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Anyone got an idea why gold bombed down 1.4% today in GBP terms?

 

I have a support at 770, which is it's current level and it doesn't look good if it goes through.

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Here's what's vexing me currently. We sold out all bar 5% of our gold & silver (that's in sov's & brits) pre Emergency budget because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains. We are now predominantly in cash - UK sterling (in 2 UK ethical banks so hopefully safer than the average bank). I'm watching the stock markets and the gold market and trying to figure out where we go from here and therefore how to invest again - the never ending inflation vs deflation debate

 

I keep reading about the imminent stock market crash and am beginning to form the view that if that is the way things play out that we will see a correction in Gold back sub $1000 Sept/Oct before the US fire up the presses for one last time following their Elections & we'll get one last leg up in Gold before we see Prechter's predictions start to look more realistic (edited to say: for a while maybe 12-18 months before it goes parabolic). I'm not looking to get flamed for this view I'm just sharing my limited opinion and looking for other views before I decide to hop back on the Gold & Silver train over the winter/spring once more.

 

Would love to know what you think particularly Dr B

 

Lou :)

 

Just to add my thoughts.......(not wanting to get into trading vs investing, or claim to know more than others)

 

I'd advocate being conservative and 'mulling things over' before either a purchase, sale or swap of PMs. Be aware of the temptation, when reading a daily comments forum, to overreact to small news and noise , and thus overtrade or dive in too early. Time in gold-land is measured in months not hours.

 

Gold moves IMHO in a seasonal cycle and in lengthy multi-year cycles, so I try not to rush any decision or act on the spur of the moment news - I always mull things over.......

 

My strategy, which I have said before, is to buy big once a year around end august time, averaging in over a month or so. I choose gold, silver or platinum or a bit of all depending on the G-to-S ratio, and the G-to-P and S-to-P ratios, which at the moment are a bit uninteresting and neutral (see my post a couple of pages before with the octopus for my chart !) I ultimately want only to own gold, but will buy the others if undervalued to increase my potenitial gold ozs. I also diversify into several currencies as I build my fiat pot over the year.

 

Last thing of all, I hate buying into strength, as it usually means Im buying at an interim top, and end up underwater until the bull market eventually rescues me

 

 

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Just to add my thoughts.......(not wanting to get into trading vs investing, or claim to know more than others)

 

I'd advocate being conservative and 'mulling things over' before either a purchase, sale or swap of PMs. Be aware of the temptation, when reading a daily comments forum, to overreact to small news and noise , and thus overtrade or dive in too early. Time in gold-land is measured in months not hours.

 

Gold moves IMHO in a seasonal cycle and in lengthy multi-year cycles, so I try not to rush any decision or act on the spur of the moment news - I always mull things over.......

 

My strategy, which I have said before, is to buy big once a year around end august time, averaging in over a month or so. I choose gold, silver or platinum or a bit of all depending on the G-to-S ratio, and the G-to-P and S-to-P ratios, which at the moment are a bit uninteresting and neutral (see my post a couple of pages before with the octopus for my chart !) I ultimately want only to own gold, but will buy the others if undervalued to increase my potenitial gold ozs. I also diversify into several currencies as I build my fiat pot over the year.

 

Last thing of all, I hate buying into strength, as it usually means Im buying at an interim top, and end up underwater until the bull market eventually rescues me

 

Thanks DCA and all others for replying.

 

Money has been moved across to GM in readiness for a buy but waiting till into Aug and probably a month from now before hitting the 'buy' button.

 

Still interested to hear other views if people would still like to share.

 

Lou

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U.K.’s OFT Completes Review of Postal Gold Companies

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-2...-companies.html

 

The authority had requested gold buying companies to provide details on business practices and explain claims made in advertising. OFT had said it wanted to consider whether the companies were complying with consumer protection legislation, such as whether customers’ rights to reject an offer for their gold and receive the metal back were being honored in all cases

 

Who cares about the numpties selling their gold far below spot price, just tell us the real interesting thing please - where is it all ending up

(China/russia/india/ all of the above)

 

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Anyone got an idea why gold bombed down 1.4% today in GBP terms?

 

I have a support at 770, which is it's current level and it doesn't look good if it goes through.

 

Yes its called "deflationary" and some cannot see the value..............

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Yes its called "deflationary" and some cannot see the value..............

no! - it only went down in GBP because the UK economy is 'recovering': UK consumer spending (and yesterday GDP) and therefore GBP has gone up. I don't see it getting any better for GBP than it is now. We'll see, but I think gold is bottoming in GBP here.

