GOLD

[romans holiday]

I see what you are saying but don't agree, we have to deal with the here and now, gold is a tangible store of wealth, and has been for thousands of years, it is one of very few things I see as cheap at the moment, houses, shares bonds all look dear ?

Being late to the party I would love it to drop lower in price then I could further join in ! I suspect though it wont and in 12months time now may be seen as a good buying oppourtunity?

 

Who knows?

 

Do you mind me asking what is your average in price for your holdings ?

 

Regards

 

ML

I bought my core holding in gold nearly 2 years ago with NZ dollars. The price then was around $1100, it is now near $1600 [and spiked to $2000 briefly to which I think it will soon return]. There would be no point of waiting for lower gold prices if you were sitting in NZ dollars [or Aussie dollars] imo.

 

If one didn't own gold, then the current price is as good a place as any to start I guess. If one had a decent holding, and wanted to hedge for lower prices, then US dollars [perhaps also Yen] would be the currencies to wait in. I'll be averaging in some dollar funds over the course of this year... while keeping some back in reserve should we see a temporary sell-off which could co-incide with a sell-off in all markets.

 

Whether you buy here or not depends more on your own personal circumstances [how much, percentage-wise, do you actually own] than on some technical or objective view on the price of gold imo.

[warpig]

I like the sound of that. It puts things in to perspective.

 

Maybe what we should do is price the dollar in terms of gold and watch the dollar fluctuate.

[Catflap]

Another great piece from Adam Hamilton:

 

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/gsrec2.htm

 

[giantbat]

Another great piece from Adam Hamilton:

 

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/gsrec2.htm

 

Interesting article Catflap. If I may be so cheeky to inquire, what gold junior mining stocks do the wise (catflap, drb etc!) currently hold?

 

giantbat

 

ps. just recently registered - though have been lurking away for a few months on here and HPC. Love the site DrB .

[Manual labourer]

I bought my core holding in gold nearly 2 years ago with NZ dollars. The price then was around $1100, it is now near $1600 [and spiked to $2000 briefly to which I think it will soon return]. There would be no point of waiting for lower gold prices if you were sitting in NZ dollars [or Aussie dollars] imo.

 

If one didn't own gold, then the current price is as good a place as any to start I guess. If one had a decent holding, and wanted to hedge for lower prices, then US dollars [perhaps also Yen] would be the currencies to wait in. I'll be averaging in some dollar funds over the course of this year... while keeping some back in reserve should we see a temporary sell-off which could co-incide with a sell-off in all markets.

 

Whether you buy here or not depends more on your own personal circumstances [how much, percentage-wise, do you actually own] than on some technical or objective view on the price of gold imo.

 

 

Cheers RH. You seem to be in a very good position to me! Fingers crossed for a summer sell off/buying opportunity for us both !

 

 

ML.

[electroweak]

Interesting article Catflap. If I may be so cheeky to inquire, what gold junior mining stocks do the wise (catflap, drb etc!) currently hold?

 

giantbat

 

ps. just recently registered - though have been lurking away for a few months on here and HPC. Love the site DrB .

Welcome, giantbat! - nice to hear from you. Personally, none atm. You could look here http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showforum=24 for ideas. I think it was CGNAO who once described them as crooks with a hole in the ground!

I have done well in the past with Mwana, Pan African Resources and Afplats (was taken over - a few-bagger

[Catflap]

Interesting article Catflap. If I may be so cheeky to inquire, what gold junior mining stocks do the wise (catflap, drb etc!) currently hold?

 

giantbat

 

ps. just recently registered - though have been lurking away for a few months on here and HPC. Love the site DrB .

 

Welcome giantbat - I don't hold any juniors but hold 1 gold share Petropavlovsk (formerly Peter Hambro) and 2 gold funds (investec Global Gold and BlackRock Gold & General). If I had the time, a better broker and more experience then I would consider the juniors but for now I aim to swing trade the above and maybe look at juniors before the final mania phase begins in a few years time.

[warpig]

What makes you think you have a few years before the mania phase begins?

 

maybe look at juniors before the final mania phase begins in a few years time.

[Catflap]

What makes you think you have a few years before the mania phase begins?

