GOLD

[warpig]

Good man. Peroni next...

 

OK, thanks - I've just opened a bottle of Badger......

[grumpy-old-man]

Anyone that trolls the forum and posts ranting garbage along with a load of irrelevant pictures or videos deserves what they get. We've been here before if you remember - not just once but three times involving GOM and fitkid trashing the forum and winding people up. Don't understand why you feel the need to back him up and accuse me of setting a bad tone - from my posts you'll probably see that I'm a reasonably mature and well balanced individual with a lot of interests and unique insights. I predicted the gold peak in June to the day/to within a day weeks before it happened and said that gold was likely to bottom in July not August - what is it exactly that you find so useful about fitkids posts that makes you so protective of him?

 

nice to see I made such an impact on you though catflap, as you clearly still remember me.

 

I haven't posted for absolutely ages? & did so purposely to show that I could & that I clearly wasn't a 'troll'

even though certain posters kept putting statements up about me etc........hopefully I have proven my worth in that regard & will continue to do so.

 

 

To be quite honest, I'm getting tired of all this - I did a long and detailed post to yourself a while back that you appreciated after you made some prickly comment. Now I think I won't bother anymore..... I just don't have time for this childish b***ocks anymore or for dealing with othe peoples (not directed at you btw) over-inflated egos. I stopped posting on the main board of HPC a few years ago to get away from these muppets.......

 

Have a good day.

 

other people's over-inflated egos you say.......

 

 

 

 

also, it's amazing to see how some posters have now changed their stance & gold seems to be 'in' now.....as we still haven't had that massive drop that a few predicted.

funny that......

 

great link discussing LBMA btw (sorry if it's already been posted):

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lbma-clos...nk-trading-data

[grumpy-old-man]

great link discussing LBMA btw (sorry if it's already been posted):

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lbma-clos...nk-trading-data

 

 

following on from that LBMA Zerohedge link:

 

" the opportunity to obtain real metal is coming to an end,..."

 

 

 

B.I.S. GOLD SWAP & L.B.M.A. DRAIN

 

◄$$$ L.B.M.A. IS DEAD, DRAINED, AND DEFUNCT. LIKE THE BIG BANKS, IT IS A ZOMBIE SHELL OF A MARKET ENTITY. A MAJOR RUN ON THE BULLION BANKS HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST. ITS PHONY STRUCTURE IS BEING REVEALED. SETUP STORIES ARE COMING TO HIDE ITS EMPTY INVENTORY. THE DATA DARK EVEN IN LATE JULY WAS PROBABLY DUE TO A SUCCESSFUL LEGAL RAID. $$$

 

It has come to my attention that coordinated raids of the London Metals Exchange have taken place, all very legal, but done in a manner that its officials do not realize the scope of the organization. Several buyers acted in organized coordinated fashion. The raids took place in July and continue. The buyers went into the market with a massive volume compared to what can be considered normal. The buyers were ringed around the globe, in direct communication. In at least two instances agents within the inner sanctum of the London gold market worked in collusion with the buyers, the agents volunteering valuable information where certain quantities existed. This data enabled optimal positioning for the trades, where demand was made where supply laid. The buyer then cleaned all the physical out in one sweep, with pressure given by attorneys when necessary. The sellers obviously had misjudged the buyers financial resources and inside knowledge. A degree of military precision was demonstrated, along with seemingly unlimited financial resources. Hints of hidden unconditional political backing was mentioned, for applied pressure, although in vague terms. No trace of their activity was evident, as would be expected with numerous high volume demands for delivery. No insurance register spikes were permitted, as the buyers flew under the normal radar screens when lifting the gold bullion without protection. The raid, or legal surgical removal, might have been the largest ever. They took advantage of deep insider knowledge, even deeper pockets, and precise execution team to pull off the event. In doing so, the LBMA members inventories were nearly drained. The London officials scrambled to replenish their raided gold supply. Members of the exchange are in the process of having cut off their entire raw precious metal supply at the source. On the following week, the LBMA shut down all trade data.

