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Sorry I'm very short of time these days, so forgive me for not replying in detail, but it would take me an hour or so to illustrate my point. I believe it only tells the first part of 2 stories...

 

The longer the time frame, the better logarithmic. If you're looking for short/ medium term corrections then linear would be better, wouldn't it? The linear chart I posted with the trend lines only covers the last few years.

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HUI monthly ascending triangle breakouts since the beginning of the gold secular bull market - as we can see, we are on the cusp of a new breakout.

 

 

 

 

My work is calling for a major peak in gold/HUI in late March 2011 and I'll try and pin that to a day or two nearer the time - I personally think Jim Sinclair's date for the 2nd week in January is going to be too early.

 

Here's Catflap's very short track record so far!

 

I think in time rather than price but a toppy price and other technical indicators around a projected peak should all come together. Gold peaked over 6 weeks earlier than equities, but the points I used for equities are still the same which gives me a projected peak of April 7, 2010. A slightly different way gives me a date of April 11, but that's a Sunday so I would say April 12 - so somewhere between those dates is my best guess but it could be way too early.

 

I've not tried forecasting likely peaks for gold before - I don't have the confirming market breadth data like I do with equities or a gold VIX so I wouldn't put too much faith in it. I will however relax and see gold run up in March and then get more cautious as we get to early April.

 

Gold/HUI peaked on April 9, 2010

 

No prediction was made for May 2010

 

 

I agree with the gold forecast for June - I've got the end of June for a peak with my own work.

 

All my work is based on HUI and I am long gold mining stocks looking for a peak towards the end of next month (I'll put it here for posterity, but I'm looking for a peak around June 20/21) before a correction and then another move higher into late March 2011 from where I'll be out completely.

 

The new highs that I'm expecting HUI to make between now and early next year will mean the 2008 lows don't get violated again.

 

Gold/HUI peaked on June 18, 2010

 

..... but I should have said June 18/21 (if you believe me lol) since I was taking the date before June 21 off Stockcharts which only contains trading days, not Saturdays and Sundays and June 20 was a Sunday - doh!

 

At least I'm more accurate than Tom O'Brien, have all my positions still and am not shorting gold going into the breakout :P

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gg.gif

 

 

Who said buy and hold is dead. Buying in September has shown a good annual gain for each of the past five years.

 

It also makes sense to add to your position, or start building one. Basically, a currency swap to a strengthening currency.

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It will be interesting to see how Gold reacts today and tomorrow as Greece returns to the capital markets today. It plans to auction treasury bills for the first time since the bailout in May.

 

 

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My work is calling for a major peak in gold/HUI in late March 2011 and I'll try and pin that to a day or two nearer the time - I personally think Jim Sinclair's date for the 2nd week in January is going to be too early.

 

I have 6 ISAs stuffed with gold stocks (5 in profit) and I hope you're right but I genuinely doubt that TA can forecast the future with such certainty - especially as the HUI continually disappoints.

 

I'm surprised at how little gold stock talk there is on this board - must still be very early days!

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It will be interesting to see how Gold reacts today and tomorrow as Greece returns to the capital markets today. It plans to auction treasury bills for the first time since the bailout in May.

 

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Greek government on Tuesday tested the debt markets for the first time since tapping a European Union-International Monetary Fund bailout plan, selling 1.625 billion euros ($2 billion) of 26-week bills, news reports said. The auction produced a uniform yield of 4.65%, up from 4.55% in an April auction. Reports said the amount of bids received exceeded supply 3.64 times, down from 7.67 in the previous sale.

 

...a surprisinly good take up of their treasuries. Bull fodder.

 

Confidence in printy printy. POG likes this.

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LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Greek government on Tuesday tested the debt markets for the first time since tapping a European Union-International Monetary Fund bailout plan, selling 1.625 billion euros ($2 billion) of 26-week bills, news reports said. The auction produced a uniform yield of 4.65%, up from 4.55% in an April auction. Reports said the amount of bids received exceeded supply 3.64 times, down from 7.67 in the previous sale.

 

...a surprisinly good take up of their treasuries. Bull fodder.

 

Confidence in printy printy. POG likes this.