 

 

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no! - it only went down in GBP because the UK economy is 'recovering': UK consumer spending (and yesterday GDP) and therefore GBP has gone up. I don't see it getting any better for GBP than it is now. We'll see, but I think gold is bottoming in GBP here.

the UK is not the world, and the UK will never recover! Let me sell you bananas hehehhehe

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+1

 

no! - it only went down in GBP because the UK economy is 'recovering': UK consumer spending (and yesterday GDP) and therefore GBP has gone up. I don't see it getting any better for GBP than it is now. We'll see, but I think gold is bottoming in GBP here.

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the UK is not the world, and the UK will never recover! Let me sell you bananas hehehhehe

I suspect BlackPepper has been out in the sun and drinking TBH, but I agree that there won't be a real 'recovery' anytime soon.

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the UK is not the world, and the UK will never recover! Let me sell you bananas hehehhehe

 

All noise. No information.

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I think I can now see why Jim Sinclair is so confident of his date of the 14th Jan 2011.

 

The president has recently signed the "Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act" on 15th July 2010. The CFTC now have 180 days to decide on the levels of position limits and implement them. 180 days from 14th Jan 2010 is 11th Jan 2011 which lines up quite nicely with Jim's date. If position limits are enforced we will see a lot of shorts being covered, especially in silver by JPM & gold by HSBC.

 

Here is Bart Chilton talking about the new powers the CFTC now has for clamping down on manipulation;

 

http://www.cftc.gov/files/oirm/video/cftc_023455.wmv

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GOLD

If the trendline is broken (likely!) and it holds the day...

zzzzbb.gif

...we could see a big drop this week.

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Must read for anyone trying to understand what is happening with gold and backwardation.

 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

And just as with all bogus signals that the government, the Fed and Goldman Sachs create, the response is the same. The marketplace withdraws from games with bogus signals. Volume dries up, and Goldman Sachs ends up playing against itself to create the show. Just like price controls create shortages... SAME EXACT CONCEPT.

 

So Goldman Sachs (the $IMFS) has rigged the GOFO as a big F-YOU to Antal Fekete.. but it shot itself in the foot in the process.

 

Just like unemployment isn't really 9%, I think it is possible that gold is actually in permanent backwardation at this very moment and may have been for a while now. You can't change the temperature by simply rigging the thermometer. But you can't know the exact temperature either.

 

The dollar NEEDS voluntary bids from private physical gold to survive. My guess is that pool of REAL bids of size is bone dry and cracking. And "dollar liquidity" is just a cheap façade at this point. This is why the dollar NEEDS a rising gold price. As the price (for selling, not borrowing gold) rises, weak little bits of gold here and there will bid for dollars.

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I have a support at 770, which is it's current level and it doesn't look good if it goes through.

 

Gold GBP not looking good at £760.

 

Next move down to 200 dma at 737. If it fails to hold there, then there is not much to stop it falling way back to 625 - we need panic in the equity markets in the next few weeks to stop gold bombing out.

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Gold GBP not looking good at £760.

 

Next move down to 200 dma at 737. If it fails to hold there, then there is not much to stop it falling way back to 625 - we need panic in the equity markets in the next few weeks to stop gold bombing out.

The gold price is a lot more volatile in pounds. This is more about the pound than gold. Gold priced in Yen and US dollar shows these currencies to be more stable... though still depreciating against gold.

 

 

vol-1.gif

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Sometimes I think "Stuff it, I'll sell my gold and take profits". Then I read articles like this...

I think the LBMA have only moved the data elsewhere on their page. I could still find everything when I looked the last time. Simply a new design. AA might have overlooked that.

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The gold price is a lot more volatile in pounds. This is more about the pound than gold. Gold priced in Yen and US dollar shows these currencies to be more stable... though still depreciating against gold.

 

I kind of agree but look at this...

 

Looks fairly consistent to me.

 

GBPUSDGoldComparison

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Touche! ;)

 

But what happens in the market action of one day doesn't really translate into longer term trends.

 

No, but on the same graph, click on 30 days, then 60 etc. etc. Okay, so the Y axis is different, but it's not that different.

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No, but on the same graph, click on 30 days, then 60 etc. etc. Okay, so the Y axis is different, but it's not that different.

Oh right... on the 5 year... from 07....08 to the present looks pretty disparate to me. Gold goes from $1000 to 1200 [20%] while from 500 pounds to 800 [60%]. Wouldn't you agree that shows a lot more "instability in the pound? And that given it went up so much against the pound, a decent correction similiar to last time wouldn't be unusual.

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Oh right... on the 5 year... from 07....08 to the present looks pretty disparate to me. Gold goes from $1000 to 1200 [20%] while from 500 pounds to 800 [60%]. Wouldn't you agree that shows a lot more "instability in the pound? And that given it went up so much against the pound, a decent correction similiar to last time wouldn't be unusual.

 

Yes, I expect the fall to be amplified in GBP terms.

 

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