 

THE LONDON METALS EXCHANGE SUFFERED A MAJOR HEART ATTACK FROM A GLOBAL GOLD RAID, VERY LEGAL. LONDON SUFFERED MAJOR DEPLETION OF ITS GOLD INVENTORY DURING THE COORDINATED RAID. THEY SHUT DOWN ALL DATA REPORTING UNTIL THEY COULD REJIGGER AND DOCTOR THEIR PHONY INVENTORY DATA. The financial press reported data darkness, but omitted the story about global coordinated legal raids on gigantic gold supply at numerous supply sources. They undoubtedly did not know about the raid, or were ordered not to report it. That would have been damaging for the gold cartel."

 

 

can't be long now......

[Crashman begins]

Welcome back GOM

Was wondering where you were ..

 

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....f=2&t=10707

 

Hinde Capital attacks gold ETFs

By Chris Flood

 

Published: August 13 2010 22:35 | Last updated: August 13 2010 22:35

 

Hinde Capital, a London-based gold hedge fund, has mounted a ferocious attack on precious metals exchange traded funds and in particular the largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust run by State Street.

 

Hinde says precious metals ETFs “should not be owned by serious professional investors” and in a highly provocative paper argues that double counting of gold holdings is “endemic” in the global financial system.

 

But as the banks are allowed to sell the (leased or loaned) bullion into the global financial system, this has led to multiple counting of the gold.

 

Hinde says this gold (which is still owned by the central banks) can then enter ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Trust, when authorised participants (registered broker-dealers or other large market participants such as investment banks) swap the gold for new units in the ETF.

 

“We see it as highly likely that encumbered (without full ownership rights) gold or leased gold could be in ETF products”, says Ben Davies, chief executive of Hinde Capital: “If we were a major ETF holder, we would demand delivery of our physical bullion before all other investors demanded theirs from either ETFs or the OTC (over-the-counter) market.”

 

Hinde went on to say that a potential conflict of interest exists for the custodian of the SPDR gold, which is the investment bank HSBC, as it runs substantial short positions (bets on gold prices falling) in the derivatives market.

 

In reply, State Street said the gold held in the SPDR Trust was held in allocated accounts (where the bars are individually identified and numbered). A spokesman for State Street said that if a commercial bank had an obligation to a central bank (as part of a lease or loan agreement), then that was a matter for them and did not imply that there was any prior claim on the gold in the SPDR Trust.

 

A senior gold dealer in London said: “There will be gold in the physically backed bullion ETFs that at one time belonged to a central bank. But when a central bank leases or loans gold in the market, it does not require precisely the same bar with its reference number to be returned. ETFs are still the easiest way for private investors to own gold.”

[d2thdr]

In my opinion the crash will Happen when we least expect it. No point in waiting for it to materialise. I prefer it to be postponed for another couple of years it would give me an opportunity to purchase more gold. Gold will buy a lot of things in the very near future. There would be assets to purchase if youcan afford it. I believe gold can give that opportunity. Traders will always trade. It's the poor people like me who do not have the time and the inclination to trade. Gold has worked well for my parents and their parents.I am sure it will work for me. If it does not. Hopefully my future generations might benefit.

[Crashman begins]

Gold has worked well for my parents and their parents.I am sure it will work for mr. If it does not. Hopefully my future generations might benefit.

 

Please tell , I've always wanted to start a thread about those who did well from the last gold boom.

Did they purchase property outright, more than one ? How much did they have invested. How did they know it would rise etc ?

[Erewhon888]

The following section is from a Merrill Lynch report of the 17th August. The formatting is lost since just the text is copied from a pdf. Screen snapshots of the charts and tables are at the hosted links.

 

Gold

Overview

We have recently upgraded our forecast and see gold averaging $1,191/oz this

year and $1,350/oz in 2011 (see Global Metals Weekly, 21 June 2010). Our

positive view is heavily influenced by the current macroeconomic environment

and we therefore reinforce our positive outlook on the metal.

We argued back in October 2008 that gold prices would move up to $1500/oz in

three steps (see Global Metals Weekly, 10 August 2010):

? The outburst of the credit crisis in August 2007 marked the start of the first

stage where gold started to reflect the rising risk premia, rising from $650/oz

to about $950/oz.

? The second stage of gold price appreciation, we argued well over a year ago,

would primarily be about USD weakness and lack of confidence in fiat

currencies. We argued that gold could break through $1,200/oz in this

second stage and strengthen against all currency crosses as governments

rushed to debase fiat currencies.

