GOLD

[50sQuiff]

Nice call BTW.

 

Yep, nice call. I took a mini-roasting on Sterling last night and have to hold my hand up. An incredible election really. I knew the polls were wrong. They were, but not quite in the way I thought!

 

Fortunately I went long the dollar last year when it was meant to be toast I still think this is an important day for gold and I'm continuing to sell into it right at the top.

 

 

[ecoface]

Yep, nice call. I took a mini-roasting on Sterling last night and have to hold my hand up. An incredible election really. I knew the polls were wrong. They were, but not quite in the way I thought!

 

Fortunately I went long the dollar last year when it was meant to be toast I still think this is an important day for gold and I'm continuing to sell into it right at the top.

I just sold half my phys holding, which I only invested recently (the other core holding being "hands-off"; contrary to most, I am expecting a short term GBP/ USD rally from today's lows. I anticipate this also taking the shine off gold in GBP terms. I hope to buy back again in 2-4 weeks as I anticipate the new Govt.'s plan to resolve the deficit to be inadequate.

Maybe....!

[narrowescape]

Doubt I am the one to ask, being a latecomer to 'beyond savings in Sterling'.

FWIW Don't the fundamentals point to gold going easily 5 times higher & possibly twice that?

I don't know your circumstances, but if the above occurs & you have kept your gold then you could consider escape (& early retirement) to a far better land.

 

It feels odd to offer my view as it's usually innocent me asking. It's only two years ago that I was reading GF & Cgnao & feeling like a rabbit caught in the headlights.

 

I understand. I switched into gold for the same reasons. In actual fact my gold fund came about from selling my last place (a flat in a not great area) and I always hoped at some point I might be able to buy somewhere nice for cash and I think that point may have arrived. Having lived here for nearly 3 years I know it's a nice house in a nice area so quite happy to consider dropping some roots. I know that house prices could well (almost certainly will) fall further but if we enter into a classic depression then so could gold prices. Likewise the 'hyperinflationary holocaust' may still happen but that could push house prices up at a similar pace so what would I gain ? As far as escaping to another country goes I'm not anywhere near retirement age and don't really have enough money to properly retire. I'd also be bored shitless within months - I'm one of those rare individuals that actually really enjoy their work.

 

Anyway, my landlord seems interested by my suggestion that we might buy this place - he moved from here down to the West Country and now has 3 kids so he won't be moving back. I guess it just comes down to whether we can agree on a price. I await his call with interest....

[G0ldfinger]

Just to add to the discussion: this major German dealer is completely sold out. That applies to gold and silver

 

http://www.westgold.de/html/prizeList.php

[Crashman begins]

Nice call BTW.

 

Yes, but I chickened out and didnt buy any more.

 

Even though I know whats happened & is happening I cant bring myself to put half my house deposit into PM's.

Im already in about 10% .. decisions, decisions

[Bosworth]

I reckon whether or not one does this has to depend on how much of their worth is in gold [percentage wise] and then how much of that position one wants to trade. Still, has to be quite a risk selling gold in this environment and not one I'd like to take.

 

Have you considered trading the more volatile silver instead?

 

To trade silver, it helps to first have a good sized solid core position in gold. Otherwise, you will likely tie yourself in knots trading a silver holding that is also your core bullion holding.

 

With a good core position in gold, it will be easier to sell a good sized silver position when you think it is in the upper range. The best currency to sell silver into would be dollars of course. Then when you feel silver has declined enough buy again.

 

This trade is quite an easy one, psychologically speaking, for me to make as I think in the short/ medium term both silver and dollar are in bull markets. It is just a trade on volatility, with miminal risk, and without trading [losing your position] your less volatile and more precious gold.

 

Why not hold your core holding but short-term trade using ETFs? I have on occasion *red face* shorted gold when I expected the price to fall a bit, but didn't want to risk my core holding. Given how quickly things move when they move, feels like the safest option.

 

Open to other ideas, though...

