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Can't take this guy seriously anymore. He doesn't even bother to look at inflation-adjusted asset prices and price ratios.

 

EDIT: Also, gold is the world shadow currency (momentarily in the shadow, I should add). Restricting it to a metals subforum just shows that he is as moronic as the guys over at HPC.

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I suppose the opposite of a smackdown is a... smackup? :unsure:

 

& in silver too, at the same moment. What happened oh great learned ones?

 

Zerohedge called it this way:- "The LBMA's Fair Value Prevention Team Goes For A Fish And Chips Break..."

Nonsense, a fish & chip shop wont be open at that time!

 

It's another one I can measure in 'pension years worth' though; - why shouldn't I have cheap thrills :)

 

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Can't take this guy seriously anymore. He doesn't even bother to look at inflation-adjusted asset prices and price ratios.

 

EDIT: Also, gold is the world shadow currency (momentarily in the shadow, I should add). Restricting it to a metals subforum just shows that he is as moronic as the guys over at HPC.

 

Quite.

 

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Jake,

Much to my surprise, as a result of my conversation with FOFOA, I got two charts, one for GoldHouses and one for GoldOil, giving FOFOA's probability for a range of rates.

 

I think that's a pretty sensible way to present it. It's here:

http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node...=1#comment-4056

 

This avoids the problem of predicting in US$ terms, since one cannot know the true value of the US$ at that time.

 

As you can see, the predictions I tend to quote are at the bottom of the bell curve, so plausible according to FOFOA, but unlikely, because they are too low.

 

You may also wish to consider my catastrophe theory point. As is often the case, I don't think one can reliably predict when.

 

A Warning About my Gold Predictions and Catastrophe Theory by Steve Netwriter

http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2956

Hi Steve, Many thanks for that. You talk of going down the rabbit hole. Is this the feeling I get when I read pages on your forum are WAY longer than any forum. ;) Fascinating stuff, even though I feel I am drowning...maybe I am learning to swim. :lol:

May I ask what kind of world we will be living in under the scenario of Goldhouses/GoldOil? My interest always has been GoldHouses really. I do feel like someone has 'beamed me up' to a world beyond my comprehension. So I ask again what sort of world will we be living in when the average house goes for 2-5 oz. Or 1oz. How will I change the gold for the house. I presume I won't just be wandering down to the bank/estate agent, coin in hand and picking a house...or maybe I will, if gold transactions aren't totally outlawed.

The coversations (with Captain) are like wandering into a Dylan song where the lyrics seem to have another meaning than what they are saying. Still I am enjoying them...and Dylan has always been my favorite. :lol:

 

Really need that Guide for Dummies. (Gets wallet out and buys more gold at record highs saying 'hell, its 'cheap' REALLY'.)

I need a drink, but it's only 2:30...

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Good to see such scepticism about these price levels - room to run surely?

 

It's so funny that these financial 'experts' are cautioning against an allocation of more than 5% gold, yet at the same time their poor suckers are probably fully invested in stocks, REITs and long-term bonds.

 

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there are fears that those buying in now could find it is not the safe haven they had hoped for.

 

I had lunch with two of those 'fears' at the weekend. Both had bought BTLs last year because the Brown one had trashed their savings. They didn't really want to do it but felt compelled to protect themselves

 

I asked if they had considered precious metals.

 

"Oh you mean gold?" Both had decided that it was too risky because it relied on other people wanting something useless, other than for jewellery, in order for it to increase in value. It relies on fashion, one said.

 

 

 

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I had lunch with two of those 'fears' at the weekend. Both had bought BTLs last year because the Brown one had trashed their savings. They didn't really want to do it but felt compelled to protect themselves

 

I asked if they had considered precious metals.

 

"Oh you mean gold?" Both had decided that it was too risky because it relied on other people wanting something useless, other than for jewellery, in order for it to increase in value. It relies on fashion, one said.

 

The levels of ignorance about monetary history is staggering isn't it? It's this attitude that tells me I should continue to accumulate every month.

 

If you look at the 'Investment' section of The Times, that Concrete Jungle posted a link to, you can see where gold currently ranks in the editorial pecking order. Believe me, the press are incredibly perceptive in reflecting the thoughts and fears of their readership.

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/investment/

 

1. Collectibles

2. Equity funds

3. 'Unconventional investing' - which ramps property and stocks

4. Sceptical article about gold

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I was fascinated by THIS LINK that takes you to the six safest places for your savings. It's only 15 months old; kind of them.

 

Regarding my weekend lunch. How could I have forgotten that both said gold was in a bubble.