 

Because too many people are still punting their money on property, building shares and bank shares. If you think about the different assets that the general public are going to speculate in then they are gold, shares and property.

 

1966 was a share peak

1973 was a housing peak

1980 was a gold peak

1989 was a housing peak

1999 was a share peak

2007 was a housing peak

 

2016/2017 should be a gold peak again - do you see the pattern?.

 

The inflationary Kondratieff summer is shorter, so the speculative peaks are a little closer at 7 years, whereas the low inflation Kondratieff autumn and deflationary (in assets) Kondratieff winter are more like 9 years.

 

My K-wave theory predicts a major low in stockmarkets in April/May 2013 - after the general public see their pensions and investments mullered for a third time since 2000 with yet another stock market crash, they will see what gold is doing because everyone is talking about it and give up on stocks and BTL.

 

Having gone through the whole of the 80's and 90's making handsome gains year after year (except for the brief crash of '87 that soon recovered) most baby boomers have never seen times like these in their investing lives. I think money will pour into gold and gold stocks from 2013 because it's making new highs and the second/longer part of the deflationary bust will be coming to an end with inflation then becoming the problem later.

 

Before all of this can happen though, gold will go through another deeper correction like it did in 2008 which creates another buying opportunity for the 5th wave up which is the mania phase.

[Jake]

Catflap, where are we in Winter, in your estimation? Are we sniffing a false, QE induced Spring and thus still at the beginnings of Winter, or about one third way through?

Your post is very interesting, as always, and gives much food for thought. Any crumbs for Japan related thoughts?

Thanks, Jake.

[romans holiday]

Having gone through the whole of the 80's and 90's making handsome gains year after year (except for the brief crash of '87 that soon recovered) most baby boomers have never seen times like these in their investing lives. I think money will pour into gold and gold stocks from 2013 because it's making new highs and the second/longer part of the deflationary bust will be coming to an end with inflation then becoming the problem later.

 

Before all of this can happen though, gold will go through another deeper correction like it did in 2008 which creates another buying opportunity for the 5th wave up which is the mania phase.

Interesting post and time-line of events. But I wonder if we will ever see gold go manic.

 

Deflation is a destroyer of middle class worlds and mediocre debt-ridden economies. The retail investor who invested in real estate and stocks might be wiped out by the time we are deep into K winter terror-tory.

 

How can we have an investment mania in the depths of a depression where a lot of wealth has been wiped out and money is scarce? Wouldn't this make a seventies style mania in gold problematic? But then neither would gold get in a bubble, which seems to be a future concern for many buying gold.

 

This leaves institutional money. Once it moves into gold to avoid possible currency depreciation and instability, the CBs would realise the game is up and look to re-boot a new monetary system in which gold would have to play a part.

 

Even if gold only doubled nominally from here, it still would be an excellent "investment" if assets had more than halved in prices. In real terms, the gain is more than four-fold.

[duckwomanloulou]

Because too many people are still punting their money on property, building shares and bank shares. If you think about the different assets that the general public are going to speculate in then they are gold, shares and property.

 

1966 was a share peak

1973 was a housing peak

1980 was a gold peak

1989 was a housing peak

1999 was a share peak

2007 was a housing peak

 

2016/2017 should be a gold peak again - do you see the pattern?.

 

The inflationary Kondratieff summer is shorter, so the speculative peaks are a little closer at 7 years, whereas the low inflation Kondratieff autumn and deflationary (in assets) Kondratieff winter are more like 9 years.

 

My K-wave theory predicts a major low in stockmarkets in April/May 2013 - after the general public see their pensions and investments mullered for a third time since 2000 with yet another stock market crash, they will see what gold is doing because everyone is talking about it and give up on stocks and BTL.

 

Having gone through the whole of the 80's and 90's making handsome gains year after year (except for the brief crash of '87 that soon recovered) most baby boomers have never seen times like these in their investing lives. I think money will pour into gold and gold stocks from 2013 because it's making new highs and the second/longer part of the deflationary bust will be coming to an end with inflation then becoming the problem later.

 

Before all of this can happen though, gold will go through another deeper correction like it did in 2008 which creates another buying opportunity for the 5th wave up which is the mania phase.

 

 

Interesting stuff catflap!

