GOLD

[aardvark]

Baird and Chard have both confirmed to me that copper spotting is not unheard of on Maples. There can be trace amounts of copper etc.

 

Certain types of acid/chemical will also leave a mark.

 

very curious, thanks for the info.

[Catflap]

Gold Monthly trend lines:

 

 

 

[shawth]

its not unusual on 22k coins like sovs or krugs (which contain copper) but it should be impossible on .999 gold!

 

maybe your maple has touched another coin and some copper has rubbed off onto it?? acid would not have any effect on the gold (unless it also contained some other metal).

 

I have a large number of air-tite coin capsules with a 22mm fitting inner ring that will keep your sovereigns safe from spot rust. I do not trade in this but am just trying to sell them on at cost as I bought a large number a year ago. They are all brand new and have never been used. I can let anyone have 10 for £5 including rings and postage within the uk. Please email thomas.e.shaw@hotmail.co.uk if you would like me to send these to you. I will need a bacs transfer in advance of shipment.

 

 

[romans holiday]

 

Just to put things in perspective.

[ecoface]

I have a large number of air-tite coin capsules with a 22mm fitting inner ring that will keep your sovereigns safe from spot rust. I do not trade in this but am just trying to sell them on at cost as I bought a large number a year ago. They are all brand new and have never been used. I can let anyone have 10 for £5 including rings and postage within the uk. Please email thomas.e.shaw@hotmail.co.uk if you would like me to send these to you. I will need a bacs transfer in advance of shipment.

 

I wouldn't go fishing around here for peoples home addresses in case you might want to know where coins are located outside of banks. I heard a nasty story about 2 years ago where an old couple gave their address to someone on a forum about coins, only to be held up at gunpoint a few months later. Not saying you're of that frame of mind, but best to be on the safe side eh.

 

 

[drbubb]

Just to put things in perspective.

(same chart, without colors)

My eyes see cycles

 

We've already seen, or will soon see, the mid-cycle (blue) low

 

[romans holiday]

My eyes see cycles

 

We've already seen, or will soon see, the mid-cycle (blue) low

Yes, looks to me, it may consolidate and then bounce of the median line [1100] over the course of this year, and next year go onto new highs.

[LauraB]

Richard Daughty is in fine form. Enjoy.

 

'The Sweet Smell of Investing in Silver and Gold'

 

Those of us who are now called “gold bugs” will soon be referred to as “genius rich persons who must be obeyed” because we bought gold, silver and oil while the rest of the world got laughably infatuated with paper assets, which top scholars will tell you shows why the word “infatuated” sounds sort of like “flatulence” in a secret-code kind of way, which (when one has successfully calibrated one’s Mogambo Secret Decode Ring (MSDR)) can be unscrambled to reveal the message, “You will be so rich that when you fart, you can ask ‘What is that smell?’ and all around you people who have been losing everything by not buying gold, silver and oil will answer in unison ‘It is truly the smell of sweet, sweet roses, second in delight only to the heavenly odor of your feet, oh, glorious genius rich person!’ because they know what will happen to them if they don’t.”

 

I apologize for the vaguely threatening nature of the end of the foregoing, but such arrogance is the natural by-product of the arrogance one gets when one is rich, rich, rich because one has been buying gold, silver and oil with frantic abandon as one’s world was awash in new money created – whole mountain ranges of new money created, indeed, whole freaking oceans of money were created! – by the Federal Reserve, especially nowadays so that the idiotic, desperate, corrupt, lying Congress and an equally corrupt White House can horrifically conspire to deficit-spend us into some deep, dark, dank whirlpool of destruction and despair where prices rise so high as a result of all of this new money that newspapers report food riots in the streets, often while running lighthearted stories of the magnificent and opulent lifestyles of those who bought gold, silver and oil, often referred to as the Really, Really Rich (RRR), and how we live it up with cute Hollywood starlets and drive snazzy new cars!

 

And it may happen sooner than you think, and hopefully as soon as I had dared hope, as an article titled “Mysterious BIS gold swaps are likely a bullion bank bailout” by Adrian Douglas of MarketForceAnalysis.com refers to the odd goings-on at the Bank for International Settlement as concerns a mysterious 380 tonnes of gold being involved in a mysterious gold swap with some commercial banks.

 

I smell corruption, a foul odor not dispelled by Mr. Douglas noting, “While a central bank theoretically and practically could hold 380 tonnes of unencumbered gold, there is no way that a commercial bank is sitting on 380 tonnes of unencumbered gold.” Hmmm!

 

His next sentence is pure horror film, if delivered in a darkly sinister voice, perhaps with some kind of foreign accent dripping intrigue. So lower the lights and set the spooky mood before saying, “So the gold in the BIS swaps came from” (pause for dramatic effect) “somewhere else.” Yikes!

