whoops_apocalypse Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 DOW up over 400... Recession? What recession! What a difference a day makes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldilocks Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I'm racking my brains at the moment. I know this is a cartel driven sell-off, but how will the media be able to justify it? I can't think of a single plausible reason they could give. Even the old classic, profit taking, doesn't fit given the inflationary news and the persistance of the sell off. Seems the cartel's hand is a bit too obvious in this one for its own good. Thats it you's were all wrong about the dollar collapsing ,I'm not going to listen to any VIs talking about gold going up. I'm going to sell all my gold and buy dollars, it's looking good now, I'm going to swallow the blue pill and believe what the governments tell us, that everything is strong and stable. WOW! whoopee, yippee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saberu Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Also, what makes you think the Chinese will pursue a strong currency policy? When the western economies finally collude in lowering interest rates and monetize their markets, the Chinese will react to prevent over strengthening of their currency, or face a devastating loss of export revenue. Well I think China will be the consumer of the future and pursue a strong currency policy. I told my theory to my grandad last Christmas and he agreed, he's been working in the banking industry for many years so if he agrees with me then that means a lot to me. China will move away from exporting anyway as the West's currency devaluation means there will be much less demand as peoples paper wealth evaporates and incomes don't keep up with hyperinflation, I think your failing to see the whole picture to be honest, what makes you think there will still be huge demand for China's exports? Even if you are right that despite their 1 trillion trade surplus they have somehow managed to have even more debt, at least they are investing that credit into infrastructure- and on a huge scale. China will be like how the UK was in it's hayday, decades ahead of the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoops_apocalypse Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Funny how stocks always shoot up when the mainstream media are at their most bearish. People should consider that more the next time the press tell 'em that there's never been a better time to buy... Property porn anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Well I think China will be the consumer of the future and pursue a strong currency policy. I told my theory to my grandad last Christmas and he agreed, he's been working in the banking industry for many years so if he agrees with me then that means a lot to me. China will move away from exporting anyway as the West's currency devaluation means there will be much less demand as peoples paper wealth evaporates and incomes don't keep up with hyperinflation, I think your failing to see the whole picture to be honest, what makes you think there will still be huge demand for China's exports? Even if you are right that despite their 1 trillion trade surplus they have somehow managed to have even more debt, at least they are investing that credit into infrastructure- and on a huge scale. China will be like how the UK was in it's hayday, decades ahead of the rest. All of this is correct, but it is much further down the line. China will be the world's economic 'big cheese' and it will have one of the strongest currencies. But first we must get through the inflationary actions of the central banks, the deflationary cycle when they fail and China must then find new buyers both domestic and foreign. This process will take years and will take you through many periods where a strong China position will lose you money in gargantuan quantities. I'll be the first into China when the time is right, but that time is not now. A lot of water needs to go under the bridge before it presents an opportunity as good as gold does at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 China will move away from exporting anyway as the West's currency devaluation means there will be much less demand as peoples paper wealth evaporates and incomes don't keep up with hyperinflation This is exactly my point. It will have to happen, but it won't happen overnight. China won't suddenly find other buyers with the purchasing power of the western economies, either inside or outside its borders. New demand will not suddenly appear once the west stops consuming, it will have to be built up, almost from scratch. Once the inflation nonsense finishes, massive deflation and recession/depression kick in. Do you really think the demand for China's goods will somehow be immune to a worldwide downturn? what makes you think there will still be huge demand for China's exports? Nothing at all, that was never my point. You should maybe have read my original post more carefully. China will, like everyone else, have to deal with inflation first, then deflation. Its economy and growth are very dependant on exports, so it will be forced to play the currency valuation game. As you say, 10-15 years from now it will be in a great position. But I'm not going to invest in it today based on that assumption, that would be like buying a house in the UK now in the knowledge that it would be worth more after this property cycle has played out, crash and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Hi guys, Got a bit lonely over on the market comments thread and heard this was where the action was. Although a confirmed bear, I must admit I was a little worried today when our paperboy told me to sell all my shares