? The third and final stage will be driven, in our view, by a strong cyclical

recovery in energy and commodity prices.

Monetary policy will push gold prices higher

As policy measures help create an upswing in economic activity over the next two

years, cyclical pressures will come back into the system, likely resulting in a lot

more money chasing the same oil barrels or the same gold ounces.

Here is where we continue to see a third stage of gold price appreciation where

gold moves up on the back of higher oil and commodity prices (Chart 90).

Admittedly, chances of a robust upturn in economic activity have diminished, but

continued economic stimulus will ultimately create either growth or inflation.

Simply put, we still believe that more money chasing the same barrels will likely

push oil back up above $100/bbl over the next 18 months. As we expect gold to

maintain its long-run relationship with other commodities, we believe a significant

cyclical rally in oil prices could ultimately push gold to $1,500/oz (Chart 91).

Emerging market consumer demand for gold will surge

As incomes grow across a broad range of emerging economies, we expect

jewellery and coin demand to grow in countries like China and India. Physical

gold demand has been historically dominated by India. But following a series of

policy changes, China’s gold demand has also flourished of late (Chart 92).

Opening an organised gold exchange was one of the earliest steps implemented

by the government. The jewellery sector has also been gradually liberalised. For

a long time, gold hoarding had been prohibited but the removal of jewellery price

controls by China’s authorities will help spur demand.

And of course, the government itself has also been a steady gold buyer, raising

its gold holdings to 1,054 tons in recent years. After the sharp fall following the

financial crisis, global jewellery demand in 1Q10 was up 43% relative to 1Q09

(Chart 93). In our view, this trend is likely to continue going forward as EM

consumers’ purchasing power is spurred by economic growth and FX

appreciation.

EM FX reserves continue to grow and diversify

Perhaps one of the most supportive arguments to own gold comes from foreign

exchange reserves asset allocation in Emerging Markets (Chart 94). What are

foreign exchange reserves exactly? FX reserves typically include foreign currency

deposits, bonds, gold, SDRs and IMF reserve positions held by central banks and

monetary authorities. In recent years foreign exchange reserves have grown

exponentially as many Emerging Economies, led by China, opted to maintain

large trade account surpluses to fuel export-led growth. With a bleaker economic

growth outlook for the US and Europe ahead, it is unlikely that the pace of foreign

exchange reserve accumulation will continue on the back of large EM trade

surpluses. However, substantial capital outflows from developed to emerging

economies could lend support to EM foreign exchange reserve accumulation for a

number of years (Chart 95). Moreover, given the relatively low share of gold in

EM FX reserve portfolios, we believe that diversification into the yellow metal will

likely continue over the next few years.

The importance of central bank gold purchases is also reflected in Table 20,

which shows that EM central banks from India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius have

absorbed almost three-quarters of sales that have emanated under the umbrella

of the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

Gold supply trails the expansion in global nominal GDP

In effect, the increase in the global stock of gold is roughly equivalent to the

increased mined output every year. In 2009 and 2010 we estimate this figure to

be 2,350 and 2,300 tons, or roughly 1.5% of the current global above-ground

stock of gold. With governments around the world loosening up monetary policy

to stimulate the economy, not enough gold is mined out of the ground relative to

other goods in the economy. Because the public finances of the US, Japan,

Britain and the Eurozone are in such dire straits, it is hard to envision how these

countries will return to trend economic growth without robust foreign demand,

suggesting that this dynamic could go on for a while.

 

http://www.mediafire.com/imgbnc.php/18d7d9...2713afa286g.jpg

 

http://www.mediafire.com/i/?ue63i48my5d68nq

 

http://www.mediafire.com/imgbnc.php/b3b5d3...852bd3eb16g.jpg

 

http://www.mediafire.com/imgbnc.php/e50edb...4372c187a6g.jpg

 

http://www.mediafire.com/imgbnc.php/328207...dc8ba26fe6g.jpg

 

[absolutezero]

I'm yet to be convinced that gold ISN'T in a bubble. I do have some but I'll not be buying more.

Seems to fit the classic 'Anatomy of a bubble' graph.