 

He asks, “Why would this be done?” Well, the answer is not, “To raise money! The cash is needed because I have had it Up To Here (UTH) with the wife and kids complaining about a more-than-generous 1,000 calorie-per-day diet, which is all I can afford after using all my money to buy more gold, which is selling for peanuts when compared to the staggering amounts of money being created by central banks around the world!”

 

And why would I do such a thing? Because, as the Magnificent Mogambo (MM) himself said, “Gold at these prices is at the #2 spot of the Mogambo List Of Fabulous Investments (MLOFI), whereas the coveted #1 spot on the MLOFI is silver, which you will notice that I am not selling because of the compelling relative risk/reward ratio, no matter how much the ungrateful family whines and complains.”

 

Mr. Douglas is too smart to be drawn into the swamp of my personal life, especially where it is always a desperate “me against them” situation. Without even mentioning what a shame it is that I would sell gold just to buy food for people who happen to look good with that thin and pallid, sunken-eyes and protruding-bone, “Goth” look, he says that it is not about the money anyway!

 

He says, “This is not about currency liquidity, as the $14 billion reported raised is not liquidity; it is pocket change.” Hmmm!

 

Then he goes on, “On the other hand, 380 tonnes of gold is liquidity in the gold market, where mines produce only about 2,200 tonnes per year,” which I thought he would follow up with how output is actually falling, and how no new big gold discoveries are being made, or how few new mines are being opened, or how people are finally listening to the Wise Mogambo Advice (WMA) to buy gold, silver and oil, and maybe how they are slapping themselves on the forehead (Slap! “Ouch!”) and saying to themselves, “Who knew that That Mogambo Idiot (TMI)) was not as stupid as he sounded? He always said, ‘Buy gold, silver and oil when your idiotic, satanic central bank is creating excess amounts of money which will, because it must, show up as inflation in consumer prices, and buy them especially when the moronic government is deficit-spending the nation into asinine bankruptcy, where the national debt is over $13 trillion dollars and climbing at almost $2 trillion a year while GDP is barely $14 trillion! It’s insane, insane, insane!’ And I remember also that he used to say that buying gold, silver and oil to protect myself from this preposterous lunacy was so easy that I would feel the urge to exclaim, ‘Whee! This investing stuff is easy!’”

 

But Mr. Douglas did not say any of that, and says instead that the deal is that “In this way the central bank or banks would get cash and the BIS would get the unallocated gold as collateral and as if by magic the bullion bank or banks would get 380 tonnes of gold to bail them out for a few more weeks as massive physical demand for metal eats their lunch.”

 

In short, the giant gold-manipulation scheme that the Gold Anti-Trust Action committee spent years exposing, and getting attacked by critics who, it turns out, did not know what they were talking about, is running up against the only thing that could ruin their game; buyers are demanding physical gold instead of pieces of paper that say that they represent ownership of gold!

 

And since the manipulation situation is even more outrageous for silver, you can see why I say, “Whee! Investing in gold, silver and oil is easy!”

[Carlton]

Roubini Global Economics on gold:

 

Synopsis: Gold may go higher, but it has gone up a lot already, so it may go down.

 

Not even worth clicking on.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38342915

[drbubb]

Yes, looks to me, it may consolidate and then bounce of the median line [1100] over the course of this year, and next year go onto new highs.

I'm still betting on Gold being lower than here next month

[Carlton]

Notes from Toby Connor:

 

^ "8 year cycle"

 

^My guess is that the Fed's extreme monetary policy is acting to stretch gold’s intermediate cycle slightly. As you can see from the chart, gold is now about to enter the 24th week of the current intermediate cycle. This of course means it's becoming extremely dangerous to sell gold. On the contrary, this is the time where savvy investors want to be looking to add to positions. Remember, this is a secular bull market after all, and you only get this kind of opportunity about every 5 to 6 months.

 

...So the bottom line is we are on the verge of getting one of the best buying opportunities we ever get in a bull market sometime in the next week or two. The question you have to ask yourself is, will you take it or will you let the "technicals" talk you into missing another fleeting chance to accumulate at bargain prices in the only secular bull market left? Let's face it, at intermediate cycle bottoms the technicals are not going to look like a bottom. Instead, they are going to look like the bull is broken.

