wren Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 You think its possible that theres a "cunning plan"? Lets encourage everyone to go out and buy gold and then burn their fingers so bad they wish they hadn't joined the gold rush and will never try it again. This has been my inkling. And the $1000 mark is the best place to stage the battle. I wonder whether it could suck people in in the 1000 to 1200 range and a later bearish period in the summer could frighten weak holders out for good. Lots of "Gold drops below $1000" headlines might me made in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I would loved to have been in the pits this afternoon... FED CUTS BY 3/4......BUY OIL NOW...BUY OIL....oh at the same time....SELL GOLD...SELL GOLD. Hilarious... Very well put. I can't see how today's move can possibly be made to stick. It was so false, I doubt even Nadler will get pulled in by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Today's action will have scared away the herd for some time to come, I believe. Sure, they'll come back, but not until we've hit $1100 or so and are due a proper selloff. The presence of the herd is best delayed until the last minute. At the moment I'm more concerned about the presence of the speculators and funds. If they bugger off in search of pastures new, however short term, gold will lose a significant amount of rocket fuel. Why they would do so is beyond me. The main indices aren't exactly a bargain compared to gold at the moment, so I know where I'd be going for greater gains. I thought your point was quite valid though Doraemon, the mainstream always get them in too late and set them up for a good shafting by the big boys. So herd bullishness is a good contrary indicator in my book. I disagree, shorts piled in today, they will be the new rocket fuel. The fundamentals did not change when Bernanke gifted a 3/4 rate cut to the markets this afternoon. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I'm itching for a correction back to $850 (or thereabouts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doraemon Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 This is your opinion and that's fine. However, the world did not end in the 1970/early 80s either, and if gold repeats what it did back then, we all know it will end up somewhere between $2,200 and $6,000, when only adjusted for inflation up to today. Given the strong inflation outlook and when compared to other measures such as M3, it could go much, much higher. Sure, I agree. Personally, I also think the inflation-adjusted value of the last spike might offer some clue as to where we might be headed. But to put things into perspective: two decades after that spike in the 80s, gold was back below $300, and that's not much in 80s $, is it? All things being equal, speculators need to cash in at some point. But that's just my personal opinion, as you say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I disagree, shorts piled in today, they will be the new rocket fuel. The fundamentals did not change when Bernanke gifted a 3/4 rate cut to the markets this afternoon. Stay tuned... Why they would do so is beyond me. I disagree with myself. And therefore agree with you. So there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I'm itching for a correction back to $850 (or thereabouts). Maybe another rate cut of 3/4 should do it. That's how things now work in the US financial markets, which I think the movie The Matrix was based on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 LOL I bought my last gold at $1001. This is the 1st time i've fallen victim of a correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Sure, I agree. Personally, I also think the inflation-adjusted value of the last spike might offer some clue as to where we might be headed. But to put things into perspective: two decades after that spike in the 80s, gold was back below $300, and that's not much in 80s $, is it? All things being equal, speculators need to cash in at some point. But that's just my personal opinion, as you say... People like Jim Sinclair think there will be no blow-off top this time. But who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 LOL I bought my last gold at $1001. This is the 1st time i've fallen victim of a correction. I remember buying at 720 just a couple of days before gold corrected to 575. Still have every oz. No one can time the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 The Telegraph has it wrong - it was the steal of the century. The shareholders have a right to be upset. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cndenham118.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dopamine Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 LOL I bought my last gold at $1001. This is the 1st time i've fallen victim of a correction. I have my own personal rule for markets. When I buy into a market, it corrects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Looks to me the same as the pattern since the beginning of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bandwagon Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I have my own personal rule for markets. When I buy into a market, it corrects. There is an old fund manager by the name of Peter Lynch. He ran the top mutual fund in America for 13 years during the 70's and 80's. He said much the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 The IMF sees through the BS. Are you thinking the unthinkable? