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I think that 1300 USD is around the time that the dollar price of gold will be recognized more as a barometer of the teetering fiat system. My guess is that around 1600 USD will mark the point when the roller coaster tips over the edge. The self reinforcing loop of loss of confidence, higher gold price - leading to greater loss of confidence and so on.

Those who sell at 1600 thinking that they have made a good 'profit' will no doubt be rather piqued when their profit turns to dust and they realise that they threw away the only chance they had of preserving their wealth.

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I am still sticking to my call of $1450 I made back in the spring and think it could get near this price by Dec/Jan. If there is a black swan event, like a major bank collapsing or soverign default, it could go considerably higher. If there is no event by the end of Jan. I think it will sink back down below $1200. The key phrase in gold over the next couple of years will be volatility.

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On Simon Mayo, radio 2 today, about 5.33pm theres talk about Gold. They have interview with Adrian Ash from BV.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00ts...time_21_09_2010

 

About 29 mins in...

 

Still sounds to me like the MSM are discussing the best way to SELL gold... Adrian Ash didn't once say how easy it was for the general public to buy - no mention of what Bullion Vault offers to the consumer...

 

I'm a mere 15% in physical gold and silver, and i'm beginning to get twitchy. I consistently add a small amount every month, but my head tells me i am way too FIAT heavy... i don't quite have the nerve to pile in with lump sum higher volumes - particularly now when prices are reaching highs... i could do with a nice correction ready for me to step up my game.

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Still sounds to me like the MSM are discussing the best way to SELL gold... Adrian Ash didn't once say how easy it was for the general public to buy - no mention of what Bullion Vault offers to the consumer...

 

I'm a mere 15% in physical gold and silver, and i'm beginning to get twitchy. I consistently add a small amount every month, but my head tells me i am way too FIAT heavy... i don't quite have the nerve to pile in with lump sum higher volumes - particularly now when prices are reaching highs... i could do with a nice correction ready for me to step up my game.

I felt the same @ £550/oz

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If you honestly believe gold is going much higher from here, why buy at higher levels? Go on be brave! 30% is nothing!

 

i don't quite have the nerve to pile in with lump sum higher volumes - particularly now when prices are reaching highs... i could do with a nice correction ready for me to step up my game.

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I felt the same @ £550/oz

Yes, you really need to be as "rational" as you can about money. Gold naturally seems expensive here.... but if you consider you are swapping a weakening currency for a strengthening one, it's not so difficult to buy. $800/ $900 now looks cheap... it's all relative.

 

If you had a smaller percentage of your worth in gold [or none] and were feeling a little anxious, that seems to me a good reason to buy here.

 

Because of the volatility involved in the market today, I decided early on to stake out a position with which I could enjoy a zen-like detachment... that is priceless.

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... i could do with a nice correction ready for me to step up my game.

 

You are seeing a correction in Euros at the moment. Though it makes little sense to my small brain why this should be so.

 

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You are seeing a correction in Euros at the moment. Though it makes little sense to my small brain why this should be so.

It's all about dollar weakness at the mo [and conversely Euro strength]. This shows in a slightly higher US dollar gold price, even as the Euro price declines a little.

 

All of which confirms golds burgeoning status as a currency.

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Still sounds to me like the MSM are discussing the best way to SELL gold... Adrian Ash didn't once say how easy it was for the general public to buy - no mention of what Bullion Vault offers to the consumer...

 

I'm a mere 15% in physical gold and silver, and i'm beginning to get twitchy. I consistently add a small amount every month, but my head tells me i am way too FIAT heavy... i don't quite have the nerve to pile in with lump sum higher volumes - particularly now when prices are reaching highs... i could do with a nice correction ready for me to step up my game.

Hi dp, can I ask what purchasing currency you are waiting in, and have earmarked for gold? Because if you've decided to wait for a dip then the currency to wait in is either US dollars or Yen.

 

It's most likely that Pounds, along with most currencies, will tank faster than gold if gold did correct. So even if the price came down in dollars it might stay the same, or dip relatively insignificantly in Pounds. If a round of deleveraging was intense enough, the pound price may even increase at that time.

 

Looking at the price history of gold in Aussie and kiwi dollars [even more marginal commodity currencies] shows this dynamic... where the price is a lot more volatile.

 

 

aa.gif

 

 

If capital flows are sucked into the dollar, for whatever reason, other currencies may collapse at that time relative to gold and dollar. Notice that in 2008, the Aussie price went from 950 to 1300.... even as the US dollar price of gold was declining. If you'd been waiting in Aussie dollars for a sub 800 price you would've been sorely disappointed.

