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We could have $1,300 this afternoon given the bullishness of this market right now.

Possible but unlikely. More likely is 1300 in the next month or so, before consolidating to 1250 or so, before going back to 1300 odd....

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Thanks for the reply.

I think the reason I'm cautious of bullionvault is that Lord Rothschild has a 12.5 million stake in it. I don't like the thought of him and his new world order buddies controlling the place I store my 'insurance' against the future. I don't trust insurance companies to pay up when someone breaks in and steals my bullion. It's all about trust, and nobody is trustworthy. You're probably spot on about the diversity, splits up the risk.

 

I know a lot less about silver. What I do know is that I pay VAT to buy it, but don't get it back when I sell it. So it has to rise by 20% in value before I even make that back? Seems odd to me. Maybe I'm missing something. Do most people use something like coininvestdirect to buy/sell gold and silver?

Sure, there's always goldmoney besides bullionvault.

 

There's a lot of information on silver on the silver thread, where I'm sure the silver specialists can answer any questions you have.

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Sure, there's always goldmoney besides bullionvault.

 

There's a lot of information on silver on the silver thread, where I'm sure the silver specialists can answer any questions you have.

or Sarnia silver in the Channel islands who send each coin by post and it's VAT free for each item under £18.

*(warning: they send each item individually)

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Thanks for the reply.

I think the reason I'm cautious of bullionvault is that Lord Rothschild has a 12.5 million stake in it. I don't like the thought of him and his new world order buddies controlling the place I store my 'insurance' against the future. I don't trust insurance companies to pay up when someone breaks in and steals my bullion. It's all about trust, and nobody is trustworthy. You're probably spot on about the diversity, splits up the risk.

 

I know a lot less about silver. What I do know is that I pay VAT to buy it, but don't get it back when I sell it. So it has to rise by 20% in value before I even make that back? Seems odd to me. Maybe I'm missing something. Do most people use something like coininvestdirect to buy/sell gold and silver?

 

My advice to you would be to take delivery. keep it close at hand. Do not bother trading or looking at ratios to swap gold or silver. It will be a waste of your time. Buy as much physical as possible. Also buy silver if you want. VAT on silver should be considered as the tax you pay to get out of fiat. I have learnt a lot from people here and in general reading on internet. Let no one tell you what you should be doing. Make you own mind up. If you have not yet read, try reading the posts on buying gold/silver

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3757

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2887

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3782

 

You could get some bargains on ebay. I would advise you stray clear. One the integrity of seller can be of doubt. You do not all and sundry to know where you live.

 

Also read the articles posted by another, friend of another and friend of friend of another here http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

 

Good luck. Think about it this way. Gold is expensive for many today. But you know this and you can still buy it. There will be a time in the near future where gold wont be available to buy at what ever price. Many people disagree on the arrival of such an event. I was not so sure not too long ago. But now I have no doubt in my mind that such a time will be seen within the next 10 years maximum. Be glad that you are just ahead of the wave. There are lots of youngsters and oldies out there who have no clue of this coming catastrophe. You might be one in your family who will be looked up to for your foresight. I just wish I was as switched on as you are when I passed out of university. Good luck.

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Excellent advice from d2thdr. Gold is used to store wealth because men cannot be trusted to keep their promises. Entrusting your gold to others is the height of foolishness - as many will find out in the future.

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Excellent advice from d2thdr. Gold is used to store wealth because men cannot be trusted to keep their promises. Entrusting your gold to others is the height of foolishness - as many will find out in the future.

 

+ 1

 

I couldn't put it better myself

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An old one

 

help to forecast a top in gold - of course its a moving target and people could always start burning dollars to reduce the currency in circulation

 

link

 

499953-126321195181994-Joseph-Brom_origin.png

 

From 1950 to October 1979 the gold price was adjusting for 30 years of monetary inflation. As the graph illustrates, the gold price equaled the gold standard gold price several times between 1979 and 1983.

 

In 1979, the gold price stayed within 10% of the gold standard gold price for 12 weeks, 11 of which the gold price stayed within 5% of the gold standard gold price.

