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drbubb

Oil to $160 !!, Gold to ... where?

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LISTEN to CW Radio: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

 

I will comment more after listening

 

= =

 

...meantime, on Gold:

 

If Neowave is right, and the bull market in Gold is over...

 

After a rally to Gold-$950/60 (or so), the next drop could be brutal,

not the gentle C-wave affair that I am expecting (or at least hoping for)

 

Personally, I would be surprised to see that, because we did not the obvious parabolic move

that generally preceeds a major top, and I dont really think that "th public" is much into Gold yet

 

GLD chart (x10 + $10 for Gold price) ... update

 

bigzc6.gif

 

= =

 

US Oil (USO)- Crude Oil etf ... update : weekly

bigci0.gif

 

Treasuries, Long Term (TLT)- T-Bond etf ... update

bigzs0.gif

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charts added now, in the Header

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Another GOLD chart, thnx to GF

 

001px0.png

 

001wi4.png

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LISTEN to CW Radio: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

 

I will comment more after listening

 

I have had a listen to this. As far as I can tell he is saying that weather problems in Canada have caused a temporary decline in oil production. Also, several refineries have shut down their operations and there are shortages of oil in Australia. Also, there has been long term contracts for oil that have been made by the Chinese. All this put together has resulted in a global shortage of oil that will see the price spike to at least $160 per barrel in the near future. This will also be the begining of the process in which 'Peak Oil' starts to be recognised as a 'world problem'.

 

Have I got this right or am I completely 'barking up the wrong tree'?

 

If I have understood him correctly, the Iraqi pipe blast will help to compound the situation.

 

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7316138.stm

 

 

 

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I have had a listen to this. As far as I can tell he is saying that weather problems in Canada have caused a temporary decline in oil production. Also, several refineries have shut down their operations and there are shortages of oil in Australia. Also, there has been long term contracts for oil that have been made by the Chinese. All this put together has resulted in a global shortage of oil that will see the price spike to at least $160 per barrel in the near future. This will also be the begining of the process in which 'Peak Oil' starts to be recognised as a 'world problem'.

 

Have I got this right or am I completely 'barking up the wrong tree'?

That's about it.

 

If I remember right, he also said that he thought the refiners were fibbing in saying that the problems were due solely to mechanical problems. George thinks that it's a lack of crude oil which is their problem.

 

Time will tell, I suppose.

 

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That's about it.

 

If I remember right, he also said that he thought the refiners were fibbing in saying that the problems were due solely to mechanical problems. George thinks that it's a lack of crude oil which is their problem.

 

Time will tell, I suppose.

 

He also said that some of the large cap US oil companies were in serious difficulties.

 

I wonder where the big European large cap oil companies stand in all this such as Shell, Total and BP? They currently look undervalued. Do they have sufficient oil in the ground to benefit from the rising prices or will these shortages hit them as well?

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Another GOLD chart, thnx to GF

Interesting charts, DrBubb. These channels give us a clue about what the average sustainable growth rate of gold might be.

 

I'll update the charts again next week, after my return to the UK. I could possibly automise the program such that it includes your channels when I run it.

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He also said that some of the large cap US oil companies were in serious difficulties.

...

In what sense? Being not able to produce enough, I suppose?

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Interesting charts, DrBubb. These channels give us a clue about what the average sustainable growth rate of gold might be.

 

I'll update the charts again next week, after my return to the UK. I could possibly automise the program such that it includes your channels when I run it.

 

That would be great!

 

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In what sense? Being not able to produce enough, I suppose?

 

The problems that Zapata George (ZP) has found relates to the reports that the oil companies are issuing. ZP reads the annual reports of the oil companies and is able to 'read between the lines'. He has noticed that these Large cap north American Oil Companies' are reporting 'potential barrels' of oil on the company reports instead of 'actual barrels'. This makes him think that they may be teetering on the edge of a situation in which they will not be able to supply the oil to their customers.

 

Has anyone had their car converted for LPG yet?

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Holy cow!

 

Gold down to $908 thismorning ...... glad i didnt put a spread bet on.

 

 

THIS IS THE RETEST, the "C" wave I have been waiting for.

And the volume remains LOW (enough).

This could be a very bullish set-up we are seeing now- let's see how things progress in NY trading

 

We could see a intraday "V" bottom to lower levels in NY trading, if the volume is light enough,

and there's an opening gap down, it could afford a great buying opportunity.

 

(I also noticed that CDNX held reasonable well over the past few days.)

 

Let's stay aware of the other side:

If the market pushes through the support, to a significantly low, this chart shows the next support level:

 

GLD ... Intraday-10days

aa1vu6.gif

 

There's a gap, and "once tread path" down there near Gold-$850, which would be the next target.

 

How to play?:

See how the opening looks, and if the volume on a gap down is not too great, do a little buying,

But wait to see heavier volume on the rising side of the "V" before buying heavily.

Missing a few dollars of the move will be better than getting hit with a $50 loss

 

== ==

 

Money Supply & Dollar note:

John Williams on the Korelin Report podcast is talking about some huge increases in Money Supply (+xx%).

He thinks the bad news on inflation is far from over. A panic in the bond market will come when foreigners

move to dump the dollar

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FITTING THE PIECES TOGETHER...