and buy gold Ever thought that it might just be possible that its not really the end of the world? It's not the end of the world. But it's the biggest economic crisis since 1929. As for the paper boy, maybe he is simply clever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Is it me or did someone just turn the Yen carry trade on full monty today? Is that the G7 plan to avoid catastrophy? Oh dear... Short term= recovery long term = inflationary collapse Yeah, the Yen Carry Trade also made me wonder today. Fun stuff. DOW up over 400... Recession? What recession! What a difference a day makes... This will be the first depression where the Dow actually goes up. A hyper-depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doraemon Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Hi guys, Got a bit lonely over on the market comments thread and heard this was where the action was. Although a confirmed bear, I must admit I was a little worried today when our paperboy told me to sell all my shares and buy gold Ever thought that it might just be possible that its not really the end of the world? Totally agree, we're getting closer to the top. Unless we see a total collapse of the $ and the paper currency system this could be just another cycle. Colleague at work told me yesterday that Platinum and gold were up "a hell of a lot." I think we might be entering tbe blow-off stage. I reckon that the final, irrational burst is still ahead of us, though. When the office mates that bought houses in the last year or two (because house prices only ever go up, obviously) tell each other how much money they've just made on their gold, then I'll sell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoops_apocalypse Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Yeah, the Yen Carry Trade also made me wonder today. Fun stuff. This will be the first depression where the Dow actually goes up. A hyper-depression. Need we remind everyone that Zimbabwe has the best performing SM in the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Whoops. Double post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoops_apocalypse Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Um, it seems we have some rather bitter posters joining us this evening, reminds me of hpc.co.uk for some strange reason... EDIT: Oh, and I nearly forgot to add, shoe shine boy told me to short gold down to $600 this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 3773 maples... that's a lot of coins to store! And even more to dispose of when the day comes to sell! Here's me still waiting for my first order of coins to arrive... 1 gold maple, and 30 silver philharmonics.... and I'm already thinking I'd rather have just gone for a second gold coin instead of 30 silver coins. Yes, I realise the potential of silver, but for a long-term holding of coins, is it a good idea to have THAT many? I'm going to follow the strategy now of buying physical gold coins, and use my ETF for silver... as long as it's backed by physical, and as long as TS(doesn't)HTF, if there's ever a gold confiscation or it's made illegal to own, then hopefully I'll still be ok in silver instead If you had 32 silver coins, just sell them in one go as a kilo. I have seen kilo bars of silver sold for more than £500 on ebay. I'm sure you would be able to off load 30 easily. I bet you would make a better profit on the silver coins as a coin that cost you £13.00 now you could sell on ebay for 20% more (£15.60) where as a gold krugerrand costs £515, who will pay 20% extra at £620? Would you like to suffer with £4000 Krugerrands? Silver is cheap, thats why you get so much for the money, which I believe make it a good buy. Silver maples/philharmonics now £13.03 each http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/1-KILO-FINE-SILVER-9...1QQcmdZViewItem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 The Federal Reserve is becoming desperate. Bear Stearns was stolen from the shareholders and gifted to JP Morgan, the same way Northern Crock was stolen from the shareholders and confiscated by the Brown government. Paulson proudly proclaims that they are taking note of moral hazard, by riding roughshod over investors and selling for only two dollars, even though the market is still valuing the shares higher. As I said earlier the Fed is like a cornered dog and is starting to lash out. The change in the rules (which are made up now on a daily basis) allows investment banks to borrow pristine treasury bills in exchange for worthless mortgages, and interest rates seem to be slashed on a weekly basis. The crimex (which is now known as the metals shorting market) has been busy all week shorting PMs, even the crooked LME still allowed Bear Stearns to keep its positions open, while others had turned them away. Today was a coordinated smack-down from the opening bell. The US dollar is going to hyperinflated away - that is policy now. Use any dollar strength to reinforce your positions. Deflation is not an option to them, but printing money is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Um, it seems we have some rather bitter posters joining us this evening, reminds me of hpc.co.uk for some strange reason... EDIT: Oh, and I nearly forgot to add, shoe shine boy told me to short gold down to $600 this morning... Not sure whether Doraemon is bitter, but he reminds me of RK, CTT, or RB. Remember RB's calls on gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Remember RB's calls on gold? You can bet he'll be banging on like he was right all along tonight though. I suppose he should make the most of it, dollar rallies are becoming less frequent than solar eclipses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doraemon Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Not sure whether