 

In 1981 the gold price again stayed within 10% of the gold standard gold price for 31 weeks, 7 of which were with 5%, despite a decrease of 482,261.25 ounces of US owned gold since 1979.

 

In 1982, the gold price again stayed within 10% of the gold standard gold price for 2 weeks, including 1 week within 5%, despite a decrease of 96,452.25 ounces of US owned gold since 1981.

 

Finally in 1983, the gold price again stayed within 10% of the gold standard gold price for 8 weeks, including 6 weeks within 5%, despite a decrease of 643,015 ounces of US owned gold since 1982.

 

Over the course of 3.5 years, the gold price tracked the gold standard gold price in spite of a 30% increase in the currency and a decrease of 1,221,728.5 ounces of US owned gold. The gold price followed the gold standard gold price within 10% for 30% of the time, and within 5% for 15% of the time. This suggests that the metric used to value gold during this period was the currency divided by the ounces of US owned gold. Thus the market backed the US dollar with gold even though the US wasn’t on an official gold standard.

 

For the gold price to adjust for the past 26 years of monetary inflation, the price will equal $3,286.06 (dividing the currency $859.1 billion by 261,498,900.32 ounces of gold held by the US). Since the Federal Reserve Bank’s average yearly increase in the currency since 1929 is 8% (11.5% since 1971), the $3286.06 gold price will continue to increase an average of between 8% and 11.5% annually. If similar price increases were to occur today as in the 1980s, the gold price could peak as high as $7000, and could easily reach $5500.

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Excellent advice from d2thdr. Gold is used to store wealth because men cannot be trusted to keep their promises. Entrusting your gold to others is the height of foolishness - as many will find out in the future.

 

You'd really keep kilos at home? Seems more of a risk to me than "trusting" goldmoney, although I am not entirely comfortable with the remote aspect...

 

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You'd really keep kilos at home? Seems more of a risk to me than "trusting" goldmoney, although I am not entirely comfortable with the remote aspect...

 

I never mentioned kilos or home - just advised against entrusting it to others. Possession in a place that only you know about and can access easily - that can be accomplished in many ways.

 

If you would rather trust someone that you have never met over and above yourself to look after your gold, good luck to you.

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Excellent advice from d2thdr. Gold is used to store wealth because men cannot be trusted to keep their promises. Entrusting your gold to others is the height of foolishness - as many will find out in the future.

There are all sorts of risks in life. Why not spread the risk by spreading your bullion holding about; a bit at home, a bit in the vault, a bit with an allocated internet bank or two... even perhaps a little bit with [shock/ horror] an unallocated account [for convenience, or to suit your purposes].

 

Society is built on [at least a modicum] of trust.

 

 

Gold is tested by a touchstone, and men by gold.

 

Some ancient philosopher.

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Gold Recovers From Biggest Drop Since July After Bangladesh IMF Purchase

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-10/g...f-purchase.html

 

Gold increased on speculation that Bangladesh’s purchase of 10 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund may signal growing demand for the metal as an alternative asset.

 

Gold for immediate delivery added 0.2 percent to $1,245.50 an ounce at 11 a.m. Seoul time. The price yesterday dropped 0.9 percent, the biggest loss since July 27, after data showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in July and filings for jobless benefits plunged last week. The price is little changed this week after five straight weeks of gains.

 

The central bank of Bangladesh purchased the metal for about $403 million, the Washington-based IMF said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. The sale was conducted “on the basis of market prices” prevailing on Sept. 7, the statement said.

 

The transaction “will push gold higher as central bank purchases have traditionally been a major factor fueling the price,” said Hwang Il Doo, a senior trader at Korea Exchange Bank Futures Co. in Seoul. “Central banks want to diversify their reserves because of the unstable dollar and we may probably see more such buying down the road.”

 

Bullion, which touched $1,262.45 an ounce on Sept. 8, just 0.2 percent from June’s all-time high, may advance to $1,400 next year, Hwang said.

