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I've just sold most of my PMs. I wish I'd done it weeks ago when gold was £850 and my gut told me the sterling price was going to tumble.

 

In my defence I'll say that some of these 'PMs' were gold and silver ETFs and the rest were with BV, which I've been wary of ever since I heard of the Rothschild investment.

 

I'm now hoping that the price will tumble for a few more weeks, when the plan is that I'll buy some sovereigns and stop worrying about capital gains tax.

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I have to say I find this correction against all common sense, only a few weeks ago, Europe was going to hell and now everything is perfect again... Are people that stupid? Where is the money going, back in to equities? Where is the double dip and QE2?

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Isnt the 28th futures expiry day ??

 

Trading terminates on the third last business day of the delivery month.

 

Someone is pushing the price down, maybe they are concerned about physical delivery :lol:

 

I have marked in my calender the usual physical shortages at the bullion dealers in the coming weeks as the price drops :lol:

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I think the LBMA have only moved the data elsewhere on their page. I could still find everything when I looked the last time. Simply a new design. AA might have overlooked that.

Further to this, links to all data:

 

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=53&a...&type=daily

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=54&a...&type=daily

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?pag...atistical_table

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=55&a...e=gold_forwards

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_id=56&a...silver_forwards

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I have to say I find this correction against all common sense, only a few weeks ago, Europe was going to hell and now everything is perfect again... Are people that stupid? Where is the money going, back in to equities? Where is the double dip and QE2?

 

Speaking as the man on the Clapham omnibus, I'd say that with their austerity measures, European governments at least appear to be addressing the debt problem now, which is more than could be said a few months ago.

 

Bill Bonner in The Daily Reckoning is warning that gold could go to $850 before bouncing back in a time of inflation (though he advises against selling it).

 

Then there's Mish, who thinks gold will be the king of currencies in a time of deflation.

 

I'm interested in the views of both. I take Mish more seriously but Bonner has got me somewhat spooked.

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Anyone got an idea why gold bombed down 1.4% today in GBP terms?

 

I have a support at 770, which is it's current level and it doesn't look good if it goes through.

The same happens every month on options expiry day. Here's a graphic which shows the options expiry dates for the next few years, watch the dates and you will soon see the pattern.

 

The cartel actually appear to be getting more and more blatant every month.

 

40202459.png

 

 

 

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...

Bill Bonner in The Daily Reckoning is warning that gold could go to $850 before bouncing back in a time of inflation (though he advises against selling it).

...

I don't think that Bonner has revoked his "trade of the decade" yet.

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The same happens every month on options expiry day. Here's a graphic which shows the options expiry dates for the next few years, watch the dates and you will soon see the pattern.

 

The cartel actually appear to be getting more and more blatant every month.

 

40202459.png

 

Thanks Pix, I shall watch out for it.

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I don't think that Bonner has revoked his "trade of the decade" yet.

That was last decade. This decade's trade is sell Treasuries, buy Japanese stocks.

 

 

So what’s next? What’s the trade of the coming decade? Well, your editor has decided not to double-down on the identical trade. Gold will remain in our core holdings, but not in our Trade of the Decade for the next 10 years. Why? Because we think the US economy is going the way of Japan.

http://dailyreckoning.com/our-new-trade-of-the-decade/

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That was last decade. This decade's trade is sell Treasuries, buy Japanese stocks.

OK, I herewith delete Bonner from my To Read list.

 

I guess it started with his malinvestment in Argentina...

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Hi guys, I've been so busy recently, very little time to even check in here :(

 

I have just done a quick update to my charts though, you may find it interesting.

 

My prediction in a line:

 

GoldUS$ maybe down to 1,100, then off to ... wait for it.... yes 1650 peak, before dropping back and consolidating.

 

Gold G5 Index Chart with extra information

http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3201

 

 

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40202459.png

 

Nice to see my own work being quoted back on the forum ! I've looked into price manipulations around these dates and found only a weak trend - it seems to be a pattern of only the last year or so. I will show thedata on the forum once i get it into a more presentable form.

 

 

 

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The seasonal dip is now upon us, for sure!

I'm looking to average in from my reserves of USD, GBP and CHF squirreled away during 2010. It looks like GBP is going to be the first to bottom IMHO.

 

1280306318060828800.jpg

 

Things I am looking for before 'averaging in' on GBP :

 

a prolonged test of 50 DMA

RSI under 50

Lower half of Bollinger bands

Mid-range slow STO with upwards trajectory

Histogram zero in MACD with upside ‘black-over-red future’ move likely

 

 

 

Comments?

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I agree, the market will continue lower up until the end of August expiry dates. I would be looking at the bank holiday Monday in London, as a low point due to the thinner than normal markets. Physical supply will also be thinner on the ground during this period.

Where GBP is going I am not so sure, certainly has had some strength in recent times, I dont believe this will be sustainable tho during october as the public sector cuts start to become clearer.

 

I have a buyin point marked at £700 and below, but I really dont think physical will get that low especially when you factor in dealer spreads, these are sure to increase again as the market bottoms.