 

[Crashman begins]

Next time im going with my gut instinct

 

5K in gold / silver very soon.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN076273...ype=marketsNews

 

US gold coin sales surge as investors flee risk

 

* Eagles sales 41,500 so far in May, surpasses normal pace

 

* Blanchard: Thursday was biggest gold sales day in 2010

 

By Frank Tang

 

NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. gold coin sales surged

this week as the anxiety over a euro-zone debt crisis spilled

over into the United States and as Thursday's sudden Wall

Street collapse shook investors.

 

The U.S. Mint sold gold coins this week at twice its normal

pace, and a leading retailer said Thursday was a record day.

Physical gold products such as coins and bars are

traditionally a safe haven for anxious investors in times of

economic and geopolitical crises. On Friday, U.S. stocks turned

negative for the year on fears of another credit crisis.

Gold coin and bar dealers also said investors are turning

to gold coins to protect their nest eggs from financial market

turmoil.

 

"Yesterday was our biggest day of the year in terms of

investors buying gold," said David Beahm, vice president of

marketing at top U.S. retail gold coins dealer Blanchard & Co.

 

"There is no question that the meltdown in the paper assets

yesterday was a huge case for diversification."

[romans holiday]

Why not hold your core holding but short-term trade using ETFs? I have on occasion *red face* shorted gold when I expected the price to fall a bit, but didn't want to risk my core holding. Given how quickly things move when they move, feels like the safest option.

 

Open to other ideas, though...

The main distinction in trading/ holding for me is not between physical and an ETF, but between gold and silver.

 

Gold - however it is held....physical, GM, BV, Perth Mint, ETF [diversity is good here... I use the first four]- is to be...held. Silver can then be traded if you so wish.

[allyjcambo]

The main distinction in trading/ holding for me is not between physical and an ETF, but between gold and silver.

 

Gold - however it is held....physical, GM, BV, Perth Mint, ETF [diversity is good here... I use the first four]- is to be...held. Silver can then be traded if you so wish.

 

RH, I go over and over this in my head. At any time gold can be confiscated/taxed into oblivion by a government. Even gold coins in one's possession. In essence, it's a safe haven as long as the rule of law holds true. But there's the point. If currencies break down then so does the rule of law. In which case, are you not better off holding cigarettes and guns and/or living on a distant farm? Maybe this is a long run consideration but events in Greece show me that holding some gold is irrelevant if there's blood on the street.

[romans holiday]

RH, I go over and over this in my head. At any time gold can be confiscated/taxed into oblivion by a government. Even gold coins in one's possession. In essence, it's a safe haven as long as the rule of law holds true. But there's the point. If currencies break down then so does the rule of law. In which case, are you not better off holding cigarettes and guns and/or living on a distant farm? Maybe this is a long run consideration but events in Greece show me that holding some gold is irrelevant if there's blood on the street.

Sure, anything is possible. there is no such thing as complete security in this world. If people are looking for a security surrogate in gold they are fooling themselves. All we can do is make the best of it. If things go as pear-shaped politically as you suggest, so be it. A gold holding is only money, a means to an end. If I had enough to buy a small farm I would, I hope to have enough in the next few years. I imagine at a later date, and if things become unstuck enough, governments will have to stabilize currencies by tying them back to gold. At this point you could happily exchange your gold for paper representations.... though I imagine I'll still be keeping some.

 

A renewed gold standard may, in the end, be the means by which governments avoid a more dire outcome. Nature would then have become the restraint on government. Call me an optimist [i prefer realist], but I think reason will prevail.

[warpig]

Always excellent market analysis.

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVAg2zPmavU

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdGFyNjTbNw

[electroweak]

They should consider this for gold and silver too; how often have we seen big (~5%) moves in seconds there?

Of course, stocks deserve special treatment. They are special.

 

SEC Said to Consider Rules to Slow `Cascade' Declines Amid Probe of Slump

By Jesse Westbrook

 

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is considering regulatory changes aimed at slowing stock trading during periods of cascading prices, even though the agency hasn’t yet concluded what caused this week’s market plunge, two people familiar with the matter said.

 

SEC officials are weighing whether uniform trading curbs should be imposed across markets for companies that have fallen a certain percentage, said the people, who declined to be identified because the discussions are preliminary. The agency is examining whether any rules should include a time element because a steep decline that occurs in minutes may be more detrimental to markets than a decline over several hours, one of the people said.

