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It's starting to feel like we're approaching an intermediate top here. Sentiment is becoming a little frothy again and I'll sell a significant portion if we blow off to anywhere near $1220.

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It's starting to feel like we're approaching an intermediate top here. Sentiment is becoming a little frothy again and I'll sell a significant portion if we blow off to anywhere near $1220.

 

I think the problem is that to buy/sell anything just now you have to take a view on the general equity market. Of all the market commentators and blogs I follow it is hard to find a bearish commentator - even the voiciferous bears from a few months back have gone quiet. This rally has been astonishing in its strength. When I look at the gold and USDX charts then I'd be happy long gold at this point. I think there's some resistance on USDX up around 83 ish (fib retrace) maybe the old support at 82.6 will become resistant. But all that goes out the window if equities head south again.

 

Having said all that it maybe classic wall-of-worry stuff. I am pretty good at catching bottoms but I am absolutely hopeless at selling tops - I always sell too soon. And I am also hopeless with currencies...

 

I'm less inclined now to try and get clever with all this. I wish I had GF's resolve and certainty, at some point the rule book will get torn up.

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I'm in this position as well. Oct. 2008 is vivid in my memory.

 

Hehe, I dodged Oct '08 but only because the correction back in '06 taught me a very very painful lesson - in an astonishingly short space of time :)

Back then you could read smug comments on various blogs about how it was a lesson that you had to pay for and that you would learn from it. It irritated the hell out of me at the time, but I have to admit that it is true.

 

I am very philosophical about it now. I think that if you are going to buy gold stocks then I think you have to do some basic TA* - I don't want to admit that it works but...... well, it does.

 

*and I admit that my TA is embarrassingly simple but it works.

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Wonder if the finalization of the Greek bailout will have any detrimental effect on gold ?

:lol: Any bailout means money will be printed. Don't fall for the financial talking heads who tell you any different.

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It's been a while since I posted the previous chart for you all

 

pog052010.jpg

Cool chart that. Something's telling me we might be skipping the summer doldrums bit this year. :o

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It's starting to feel like we're approaching an intermediate top here. Sentiment is becoming a little frothy again and I'll sell a significant portion if we blow off to anywhere near $1220.

I'm inclined to think the same, but I coudn't for the life of me bring myself to sell the yellow. Rather, will pile in further with dollar reserves. ;) I consider gold my core currency.

 

I'm thinking gold should steadily increase [along the "thin blue line] and the only thing that might really make a dent in it would be another round of forced liquidation. A steady rise in the aggregate price [as opposed to a parabolic rise] would reflect the furthering process of gold's "remonetization" with investors buying it as an alternative desirable form of liquidity/ a currency... outside the dollar.

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We'll be through £800/t oz in a couple of weeks or possibly sooner.

 

 

I think by the end of this week we will be well above 800 GBP.

 

Edit: Based on a gut feeling.

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Anyone like to predict where this is going from here?

 

My view is that i belive the last 6 months have been a mid rally consolidation as pixel8r describes. If you look back at the previous consolidation phases, the subsequent rally has taken out the previous high the first time of asking

 

So will it bounce off the 1220 level or is it up and away from here? I think the latter

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Anyone like to predict where this is going from here?

 

My view is that i belive the last 6 months have been a mid rally consolidation as pixel8r describes. If you look back at the previous consolidation phases, the subsequent rally has taken out the previous high the first time of asking

 

So will it bounce off the 1220 level or is it up and away from here? I think the latter

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Gold_USD_Pixel8r.png

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Anyone like to predict where this is going from here?