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Still sounds to me like the MSM are discussing the best way to SELL gold... Adrian Ash didn't once say how easy it was for the general public to buy - no mention of what Bullion Vault offers to the consumer...

 

I'm a mere 15% in physical gold and silver, and i'm beginning to get twitchy. I consistently add a small amount every month, but my head tells me i am way too FIAT heavy... i don't quite have the nerve to pile in with lump sum higher volumes - particularly now when prices are reaching highs... i could do with a nice correction ready for me to step up my game.

 

 

The technique I've been using is a simple averaging in in conjunction with a very basic moving indicator:

 

Whenever Price is between the 50 EMA and 150 EMA I'm in a buy zone.

 

As Price approaches 150 EMA My buy size increases.

 

Between the 150EMA and 365 EMA is a stronger buy zone - the 365 EMA being a critical support zone for my bull market view.

 

This is a simple old school technique to avoid buying peaks and chasing price - Of course it assumes that there is a Bull market in what you are purchasing

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Got me some major fiat that I want to be rid of. Probably going to be my final lot (really). Mainly because my salary isn't going to keep up at $1500, 2000, 3000, 4000 etc an oz. The remaining fiat with be just for living expenses. So you can blame me if the Da Boyz jam a clamp on the 'short gold and silver' button within the next few days. Apologies in advance!

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I felt the same @ £550/oz

If you honestly believe gold is going much higher from here, why buy at higher levels? Go on be brave! 30% is nothing!

 

Of course, I expected this response, and to be honest it's exctly what i have been thinking. I personally need to have a little think about just how much i am going to ultimately commit to PM's.

 

If you had a smaller percentage of your worth in gold [or none] and were feeling a little anxious, that seems to me a good reason to buy here.

 

Agreed. My problem is that I concentrate too much on the day-to-day ups and downs when really these are insignificant in relation to what could lie ahead.

 

RH, I am currently GBP. Looking for an opportunity to diversify a portion into USD also - which i may just do this week based on the current lapse in the dollar.

 

Jin, Thanks for your comments on buying the dips, i'll certainly take a look at this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Still sounds to me like the MSM are discussing the best way to SELL gold... Adrian Ash didn't once say how easy it was for the general public to buy - no mention of what Bullion Vault offers to the consumer...

 

I'm a mere 15% in physical gold and silver, and i'm beginning to get twitchy. I consistently add a small amount every month, but my head tells me i am way too FIAT heavy... i don't quite have the nerve to pile in with lump sum higher volumes - particularly now when prices are reaching highs... i could do with a nice correction ready for me to step up my game.

 

Do not wait, pull the trigger. DYOR.

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All of which confirms golds burgeoning status as a currency.

 

Gold IS NOT currency.

 

Gold IS MONEY.

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Gold IS NOT currency.

 

Gold IS MONEY.

 

Not Yet.

 

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Gold IS NOT currency.

 

Gold IS MONEY.

Depends on definitions.

 

You could say gold is neither; it's not a formal currency..... yet. But then, once it is formally monetized, with a gold standard, you could think of it as a super-currency... that which prices currencies.

 

Neither does it makes sense to say gold is money per se. Many things can function as money.... fiat and gold included. Just that gold may function better over the long term and in periods of crisis.

 

Personally, I like to say gold is the strongest symbol of money. This gives gold a premium position [while allowing that money is primarily a general idea, which avoids the theoretical can of worms involved with saying gold IS money]. This is why we tend to go back to gold in crises... and why gold was what modern representative currencies originally represented.

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Not Yet.

 

Says who?

 

'Gold is money' is is a universal fact. It is not an opinion. Just because they do not accept gold in a supermarket right now in the UK does not make it anything other than money. In most third world countries they would happily accept the gold as money.

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It's all about dollar weakness at the mo [and conversely Euro strength].

 

Why do you say 'conversely' RH, like it's the norm?!

Both have been on the wrong side of the seesaw together before.

Where is the sudden good news from Europe?

Late last week Portugal & Ireland were on the edge, again.

 

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Why do you say 'conversely' RH, like it's the norm?!

Both have been on the wrong side of the seesaw together before.

Where is the sudden good news from Europe?

Late last week Portugal & Ireland were on the edge, again.

No, not the norm, more in the way of just a temporary fluctuation. Fundamentals in the medium/ long term should see Euro weaken against dollar [imo] and even more against gold.... wait for the next European crisis to rear its head. But due to volatility, things can go anyway in the short term. Every which way but loose... I feel a song coming on. lol

 

As for news, the media is like the eye of Sauron at the moment, frantically looking this way then that for the latest threat to wealth and power. lol

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