[electroweak]

They should consider this for gold and silver too; how often have we seen big (~5%) moves in seconds there?

Of course, stocks deserve special treatment. They are special.

 

SEC Said to Consider Rules to Slow `Cascade' Declines Amid Probe of Slump

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...eeQ6A&pos=2

By Jesse Westbrook

 

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is considering regulatory changes aimed at slowing stock trading during periods of cascading prices, even though the agency hasn’t yet concluded what caused this week’s market plunge, two people familiar with the matter said.

 

SEC officials are weighing whether uniform trading curbs should be imposed across markets for companies that have fallen a certain percentage, said the people, who declined to be identified because the discussions are preliminary. The agency is examining whether any rules should include a time element because a steep decline that occurs in minutes may be more detrimental to markets than a decline over several hours, one of the people said.

 

:D :D :D -gotta give it to 'em tho for giving us buying opportunities.

Considering we've gone up >$100 since this..

[Schaublin]

Always excellent market analysis.

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVAg2zPmavU

 

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdGFyNjTbNw

 

 

I don't normally watch videos but did watch these - interesting. In the second video, Steve Myers says that 'Mom and Pop' are not aware of gold yet and that we are some way from that phase. This set me thinking about some shortages of bullion coins at the moment. I wonder how the cumulative buy-and-hold mentality of the small investor may be affecting the situation - if at all. Without any reliable numbers, it is all guesswork of course but I would have thought that wealthy buyers taking delivery of bullion - out of the system would be in the form of kilogram and 4000z bars. So why the apparent shortages of 1oz bullion coins?

[50sQuiff]

Well, my dalliance with trading gold is not going well. Not horribly (more of an opportunity loss than a material loss), but not successful either. This has only underlined the importance of building a core position, for which I credit several posters on GEI for their good advice. Gold is my core savings vehicle that I add to every month, and is well and truly separate from any speculative activity. If I'd been trading silver on the other hand, I'd have been doing a lot better!

 

On the subject of gold savings vehicles, did anyone else receive the recent GoldMoney survey about debit cards? They're gauging customer demand for a GoldMoney debit card, for drawing cash and making transactions directly from your holding. Very interesting development, for those looking far into the future and fearing punitive capital gains taxes on gold sales.

[Wanderer]

I'm probably going to shift some of my trading profits (sterling shorts, VXX etc - see my trading diary in the investment section) into physical gold and am happily browsing on CoinInvestDirect.com

 

Two questions: I've never had any problems with CID, but could I ask if anyone else ever has?

 

Secondly, why are Sovereigns generally c.£20 an ounce of gold cheaper than any thing else?

 

As far as I can tell: 1 oz on BV trades at about £817 today. 1oz bullion bar or 1 oz gold round on CID costs c.£859. I'm wary of these as I am warned of assaying costs etc. when you resell. The cheapest gold oz coins on CID are pandas which are about £883. However, I think I can buy an oz worth of gold in sovereigns at about £868 an oz. In my eyes, sovereigns have many advantages. Although they aren't as pretty or chunky as big oz coins, their smallness is a benefit in terms of sale (divisibility) and transportation, hiding etc. As with Britannias they are tax free in terms of CGT. As you know I'm a Civil Servant and have to scrupulously obey the tax rules so this is a big advantage. Given this, you'd expect them to be MORE expensive than oz rounds, not less! (Other small coins are). So why are they cheaper? Or is my maths wrong.....?

 

 

[Schaublin]

I'm probably going to shift some of my trading profits (sterling shorts, VXX etc - see my trading diary in the investment section) into physical gold and am happily browsing on CoinInvestDirect.com

 

Two questions: I've never had any problems with CID, but could I ask if anyone else ever has?

 

Secondly, why are Sovereigns generally c.£20 an ounce of gold cheaper than any thing else?

