some shorts before the CFTC position limits possibly come into play. It will be interesting to see how JP Morgan's silver positions change during this takedown.

 

I get the feeling we will soon be back in backwardation and physical metals will be in very short supply.

 

Just to remind everyone of the longterm picture

 

[warpig]

I wouldn't buy gold yet, it is likely to drop to the 200 DMA from here, so another $25/t oz over the next few trading days is my guess. Silver has dropped past the 200 DMA, so silver is not a good buy IMO at the moment. I sold all of my GM silver recently and sold for USD which has been a good trade both ways, USD should stabalise around 80-81, I will then hop back in to silver once the bottom is in. Incidentally, I wouldn't trade my gold...

 

dollar index sitting at 80.......will it hold tomorrow & go up ??

 

people just don't know where to put that fiat.

 

gold & silver would be good for them right now but they probably don't realise it.

 

I wonder what happens when China wakes up......surely they will step in properly very soon.....

 

what a weekend this will be, I wouldn't like to be holding ANY paper ANYTHING personally.

 

we all had enough warnings from cgnao

[Methinkshe]

The cartel appear to be determined to give themselves the opportunity to clear some shorts before the CFTC position limits possibly come into play. It will be interesting to see how JP Morgan's silver positions change during this takedown.

 

I get the feeling we will soon be back in backwardation and physical metals will be in very short supply.

 

Just to remind everyone of the longterm picture

 

 

 

Predictions of exponential growth always makes me feel uncomfortable. Positive feedback loops are inherently unstable and nature abhors instability and always seems to self-correct at the blow-out phase.

 

I think the graph to be found on Page 35 here: Unexpected Behaviors in Higher- more accurately represents real world systems.

 

Graph of Sustained Oscillations

 

Sorry, I cannot copy it to here - don't know how to.

 

.

[carbon junkie]

Predictions of exponential growth always makes me feel uncomfortable. Positive feedback loops are inherently unstable and nature abhors instability and always seems to self-correct at the blow-out phase.

 

I think the graph to be found on Page 35 here: Unexpected Behaviors in Higher- more accurately represents real world systems.

 

Graph of Sustained Oscillations

 

Sorry, I cannot copy it to here - don't know how to.

 

.

LOL money printing isn't part of nature - politicians and central bankers can make anything go exponential.

[Pixel8r]

Predictions of exponential growth always makes me feel uncomfortable. Positive feedback loops are inherently unstable and nature abhors instability and always seems to self-correct at the blow-out phase.

 

I think the graph to be found on Page 35 here: Unexpected Behaviors in Higher- more accurately represents real world systems.

 

Graph of Sustained Oscillations

 

Sorry, I cannot copy it to here - don't know how to.

I agree that nothing goes straight up for ever, but fail to see the relevance in the current situation.

 

The current situation is not improving, it is getting worse. There will be more money printing, budget deficits and unemployment for as far as the eye can see. Interest rates are being kept at a historically low levels and that is historically a time for gold's wealth preservation characteristic to shine.

 

Sure there will come a time when the graph posted above starts to change from an upward curve, but I think that time is a long way from coming. Gold bull markets top's don't look like this, this is obviously a temporary set back and a chance to buy at discount rates.

 

Fiat currency printing is showing a lot more than a exponential curve, more like a hockey stick. The gold price is being suppressed so that it doesn't wake everyone up to what is really going on.

 

Wake up!

 

 

[Perishabull]

The cartel appear to be determined to give themselves the opportunity to clear some shorts before the CFTC position limits possibly come into play. It will be interesting to see how JP Morgan's silver positions change during this takedown.

 

I get the feeling we will soon be back in backwardation and physical metals will be in very short supply.

 

Just to remind everyone of the longterm picture

 

 

This is a stunning chart, thanks for posting it, do you have one for silver as well or does it not follow the same type of curve?

[Pixel8r]

This is a stunning chart, thanks for posting it, do you have one for silver as well or does in not follow the same type of curve?

Silver is more volatile so it doesn't fit the curve so tightly, but it is interesting how the curve is steeper.

 

 

 

[aliveandkicking]

The gold price is being suppressed so that it doesn't wake everyone up to what is really going on.

