50sQuiff Posted May 2, 2010 Report Share Posted May 2, 2010 It's starting to feel like we're approaching an intermediate top here. Sentiment is becoming a little frothy again and I'll sell a significant portion if we blow off to anywhere near $1220. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TW11 Posted May 2, 2010 Report Share Posted May 2, 2010 It's starting to feel like we're approaching an intermediate top here. Sentiment is becoming a little frothy again and I'll sell a significant portion if we blow off to anywhere near $1220. I think the problem is that to buy/sell anything just now you have to take a view on the general equity market. Of all the market commentators and blogs I follow it is hard to find a bearish commentator - even the voiciferous bears from a few months back have gone quiet. This rally has been astonishing in its strength. When I look at the gold and USDX charts then I'd be happy long gold at this point. I think there's some resistance on USDX up around 83 ish (fib retrace) maybe the old support at 82.6 will become resistant. But all that goes out the window if equities head south again. Having said all that it maybe classic wall-of-worry stuff. I am pretty good at catching bottoms but I am absolutely hopeless at selling tops - I always sell too soon. And I am also hopeless with currencies... I'm less inclined now to try and get clever with all this. I wish I had GF's resolve and certainty, at some point the rule book will get torn up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TW11 Posted May 2, 2010 Report Share Posted May 2, 2010 I'm in this position as well. Oct. 2008 is vivid in my memory. Hehe, I dodged Oct '08 but only because the correction back in '06 taught me a very very painful lesson - in an astonishingly short space of time Back then you could read smug comments on various blogs about how it was a lesson that you had to pay for and that you would learn from it. It irritated the hell out of me at the time, but I have to admit that it is true. I am very philosophical about it now. I think that if you are going to buy gold stocks then I think you have to do some basic TA* - I don't want to admit that it works but...... well, it does. *and I admit that my TA is embarrassingly simple but it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 It's been a while since I posted the previous chart for you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 Not too bad. http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold_EUR.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold_GBP.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Infl...arison_GBP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 Wonder if the finalization of the Greek bailout will have any detrimental effect on gold ? Any bailout means money will be printed. Don't fall for the financial talking heads who tell you any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 It's been a while since I posted the previous chart for you all Cool chart that. Something's telling me we might be skipping the summer doldrums bit this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 It's starting to feel like we're approaching an intermediate top here. Sentiment is becoming a little frothy again and I'll sell a significant portion if we blow off to anywhere near $1220. I'm inclined to think the same, but I coudn't for the life of me bring myself to sell the yellow. Rather, will pile in further with dollar reserves. I consider gold my core currency. I'm thinking gold should steadily increase [along the "thin blue line] and the only thing that might really make a dent in it would be another round of forced liquidation. A steady rise in the aggregate price [as opposed to a parabolic rise] would reflect the furthering process of gold's "remonetization" with investors buying it as an alternative desirable form of liquidity/ a currency... outside the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 Gold 1187 in the currency that counts. Is this the parabolic rise? If so, hold onto your hats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 About to shoot through EUR 900!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 ...and moving up nicely in Sterling too New all time high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 We'll be through £800/t oz in a couple of weeks or possibly sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
creditcrunch Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 We'll be through £800/t oz in a couple of weeks or possibly sooner. I think by the end of this week we will be well above 800 GBP. Edit: Based on a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 Anyone like to predict where this is going from here? My view is that i belive the last 6 months have been a mid rally consolidation as pixel8r describes. If you look back at the previous consolidation phases, the subsequent rally has taken out the previous high the first time of asking So will it bounce off the 1220 level or is it up and away from here? I think the latter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 Anyone like to predict where this is going from here? My view is that i belive the last 6 months have been a mid rally consolidation as pixel8r describes. If you look back at the previous consolidation phases, the subsequent rally has taken out the previous high the first time of asking So will it bounce off the 1220 level or is it up and away from here? I think the latter http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 Yep thats the chart but its missing the intermediate rally highlights. This is what i am getting at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 3, 2010 Report Share Posted May 3, 2010 Anyone like to predict where this is going from here? My view is that i belive the last 6 months have been a mid rally consolidation as pixel8r