 

IMF Sales

 

The IMF has sold 222 tons of gold to central banks since the agency said in September 2009 that it would put 403.3 tons up for sale. Last year India acquired 200 tons of the precious metal, Sri Lanka bought 10 tons and Mauritius purchased 2 tons.

 

Gold has risen 14 percent this year, set for a 10th straight annual gain, as investors sought to preserve their wealth from Europe’s financial turmoil and a slowing global economic recovery.

 

The Dollar Index, a gauge of the U.S. currency against six major counterparts, has dropped 3.6 percent since July 1.

 

Twenty of 25 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 80 percent, said the metal will gain next week as concern that the world economic recovery is stalling spurs demand for the metal to protect wealth. Three forecast lower prices and two were neutral.

 

Futures for December delivery dropped 0.4 percent to $1,246.50 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

 

Silver for immediate delivery was little changed at $19.6912 an ounce after yesterday dropping 1.1 percent, the biggest fall since Aug. 20. Platinum was little changed at $1,553.50 an ounce and palladium declined 0.2 percent to $522.75 an ounce.

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Thanks for the post d2thdr, I appreciate it. Solid things for me to think about.

OK, my 2p:

 

- Physical gold and silver coin (or small bullion) to be stored outside the banking system and owned by you outright should be your first concern. Get enough so you'll feel comfortable with the thought of a SHTF scenario. Only ever have so much in your own house (if at all) that you would give it away with no regret when threatened. Keep in mind: an ounce of gold will buy the whole supermarket, while an ounce of silver will buy one aisle - you don't want to buy the whole market everytime you go shopping.

 

- Next, you can think about services like GoldMoney or BullionVault. It's the next best thing to "physical in your hand/vault/locker".

 

- I would not touch ETFs and I would not touch anything "bank" i.e. no certificates or gold accounts with banks.

 

- If you want leverage, increase your silver holdings or buy shares. Selecting the right mining shares can be a lot of work, so you might want to consider a fund. Don't do anything on margin since the volatility could kill you.

 

- Diversify. All gold or all silver is not good, similarly, 95% of your assets stored in one vault in one country is also not good.

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I never mentioned kilos or home - just advised against entrusting it to others. Possession in a place that only you know about and can access easily - that can be accomplished in many ways.

 

If you would rather trust someone that you have never met over and above yourself to look after your gold, good luck to you.

 

Very wise words from a very wise Schaublin. ;)

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Regarding allocated storage, I know that many are happy with the legal aspects of this and are convinced that it is a secure way to store bullion. My thoughts are that they well be safe today and tomorrow but I wonder what would happen for example in a currency crisis. A private company sitting on many tonnes of gold is going to look an awfully tempting fruit to pick by the State. The legal technicalities are not an obstacle to the State in extremis - if necessary, the law can be changed overnight.

 

I expect many have considered this possibility but it is worth remembering that at the precise time that gold becomes a financial lifeboat, someone bigger than you may grab your seat!

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http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.c...;max-results=50

 

 

some snippits:

 

 

"The Market Is Drunk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote

 

The gold to long bond (30 year) ratio just crossed the 200 day MA today. We have been watching this ratio for some time as it indicates how the market perceived the safety of gold vs sovereign bonds since both are considered safe havens. A high gold to bond ratio is a sign of sovereign illness, rather than strength.

Note on the 3 year chart how this ratio has been climbing steadily. We are double the rate we were in 2008.

 

If the ratio climbs above 10 again and stays there, we are in hazardous territory. The last time we were in this nosebleed territory was in 1981 during a deep recession. As the economy recovered the ratio declined - in other words bonds outperformed gold after 1981. Then in 2002, the ratio bottomed out and began to climb during Allan Greenspan's tenure.

 

The danger, as I see it, is that if a more responsible approach is not taken with US finances soon, gold will continue to outperform bonds and we could see a surge of dollars into gold and a crash in the bond market.

