GOLD

[GTG]

The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either. The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either. Watch the second excerpt from Robert Prechter's May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task to hear what Prechter thinks is in store for the U.S. currency and gold.

[50sQuiff]

To echo the sentiments elsewhere on the board, we still have to pay close attention to Prechter. I think he's wrong on gold for various reasons, but he's still the only person to call the 2008 financial crisis, exactly as it played out. I can't think of anyone else who came out strongly bullish on the USD in Q3/4 last year either - brilliant call.

 

I think it would be great if we could create some questions for Bob about gold and get Frizzers to put them to him.

[warpig]

I like this chart, it says it all IMO. Good to see you posting here again Steve.

 

 

RH, you keep plotting with a linear scale over many years.

You could get away with that with very low % increases, but you're making severe errors with gold at 20%+ per year.

Click the log option and look again. I think you'll see a different picture

 

It's a pain Netdania doesn't offer the drawing option on log plots I know, but it's got to be done.

 

PS I've posted both versions here: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2883

[warpig]

You seem to have over looked the financial world is crashing. Trading gold for silver.... Are you sure that's a trade you're prepared to promote?

 

Another option for those with gold and nervous of a hit to the price - yet wanting to maintain their bullion position - is to trade for silver. The ratio is 67 odd now and if it gets to 80/85 on deleveraging it may prove profitable to trade some for silver. When the ratio recovers to 60 odd would be the time to jump back to gold.

 

The conventional approach has been to go from gold to silver at around 80 and then back from silver to gold at around 50 [some even looking for a lower ratio]. Yet this might be too optimistic in an on again/ off again deleveraging environment. A better band would be a higher one of 85/90 and 60. The ratio looks to be going higher, so it is better to now be in gold.

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

Here's the logarithmic:

Let's add a few more years.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Gold_USD_LOG.html

[G0ldfinger]

Longterm gold:silver as a log-chart (makes sense given that this is the price of gold expressed in silver). Gold is still in its 22.1% most expensive trading days since 1885.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Gold...-Ratio_LOG.html

[romans holiday]

To echo the sentiments elsewhere on the board, we still have to pay close attention to Prechter. I think he's wrong on gold for various reasons, but he's still the only person to call the 2008 financial crisis, exactly as it played out. I can't think of anyone else who came out strongly bullish on the USD in Q3/4 last year either - brilliant call.

 

I think it would be great if we could create some questions for Bob about gold and get Frizzers to put them to him.

There were a few here at GEI that got bullish on the dollar when market bearishness was at all time highs in Q3/ 4 last year. This was before the dollar bottomed with the Dubai crisis.

[romans holiday]

You seem to have over looked the financial world is crashing. Trading gold for silver.... Are you sure that's a trade you're prepared to promote?

The operative word was some.

 

A while back I moved my core silver to gold for that very reason. What I'm suggesting here is a trade to be done with just a part of your gold and only if metals first weaken with the ratio going above 80. With the market being so volatile there is a good chance the ratio will then snap back to 60 odd, where you'd go to gold again. A small speculative trade gold/ silver in the context of having also a core non-tradable position in gold. Anyway, i thought you were a silver bull.... have you swapped to gold of late?

 

Also, I mentioned this as a strategy for those who might be nervous of the dollar price. If the gold US price did decline a little here, there is the option for them of selling gold for silver [on a higher ratio] rather than selling for dollars.

[Steve Netwriter]

I like this chart, it says it all IMO. Good to see you posting here again Steve.

 

Hi warpig,

I'm just trying to maximise efficiency at the moment, and for me that means maximum time thinking/researching/learning and time for writing articles, and minimum time participating in forum discussions.

 

I do pop in now and again, but I try hard to resist the urge to post replies.

 

I'm currently doing a bit of reading about the history of gold (and silver etc). id5's great reply on one of my threads has been a great help (many thanks id5).

My interest in history has increased since then. I just need more time!

[romans holiday]

Dollar index strengthening. Euro tanking again. Euro Gold up. US Gold showing signs of stabilizing here.

[kernull]

hey folks, i wrote this article on SA

it is not in the GOLD category because guidelines of SA do not allow publish strictly TA articles on the main page. So, if you want to help me to redistribute it , please be my guest, i am also promoting it.

Basicaly, the idea is that i found a potential long term Head & Shoulder pattern, still to be completed of course, but it looks very convincing. Check it out.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/481054-k...bears-long-term

[Schaublin]

hey folks, i wrote this article on SA

it is not in the GOLD category because guidelines of SA do not allow publish strictly TA articles on the main page. So, if you want to help me to redistribute it , please be my guest, i am also promoting it.

Basicaly, the idea is that i found a potential long term Head & Shoulder pattern, still to be completed of course, but it looks very convincing. Check it out.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/481054-k...bears-long-term

 

So much time and effort spent on alchemy. If the sum of all human wisdom, fear, greed and stupidity was factored in with black-swan events and ponzi-scheme economics then integrated with market manipulation (allegedly) and that equation is represented by a squiggly line, I would love to meet the person that can figure out where the line will be on three consecutive Wednesdays.

[warpig]

Sorry I missed that "operative" word...

 

Yes I have a big boot in each of the gold and silver camps.

 

The operative word was some.