Doraemon is bitter, but he reminds me of RK, CTT, or RB. Remember RB's calls on gold? Actually, I'm not bitter. Why would I, given gold's performance? But I just wanted to point out that herd sentiment is an important indicator of tops (like we saw quite recently in the housing market). *If* this is not the end of the world, then we *might* be near a top. I'm not making any calls, merely pointing out analogies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 ... Bear Stearns was stolen from the shareholders and gifted to JP Morgan, the same way Northern Crock was stolen from the shareholders and confiscated by the Brown government. Litigation, litigation, litigation. Use any dollar strength to reinforce your positions. Deflation is not an option to them, but printing money is. That sums it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 You think its possible that theres a "cunning plan"? Lets encourage everyone to go out and buy gold and then burn their fingers so bad they wish they hadn't joined the gold rush and will never try it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crudeFool Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Hi I think we've got a new currency paradigm here - currencies now strengthen when you lower interest rates. The pound too weak against the euro? - simple solution, chop 1% off UK interest rates, jobs a good 'un Want to fight inflation - lower interest rates! Suprised we've all been too dim to realise this "fact"!!! Regards, crude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Actually, I'm not bitter. Why would I, given gold's performance? But I just wanted to point out that herd sentiment is an important indicator of tops (like we saw quite recently in the housing market). *If* this is not the end of the world, then we *might* be near a top. I'm not making any calls, merely pointing out analogies... This is your opinion and that's fine. However, the world did not end in the 1970/early 80s either, and if gold repeats what it did back then, we all know it will end up somewhere between $2,200 and $6,000, when only adjusted for inflation up to today. Given the strong inflation outlook and when compared to other measures such as M3, it could go much, much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Totally agree, we're getting closer to the top. Unless we see a total collapse of the $ and the paper currency system this could be just another cycle. Colleague at work told me yesterday that Platinum and gold were up "a hell of a lot." I think we might be entering tbe blow-off stage. I reckon that the final, irrational burst is still ahead of us, though. When the office mates that bought houses in the last year or two (because house prices only ever go up, obviously) tell each other how much money they've just made on their gold, then I'll sell... Close to the top are we. How do you come to that conclusion? Is it the markets returning to an orderly fashion, or the gifting of a bankrupt company to a vulture compare for the price of a major league baseball player's contract, or maybe it was the emergency rate cut on Sunday that signals the top..oh hold on, how about the 3/4 point rate cut today. No, then it must be the change in the rules to allow investment banks to exchange worthless (as no-one else wants to buy them) mortgage paper for newly minted inflationary treasury bills. This all happened in one week. When your office mates stop talking about gold and start maxing out their credit cards on gold trinkets - then you can start parroting on about a gold top. Right now the fat lady hasn't even got into her car to make her way down to the auditorium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Actually, I'm not bitter. Why would I, given gold's performance? But I just wanted to point out that herd sentiment is an important indicator of tops (like we saw quite recently in the housing market). *If* this is not the end of the world, then we *might* be near a top. I'm not making any calls, merely pointing out analogies... Today's action will have scared away the herd for some time to come, I believe. Sure, they'll come back, but not until we've hit $1100 or so and are due a proper selloff. The presence of the herd is best delayed until the last minute. At the moment I'm more concerned about the presence of the speculators and funds. If they bugger off in search of pastures new, however short term, gold will lose a significant amount of rocket fuel. Why they would do so is beyond me. The main indices aren't exactly a bargain compared to gold at the moment, so I know where I'd be going for greater gains. I thought your point was quite valid though Doraemon, the mainstream always get them in too late and set them up for a good shafting by the big boys. So herd bullishness is a good contrary indicator in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Today was either the day of the idiots, or the day of the manipulators (or both). In any case, the next downleg will come (for credit & the markets). Just think of it, the UK, Spain and Ireland haven't even properly started yet defaulting on their mortgages. It will be a nightmare (if you hold no gold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Today was either the day of the idiots, or the day of the manipulators (or both). In any case, the next downleg will come (for credit & the markets). Just think of it, the UK, Spain and Ireland haven't even properly started yet defaulting on their mortgages. It will be a nightmare (if you hold no gold). I would loved to have been in the pits this afternoon... FED CUTS BY 3/4......BUY OIL NOW...BUY OIL....oh at the same time....SELL GOLD...SELL GOLD. Hilarious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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