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No, I can't. I wish Prechter would pop up to punch his own corner. I am not his spokesperson and I hope he is wrong and you are right on gold for one ;)

 

I just feel like this is a situation where nobody can know what is going to pan out and a modicum of caution wouldn't come amiss.

 

Don't you think we are due a spot of stock market deleveraging like 2008? There are so many calling for it now across the spectrum of commentators that I think it is only a matter of time. If yes and as this is the gold thread, don't you see gold being taken down a peg or two at least?

 

On another front, hope your move turns out a success and went smoothly for you.

 

Here's a bit of Deflation scare for you just in from Richard Russell

 

''The power of negative compounding will be brutal. The cost of carrying the world's debt (including the US national debt) will be devastating. It will be highly deflationary and it will crush everything in its path. There will be a frenzy for dollars -- dollars will be needed to carry or pay off debt. There will be initial pressure on gold. There will be pressure on stocks. "Safe" high quality high-yielding bonds will compete with all other investment sectors.''

 

 

What would happen if the US/UK just defaulted, said it wasn't going to pay?

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You're not sidetracking this thread, this is very relevant.

 

Beyond GF's comment, he regards gold as a commodity and has no consideration for market manipulation through the COMEX, he couldn't be further from the truth... Every man and his dog knows gold has at times, acted more akin to a currency and doesn't always move inverse to the dollar. He's been way off the mark on gold for 10+ years, don't believe him now.

 

Don't want to sidetrack the gold thread, but does anyone know if Prechter fully discounted money printing in his work?
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You're on the right track. But even if I had the cash to buy a farm, I'd hold back as I think farm prices will come down. Better to sit in gold [as a means to the end] and watch asset prices deflate.

 

My brother in law has a small farm, and tells me many of the farmers he knows are struggling with massive debt [from buying/ expanding with mortgages at the peak]. If the Chinese markets crash again....

 

RH, I think we are on the same track,and I agree with most of your posts, I also see deflation of assets prices v increase in Gold. I guess I want a farm therefore my perspective may be skewed, hope your right farmland to deflate against gold= bigger farm!

 

ML.

 

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What would happen if the US/UK just defaulted, said it wasn't going to pay?

 

Pay who? If they live in the west then I think nothing because they are people who need air food and water. And if they push it then the special forces or a legal team will be on their doorstep to shut them down.

 

If its a strong overseas power, then a tradewar and proxy conflicts in resource rich areas.

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Prechter would argue that very few companies will stay alive, and those few that are still paying dividends will be paying much less

 

Certainly the example of LON:YELL and others escaping bankruptcy via rights issue should not be possible under a Prechter scenario.

 

Markets had a little wobble recently but confidence remains intact. What happens if (when?) confidence goes and markets break is another matter - we will have to wait and see. Lets just hope we dont go there.

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No, I can't. I wish Prechter would pop up to punch his own corner. I am not his spokesperson and I hope he is wrong and you are right on gold for one ;)

 

I just feel like this is a situation where nobody can know what is going to pan out and a modicum of caution wouldn't come amiss.

 

I personally feel more comfortable when there is doubt, I get nervous when something looks like a sure fire bet.

 

 

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Whew! - just finished watching the whole CFTC thing. They went on for 6h with only a couple of 5min breaks! WOW! I was struck by a few points; one big concern against position limits, which we heard from the banks' shills over and over was that 'the market will just go overseas, or move to the OTC derivative market'.

I think the individual trader (Epstein) and Mike Masters did well to counteract that argument; Masters even suggested that if the Gold market moved to Dubai, would you be happy with the government of Dubai standing behind your risk if the exchange failed? :D

 

Epstein also did well describing the mechanism of thousands of contracts totally sinking the price. His testimony is here:

http://www.capitolconnection.net/capcon/cf...03-25_final.pdf

 

 

I liked Adrian Douglas' interjection (even though he was not n the panel!) he managed to bring up the words 'Fail To Deliver', and I got the sense it kinda shocked the commissioners!

 

The issue of multiple ownership and leasing didn't get much air time.

 

The guy from the COMEX (LaSala) shocked me at one point, saying that if there was draining of silver from COMEX the big participants would restock it, i.e. metal would flood in.. (hmm... why restock comex when you can sell elsewhere for more?? - argument did not hold up and he looked clumsy to me.)

 

One thing that was constructve was that someone said that the position limits would have to be not on just a single exchange; but done by institution over many markets (OTC, COMEX...) to seriously gain traction.

 

I wanted also to post this video of one of the comissioners involved today (you might recognise him if you were watching!) Here in this older video, he admits there are seriously large concentrated shorts in the silver market...and that he supports position limits YAY!!! :)

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzphZY429G4

 

And as for Jeff Christian; dropping the Goldman name in his testimony, and reminding Commissioner Gensler that they were both ex-Goldman boys - well, he looked like an asssss to me! :D Also, his argument that things hadn't changed that much over the last decade just did not stand up to me at all... for example see this chart from the World Gold Council of all people: - except now the REGISTERED (PINK) stock is down to just 1.6M oz !!!!!!!!! :D (swivel on that, Jeff!)

comex-stocks.jpg

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Markets had a little wobble recently but confidence remains intact. What happens if (when?) confidence goes and markets break is another matter - we will have to wait and see. Lets just hope we dont go there.