If the bond market crashes, that will leave the economy with a terrible hangover. The unspoken threat, is that a bond market collapse could also trigger a run on the dollar, leading to severe inflation (even though we are in a deflationary period currently). ;)

 

This is the nightmare scenario.

A collapse in confidence in the US dollar.

 

Hopefully it never plays out."

 

 

 

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Regarding allocated storage, I know that many are happy with the legal aspects of this and are convinced that it is a secure way to store bullion. My thoughts are that they well be safe today and tomorrow but I wonder what would happen for example in a currency crisis. A private company sitting on many tonnes of gold is going to look an awfully tempting fruit to pick by the State. The legal technicalities are not an obstacle to the State in extremis - if necessary, the law can be changed overnight.

 

I expect many have considered this possibility but it is worth remembering that at the precise time that gold becomes a financial lifeboat, someone bigger than you may grab your seat!

I have thought about this possiblity many many times. Believe me I have. Most 'serious' (no disrespect intended) gold-holders have already factored this into their equations. For instance, what are the chances of the US government grabbing gold from a pivate vault versus the chances of the Swiss or British or Hong Kong governments doing the same? The chances depend upon your own political (and geo-political) outlook. I would say the US is at the top of the potential thief list along with the UK. The Swiss however are probably near the bottom of the list. So we are talking about juristiction now right? As usual, do the calculations and hedge as best you can DYODD.

 

You might ask: so what if the whole world descided to blatantly steal private gold holdings. Really what are the chances of that? I'm not saying its impossible but I personally think it's very unlikely. That scenario sound most definately be like the NWO-era. What's some sovs and krugs in your attic in maistone going to do you for you in that situtation? Good luck trying to cash in your coins then, you will certainly need it. I think what's more realistic is the US and some of its minions going after the metal holdings in the banking system - which is what goldfinger and others have been warning about. Also FOFOA doesn't believe confiscation will happen ever again, and many GEI'ers (including myself) rate his views very highly.

 

So thus I wouldn't get so hung up about the whole issue. The major thing to consider is the juristiction of your gold holdings. Was it Arch Crawford or someone who said that the best way to protect your wealth from the government was to live in one place, have citizenship from another and keep some your wealth in a third country. But how many people can do that? Just be cautious and do what you think is best for yourself is my humble advice.

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I have thought about this possiblity many many times. Believe me I have. Most 'serious' (no disrespect intended) gold-holders have already factored this into their equations. For instance, what are the chances of the US government grabbing gold from a pivate vault versus the chances of the Swiss or British or Hong Kong governments doing the same? The chances depend upon your own political (and geo-political) outlook. I would say the US is at the top of the potential thief list along with the UK. The Swiss however are probably near the bottom of the list. So we are talking about juristiction now right? As usual, do the calculations and hedge as best you can DYODD.

 

You might ask: so what if the whole world descided to blatantly steal private gold holdings. Really what are the chances of that? I'm not saying its impossible but I personally think it's very unlikely. That scenario sound most definately be like the NWO-era. What's some sovs and krugs in your attic in maistone going to do you for you in that situtation? Good luck trying to cash in your coins then, you will certainly need it. I think what's more realistic is the US and some of its minions going after the metal holdings in the banking system - which is what goldfinger and others have been warning about. Also FOFOA doesn't believe confiscation will happen ever again, and many GEI'ers (including myself) rate his views very highly.

 

So thus I wouldn't get so hung up about the whole issue. The major thing to consider is the juristiction of your gold holdings. Was it Arch Crawford or someone who said that the best way to protect your wealth from the government was to live in one place, have citizenship from another and keep some your wealth in a third country. But how many people can do that? Just be cautious and do what you think is best for yourself is my humble advice.

 

 

Some very well-made points - especially about the UK and US being most likely to steal from its citizens. I also, hold FOFOA in high regard and have read what he has written about confiscation but had assumed he was talking about something similar to the US in 1933. Allocated bullion storage is something rather different IMO.