I agreed with them, quoting Dominic's gold v property article as proof that gold was messing with the natural flow of statistics.

It's great when people agree with something mindless that you just made up. :)

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Collectibles are the last thing you should own at a time like now. :blink:

 

The levels of ignorance about monetary history is staggering isn't it? It's this attitude that tells me I should continue to accumulate every month.

 

If you look at the 'Investment' section of The Times, that Concrete Jungle posted a link to, you can see where gold currently ranks in the editorial pecking order. Believe me, the press are incredibly perceptive in reflecting the thoughts and fears of their readership.

 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/investment/

 

1. Collectibles

2. Equity funds

3. 'Unconventional investing' - which ramps property and stocks

4. Sceptical article about gold

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"Oh you mean gold?" Both had decided that it was too risky because it relied on other people wanting something useless, other than for jewellery, in order for it to increase in value. It relies on fashion, one said.

:rolleyes:

 

(1) There is a 6,000 year fashion of using gold as money (maybe more).

 

(2) There is a 6,000 year fashion of using houses as spaces to live in (maybe more).

 

I don't see any danger of one of these fashions going out of fashion anytime soon. Although, the second one has undergone major changes recently. Tthink of all the highrises that have popped up.

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Scary chart of the day. The Aussie dollar is once again collapsing against the US dollar. If the Aussie declines 25%, revisiting its low to 60 odd [and gold stays relatively stable against US dollar], gold priced in Aussie could very likely go ballistic to $2000 odd over the next few months. :o So much for summer doldrums.

 

Same applies to those holding kiwi dollars.... only worse... gold is now nearly NZD $2000 I believe, and won't take much to see it go to 2500. Ouch.

 

Two options... buy gold or dollars... or both.

 

 

ag.gif

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Today should be an interesting session in the PM sector. Are we seeing a bullish Cup & Handle formation in the process of breaking out to a measured target of around $1450, or are we seeing a bearish Double Top forming, leading to a deeper correction that shakes out recent panic buying? Bullish case supported by established and healthy looking long term trend. Bearish case supported by bearish divergence, i.e., rising prices, declining RSI and MACD going back to the December high. Looks like we have reached a crossroads once again ... ;)

 

Picture12-1.png

 

 

For what its worth, Gary Tanashian suspects that Prechter has once again put a floor under the price of Gold with his most recent comments that Gold is not a safehaven! :lol:

 

Gold Bullish...

 

Sorry Bob, but you have provided a floor for gold all the way up from 310 (in my experience at least). You are a really smart man who I count as one of my influences. But your take on gold, while a bit more sophisticated than the average 'deflationist', is just wrong. Get over it.

 

...

 

In spite of this, I recommend people get up to speed on Prechter's general views on deflation and I honestly tell you that I read everything EWI puts out for free, although I no longer subscribe to their services.


 

Prechter interview attached here: LINK

 

Meanwhile, Tom O'Brien remains bearish and expects to see a double top with a correction down to at least 1075.

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Meanwhile, Tom O'Brien remains bearish and expects to see a double top with a correction down to at least 1075.

That was a big call by T O'Brien. It didn't really make sense to me that he was saying sell gold [maybe I got that wrong, and he was only suggesting trading a litlle... but still]. The risk/ reward ratio just doesn't make it worthwhile.

 

Today should be an interesting session in the PM sector. Are we seeing a bullish Cup & Handle formation in the process of breaking out to a measured target of around $1450, or are we seeing a bearish Double Top forming, leading to a deeper correction that shakes out recent panic buying? Bullish case supported by established and healthy looking long term trend. Bearish case supported by bearish divergence, i.e., rising prices, declining RSI and MACD going back to the December high. Looks like we have reached a crossroads once again ...

 

Or just sideways for the summer..... B)... while both gold and dollar strengthen against all else.

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this is a BIGGIE re pension funds

 

have maxed out my ft.com free access so

 

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/art....aspx?id=340227

 

By Financial Times | 06-06-10 | 02:48 AM By Ruth Sullivan

 

Investors are taking flight to precious metals, particularly gold, as concerns grow about sovereign debt.

 

Worries over eurozone debt burden and fears of a possible resurgence of inflation are driving investors to an asset class traditionally perceived as a safe haven.

 

“People are looking for somewhere to put their money. They are looking at gold as an alternative currency exposure,” says Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities, an exchange traded product provider.

 

Gold funds tracked by EPFR, the US global fund data group, saw $5.7bn (£3.9bn, €4.7bn) of net inflows in the three weeks to May 19, of which nearly $5bn went into exchange traded funds.

