GOLD

[Pixel8r]

When anything is "so obviously a buy" - it may be time to sell.

 

Do be careful, and take a look at the seasonal factors, suggesting a high around this week

This chart shows that you can't always expect a pullback in October, especially in times of a bull market (which gold has been in for 10 years). I would say there are a lot of different market conditions at the moment, which should out way the usual seasonal factors, like QE2 and the fact that the commercials are losing control and will need to start covering soon.

 

In a bull market the gold price should go up each month for the next 5 if seasonal factors have anything to do with it.

 

[getzegold]

This chart shows that you can't always expect a pullback in October, especially in times of a bull market (which gold has been in for 10 years). I would say there are a lot of different market conditions at the moment, which should out way the usual seasonal factors, like QE2 and the fact that the commercials are losing control and will need to start covering soon.

 

In a bull market the gold price should go up each month for the next 5 if seasonal factors have anything to do with it.

 

 

I'd essentially agree with that. Expect the unexpected. Look at the dow and FTSE for sept, wasn't everybody pointing to Hindenburg omens and proclaiming sept as traditionally the worst months for stocks? and what happened? the bull went on and blew the bears clean away. Sure we may have a correction in oct but then again we may not. The sound coming out of the fed and MPC are hinting at further QE supporting the stock markets and the PMs, demand in asia is till buoyant and who knows if we have another soverign failure scare the eurpoeans will be buying again. Crazy times we live in, I personally wouldn't rely on past perfomance to gauge future movements. The stock bears just learnt that the hard way in sept. New times require new ways of thinking. IMO

[G0ldfinger]

I feel like one of those children trapped in the back of a car, going "are we nearly there yet?".

No.

 

[G0ldfinger]

DER SPIEGEL reports that FT writes that JPMorgan has now re-opened/re-utilized their gold vault in NYC due to strongly increasing request for storage.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehm...,721235,00.html (in German)

[sid]

China & Russia buying more.

 

 

 

A Reuters poll of analysts last week found most felt gold’s run to record highs is likely to continue for the rest of 2010, with two out of three seeing prices above $1,350 by year-end.

A senior official at the World Gold Council told Reuters that central banks in Russia, China and the Philippines are expected to continue raising their gold holdings to balance their reserves, a potentially significant demand driver.

 

http://thefinancialdaily.com/news/commodit...ries-10613.aspx

[romans holiday]

Interesting idea Steve. But do you think the volatility that's been seen in the past will remain in the present/ future. I mean, the recent trend has shown much less volatility in the gold price. My theory for this is that it's being increasingly monetized.

 

If gold is starting to be bought more as an alternative currency then it might not be as volatile as when it was perceived more as a commodity/ inflation hedge. This fundamental factor may subvert the technicals.

[Pixel8r]

THE FEDERAL RESERVE is SELLING PAPER GOLD and BUYING PHYSICAL GOLD

 

[the good ole ‘American way’ – through proxies]

 

By Rob Kirby | 4/10/10

 

A couple of weeks ago, I pitched an idea to some associates of mine who are involved in SERIOUS [tonnage] PRECIOUS METALS procurement – physical metal only – let’s just say HUGE money. I asked them if they would be interested in purchasing an “option” – cash up front - for the exclusive rights [first right of refusal on off-take] of a gold producer [miner] for a set number of ounces for 3 – 5 years “at the market” – using LBMA pricing [a.m. / p.m. fixes] in the future. The answer I got back from my associates was “show us a terms sheet, we definitely have interest”.

 

So, I spoke to a friend who is very close to an intermediate producer who is in the mode of raising money right now. I had them ask the producer if they would have interest – the producer said, “YES, we are interested - but just to let you know – J.P. Morgan has been asking us if we would sell them the same option”. So, while gold producers have shuttered their “gold hedge books” – the Bullion Banks are ‘synthetically’ trying to keep physical output captive – I would suggest FOR THE EXPRESSED REASON THAT THEY SELL EVERY PHYSICAL OUNCE AT LEAST 100 TIMES OVER.