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee21ddbc-f08b-11...00779fd2ac.html He urged policymakers to “think the unthinkable” and prepare now for what they would do if the worst case scenarios materialised and “low probability but high impact events” threatened to jeopardise global financial stability. He warned of the risk that a “global financial decelerator” could take hold, in which rising defaults and margin calls from lenders triggered forced asset sales, driving down the value of collateral and forcing further forced sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Jim Sinclair’s Commentary The equity markets and the financial sector stocks love the Fed so why doesn’t everyone? To understand the following article make sure you first understand the following: Inflation is two fold. First it is the expansion of monetary aggregates which always result in price inflation. Deflation is debt failure first. Debt failure clear of no monetary expansion will reduce prices. We now have unprecedented monetary inflation on top of price inflation coming from the monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2000 to present. We are headed to some degree of the Weimar experience, which can be summed up as debt failure, collapse in business activity and an explosive rise in prices for goods and services while a currency collapse took place. That is a mouthful, but also totally accurate concerning the present situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 I am not a lawyer, but this document stinks like a rotting turd. Those investing in ETFs specifically GLD should go over every word with a fine tooth comb. http://regulations.justia.com/view/105224/ SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission) is proposing to exempt certain transactions in physically delivered futures contracts based on streetTRACKS[reg] Gold Trust Shares (ST gold futures contracts) \1\ from those provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA or Act),\2\ and the Commission's regulations thereunder, that are inconsistent with the trading and clearing of ST gold futures contracts as security futures. The proposed exemption would be conditioned on the compliance of transactions in ST gold futures contracts with the requirements established for security futures. The authority for the issuance of this exemption is found in Section 4© of the Act.\3\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 There is an old fund manager by the name of Peter Lynch. He ran the top mutual fund in America for 13 years during the 70's and 80's.He said much the same thing. Most people would rarely buy and not see it go lower at some later date - you'd have to buy at the last time your buy price was ever seen. If anybody knows how to do that consistently please PM the method to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Now... I wouldn't say I'm ready to join the "deflationist" camp just yet but... I've been thinking. We're already seeing used car prices falling, house prices falling, and other assets typically purchased with credit suffer. A worldwide recession will undoubtedly reduce demand for many products, and reign in much expansion which would otherwise consume commodities. Reading http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e6abbf2-f43a-11...00779fd2ac.html you'd think it all might end in tears for commodities. So when we consider that silver in particular IS used in manfacturing (talk of camera film and antibacterial products on this board recently), how can we be sure that G & S are "special / immune" from such effects just because historically they've been considered money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Now... I wouldn't say I'm ready to join the "deflationist" camp just yet but... I've been thinking. We're already seeing used car prices falling, house prices falling, and other assets typically purchased with credit suffer. A worldwide recession will undoubtedly reduce demand for many products, and reign in much expansion which would otherwise consume commodities. Reading http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e6abbf2-f43a-11...00779fd2ac.html you'd think it all might end in tears for commodities. So when we consider that silver in particular IS used in manfacturing (talk of camera film and antibacterial products on this board recently), how can we be sure that G & S are "special / immune" from such effects just because historically they've been considered money? There will be less availability of NEW credit. But the old credit/cash is what the Fed is most concerned about and tries to secure. No one will be allowed to lose their deposit in a bankrun. There is so much 'cash' out there, if only a fraction moves into gold, it will shoot to the moon. There is no need for new credit to make this happen. If only China moved a small fraction of its reserves (all HQ treasuries & cash) into gold, it would literally explode. Silver might lag behind gold, but it will not ignore moves in gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 If this is correct then £6500 spent on silver ounce coins today may buy you an average (American) house in the future. Or £21,000 on gold ounce coins. Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” recently stated that he has a large position in silver and plans to exit when his target is met. He says when the cost of a median priced single family home in the US sells for 500 oz of silver (or 40 oz of gold) he believes it will be time to exit the silver market http://news.silverseek.com/SilverTradingCo.../1205733600.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Interesting thread. Silver is OUT. (Well, if we can believe these stories.) http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread....405#post1018405 I have been a steady buyer of 100oz bars here in Vancouver for the past 3 years and have built a rapport with 2 of the biggest dealers here. My main dealer just told me..he tried to order 6500 oz from his US connection...NO GO ... THEY ARE OUT!! My second dealer said the same thing...no supply for at least a month. Im sitting here in a large North American city and I cant get silver right now! Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Dr.B says: well, i got that wrong! Mr.X says: bloody price fixers B: the strength in the dollar yesterday surprised me, but I suppos that the Fed must have lined up some dollar buying for after its rate cut X: that JPM deal for bear looks unlikely now B: Obvious in hindsight! There was even a nice gap in the Gold (GLD) chart that it went back to fill X: whats the next downside target B: GLD fell back to/near the 21day MA X: hang on, I have some charts... B: no.1: : shows the gap ... see more PRO Trader talk ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 "Help, Mr President!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rikk03 Posted March 18, 2008 Report Share Posted March 18, 2008 Its the same in Birmingham ...... nobody has Kugerrands for sale. My broker tells me large volumes are trading hands but they are sold as soon as he has bought them. Hes basically telling me to join the queue of buyers, he said to me today - give me a call when you have the cash in your pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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