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Yes you're right, the pound has regained the strength it started to lose late April, which explains the exaggerated decline in the price of gold when measured in GBP, but this stinks of the banks moving the market at key points of weakness if you ask me.

 

One of our customers services commercial aircraft, I stood in this huge building last week that originally housed 1,600 workers and when it was in full operation 4 x 737's and 1 x 747 would fill the hanger surrounded by numerous 737 engines and other parts being serviced, this place is huge and is now operated by just 60 people as the operation winds down. Times are tough, jobs are being lost as the work migrates East. Any austerity measures at this point are little more than polishing a turd, it doesn't scratch the surface IMO. I'm of the strongest opinion the Tories will also turn to QE as they come to realise there is little else to try...

 

Speaking as the man on the Clapham omnibus, I'd say that with their austerity measures, European governments at least appear to be addressing the debt problem now, which is more than could be said a few months ago.

 

Bill Bonner in The Daily Reckoning is warning that gold could go to $850 before bouncing back in a time of inflation (though he advises against selling it).

 

Then there's Mish, who thinks gold will be the king of currencies in a time of deflation.

 

I'm interested in the views of both. I take Mish more seriously but Bonner has got me somewhat spooked.

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This is inline with my thinking at the moment.

 

Well, I think that window of opportunity is shrinking rapidly. There are seasonal movements to the gold market. These movements can be swamped by economic events, but manipulation may also mimic them, to maintain the illusion of normality.

 

What's your timeline for your $1,650 prediction? JS's was on or before 14/01/11, but looking at your chart it looks like it will be later than this.

 

Hi guys, I've been so busy recently, very little time to even check in here :(

 

I have just done a quick update to my charts though, you may find it interesting.

 

My prediction in a line:

 

GoldUS$ maybe down to 1,100, then off to ... wait for it.... yes 1650 peak, before dropping back and consolidating.

 

Gold G5 Index Chart with extra information

http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3201

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I'm interested in the views of both. I take Mish more seriously but Bonner has got me somewhat spooked.

 

Why would you be spooked at the prospect of a fabulous buying opportunity? Get the truck serviced!

 

 

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APOLOGIES if already posted see linky for chart

 

http://www.rickackerman.com/

 

Has Gold’s price action been getting you down lately? Take heart, since relief could come as early as today or tomorrow in the form of a Hidden Pivot support at exactly $1140.10. For the last two weeks, that’s been our downside target for the correction begun five weeks ago from around $1266, although it didn’t begin to emerge with clarity until the August Comex contract plunged from $1208 right after the July 4th holiday weekend. (You can get a week’s worth of free forecasts and access to the 24/7 chat room by clicking here.) At yesterday’s lows, the correction so far had knocked 8% off the price of gold relative to the all-time high recorded on June 21. Even though we’d been expecting this weakness, we told subscribers at the outset that we didn’t foresee anything more serious developing.

 

Although we avoid chiseling such predictions in stone, we’ve advised cautious bottom-fishing near $1140, using a tight stop-loss of $2 or less. Our confidence is high that there will be a tradable bounce from the target, although a decisive breach would be the equivalent of the groundhog seeing his shadow – i.e., six more weeks (or so) of winter. Please note that we’ve identified a secondary target at 1155.00 that may have been fulfilled by yesterday’s 1156.90 low. However, our gut feeling is that this Hidden Pivot support will fail, sending the August contract down to the more important one at 1140.10

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goldweekly.png

 

There appear to be many interpretations here, eg

 

one) being we're at a trend line and should expect a bounce or

 

two) being the current downdraft is less than that of the prior two therefore expect it to go lower

 

three) being the recent high only reached the mid-trendline therefore indicating bearish price action for gold

 

I'd be interested to hear other alternatives. There are many ways to read a chart (which is perhaps why no commentary was included).

 

There appears to be bearish implications for the trend but not immediately the price

 

What's yours?

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This is inline with my thinking at the moment.

 

What's your timeline for your $1,650 prediction? JS's was on or before 14/01/11, but looking at your chart it looks like it will be later than this.

 

Hi warpig :)

First, interesting post about the aircraft! It's always good to hear real on the ground experiences.

 

The seasonal peaks seem to occur sometime between Jan and May. I think timing is the most difficult to predict, except in hindsight :)

I wouldn't mind betting Jim's prediction will be a few months too early. But, if something else breaks, who knows.

 

I only do this out of interest, for fun. My real view varies between this (note I did it a few years ago):

 

GoldUS_080220_10000_prediction_log2.gif

 

and this from FOFOA:

 

Freegold_bellcurve.gif

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Investment in international schools will be in the $75-100 million range, according to Kaizen, a private equity fund investing in education. The schools offer curriculum accredited to the International Baccalaureate Organisation of Geneva and International General Certificate for Secondary Education of the University of Cambridge, England.

http://www.ukghdhair.com/

I have suspended this poster for 10 days.

Another irrelevamt posting will trigger a banning

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There appear to be many interpretations here, eg

one) being we're at a trend line and should expect a bounce or

two) being the current downdraft is less than that of the prior two therefore expect it to go lower

 

What's yours?

I repeat my oft-repeated forecast: Gold will be below $1100 in August.

Wait until then to buy=

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