[Fortune]

ABSOLUTELY when the sheeple finally wake up ( and unfortunately some paper bulls without any physical) to the REALITY that they might as well use monopoly money as fiat as it has exactly the same intrinsic value 0.Why /How anyone with eyes that can see and ears that can hear are still unable to see whats coming down the pipe absolutely staggers me.

It will be at this moment when we will have the start of our 'Freegold' era. And not a moment before. If I were to hazard a guess it would be either in 2012 or 2016. It's all about the cycles, jack...

 

The problem is what will happen in between though: could be nuked off the face of the earth from an Israel-Iranian WWIII conflict. I just hope we will be all around (and in one piece) to see it.

[G0ldfinger]

I'm yet to be convinced that gold ISN'T in a bubble. I do have some but I'll not be buying more.

Seems to fit the classic 'Anatomy of a bubble' graph.

Show me the bubble.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold...rium_Price.html

[Catflap]

nice to see I made such an impact on you though catflap, as you clearly still remember me.

 

I haven't posted for absolutely ages? & did so purposely to show that I could & that I clearly wasn't a 'troll'

even though certain posters kept putting statements up about me etc........hopefully I have proven my worth in that regard & will continue to do so.

 

other people's over-inflated egos you say.......

 

Funny how you keep coming back when you announce to all on here that you are are leaving - the gold thread is now the sandpit for toddlers again. No point in posting anything useful anymore as it's a waste of my time whilst there are trolls and wind-up merchants around.

 

No, I don't have an over-inflated ego - I just put forward the opposing view on here when I believe others are wrong on the market and try to make sure this site doesn't get trashed and turned into HPC2. Otherwise there's no point in sticking around....

[absolutezero]

Show me the bubble.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold...rium_Price.html

By selectively choosing your graph you've made it appear there is no bubble.

Show me a graph of gold price, in US dollars, for the last 10 years.

[Fortune]

By selectively choosing your graph you've made it appear there is no bubble.

Show me a graph of gold price, in US dollars, for the last 10 years.

The graph show the ratio of the price of gold in dollars versus the Money of Zero Maturity (cash dollar in your wallet and bank account). The last time gold was 'officially' in a bubble the price of gold touched a ratio of 0.25 of the total dollar paper cash available for folks like you and me (I presume this is only is US-centric rather than a global MZM measure). To even get to get to half of the price that was on offer in the late 70's, gold would have to quadruple from here (something like $4000 per ounce, GF?). So thus no bubble here so far.

[absolutezero]

The graph show the ratio of the price of gold in dollars versus the Money of Zero Maturity (cash dollar in your wallet and bank account). The last time gold was 'officially' in a bubble the price of gold touched a ratio of 0.25 of the total dollar paper cash available for folks like you and me (I presume this is only is US-centric rather than a global MZM measure). To even get to get to half of the price that was on offer in the late 70's, gold would have to quadruple from here (something like $4000 per ounce, GF?). So thus no bubble here so far.

This is the problem with statistics and graphs.

Depending on what you want to prove you can present the data how you like.

As far as I am concerned gold is in a classic bubble.

As far as some other people on here are concerned, it's not in anything like a bubble.

[G0ldfinger]

By selectively choosing your graph you've made it appear there is no bubble.

Show me a graph of gold price, in US dollars, for the last 10 years.

I can, but it is irrelevant since what is really important is relative value in comparison to other monetary or economic measures. For instance, the Einsteins at Fortune think that debt is not in a bubble, but think so about gold, only from looking at the nominal chart.

 

OK, so here is the nominal debt chart. No bubble, eh?

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/US_F...ernal_Debt.html

 

Well, because they don't care about gold, they selectively compared debt or debt payments with GDP. While I don't say anything against that, they also chose to ignore other unfunded liabilities.

[G0ldfinger]

...

Well, because they don't care about gold, they selectively compared debt or debt payments with GDP. While I don't say anything against that, they also chose to ignore other unfunded liabilities.

So, further to this, here is a GDP:debt chart and a GDP:gold chart. LOW values mean HIGH debt respectively HIGH gold.

 

What do we see. Well, gee, debt is actually at an all-time high (bubble top) EXCLUDING unfunded liabilities(!!), while gold is far off its former highs (not even closing in on the bubble stage yet).