 

A while back I moved my core silver to gold for that very reason. What I'm suggesting here is a trade to be done with just a part of your gold and only if metals first weaken with the ratio going above 80. With the market being so volatile there is a good chance the ratio will then snap back to 60 odd, where you'd go to gold again. A small speculative trade gold/ silver in the context of having also a core non-tradable position in gold. Anyway, i thought you were a silver bull.... have you swapped to gold of late?

 

Also, I mentioned this as a strategy for those who might be nervous of the dollar price. If the gold US price did decline a little here, there is the option for them of selling gold for silver [on a higher ratio] rather than selling for dollars.

[warpig]

I know what you mean, time is precious at the moment, if only there were more hours in the day!

 

Do you mind if we link your work to this thread? Your bullish sentiment is sorrily missed!

 

Hi warpig,

I'm just trying to maximise efficiency at the moment, and for me that means maximum time thinking/researching/learning and time for writing articles, and minimum time participating in forum discussions.

 

I do pop in now and again, but I try hard to resist the urge to post replies.

 

I'm currently doing a bit of reading about the history of gold (and silver etc). id5's great reply on one of my threads has been a great help (many thanks id5).

My interest in history has increased since then. I just need more time!

[azazel]

hey folks, i wrote this article on SA

it is not in the GOLD category because......

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/481054-k...bears-long-term

 

 

"My ultimate low for gold is $320" ......Errol will be pleased, although I think it is a rediculous suggestion and you have been wrong for years.

[warpig]

I think he must mean the low will be $320 / 3 grams gold.

 

"My ultimate low for gold is $320" ......Errol will be pleased, although I think it is a rediculous suggestion and you have been wrong for years.

[warpig]

[romans holiday]

Dollar index strengthening. Euro tanking again. Euro Gold up. US Gold showing signs of stabilizing here.

Both safe havens dollar and gold strengthening against Euro. Gold is looking like the anti-Euro now.

[kernull]

So much time and effort spent on alchemy. If the sum of all human wisdom, fear, greed and stupidity was factored in with black-swan events and ponzi-scheme economics then integrated with market manipulation (allegedly) and that equation is represented by a squiggly line, I would love to meet the person that can figure out where the line will be on three consecutive Wednesdays.

 

i am only sharing my work to open the eyes of people who has them closed, i do not pretend to cure blind people who are inverting fundamentals to support they buys. you are gold bug, fine, i know you will die holding your longs.

 

and if i was wrong for years, i am not going to give up because of that, the thing had deteriorating technicals for years too, it is a matter of time before the greed and stupidity of gold bugs will punish them, just like Walstreet, i see no difference absolutely.

[romans holiday]

 

 

I thought this chart was interesting. It maps the NZ dollar/ US dollar against gold/US dollar. The NZ dollar [the kiwi] got pounded in the 2008 round of deleveraging... going from .80 to .50. Gold at this time also got taken down a bit. Yet even now as the kiwi is getting once again pounded, gold looks to be holding up a lot better. I think this reflects the fact that gold is now more monetized in the minds of investors, and more resistant to the kind of deleveraging that hits commodities and stocks.

 

You could also say that its status is in the process of going from a commodity currency to a reserve currency.

[50sQuiff]

 

 

I thought this chart was interesting. It maps the NZ dollar/ US dollar against gold/UD dollar. The NZ dollar [the kiwi] got pounded in the 2008 roud of deleveraging... going from .80 to .50. Gold at this time also got taken down a bit. Yet even now as the kiwi is getting once again pounded, gold looks to be holding up a lot better. I think this reflects the fact that gold is now more monetized in the minds of investors, and more resistant to the kind of deleveraging that hits commodities and stocks.

 

Quite. Today is going to be a huge acid test isn't it? Big gap down for the S&P - what will our favourite re-emerging currency do?

[romans holiday]

Quite. Today is going to be a huge acid test isn't it? Big gap down for the S&P - what will our favourite re-emerging currency do?

Replace the submerging ones?

 

I reckon it could track sideways for a bit on Euro weakness and dollar strength.

 

 

Edit: My kiwi brother-in-law bought a heap of gold [after I scared the life out of him] with very weak Kiwi dollars at the bottom of that deleveraging pit. Gold for him was $2000. The price in kiwi dollars then proceeded to crash as the kiwi strengthened, putting him underwater for these past 2 years. Gold has finally recovered back to that price.... and I now feel safer about getting back to NZ

[G0ldfinger]

Both safe havens dollar and gold strengthening against Euro. Gold is looking like the anti-Euro now.

Gold is anti-fiat. The next Dollar-roasting will come.

[Schaublin]

i am only sharing my work to open the eyes of people who has them closed, i do not pretend to cure blind people who are inverting fundamentals to support they buys. you are gold bug, fine, i know you will die holding your longs.

 

and if i was wrong for years, i am not going to give up because of that, the thing had deteriorating technicals for years too, it is a matter of time before the greed and stupidity of gold bugs will punish them, just like Walstreet, i see no difference absolutely.

 

I am not a gold bug - more of a coal bug really - I just don't have the room to store the stuff.

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

 

I thought this chart was interesting. It maps the NZ dollar/ US dollar against gold/US dollar. The NZ dollar [the kiwi] got pounded in the 2008 round of deleveraging...

 

it had nothing to do with deleveraging. credit isn't money, remember.

 

no, a far more probable cause is the the fact that the NZ Gov't/Central Bank pissed away US$9 bil (US$3000 for every single person in New Zealand) propping up the US Dollar via currency swaps.

 

see 2 min 27 sec:

 

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