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I have thought about this possiblity many many times. Believe me I have. Most 'serious' (no disrespect intended) gold-holders have already factored this into their equations. For instance, what are the chances of the US government grabbing gold from a pivate vault versus the chances of the Swiss or British or Hong Kong governments doing the same? The chances depend upon your own political (and geo-political) outlook. I would say the US is at the top of the potential thief list along with the UK. The Swiss however are probably near the bottom of the list. So we are talking about juristiction now right? As usual, do the calculations and hedge as best you can DYODD.

 

You might ask: so what if the whole world descided to blatantly steal private gold holdings. Really what are the chances of that? I'm not saying its impossible but I personally think it's very unlikely. That scenario sound most definately be like the NWO-era. What's some sovs and krugs in your attic in maistone going to do you for you in that situtation? Good luck trying to cash in your coins then, you will certainly need it. I think what's more realistic is the US and some of its minions going after the metal holdings in the banking system - which is what goldfinger and others have been warning about. Also FOFOA doesn't believe confiscation will happen ever again, and many GEI'ers (including myself) rate his views very highly.

 

So thus I wouldn't get so hung up about the whole issue. The major thing to consider is the juristiction of your gold holdings. Was it Arch Crawford or someone who said that the best way to protect your wealth from the government was to live in one place, have citizenship from another and keep some your wealth in a third country. But how many people can do that? Just be cautious and do what you think is best for yourself is my humble advice.

 

I think they are more likely to tax the gains on bullion etc heavily

 

 

 

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I think they are more likely to tax the gains on bullion etc heavily

 

Yes you could be right. However, with that possibility people might not really sell gold. Besides there could be other places to live that might choose not to tax to death the gains gold makes in fiat. Always a different way to look at the same thing. You are also kind of assuming the existence of a system similar to right now where all the vestiges of governmental control are still intact. How many stooges will the government support with fiat? Or how many will choose to carry on working for a system when they are not making ends meet? What if the system becomes such that only the stooges working for government are the only ones who get paid in fiat or in terms of daily food ration? Would it still be worth living in such a society, gold or no gold? Would you rather not have few more options? Easier said than done. ;):huh:

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I would encourage everyone to read this post on Freegold I now agree that USD will also gain as we move down the Exters pyramid. However, I think Romans you have restricted your thinking to just that. If you take your thought one step ahead you proabably would agree that USD wont be worth much for very long. It might be functional in the US, but it wont be functional as a reserve currency. Please read the post along with the comments.

Exter's pyramid is a useful place to start, but I don't consider myself restricted to it. I've often mentioned the need to "internationalize" the pyramid to include minor and major currencies, where major ones are likely to stengthen at the expense of minor ones. When the drive towards liquidity renews itself, capital will move from the overheating economies on the periphery to the funding/ reserve currencies at the centre... dollar and Yen spike.

 

I see "ender" also comments on a strong dollar, but I'm not sure if I understand his reasons:

 

You can have the strongest currency in the room, but if it will not buy what you want it’s effectively worthless.

......

So we revisit the first question, can the dollar stay strong in gold? Well, the strength of the dollar will be its downfall against gold. You can simply buy too much with it, there will be nothing left for oil. Another saw this years ago as he witnessed the cornering of the physical market. We have been on a path to default ever since.

 

In what way can the strongest currency not buy you what you want? My take on this is the US economy, will be crucified on a strong dollar [perhaps a form of natural justice here] in much the way Japan is, but possibly worse. Most will be paying off debt [the burden of which will increase] while those few that have dollars will hoard them. So it will not be the case that people will not buy what they want... they just will not want to buy, and will prefer instead the "liquidity preference". This is all bad news for the surplus exporting countires because demand destruction in developed economies will erode/ destroy their markets.

 

Yes, I think the dollar will stay relatively strong against gold... as has been the case over the past few years. Gold hasn't exploded to the upside, nor crashed. Instead just an incremental and steady rise aginst the dollar. Putting gold at the centre, which has become central to these kinds of discussions lately, entails that the prices of assets and rates of currencies deflate against the dollar, which in turn deflates against gold. This is a hyper-deflation against gold, as currencies themselves are caught in the vortex of an erosion in monetary value. The pyramid frames this nicely.