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1279605900.php

 

 

[duckwomanloulou]

Here's what's vexing me currently. We sold out all bar 5% of our gold & silver (that's in sov's & brits) pre Emergency budget because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains. We are now predominantly in cash - UK sterling (in 2 UK ethical banks so hopefully safer than the average bank). I'm watching the stock markets and the gold market and trying to figure out where we go from here and therefore how to invest again - the never ending inflation vs deflation debate

 

I keep reading about the imminent stock market crash and am beginning to form the view that if that is the way things play out that we will see a correction in Gold back sub $1000 Sept/Oct before the US fire up the presses for one last time following their Elections & we'll get one last leg up in Gold before we see Prechter's predictions start to look more realistic (edited to say: for a while maybe 12-18 months before it goes parabolic). I'm not looking to get flamed for this view I'm just sharing my limited opinion and looking for other views before I decide to hop back on the Gold & Silver train over the winter/spring once more.

 

Would love to know what you think particularly Dr B

 

Lou

[electroweak]

Here's what's vexing me currently. We sold out all bar 5% of our gold & silver (that's in sov's & brits) pre Emergency budget because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains. We are now predominantly in cash - UK sterling (in 2 UK ethical banks so hopefully safer than the average bank). I'm watching the stock markets and the gold market and trying to figure out where we go from here and therefore how to invest again - the never ending inflation vs deflation debate

 

I keep reading about the imminent stock market crash and am beginning to form the view that if that is the way things play out that we will see a correction in Gold back sub $1000 Sept/Oct before the US fire up the presses for one last time following their Elections & we'll get one last leg up in Gold before we see Prechter's predictions start to look more realistic (edited to say: for a while maybe 12-18 months before it goes parabolic). I'm not looking to get flamed for this view I'm just sharing my limited opinion and looking for other views before I decide to hop back on the Gold & Silver train over the winter/spring once more.

 

Would love to know what you think particularly Dr B

 

Lou

I think gold (in GBP) is reaching a bottom now. I think you are living in hope to see below $1000 gold ever again, too (if you are waiting in $US). Not saying it won't happen, but there are people (many people) who would pounce all over sub-1000 gold. Things can't get much better for the GBP; new government, reducing deficit (but not debt!), huge appetite for sovereign debt , about to enter into epic slide of HPs and the consumer will die (70% of GDP there.. ) etc. etc., so IMO it basically downhill for GBP from here vs gold. I am coming to the belief that TPTB know the UK economy is already in a deep slide, but they are waiting to do something until it gets so bad that they are seen to rescue things; that is the only way they can keep getting away with it.. Problem .. Reaction... Solution.

 

[romans holiday]

Well, Bernanke comes out and says the economy is "unusually uncertain". Crikey, that's why we've all been buying and sitting on gold..... isn't he supposed to be trying to jawbone gold down?

 

Going back through 1200........

[jinbal]

 

Former dictator Antonio de Oliveira Salazar might have been remembered as Portugal’s best investor had central bank rules allowed the country to benefit from his shrewdest trade: Europe’s biggest gold pile.

 

Portugal owns more of the precious metal relative to the size of its economy than any euro country, accumulated mostly during Salazar’s 36 years in power using savings and money from exports including tungsten and canned fish. Gold’s 26 percent advance in the past year leaves Portugal holding an increasingly valuable asset, though one the indebted government can’t touch because the law prevents proceeds from going to state coffers.

 

 

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20...qUVg&pos=11

 

[Wanderer]

Must agree that UK is in that 'sweet spot' between announcing reductions in spending (and so getting the credit for them from optimistic markets) and actually carrying them out (with all the associated pain and loss of political capital).

 

In reality, the axe hasn't even begun to swing yet. The scale of what is required to carry out 25% cuts is enormous. Every project that gets mentioned in the papers comes with complaints from each lobby: be it aircraft carriers, troop numbers, schools buildings, hospitals, public sector pensions, arts budgets, embassy closures etc. The only thing I've not heard complaints about is housing benefit cuts.

 

Once the axe begins to fall (coincidentally around the time that Labour will get a new leader) then we'll see genuine testing of the political resolve of the new Government. Cracks in that resolve will hurt the pound no doubt.

 

As an aside cuts to housing benefit may have an enormous impact on the housing market. As I understand it, under the current system you, my friend Mr A may be unemployed and on housing benefit and you can agree to rent a house from me, Mr B, for £X00. Now £X00 may be £Y00 more than the going rent but the housing benefit people don't query it too much. DHSS pays your rent to me and I might even feel inclined to give you half of £Y00 for being part of the scam. Isn't that more or less the £2000 a week asylum seeker story?

 

I had conversations about that with my team this week. None of my team earn over £25,000. Seeing someone getting paid £2000 a week housing benefit means it is more difficult to motivate them to work for that amount per month (before tax)....

[nicejim]

...Isn't that more or less the £2000 a week asylum seeker story?

 

I had conversations about that with my team this week. None of my team earn over £25,000. Seeing someone getting paid £2000 a week housing benefit means it is more difficult to motivate them to work for that amount per month (before tax)....