 

Investment demand drove up the price of spot gold to a nominal record high of $1,248 a troy ounce in May, although it has slipped slightly since then.

 

Gold ETP flows hit a record of $26bn to May 25, from the beginning of 2009, buying more than 2,000 tonnes of the precious metal, according to Barclays Capital.

 

The SPDR Gold Shares, the worlds’ largest gold ETF, is also seeing huge inflows into its physically backed product, holding a record 1,200 tonnes with a value of almost $47bn on May 20.

 

At ETF Securities, Mr Brooks has seen “larger flows in the past month into physically backed gold ETCs than at the height of the financial crisis”. In one week last month (May 7-14), trading on its ETC platform hit an all-time high of more than $2bn, driven by strong trading volumes in precious metals. Gold made up almost half of the trading, while platinum and palladium accounted for 12 per cent.

 

This month will also see the launch of the Physical Gold ETC from db x-trackers, who have until now focused on ETFs. Most of the inflows into physically-backed gold stem from institutional European investors trying to reduce exposure to the euro, says Mr Brooks. In the US, investors are getting their first taste of physically-backed platinum and palladium ETCs, recently launched by ETFS.

 

A general surge in international investment between January and early May for both metals saw palladium prices rise by 35 per cent and platinum by almost 19 per cent. However, prices declined recently as some investors took profits after a stellar run, particularly in palladium. Both metals are used by the car industry in catalytic converters.

 

Although it may seem ETPs are eclipsing more traditional types of investing such as actively managed commodity funds, fund managers say they are also seeing increasing interest.

 

Evy Hambro, fund manager of the BlackRock Gold and General fund, which invests mostly in gold companies and a few platinum and diamond ones, has been getting a spate of enquiries from private family offices, hedge funds, pension funds and retail investors.

 

The classic question they ask is “whether to own gold through an ETF or invest in a [traditional] fund”, he says. Hedge funds have also been building up their positions in gold, including the Soros Quantum Fund, which has $600m invested in gold ETFs, according to the World Gold Council.

 

Wealthy investors are also big buyers of gold ETFs, especially larger investors, in addition to buying bullion for their own vaults, according to Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment at the World Gold Council.

 

Tales abound of family offices trying to rent additional vault space in London. At Schroders Private Bank, Rupert Robinson, chief executive, has held an average of 8-10 per cent of clients’ portfolios in gold and gold stocks in the past 18 months.

 

Sovereign wealth funds are also becoming goldbugs. Last December, China Investment Corp, the Chinese sovereign wealth fund, invested $1.45m in the SPDR Gold Trust, while central banks have shifted from selling to buying, helping to push up the price.

 

But perhaps it is pension funds that are making the biggest change in direction. “Traditionally pension funds shied away from gold and commodities,” says Mr Grubb. In the past, pension fund trustees said gold and other precious metals were difficult to value and did not have a yield, “but this is beginning to change”, he adds.

 

US pension schemes, in particular, have been buying gold, including the Teachers Retirement Scheme of Texas and the New Jersey Division of Investment. The former scheme invested $125m in the SPDR Gold Trust last October and a similar amount in precious metal mining stocks, setting up a separate gold portfolio to hold the investments, according to the World Gold Council.

 

However, concerns about gold becoming the next bubble are surfacing. At Davos, earlier this year, George Soros warned low interest rates could generate new bubbles, including gold.

 

Others are more optimistic. Mr Robinson says there are “signs gold may be becoming over-owned and too fashionable in the short-term”, but in the long-term “it is a good asset to hang on to”. He believes “it could easily reach $2,000 an ounce within the next five years”.

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Someone needs to explain to Pretcher what a giffen good is. I know this isn't technically correct, but as gold re-establishes itself as a monetary safe haven it will stimulate demand, he doesn't get this because he thinks gold is just a commodity. Seriously I'm sick to the back teeth of this bloke... Argghhhh!

 

For what its worth, Gary Tanashian suspects that Prechter has once again put a floor under the price of Gold with his most recent comments that Gold is not a safehaven! :lol:

 

Meanwhile, Tom O'Brien remains bearish and expects to see a double top with a correction down to at least 1075.

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But perhaps it is pension funds that are making the biggest change in direction. “Traditionally pension funds shied away from gold and commodities,” says Mr Grubb. In the past, pension fund trustees said gold and other precious metals were difficult to value and did not have a yield, “but this is beginning to change”, he adds.

The market would not be able to handle such volumes. My guess is that these funds will all get stuffed with nake gold shorts, or similar. Or it's just gonna explode.

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