 

Gold is going to get EXTREMELY scarce in the future folks. Big money interests are now cutting off [or bidding for / gaining exclusive access to] the traditional bullion supply chain “at the pit”.

 

The shorts of ‘paper gold’ at J.P. Morgan [the Fed in drag] are selling the daylights out of the paper market and simultaneously buying exclusive rights to producers’ future production so they can try to fudge their way through an unmitigated fraud and settle a big enough chunk of their bad bets to keep this ‘systemically ruinous’ precious metals ponzi-scheme alive...

[Pixel8r]

THE FEDERAL RESERVE is SELLING PAPER GOLD and BUYING PHYSICAL GOLD

 

[the good ole ‘American way’ – through proxies]

 

By Rob Kirby | 4/10/10

Amazing how certain articles coming out seem to move the market these days.

 

This is big news IMO, it proves what has been long suspected that the bullion banks that have been selling paper gold/silver will be the ones left holding the physical when the bubble pops.

 

Got physical gold and silver yet?

 

 

[d2thdr]

DER SPIEGEL reports that FT writes that JPMorgan has now re-opened/re-utilized their gold vault in NYC due to strongly increasing request for storage.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehm...,721235,00.html (in German)

 

Only 'Damn Fools' would trust JP Morgan for the storage of their PM.

[romans holiday]

Gold Rises to a Record on Japanese Rate Cut, Demand for Wealth Protection

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-05/g...ive-assets.html

Gold climbed to a record in London and New York after Japan cut its key interest rate and said it would step up asset purchases and as the dollar weakened, boosting demand for gold as a protection of wealth. Silver advanced to a 30-year high.

 

The Bank of Japan pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate at “virtually zero” after unexpectedly reducing borrowing costs for the first time since 2008 and expanding its balance sheet. The dollar slipped as much as 0.8 percent against the euro after yesterday falling to a six-month low. Bullion usually moves inversely to the greenback.

 

The Bank of Japan announcement “spurred buying because it’s more quantitative easing,” said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc in London. “The liquidity that’s going to be around is going to drive gold higher. There’s also some dollar weakness.”

 

Immediate-delivery bullion added as much as $13, or 1 percent, to $1,328.25 an ounce and traded at $1,325.85 at 11:51 a.m. in London. Gold for December delivery was 0.7 percent higher at $1,326.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York after reaching $1,329.60.

 

Bullion rose to a record $1,325.75 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,313.50 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing.

 

Gold, up 21 percent this year, is heading for its 10th consecutive annual gain, the longest winning streak since at least 1920. Bullion has outperformed global equities, Treasuries and most industrial metals, prompting record investment in gold- backed exchange-traded products. The metal rallied as central banks and governments maintained low borrowing costs and spent trillions of dollars to stimulate economies.

 

Japan Cuts

 

The Fed has left its benchmark interest-rate target at a record low and pledged to take more steps to spur growth if necessary. Japan’s central bank today cut the overnight call rate target to a range of 0 percent to 0.1 percent, from 0.1 percent, and set up a 5 trillion yen ($60 billion) fund to buy government bonds and other assets.

 

“Today’s decision by the Bank of Japan confirms that there’s still concern about the economic recovery,” said Hwang Il Doo, a senior trader at Korea Exchange Bank Futures Co. in Seoul. “Such concerns will continue propping up gold.”

 

Gold may reach $1,500 by the end of the year and $2,500 an ounce “in a year or so,” Peter Hambro, chairman of Petropavlovsk Plc, Russia’s third-largest producer of the metal, said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” Prices may climb to $2,000 within the next 10 years, Rogers Holdings Chairman Jim Rogers said yesterday in a CNBC interview. Rogers said he owns gold and silver and is “pessimistic” on the future value of the dollar.

 

 

[Pixel8r]

I hear towels being thrown.

[warpig]

Good post and I especially like this line, it echoes my sentiments exactly.

 

I personally wouldn't rely on past perfomance to gauge future movements.

[warpig]

Yes thanks!