describes. If you look back at the previous consolidation phases, the subsequent rally has taken out the previous high the first time of asking So will it bounce off the 1220 level or is it up and away from here? I think the latter As predicted, 2010 has proven to be a year of consolidation for gold...... so far. The next few months will be interesting. Will it manage to break out? Will it track sideways in the summer doldrums? Will it get caught up in a general market liquidation? I think the most likely scenario is for the dollar price of gold to continue sideways in a consolidation pattern, remaining very strong considering that the dollar is at the same time strengthening [it could easily strengthen at the same time against "sub-prime currencies such as the pound]. The next big move up would then be at the end of the year or early next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted May 4, 2010 Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 Good moves in gold so far today... Friday's going to be very interesting for a GBP spot price. If we get a hung parliament, gold could go through the roof IMO and the UK gilts market will be battered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted May 4, 2010 Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 Well, I'm holding back for a drop now hopefully in/around August end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmaupoil Posted May 4, 2010 Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 Gold has actually under-performed this winter, it is currently only 15% above last year's peak at the end of the bullish winter season. It seems to be catching up late and aggressively. Could we see £850 in the next 2/3 weeks...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 4, 2010 Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 This is interesting. Both dollar and gold strengthening together. This means dollar is strengthening against Euro [and probably pound also] while gold in turn is strengthening against dollar. Gold must be "doubly" strengthening against Euro/ pound here. This sort of phenomena is the exact kind of thing Exter's reverse liquidity triangle predicts. Converted to an international picture, "sub-prime" currencies such as Euro and Sterling would be further up the triangle... between dollar and less liquid assets. Sure enough: IF for some reason one couldn't bring themselves to buy gold here with pounds, another option would be to buy dollars.... and hope for a pull-back in the dollar price of gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted May 4, 2010 Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 ...... IF for some reason one couldn't bring themselves to buy gold here with pounds, another option would be to buy dollars.... and hope for a pull-back in the dollar price of gold. Good analysis RH, I agree with you, and am buying dollars at the moment with £ monthly savings. Can't stomach buying into the current strength of the GBP price of gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 Good analysis RH, I agree with you, and am buying dollars at the moment with £ monthly savings. Can't stomach buying into the current strength of the GBP price of gold Very good example of a popular delusion: that the price will always come down again. I heard of people who thought that during the Weimar hyperinflation. Quite a few shot themselves afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted May 4, 2010 Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 As predicted, 2010 has proven to be a year of consolidation for gold...... so far. The next few months will be interesting. Will it manage to break out? Will it track sideways in the summer doldrums? Will it get caught up in a general market liquidation. I think the most likely scenario is for the dollar price of gold to continue sideways in a consolidation pattern, remaining very strong considering that the dollar is at the same time strengthening [it could easily strengthen at the same time against "sub-prime currencies such as the pound]. The next big move up would then be at the end of the year or early next. This inovideo backs up what you are saying but I disagree http://www.youtube.com/user/inovideos#p/u/3/Hmmf3Qu0gUg When the gold price hit 1220 last November, I was never conviced that the rally had completed its move. I was looking for 1400+. I just get a gut feeling that we may see a further significant move up from here. To support this. it appears to me that the upward price momentum has been steadily building over the last few weeks ready for a blow off top imho Soemthing else i dont agree with is the tendency for economists to quote the dollar index as a indicator for the future price of gold. As this is a ratio of one fiat currency against a basket of other fiat currencies which are all being debased, then there is no reason to my way of thinking that gold cannot rise alongside a strengthening dollar <edit> just seen post 36 which you make the same point Just my opinion and worth every penny that you paid for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 4, 2010 Report Share Posted May 4, 2010 Very good example of a popular delusion: that the price will always come down again. I heard of people who thought that during the Weimar hyperinflation. Quite a few shot themselves afterwards. There is a good chance the price won't come down. Which is why people that don't own any gold should be buying a little irrespective of price. BUT if for some reason they can't bring themselves to buy then a possible strategy, better than just staying stuck in pounds, is to diversify into dollars. Less than ideal, but a practical solution for some. For those that have a solid holding in gold already, they can afford to wait a bit in dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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