 

Wake up!

 

Alternatively nobody has much use for gold and they are instead repaying debt and attempting to survive a difficult recession where deflationary news seems more powerful than inflationary news

 

Even Goldfinger is short of money.

 

You still get a good price for gold and can use the money to buy some veggies or if you are feeling richer a decent bit of meat and a bottle of cheap wine.

 

 

 

 

[Pixel8r]

Alternatively nobody has much use for gold and they are instead repaying debt and attempting to survive a difficult recession where deflationary news seems more powerful than inflationary news

 

Even Goldfinger is short of money.

 

You still get a good price for gold and can use the money to buy some veggies or if you are feeling richer a decent bit of meat and a bottle of cheap wine.

There is plenty of money, just look at this graph.

 

 

Anyone how ones lots of gold is not short money, they are just short toilet paper

 

 

[aliveandkicking]

There is plenty of money, just look at this graph.

 

 

Anyone how ones lots of gold is not short money, they are just short toilet paper

 

So the feds own documents tell you there is plenty of money?

 

I dont see plenty of money in the real world though

[Pixel8r]

So the feds own documents tell you there is plenty of money?

 

I dont see plenty of money in the real world though

It's being fed into the pockets of the bankrupt bankers in profits/bonuses.

 

The rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, the way it has always been especially during a crisis.

 

Out of interest do you now think the 10 year gold bull is over?

[warpig]

Why would you post such nonsense on a gold thread unless you're trying to antagonise everyone.

 

Alternatively nobody has much use for gold and they are instead repaying debt and attempting to survive a difficult recession where deflationary news seems more powerful than inflationary news

 

Even Goldfinger is short of money.

 

You still get a good price for gold and can use the money to buy some veggies or if you are feeling richer a decent bit of meat and a bottle of cheap wine.

[carbon junkie]

Even Goldfinger is short of money.

I think goldfinger has lots of money he probably just doesn't want to swap it for paper its called a strong hand.

 

The Indian Central Bank has a need for Gold they bought some.

 

To say nobody has a need for gold is crazy there is a market, its value now is higher than say six months ago its value is way higher than five or ten years ago.

 

Gold is one of the few things that has reached a nominal high since the start of the crisis.

 

Make a sensible point or ignore the facts its up to you!

[aliveandkicking]

Why would you post such nonsense on a gold thread unless you're trying to antagonise everyone.

 

Gold is not some special thing beyond economics

 

You buy it cheap in order to profit from it later when you need that profit. The time is now for many.

 

Many people need money more than they need gold

 

PS. Goldfinger earlier said he had too many prior committments for two months and was unable to buy Gold but added he might risk the anger of his wife and buy some even so.

[aliveandkicking]

It's being fed into the pockets of the bankrupt bankers in profits/bonuses.

 

The rich are getting richer while the poor are getting poorer, the way it has always been especially during a crisis.

 

Out of interest do you now think the 10 year gold bull is over?

 

All assets are in a permanent bull market long term due to the nature of our money system.

 

I cant say what will happen to gold in the next year because i dont know if we get a worsening recession or we do continue with some kind of modest recovery. Neither of those two scenarios would be great for gold but gold must rise in price eventually along with all assets. If Gold goes to Prechters 650 it would still be in a bull market as i understand the definition of bull market. I find it hard to believe it will go back down there.

 

Maybe you could clarify what a bull market is for me

 

[Methinkshe]

LOL money printing isn't part of nature - politicians and central bankers can make anything go exponential.

 

 

Markets are"part of nature" inasmuch as they reflect the actions of people.

 

Markets always seek balance - they don't like parabolas and always correct. If that were not the case then the POG would by now be in the £millions/oz!

 

I just see these moves more as oscillations (as per the graph I linked) than one way parabolic moves toward infinity, and with a constant search for equilibrium.

 

As RH and I touched upon in another thread (or maybe it was this one - can't remember) the search for balance underpins all existence with wild swings in one direction compensated by excessive swings in the opposite direction until momentum declines and a position nearer to balance is achieved - think of a pendulum.

 

I think this 10+ year bull run in gold may have a little further to go but not much - I expect to see an equal and opposite move in the not too distant future.

 

I think Prechter is right.