 

When capital runs from risk and into the perceived safety of dollar, Yen and gold, all of this will lead to economic carnage and depression. From an economic perspective, dollar and gold will be like black holes sucking up all the capital that should be fuelling productive investments and employment. After being neglected so long, the "store of value" function of money will take its revenge and wreak havoc. What worked so well, in a period of expansion, for the economy in a free-market credit-based fiat monetary system will only work detrimentally in a period of contraction. This is why CBs rightly fear delation so much.

 

And here I agree with you that something will be done about the dollar in the not too distant future. Assuming that deflation will run its course, the only way out of economic implosion is for the CBs to throw free-market fundamentalism overboard. They will have to acknowledge that the US-centric fiat/ credit money system has failed, and institute a new system at the international level. Instituting a new system will enable them to devalue the existing dollar relative to surplus currencies/ creditor countries [this is what is most important] by going back to a gold standard. This might just involve the market price of gold capped at some point,at a time when capital is increasingly pouring into it. The price could be 2000/ 3000 but the nominal price is quite irrelevant here [a fixation on numbers is only money illusion]. What is more relevant is the level at which other currencies are fixed/ priced to gold and rebalanced against each-other. By doing so, this new truly international system will involve a haircut on creditor country reserves, but this will be wearable as the bulk of those reserves will be guaranteed, and global trade will be restored on an even keel.

 

 

FreeGold is based on the theory that gold has a value much higher than what the markets say. The Central Banks of the world are aware of this value. They trade gold amongst themselves based on this higher value. The purpose of the lower gold price on the exchanges is to gain oil from oil producing nations at a low, dollar denominated price. So the low gold price has a real use, a function, that is maintained by the Central Banks.

 

As for FreeGold, which, if I understand correctly it involves gold being free of both supposed manipulation and institutionalization, my money is on the re-institutionalization of gold... gold and government.

 

 

I doubt economists will willingly/ rationally go back on gold. Governments may instead be forced to at which point economists may be out of a job. Gold will be all about providing stability and a solid basis for trade. A combination of going back on gold, revaluing currencies, a stabilization of asset prices at lower levels, defaulting on some debt, haircuts all round, the rebuilding of exports, and a lowered standard of living might see developed countries muddle through.

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James Dines interview from sept 11 2010 i think he might be a gold bug.!!! :lol::lol:

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Bro...ames_Dines.html

 

Legendary James Dines has come out with a new prediction for a “Super Major Bull Market” on May 22nd of 2009 which has already made tremendous amounts of money for his subscribers. This is the first time in 9 years that James Dines has issued a call for a new “Super Major Bull Market.”

 

“The Hulbert Financial Digest updated its results through August of 2009. They show that the Dines Letter, edited by octogenarian James Dines, is up 87.5% over the year to date, versus 13.93% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index” (quote from an article by Peter Brimelow of MarketWatch read more...).

Saturday, September 11, 2010

James Dines

 

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Big Tommy O'Brien still holding out for 1075 USD gold

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1588378975&play=1

 

3mins 20

 

Gold getting competition from dollar and real estate. Buy a place for 100k, mortgage of 500 dollars per month rent it out for 600.

 

- Good luck finding solvent and reliable tennants Tommy! Also make sure you don't incur 1000k in fees and repairs or you are at zero!

 

4mins 20

 

Host: "so people should beware and understand that this [gold] is a commodity"

Tom: "absolutely"... "gold is not a safe haven its correlated with the market"

 

Jeezus - the WORLDS number one gold timer doesn't understand that gold is money :blink:

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Gold getting competition from dollar and real estate. Buy a place for 100k, mortgage of 500 dollars per month rent it out for 600.

Picking up dimes in front of a steamroller with a large weight tied to his ankle...for 1000 months (plus interest, plus costs).

 

 

Tom: "absolutely"... "gold is not a safe haven its correlated with the market"

Small fluctuations around the mean...

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm

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