 

As far as I can tell: 1 oz on BV trades at about £817 today. 1oz bullion bar or 1 oz gold round on CID costs c.£859. I'm wary of these as I am warned of assaying costs etc. when you resell. The cheapest gold oz coins on CID are pandas which are about £883. However, I think I can buy an oz worth of gold in sovereigns at about £868 an oz. In my eyes, sovereigns have many advantages. Although they aren't as pretty or chunky as big oz coins, their smallness is a benefit in terms of sale (divisibility) and transportation, hiding etc. As with Britannias they are tax free in terms of CGT. As you know I'm a Civil Servant and have to scrupulously obey the tax rules so this is a big advantage. Given this, you'd expect them to be MORE expensive than oz rounds, not less! (Other small coins are). So why are they cheaper? Or is my maths wrong.....?

 

 

I think you will find that Pandas are (used to be) slightly more expensive than other bullion coins so do not compare them with Sovs - which are generally the same cost pro-rata as Krugs Maples etc but taking your example: Panda £883 x .235 = £207 so not too much out as their ordinary Sovs are about that. For someone living in the UK, I can see no better option than Sovereigns but when multiple kilograms are being considered, The one ounce bullion coins are convenient.

 

Edit: I have used CID several times in the past and found it a well thought-out and prompt transaction.

[Kent]

Secondly, why are Sovereigns generally c.£20 an ounce of gold cheaper than any thing else?

 

As far as I can tell: 1 oz on BV trades at about £817 today. 1oz bullion bar or 1 oz gold round on CID costs c.£859. I'm wary of these as I am warned of assaying costs etc. when you resell. The cheapest gold oz coins on CID are pandas which are about £883. However, I think I can buy an oz worth of gold in sovereigns at about £868 an oz. In my eyes, sovereigns have many advantages. Although they aren't as pretty or chunky as big oz coins, their smallness is a benefit in terms of sale (divisibility) and transportation, hiding etc. As with Britannias they are tax free in terms of CGT. As you know I'm a Civil Servant and have to scrupulously obey the tax rules so this is a big advantage. Given this, you'd expect them to be MORE expensive than oz rounds, not less! (Other small coins are). So why are they cheaper? Or is my maths wrong.....?

 

Your maths is correct and you highlight something interesting about the current market.

 

At a quick glance sovereigns seem to be priced accordingly weight for weight to other fractional coins; a South African 2 Rand, for example, with a gold content of 7.32g is priced at £204.29 and a Elisabeth II sov is £204.78

 

What I think you have observed is the current popularity of the larger 1 ozt coins which are in shorter supply now. I have never seen the CID site so low on stock, even compared to past periods of heavy panic buying.

 

In my view, smaller coins get overlooked by many buyers and the purchase of sovereigns, fractional britannias and other historical fractional European coins are a real bargain to be had.

[Schaublin]

Your maths is correct and you highlight something interesting about the current market.

 

At a quick glance sovereigns seem to be priced accordingly weight for weight to other fractional coins; a South African 2 Rand, for example, with a gold content of 7.32g is priced at £204.29 and a Elisabeth II sov is £204.78

What I think you have observed is the current popularity of the larger 1 ozt coins which are in shorter supply now. I have never seen the CID site so low on stock, even compared to past periods of heavy panic buying.

 

In my view, smaller coins get overlooked by many buyers and the purchase of sovereigns, fractional britannias and other historical fractional European coins are a real bargain to be had.

 

 

You are right about this - a year ago an ordinary Sovereign was slightly more expensive pro-rata than a Krugerrand - difficult to check now as the 1 ounce bullion coins seem to be disappearing off the shelves!

[VictorBroom]

Some information here regarding the Gold Vault at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

http://cryptome.org/eyeball/gold-vault/gold-vault-frbny.htm

 

General design, plans etc.

[drbubb]

SOME CAUTION is called for

 

Gold-in-Euros has reached a key resistance level.

 

 

Will it die here, or push up to the next one?

[G0ldfinger]

...

Will it die here, or push up to the next one?

 

Now that USD, EUR and GBP are dead men walking, what would one have to fear with gold?

[Crashman begins]

 

Now that USD, EUR and GBP are dead men walking, what would one have to fear with gold?

 

Lots of bad news appearing this weekend.. last minute order i think

 

[Jake]

 

Now that USD, EUR and GBP are dead men walking, what would one have to fear with gold?

Too much Optimism and massive deleveraging is what I fear most, right now.

[Errol]

Nothing to fear at all. A drop of hundreds of euros/pounds would be excellent!

 

Cheaper gold!