 

Do you see the deeper correction in gold happening at the same time as the stock market low in 2013?

[Catflap]

Catflap, where are we in Winter, in your estimation? Are we sniffing a false, QE induced Spring and thus still at the beginnings of Winter, or about one third way through?

Your post is very interesting, as always, and gives much food for thought. Any crumbs for Japan related thoughts?

Thanks, Jake.

 

 

Halfway through the K-winter in the west since it began in 2000 and K-winters last around 20 years. So the K-spring cannot start again before private debt has been purged by either writing it off and/or paying it down. I don't see huge public debt as being so much of a problem because once an economy starts to turn around it can grow it's way out of this huge debt with the assistance of rising inflation. That's what I think will happen with Japan.

 

A very interesting piece recently from MSW in MoneyWeek about Japan - I do still think they are at the beginning of a new K-spring and this just confirms it even more IMO.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice...cade-47404.aspx

 

 

Interesting post and time-line of events. But I wonder if we will ever see gold go manic.

 

Deflation is a destroyer of middle class worlds and mediocre debt-ridden economies. The retail investor who invested in real estate and stocks might be wiped out by the time we are deep into K winter terror-tory.

 

How can we have an investment mania in the depths of a depression where a lot of wealth has been wiped out and money is scarce? Wouldn't this make a seventies style mania in gold problematic? But then neither would gold get in a bubble, which seems to be a future concern for many buying gold.

 

This leaves institutional money. Once it moves into gold to avoid possible currency depreciation and instability, the CBs would realise the game is up and look to re-boot a new monetary system in which gold would have to play a part.

 

Even if gold only doubled nominally from here, it still would be an excellent "investment" if assets had more than halved in prices. In real terms, the gain is more than four-fold.

 

Well, the mania doesn't have to come from the west this time - look to the Chinese who are notorious gamblers. Look what recently happened with Chinese pig farmers and other private investors stockpiling copper - that's just a taste of what's to happen with gold IMO.

 

It's a potent combination - over 1 billion Chinese people with more wealth then ever before who are also big gamblers. If they suffer a property bust or high inflation in the coming years then that could also benefit gold.

 

 

Interesting stuff catflap!

 

Do you see the deeper correction in gold happening at the same time as the stock market low in 2013?

 

I think gold will likely make a peak in Q1 of 2011 and then fall with the general stock market into Q3 2012 (although general stocks will continue to slide into Q2 of 2013) where the dollar will once again be very strong (that's another election year like we saw in 2008). So I see a deeper correction coming if gold gets to $1350 to $1400 first which will takes it back into 3 digits - could be $800 to $900 again, but to be honest I really am just guessing with prices. I focus on time not prices.

 

You are going to need a deeply oversold condition like this to launch the last 3/4 years of mania into an inflation adjusted peak around $2000 - I don't think it's anything to fear unless you are over-committed. It should be seen as another great opportunity like 2008 was IMO.

 

2012 is 36 years (2 x 18 year business cycles) from 1976 and the fractal pattern in the dollar index says this is the equivalent point.

[malvern hills]

Halfway through the K-winter in the west since it began in 2000 and K-winters last around 20 years. So the K-spring cannot start again before private debt has been purged by either writing it off and/or paying it down. I don't see huge public debt as being so much of a problem because once an economy starts to turn around it can grow it's way out of this huge debt with the assistance of rising inflation. That's what I think will happen with Japan.

 

A very interesting piece recently from MSW in MoneyWeek about Japan - I do still think they are at the beginning of a new K-spring and this just confirms it even more IMO.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice...cade-47404.aspx

 

Catflap I find your posts most interesting and intriguing .Thank you.

[G0ldfinger]

A few updates:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold..._LOG_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/Gold_USD_Pixel8r.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1985/Gold...atio_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since2001/Gold..._LOG_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/UK_H..._LOG_GUESS.html

[signofthetimes]

welcome back GF

[azazel]

A few updates:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold..._LOG_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/Gold_USD_Pixel8r.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1985/Gold...atio_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since2001/Gold..._LOG_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/UK_H..._LOG_GUESS.html

 

Thx goldfinger. Steady as she goes.....