 

Can anyone please tell the Einsteins at Fortune? Cheers.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/GDP-...-Ratio_LOG.html

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/GDP-...-Ratio_LOG.html

[absolutezero]

So, further to this, here is a GDP:debt chart and a GDP:gold chart. LOW values mean HIGH debt respectively HIGH gold.

 

What do we see. Well, gee, debt is actually at an all-time high (bubble top) EXCLUDING unfunded liabilities(!!), while gold is far off its former highs (not even closing in on the bubble stage yet).

 

Can anyone please tell the Einsteins at Fortune? Cheers.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/GDP-...-Ratio_LOG.html

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/GDP-...-Ratio_LOG.html

I'm not saying gold isn't a good investment.

What I do say is: Is gold a good investment now?

And: I don't think holding most of your wealth in gold is a good idea. 10%? 20%? Why not? But over 50% and I think you're barking.

[G0ldfinger]

The graph show the ratio of the price of gold in dollars versus the Money of Zero Maturity (cash dollar in your wallet and bank account). The last time gold was 'officially' in a bubble the price of gold touched a ratio of 0.25 of the total dollar paper cash available for folks like you and me (I presume this is only is US-centric rather than a global MZM measure). To even get to get to half of the price that was on offer in the late 70's, gold would have to quadruple from here (something like $4000 per ounce, GF?). So thus no bubble here so far.

The chart divides the price of gold by a theoretical (MZM) price that gold would have to have such that the Fed gold reserves could back the MZM money supply 100%. Since the reserves have (supposedly) been more or less unchanged, you're essentially right that you see something like gold price/MZM.

 

If that ratio today was as high as back at the top in Jan. 1980, the price of gold on Friday (Aug. 20) would have had to be $9,078.54/oz at the AM Fixing. At $1,200, I just can't see the bubble, sorry. Far too much money sloshing around.

[G0ldfinger]

What I do say is: Is gold a good investment now?

Should you go in 100% (with your PM allocation) now? It depends on many things, risk preferences etc. If you have a more than 1-y time horizon, I would def. start averaging in. Silver, however, is still cheaper.

 

And: I don't think holding most of your wealth in gold is a good idea. 10%? 20%? Why not? But over 50% and I think you're barking.

Again, it depends on personal preferences. However, say you are a middle-aged lifetime tenured state employee. Your income is a (badly?) inflation-hedged bond. You maybe have a private pension fund (in stocks!?) on the side, and you might even have a substantial amount of money stuck in a house. I think it would be mad to not be 100% in gold then, because you are a HUGE bond, with the rest in shares and houses. That is just so bad, as much gold as possible needs to be bought to make up for this gross (and maybe fairly unintended, but what can you do) mis-allocation.

 

EDIT: Again, the difference of total wealth and liquid wealth is important here. People often don't properly account for their lifetime income etc. In the above case, anything liquid (ie. outside the house and pension found) should possibly be in precious metals just for diversification alone.

[absolutezero]

Should you go in 100% (with your PM allocation) now? It depends on many things, risk preferences etc. If you have a more than 1-y time horizon, I would def. start averaging in. Silver, however, is still cheaper.

I believe silver will, in % terms, rise in price more than gold.

Again, it depends on personal preferences. However, say you are a middle-aged lifetime tenured state employee.

No such thing since 2008.

Your income is a (badly?) inflation-hedged bond. You maybe have a private pension fund (in stocks!?) on the side, and you might even have a substantial amount of money stuck in a house. I think it would be mad to not be 100% in gold then, because you are a HUGE bond, with the rest in shares and houses. That is just so bad, as much gold as possible needs to be bought to make up for this gross (and maybe fairly unintended, but what can you do) mis-allocation.

 

EDIT: Again, the difference of total wealth and liquid wealth is important here. People often don't properly account for their lifetime income etc. In the above case, anything liquid (ie. outside the house and pension found) should possibly be in precious metals just for diversification alone.

Now this raises a very interesting idea. Must admit to never having thought of myself as a bond.

 

What if you see your lifetime salary as an inflation hedged bond, you have a public sector final salary pension, 10% of your liquid assets in precious metals and another 15% in FTSE100 shares and the rest in cash?