 

My view is that i belive the last 6 months have been a mid rally consolidation as pixel8r describes. If you look back at the previous consolidation phases, the subsequent rally has taken out the previous high the first time of asking

 

So will it bounce off the 1220 level or is it up and away from here? I think the latter

As predicted, 2010 has proven to be a year of consolidation for gold...... so far. The next few months will be interesting. Will it manage to break out? Will it track sideways in the summer doldrums? Will it get caught up in a general market liquidation? I think the most likely scenario is for the dollar price of gold to continue sideways in a consolidation pattern, remaining very strong considering that the dollar is at the same time strengthening [it could easily strengthen at the same time against "sub-prime currencies such as the pound]. The next big move up would then be at the end of the year or early next.

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Good moves in gold so far today...

 

Friday's going to be very interesting for a GBP spot price. If we get a hung parliament, gold could go through the roof IMO and the UK gilts market will be battered.

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Gold has actually under-performed this winter, it is currently only 15% above last year's peak at the end of the bullish winter season. It seems to be catching up late and aggressively.

Could we see £850 in the next 2/3 weeks...?

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This is interesting. Both dollar and gold strengthening together. This means dollar is strengthening against Euro [and probably pound also] while gold in turn is strengthening against dollar. Gold must be "doubly" strengthening against Euro/ pound here. This sort of phenomena is the exact kind of thing Exter's reverse liquidity triangle predicts. Converted to an international picture, "sub-prime" currencies such as Euro and Sterling would be further up the triangle... between dollar and less liquid assets.

 

gd-1.gif

 

 

Exetersinversepyramid.jpg

 

 

 

Sure enough:

 

pound-1.gif

 

 

 

IF for some reason one couldn't bring themselves to buy gold here with pounds, another option would be to buy dollars.... and hope for a pull-back in the dollar price of gold.

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......

IF for some reason one couldn't bring themselves to buy gold here with pounds, another option would be to buy dollars.... and hope for a pull-back in the dollar price of gold.

 

Good analysis RH, I agree with you, and am buying dollars at the moment with £ monthly savings.

 

Can't stomach buying into the current strength of the GBP price of gold

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Good analysis RH, I agree with you, and am buying dollars at the moment with £ monthly savings.

 

Can't stomach buying into the current strength of the GBP price of gold

Very good example of a popular delusion: that the price will always come down again. :lol:

 

I heard of people who thought that during the Weimar hyperinflation. Quite a few shot themselves afterwards.

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As predicted, 2010 has proven to be a year of consolidation for gold...... so far. The next few months will be interesting. Will it manage to break out? Will it track sideways in the summer doldrums? Will it get caught up in a general market liquidation. I think the most likely scenario is for the dollar price of gold to continue sideways in a consolidation pattern, remaining very strong considering that the dollar is at the same time strengthening [it could easily strengthen at the same time against "sub-prime currencies such as the pound]. The next big move up would then be at the end of the year or early next.

 

This inovideo backs up what you are saying but I disagree

 

http://www.youtube.com/user/inovideos#p/u/3/Hmmf3Qu0gUg

 

When the gold price hit 1220 last November, I was never conviced that the rally had completed its move. I was looking for 1400+. I just get a gut feeling that we may see a further significant move up from here. To support this. it appears to me that the upward price momentum has been steadily building over the last few weeks ready for a blow off top imho

 

Soemthing else i dont agree with is the tendency for economists to quote the dollar index as a indicator for the future price of gold. As this is a ratio of one fiat currency against a basket of other fiat currencies which are all being debased, then there is no reason to my way of thinking that gold cannot rise alongside a strengthening dollar

 

<edit> just seen post 36 which you make the same point

 

Just my opinion and worth every penny that you paid for it! :)

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Very good example of a popular delusion: that the price will always come down again. :lol:

 

I heard of people who thought that during the Weimar hyperinflation. Quite a few shot themselves afterwards.

There is a good chance the price won't come down. Which is why people that don't own any gold should be buying a little irrespective of price. BUT if for some reason they can't bring themselves to buy then a possible strategy, better than just staying stuck in pounds, is to diversify into dollars. Less than ideal, but a practical solution for some.

 

For those that have a solid holding in gold already, they can afford to wait a bit in dollars.

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