Up 20 dollars today

 

1216

 

I saw something on the business news about the national banks in Greece being rounded up to buy Greek bonds.

 

The whole charade is looking ridiculous. They should just get on with it, default, and leave the Euro zone.

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Up 20 dollars today

 

 

gold is going to be in a secular "day traders market" now. It is like :

1. rallied from 15 to 20 bucks?

2. short it.

3. dropped 20 to 30 bucks?

4. cover

5. go to step 1 until 3 to 4 years pass

 

no money for investors but a lot of points for scalpers

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Maybe you got your EW count wrong again.

 

gold is going to be in a secular "day traders market" now. It is like :

1. rallied from 15 to 20 bucks?

2. short it.

3. dropped 20 to 30 bucks?

4. cover

5. go to step 1 until 3 to 4 years pass

 

no money for investors but a lot of points for scalpers

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gold is going to be in a secular "day traders market" now. It is like :

1. rallied from 15 to 20 bucks?

2. short it.

3. dropped 20 to 30 bucks?

4. cover

5. go to step 1 until 3 to 4 years pass

 

no money for investors but a lot of points for scalpers

You're pulling my leg right? :lol:

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gold is going to be in a secular "day traders market" now. It is like :

1. rallied from 15 to 20 bucks?

2. short it.

3. dropped 20 to 30 bucks?

4. cover

5. go to step 1 until 3 to 4 years pass

 

no money for investors but a lot of points for scalpers

 

Ker, why are you only negative about gold? You think "gold bugs" are like religious fanatics and respond like a fanatical athiest!

 

You said many times that gold is going back to $500 and that never happened and now you say that its going no where for 3-4 years ie. staying around $1200. I think that anyone new to this site ought to know your record before they take any notiice of what you think. Im just a fool and yet I have been correct about gold. You tend to loose all credability in other things you say, like realist bear over on HPC.

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I think it's only fair to post this. Ker's thoughts from 14th October 2009. $300 gold.... :blink: As if...

 

gold-bigswing.png

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=133990

 

Ker, why are you only negative about gold? You think "gold bugs" are like religious fanatics and respond like a fanatical athiest!

 

You said many times that gold is going back to $500 and that never happened and now you say that its going no where for 3-4 years ie. staying around $1200. I think that anyone new to this site ought to know your record before they take any notiice of what you think. Im just a fool and yet I have been correct about gold. You tend to loose all credability in other things you say, like realist bear over on HPC.

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I think it's only fair to post this. Ker's thoughts from 14th October 2009. $300 gold.... :blink: As if...

 

To be fair to him, I think the shape and pattern is good, but the timing is out. The Head and shoulders pattern you could arguably contend topped out at around $1250.

 

This looks sensible to me though:

54019927.png

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Sorry I disagree, gold is money. Pundits have been calling the top in gold for 8 years, this isn't it and even when it does top it won't return to $300/t oz. The only thing right about Ker's chart is he managed to get the years in the right order.

 

To be fair to him, I think the shape and pattern is good, but the timing is out. The Head and shoulders pattern you could arguably contend topped out at around $1250.

 

This looks sensible to me though:

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I have 6 ISAs stuffed with gold stocks (5 in profit) and I hope you're right but I genuinely doubt that TA can forecast the future with such certainty - especially as the HUI continually disappoints.

 

I'm surprised at how little gold stock talk there is on this board - must still be very early days!

 

Which gold stocks are you in? My ISA is splt between CEY (40%) and MML (60%). Should really diversify at some stage but these are excpetional companies imo - MML are producing gold at $180 an oz and expanding production strongly. There is a good thread on advfn

 

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Anyone thinking about the long-term future of gold can look at:

 

Historical currency collapse.

 

The build-up of huge private and public debt in the West.

 

The activities of central banks (printing money and buying gold)

 

The lack of wealth generating capacity (not cutting hair or selling each other houses)

 

China - the amount of Western debt they hold and their massive wealth-generating economy.

 

Or they may choose to look at Ker's graph...

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Gold in GBP is now lowest its been since mid May at £790.

 

Not low enough though! Im holding out for lower seasonal prices before I buy some, and silver. Anyone (except Ker) like to hazard a guess how much lower? Im guessing £24,000 and will start buying then.

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