[dietcolaaddict]

Gold price seems to be stuck between c. $1140 and c. $1070 since the top of late last year.

 

Now right in the middle at c. $1105.

 

[wren]

Good to see that GF is back posting.

 

I have been posting your UK house prices in gold chart at HPC fairly often, hoping that some can see that the crash is well on in gold terms and will most likely continue.

 

Looking at the PIxel8r lines chart, do people think this upleg is over or only half-way through? Pixel8r originally targeted 1300-1350, I think, if it played out like the previous years and we would at present still be only half-way through the full move.

 

I'm hoping for a new high by the end of May.

[LauraB]

Where is this guy coming from?!

 

Everything is so rosy now that $650 is on?

 

I'd be piling in well before that & I'm sure I'd get crushed in the rush!

 

http://investophoria.blogspot.com/

 

Our opinion is still that the downside is more probably than the upside, and if the range is broken down it should usher in a move to the $950 area at minimum, with our downside target somewhere around $650.

 

Note the lack of screws to hold up his plastic plaque

[Schaublin]

Where is this guy coming from?!

 

Everything is so rosy now that $650 is on?

 

I'd be piling in well before that & I'm sure I'd get crushed in the rush!

 

http://investophoria.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

Note the lack of screws to hold up his plastic plaque

 

The author does not want to nail his colours to the mast (gold will either go up or down a lot...) so perhaps he has no nails either! Laura, you are frighteningly observant!

[tinecu]

A few updates:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold..._LOG_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since2004/Gold_USD_Pixel8r.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1985/Gold...atio_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since2001/Gold..._LOG_GUESS.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/UK_H..._LOG_GUESS.html

 

Great to see you back!

 

I think you moved back to Germany? Hope it wasn't too tiresome.

You were missed!

[romans holiday]

Well, the mania doesn't have to come from the west this time - look to the Chinese who are notorious gamblers. Look what recently happened with Chinese pig farmers and other private investors stockpiling copper - that's just a taste of what's to happen with gold IMO.

 

It's a potent combination - over 1 billion Chinese people with more wealth then ever before who are also big gamblers. If they suffer a property bust or high inflation in the coming years then that could also benefit gold.

Have to say I'm on the China bears side, such as Rickards and Chanos, on this one. The whole issue of decoupling is an interesting one. I think we'll eventually see decoupling, but in the short/ medium term China's fate looks tied to the project of globalism. What we are seeing now is an asset inflation/ bubble... yet it might take a while for it to pop. Still, the future of gold looks tied to depreciating currencies, and the demise of "market fundamentalism" where it was assumed currencies could themselves trade freely on the market. China is now showing this model to be defunct. The future with gold is one of remonetization imo, not one where it is just another investment vehicle. A completely revamped monetary system may be required to see economies emerge from K winter to spring.

 

South Korean CB today stated they are starting to buy gold. Previously, they had dissed it.

[BlackPepper]

Have to say I'm on the China bears side such as Rickards and Chanos on this one. The whole issue of decoupling is an interesting one. I think we'll eventually see decoupling, but in the short/ medium term China's fate looks tied to the project of globalism. What we are seeing now is an asset inflation/ bubble... yet is might take a while for it to pop. Still, the future of gold looks tied to depreciating currencies, and the demise of "market fundamentalism" where it was assumed currencies could themselves trade freely on the market. China is now showing this model to be defunct. The future with gold is one of remonetization imo, not one where it is just another investment vehicle. A completely revamped monetary system may be required to see economies emerge from K winter to spring.

 

South Korean CB today stated they are starting to buy gold. Previously, they had dissed it.

 

Now this is interesting, if the CB's start cornering the gold market, it may force the price of gold down.

[romans holiday]

Now this is interesting, if the CB's start cornering the gold market, it may force the price of gold down.

Well, with CBs net buyers of gold, it should make gold more expensive in the market... more demand from the big boys and less available for investors. I think investors should copy what the CBs are doing. imo the CBs are buying gold in order to recapitalize economies/ currencies in the future. The problem with CBs having supported the weight of private and corporate debt that should deflate, is they have transferred systemic risk to currencies themselves. I think the manouvre towards gold reflects this super systemic risk. Gold is being remonetized.