 

The QE Fire Brigade will be called out again.

 

r214354_829784.jpg

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So then for debate sake for example the US could just say oh we have done away with the old regime, remove the Fed, all debts are forgiven and here's your new currency and we will 100:1 swap value for the old ones.

The bit in bold made me think...

 

If governments chose this route to wipe out debts and devalue the currency, does anyone know, based on actual countries' debts, what ratios would actually achieve this?

 

e.g. US 50:1

UK 75:1

 

What initial values would be used in a calculation to work this out?

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Good post! Compelling doesn't even begin to describe the information that came out of that hearing...

 

Why hasn't this caused some commotion? Isn't anyone interested?

 

Whew! - just finished watching the whole CFTC thing. They went on for 6h with only a couple of 5min breaks! WOW! I was struck by a few points; one big concern against position limits, which we heard from the banks' shills over and over was that 'the market will just go overseas, or move to the OTC derivative market'.

I think the individual trader (Epstein) and Mike Masters did well to counteract that argument; Masters even suggested that if the Gold market moved to Dubai, would you be happy with the government of Dubai standing behind your risk if the exchange failed? :D

 

Epstein also did well describing the mechanism of thousands of contracts totally sinking the price. His testimony is here:

http://www.capitolconnection.net/capcon/cf...03-25_final.pdf

 

 

I liked Adrian Douglas' interjection (even though he was not n the panel!) he managed to bring up the words 'Fail To Deliver', and I got the sense it kinda shocked the commissioners!

 

The issue of multiple ownership and leasing didn't get much air time.

 

The guy from the COMEX (LaSala) shocked me at one point, saying that if there was draining of silver from COMEX the big participants would restock it, i.e. metal would flood in.. (hmm... why restock comex when you can sell elsewhere for more?? - argument did not hold up and he looked clumsy to me.)

 

One thing that was constructve was that someone said that the position limits would have to be not on just a single exchange; but done by institution over many markets (OTC, COMEX...) to seriously gain traction.

 

I wanted also to post this video of one of the comissioners involved today (you might recognise him if you were watching!) Here in this older video, he admits there are seriously large concentrated shorts in the silver market...and that he supports position limits YAY!!! :)

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzphZY429G4

 

And as for Jeff Christian; dropping the Goldman name in his testimony, and reminding Commissioner Gensler that they were both ex-Goldman boys - well, he looked like an asssss to me! :D Also, his argument that things hadn't changed that much over the last decade just did not stand up to me at all... for example see this chart from the World Gold Council of all people: - except now the REGISTERED (PINK) stock is down to just 1.6M oz !!!!!!!!! :D (swivel on that, Jeff!)

comex-stocks.jpg

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Good post! Compelling doesn't even begin to describe the information that came out of that hearing...

 

Why hasn't this caused some commotion? Isn't anyone interested?

I just take markets as I find them. I've never believed they were perfectly efficient, or could ever be completely free, but likely corrupted in all manner of ways..... whether by human folly or dastardly agencies such as the cartel. These flaws are part of the market, and knowledge of which can also be used to your advantage. Markets will always be about what is and not what ought to be... and should be traded/ invested in on that basis. I guess that means I'm not a "market fundamentalist".... though reform is always welcome. Consider the trade-off here; the more reform and regulation there is, the less "free" [from government] the market becomes.

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I appreciate there is a balance, but bullying market participants needs to stop. This milestone gives me hope we're heading in the right direction.

 

Consider the trade-off here; the more reform and regulation there is, the less "free" [from government] the market becomes.
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The bit in bold made me think...

 

If governments chose this route to wipe out debts and devalue the currency, does anyone know, based on actual countries' debts, what ratios would actually achieve this?

 

e.g. US 50:1

UK 75:1

 

What initial values would be used in a calculation to work this out?

 

Does it not mean the end of banking system as we know it. Goldmansux, fed will fight tooth and nail to prevent it to get to that state.

 

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The bit in bold made me think...

 

If governments chose this route to wipe out debts and devalue the currency, does anyone know, based on actual countries' debts, what ratios would actually achieve this?

 

e.g. US 50:1

UK 75:1

 

What initial values would be used in a calculation to work this out?

 

 

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Explain why you sold Britain's gold, Gordon Brown told

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...Brown-told.html

The decision to sell the gold – taken by Mr Brown when he was Chancellor – is regarded as one of the Treasury's worst financial mistakes and has cost taxpayers almost £7 billion.

 

Mr Brown and the Treasury have repeatedly refused to disclose information about the gold sale amid allegations that warnings were ignored.