Pretty much

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0tSiiV4k9

The £2,000 per week is paid directly to Mr Nur and his family, who then pay their landlord. Property sources say the house was being advertised locally at a cost of £1,050 per week.

 

The house is owned by Brophy Group Business Ltd, a British Virgin Islands company whose registered address is a post office box in Liechtenstein.

 

 

Yes, it's not much of a motivator.

[njpurser]

Here's what's vexing me currently. We sold out all bar 5% of our gold & silver (that's in sov's & brits) pre Emergency budget because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains. We are now predominantly in cash - UK sterling (in 2 UK ethical banks so hopefully safer than the average bank). I'm watching the stock markets and the gold market and trying to figure out where we go from here and therefore how to invest again - the never ending inflation vs deflation debate

 

I keep reading about the imminent stock market crash and am beginning to form the view that if that is the way things play out that we will see a correction in Gold back sub $1000 Sept/Oct before the US fire up the presses for one last time following their Elections & we'll get one last leg up in Gold before we see Prechter's predictions start to look more realistic (edited to say: for a while maybe 12-18 months before it goes parabolic). I'm not looking to get flamed for this view I'm just sharing my limited opinion and looking for other views before I decide to hop back on the Gold & Silver train over the winter/spring once more.

 

Would love to know what you think particularly Dr B

 

Lou

My thoughts too bro'.

 

Short term risks for gold appear to be on the downside, so I sold out.

 

Nick

[G0ldfinger]

Short term risks for gold appear to be on the downside, so I sold out.

I'd rather gamble with Google or Apple on that one.

 

Selling your gold now is like standing in front of your burning house and ripping apart your fire insurance policy.

[Errol]

My thoughts too bro'.

 

Short term risks for gold appear to be on the downside, so I sold out.

 

Nick

 

You're talking about physical metal or some kind of electronic/paper gold?

 

I would maintain that one should always keep a physical position. Measure wealth in ounces not fiat units.

[G0ldfinger]

I can not say too much because I agreed to do this work exclusively for a certain financial group. However, I can tell you that we have very likely one of the most sophisticated stochastic gold price models that there is (not that many people would work on this anyway... ). From all I can see, the downside risk to gold over the next 5-7 years is very limited. I don't say it is non-existent, but it is not worth gambling on it given the upside potential.

 

The above applies even BEFORE the SHTF insurance aspect of gold comes in. Sorry for not being able to post more on this. But just have a look at the DJIA:Gold-cycle and then ask yourself how likely it is for the DJIA to fall below, say, 5,000. This alone will tell you a lot (except if your Bob Prechter, of course ).

[warpig]

Some people are good at making bad decisions.

 

(except if your Bob Prechter, of course ).

[nicejim]

We sold...because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains...

If it weren't for the tax system you'd not have sold. So buy.

[romans holiday]

Until this upward trend is broken, why would you even begin to think about selling your core position in gold?

 

Gold has carried on upwards consistently and solidly. The odds are it will continue to do so. The commentators may disagree on the explanations of why this is so, and will continue to do so. One thing is for sure, the interminable swings between inflation and deflation discourse, and the crude equation of inflation/ good for gold, and deflation/ bad for gold, are based on outdated simplifications and antiquated thinking.

 

Rather than basing your gold investment decisions on this noise, you should be comtemplating the long term chart.

 

 

[warpig]

A few points to consider:

 

1) You have to remember QE was merely suspended, the framework to implement it, is still in place and they will be able to react far quicker next time.

2) If you honestly believe gold is going to at least double from here (I do), why are you worried about a pull-back when you run the risk of missing the parabolic leg up?

3) Betting on Pretcher is betting the government won't intervene. Even Pretcher admits he might have got it wrong on gold...

4) I think your time frame is on the generous side, I'm expecting the fireworks to begin late August.

 

Good luck!

 

 

Here's what's vexing me currently. We sold out all bar 5% of our gold & silver (that's in sov's & brits) pre Emergency budget because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains. We are now predominantly in cash - UK sterling (in 2 UK ethical banks so hopefully safer than the average bank). I'm watching the stock markets and the gold market and trying to figure out where we go from here and therefore how to invest again - the never ending inflation vs deflation debate

 

I keep reading about the imminent stock market crash and am beginning to form the view that if that is the way things play out that we will see a correction in Gold back sub $1000 Sept/Oct before the US fire up the presses for one last time following their Elections & we'll get one last leg up in Gold before we see Prechter's predictions start to look more realistic (edited to say: for a while maybe 12-18 months before it goes parabolic). I'm not looking to get flamed for this view I'm just sharing my limited opinion and looking for other views before I decide to hop back on the Gold & Silver train over the winter/spring once more.

 

Would love to know what you think particularly Dr B

 

Lou