[G0ldfinger]

What if you see your lifetime salary as an inflation hedged bond, you have a public sector final salary pension, 10% of your liquid assets in precious metals and another 15% in FTSE100 shares and the rest in cash?

It obviously all depends on your personal financial situation and how much savings/assets you have.

 

Say, you are a 40-year old state employee on 50K/year and you have been there long enough to get a 50% final salary pension. Assume 80 years life span. Since all payments are inflation-adjusted, we don't discount them and we assume a retirement age of 65. The future lifetime income is 25x50K + 15x25K = 1.625M. Say you own a house outright, 250K. Say you have another pension fund of 50K, and your truly free assets (your "savings") are 100K (which is nice given you own the house outright and you have a safe job). Total assets: 2.025M. Now you put 10% (10K) of your liquid assets in gold, the rest in cash, and you think you are diversified.

 

OK, let's see. You have 10K/2.025M = 0.494% in gold, most of the rest in a bond (80.247%), a little in the house (12.346%), and 4.444% in cash.

 

0.494% (i.e. next to nothing) in gold, and the rest in investments (bond, house, stocks, cash!!) that will most likely suck big time.

 

You are NOT exactly well diversified in that case.

 

EDIT: Had to correct my figures.

 

EDIT2: Even if you put all savings (100K) in gold (wuahahaha, ALL eggs in one basket) you are still below 5% gold allocation! Indeed, ALL eggs are still in your bond (lifetime income) basket. Good luck. People who are in such a position (as above, with 10K in gold) and think they hold a lot of gold, they could as well spit into the Pacific and be proud that they raised the water level.

 

EDIT3: One could argue that there has to be tax paid on the income and daily expenses etc. However, that doesn't change the little gold figure too much (even if it doubled it), and in the end all expenses go out of one pot of assets (the ingredients, admittedly, get differently taxed).

[lyb]

Does anybody understand the increase of the gold price from 1209 to the current 1234$/ounch, in spite of the

decline in the Dow?

[absolutezero]

It obviously all depends on your personal financial situation and how much savings/assets you have.

 

Say, you are a 40-year old state employee on 50K/year and you have been there long enough to get a 50% final salary pension.

Impossible for most people. Like most, you over-estimate public sector pay. But we'll go with it for these purposes.

Assume 80 years life span. Since all payments are inflation-adjusted, we don't discount them and we assume a retirement age of 65. The future lifetime income is 25x50K + 15x25K = 1.625M. Say you own a house outright, 250K. Say you have another pension fund of 50K

These are crazy assumptions you know.

, and your truly free assets (your "savings") are 100K (which is nice given you own the house outright and you have a safe job). Total assets: 2.025M. Now you put 10% (10K) of your liquid assets in gold, the rest in cash, and you think you are diversified.

 

OK, let's see. You have 10K/2.025M = 0.494% in gold, most of the rest in a bond (80.247%), a little in the house (12.346%), and 4.444% in cash.

 

0.494% (i.e. next to nothing) in gold, and the rest in investments (bond, house, stocks, cash!!) that will most likely suck big time.

 

You are NOT exactly well diversified in that case.

 

EDIT: Had to correct my figures.

 

EDIT2: Even if you put all savings (100K) in gold (wuahahaha, ALL eggs in one basket) you are still below 5% gold allocation! Indeed, ALL eggs are still in your bond (lifetime income) basket. Good luck. People who are in such a position (as above, with 10K in gold) and think they hold a lot of gold, they could as well spit into the Pacific and be proud that they raised the water level.

 

EDIT3: One could argue that there has to be tax paid on the income and daily expenses etc. However, that doesn't change the little gold figure too much (even if it doubled it), and in the end all expenses go out of one pot of assets (the ingredients, admittedly, get differently taxed).

I do suspect some "creative accounting" has gone on here!

[G0ldfinger]

Does anybody understand the increase of the gold price from 1209 to the current 1234$/ounch, in spite of the

decline in the Dow?

I think the two charts below should explain it.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

[G0ldfinger]

These are crazy assumptions you know.

Why?

 

I do suspect some "creative accounting" has gone on here!

Not really.