 

Following a series of freedom of information requests from The Daily Telegraph over the past four years, the Information Commissioner has ordered the Treasury to release some details. The Treasury must publish the information demanded within 35 calendar days – by the end of April.

 

The sale is expected to be become a major election issue, casting light on Mr Brown's decisions while at the Treasury.

...

Between 1999 and 2002, Mr Brown ordered the sale of almost 400 tons of the gold reserves when the price was at a 20-year low. Since then, the price has more than quadrupled, meaning the decision cost taxpayers an estimated £7 billion, according to Mike Warburton of the accountants Grant Thornton.

 

It is understood that Mr Brown pushed ahead with the sale despite serious misgivings at the Bank of England. It is not thought that senior Bank experts were even consulted about the decision, which was driven through by a small group of senior Treasury aides close to Mr Brown.

 

.....

How auctions cost taxpayer £7bn

 

The price of gold has quadrupled since Gordon Brown sold more than half of Britain’s reserves.

The Treasury pre-announced its plans to sell 395 tons of the 715 tons held by the Bank of England, which caused prices to fall.

The bullion was sold in 17 auctions between 1999 and 2002, with dealers paying between $256 and $296 an ounce. Since then, the price has increased rapidly. Yesterday, it stood at $1,100 an ounce.

The taxpayer lost an estimated £7 billion, twice the amount lost when Britain left the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

The proceeds from the sales were invested in dollars, euros and yen. In recent years, most other countries have begun buying gold again in large quantities.

 

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Naturally, the Torygraph isn't concerned about the "loss" Geoffrey Howe incurred by not selling in 1980.

 

 

Geoffrey Howe was right not to sell in 1980. The country's gold reserves are not for speculating; it is there for emergencies, for example 1940.

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Geoffrey Howe was right not to sell in 1980. The country's gold reserves are not for speculating; it is there for emergencies, for example 1940.

I know, but the commentary on this is concerned only with the amount Brown "lost" (and gross, not net). Personally I don't consider it a loss if something goes up in price after I sell it. I appreciate they can't make allegations about Brown using the gold sale to buy himself a retirement job at JP Morgan, but there should be more discussion on what the gold is actually for.

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Gold-to-Stocks

002yr.png

Close, very close... to a key target - of about 91.4

 

I didn't wait for that test - I have been buying gold rather aggressively in recent days as:

 

+ PHYS / Sprott Gold trust

+ Some calls on GLD

+ A handful of mining equities

+ "Paper Gold" MACE / Taels thru HSBC

+ Gold coins, now safely stored in my bank vault

 

I like the action in Gold, and it may be set for a run

 

Short Term

zzzr.gif

 

Daily-GLD .. update

xxxz.gif

 

== == + + +

 

For those property lovers, we have a new concept:

We are going to "let our tenant pay for our Gold purchase".

 

001bqq.jpg

 

Here's how this works:

 

+ We sold several flats, generating enough cash to pay off our mortgages, and also get back our capital

+ Profits from flat sales more than cover to cost of one of the remaining flats, which is rented

+ There is a residual mortgage which is more than 50% of our cost, and about 40% of the current value

+ The rental we receive covers the mortgage payments, and rates are now about 2%

 

With the cash now rolling in from flat sales, we considered to pay off the mortgage - but it is so cheap,

that it "seemed a shame" to do that. So...

 

+ Instead of paying off the mortgage, we took the cash amount needed to do that, and bought Gold.

 

Now we are sitting with a situation where: Our profits from selling other flats paid for the flat.

The mortgage is covered by the Gold, and the tenant is "paying off the mortgage."

 

This is a nice situation to be in, but we will be looking for an opportunity to improve it:

 

+ If Property prices spike up, we will sell the flat, repay the mortgage, and maybe buy more gold, or

+ If gold shoots up, let's say by 50%, we can sell 2/3rds of the gold, repay the mortgage, and keep 1/3

 

Done this way, Gold, property and debt can sit nicely in the same portfolio

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IMF Is Now Rejecting Prospective Buyers For Its Gold Stash

 

In an exclusive report, Kitco has just released yet another stunner in the world of precious metals. It turns out that Eric Sprott has attempted to purchase gold from the IMF, according to information provided to Kitco by Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors. "I just spoke with Eric Sprott, who bid to buy [the IMF's remaining gold on the block] and they refuse to sell it." As Kitco points out, "the IMF might be holding out for a bigger buyer or a central bank or for higher prices. But Holmes argues the IMF's rejection of Sprott's bid means markets are being manipulated." Back to Holmes: "I think there is a lot of manipulation done by governments around the world in the currency markets which affect the bond markets so to me it's just normal course." Holmes concludes "with an election year there may be a gold rally that could be two standard deviations, or $300 dollars, to the upside. So you could see gold run to $1300 to $1500 quite easily." This all is occurring as ever more pundits finally realize that as fiats are discredited across the world, the only safe, non-dilutable resource is gold.

 

Here's a link to the Kitco video (2nd video in).

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