 

Amazing how certain articles coming out seem to move the market these days.

 

This is big news IMO, it proves what has been long suspected that the bullion banks that have been selling paper gold/silver will be the ones left holding the physical when the bubble pops.

 

Got physical gold and silver yet?

[romans holiday]

So the price [in dollars] has been averaging around a 20% increase year on year.

 

After stirring then waking, gold lurched all over the place for the first few years. The volatility may now be dying down a bit as gold finds its feet as a currency. If it continues to play out this way, the trend up may become even more stable and come to track more closely the 20% averaged line of projection. That would amount to near a 2% increase month on month. I could live with that lack of excitement.

 

 

[warpig]

Super-rich buy gold by the ton

 

The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar by the ton.

 

The world's wealthiest people have responded to economic worries by buying gold by the bar - and sometimes by the ton - and by moving assets out of the financial system, bankers catering to the very rich told Reuters, the news agency.

 

Fears of a double-dip downturn have boosted the appetite for physical bullion as well as for mining company shares and exchange-traded funds, UBS executive Josef Stadler told the Reuters Global Private Banking Summit.

 

"They don't only buy ETFs or futures; they buy physical gold," said Stadler, who runs the Swiss bank's services for clients with assets of at least $50 million to invest.

 

"We had a clear example of a couple buying over a ton of gold ... and carrying it to another place," Stadler said. At today's prices, that shipment would be worth about $42 million.

 

 

"I see gold as an insurance," Van Anantha-Nageswaran told Reuters. "I recommend 10 percent as minimum in portfolios and anything more than that to be used for trading purposes, to respond to short-term over-bought or over-sold signals."

[warpig]

The mania phase will see an end to that! 

 

So the price [in dollars] has been averaging around a 20% increase year on year.

 

After stirring then waking, gold lurched all over the place for the first few years. The volatility may now be dying down a bit as gold finds its feet as a currency. If it continues to play out this way, the trend up may become even more stable and follow the 20% averaged line of projection. That would amount to near a 2% increase month on month.

[Pluto]

Take that banksters and gold shorties...

 

[Pixel8r]

So the price [in dollars] has been averaging around a 20% increase year on year.

 

After stirring then waking, gold lurched all over the place for the first few years. The volatility may now be dying down a bit as gold finds its feet as a currency. If it continues to play out this way, the trend up may become even more stable and come to track the 20% averaged line of projection. That would amount to near a 2% increase month on month. I could live with that lack of excitement.

The rate of increase is clearly accelerating. I know gold has been steadily increasing but you should expect the rate of increase to steepen as we go further into this.

 

 

 

[warpig]

Amusing price in USD, are the cartel speaking to us in `gamers speak`..? 1337.22

[G0ldfinger]

$1,337.

 

Dollar event approaching?

 

See you up there.

 

[G0ldfinger]

Only 'Damn Fools' would trust JP Morgan for the storage of their PM.

Agreed.

[drbubb]

$1,337.

 

Dollar event approaching?

 

See you up there.

 

Rocket are associated with ... TURNS?

 

Here's Yelnick;

 

Monday, October 04, 2010

 

A Chartfest at the Turn

 

We are right at the Oct5 turn window. As the market continues longer in its trading range, the odds of a top increase. We are closing on the point where the rise from the beginning of September to now becomes slower than the rise off the July 2 bottom. Let me run through a series of charts with a discussion of whether we are in a topping period which is about to end.

 

/more: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/10...t-the-turn.html

 

[sid]

I feel we are reaching that tipping point!

 

next stop $1500!

[drbubb]

I feel we are reaching that tipping point!

 

next stop $1500!

Let's get through this week before betting heavily on that

I ma lighten up on more gold & gold shares tomorrow

 

BTW, GDXJ is underperforming

[vinny]

If I ever feel like I should have bought more gold - we get a turn to the downside - now is one of those times perhaps?

 

It would indeed take a GF's "Dollar event" for me to feel that this rise is for real.

 

Becareful what you wish for (not aimed at you GF).