 

Please listen to this podcast from March 22nd:

Weekend Special, 03.22.08

Greg McCoach continues his discussion from the weekly show about this past week's strange market behaviour.

 

He talks about the huge price drop in Gold on Tuesday and Wednesday (March 18th - 19th)

aa2ht3.gif

 

...and how it may have been caused by unwinding of a huge LONG GOLD position held by Bear Stearns.

 

Was Bear being "punished" for going against a Fed & JP Morgan-led banking cartel??

 

(BTW: JP Morgan Chase is the largest shareholder in the Fed.)

 

== ==

 

Did hedge funds push and profit from Bear Stearns's collapse?

Posted Mar 31st 2008 1:33PM by Peter Cohan

Filed under: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bear Stearns Cos (BSC)

 

A fantastic Barron's [subscription required] interview with Blackrock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) CEO Laurence Fink suggests that the collapse of The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) was aided by hedge funds. But my interview with an industry insider suggests that some hedge funds not only created the collapse, but profited from it through short selling.

 

Here's an excerpt from the Fink interview:

 

"The fall of Bear Stearns was a liquidity crisis. It has been rumored that there were hedge funds promoting hostile and negative comments, which accelerated the fear of doing business with Bear Stearns. I believe it would be prudent if the SEC investigated these rumors. Bear Stearns was a very fine institution destroyed by the profiting of a few. In a normalized market, Bear Stearns would have never fallen like this. The rating agencies caused the ultimate fall of Bear Stearns."

 

This is consistent with what I heard from a Wall Street insider who attended a March 14 speech by President Bush at the Economic Club of New York -- three days before the JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) deal to buy Bear at $2 a share. This insider sat at a table next to a New York hedge fund manager and asked him whether he was surprised by the collapse of Bear Stearns. What the hedge fund manager said came as a shock to me: "Bear's collapse didn't surprise me. We've been short Bear for five days. All the hedge funds have been pulling their prime brokerage business from Bear."

 

Prime Brokerage is the business of lending money to and processing the trades of hedge funds. And this hedge fund could have been among the ones that was pulling its business away from Bear. If it shorted Bear on March 10th at $70 a share, that hedge fund manager must have savored the profit from his short position on the 14th when Bear dropped from $60 to $30.

 

And while this Wall Street insider's story does not constitute an open and shut case that hedge funds pushed and profited from Bear's collapse, it certainly suggests that it would a useful area for regulators to investigate. After all, $29 billion worth of taxpayer's money was lent to make the JPMorgan deal go through.

 

And if the hedge funds had a role in Bear's collapse, they should use their short profits to pay their share of that bailout.

 

/see: http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/03/31/d...arnss-collapse/

 

(all it would take, is a few rumors being spread by the other banks- like JPM - and the hedgies

would have run scared from Bear, pulling their business away, while shorting the stock.)

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Has Zapta George got this one wrong or is it to early to say yet? Oil has fallen by $5 a barrel so far this week.

 

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7324356.stm

 

Zippie must be feeling a bit smaller today

 

Gold's price is smaller too. And under the prior lows on reasonably heavy volume

bigfc1.gif

 

I would have liked to see a smaller drop on less volume. But there it is!

Tuesday's low may well get retested on Wednesday. If volume is light, then I could see gold back

up to refill the gap down it has left

 

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Does anyone know at which point solar power becomes economical to use on a mass scale? IE at which oil price would solar become competitive. As thats how we can see the damage peak oil could create in the short term. But eventually I expect solar to become more efficient in conjunction with safer energy storage devices than hydrogen in the future making it a viable long term solution. So even though energy might be more expensive for a couple of decades the price could normalise back to current levels after that which wouldn't be too bad.

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Does anyone know at which point solar power becomes economical to use on a mass scale? IE at which oil price would solar become competitive. As thats how we can see the damage peak oil could create in the short term. But eventually I expect solar to become more efficient in conjunction with safer energy storage devices than hydrogen in the future making it a viable long term solution. So even though energy might be more expensive for a couple of decades the price could normalise back to current levels after that which wouldn't be too bad.

 

There are a lot of alternative energy sources. However, they will not be able to be introduced overnight. I think that we are looking for a twenty years transition period to significantly start to provide an alternative.

 

A while back, I listened to a talk in which someone was saying that it might even be possible to use solar power for road traffic. On Motorways, there would be solar panels along the central reservation with energy pickup points every few yards. Cars would be fitted with equipment that could recharge there batteries from the pick up points. There are even developments of solar coatings that can be applied like paint in order to pick up power from the suns' rays. However, all of this is in the distant future. It's likely that there will be a very uncomfortable period of time in which oil will be declining faster than alternative sources of energy can fill the gap.

 

LPG is one of my favorite alternatives.

 

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/faq/faq.htm?id=8

 

Nuclear power for the National grid and diesel refined from coal are also strong possibilities.

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Truckers to Stage Fuel Strike to Protest Rising Fuel Costs

http://www.democracynow.org/2008/4/1/headlines#4

 

In other economic news, independent truckers plan to stage a fuel strike today to protest the soaring price of diesel, which now costs almost $4 a gallon, a fifty-cent increase in the past month. It is unclear how many truckers will pull their semis off the highway, but some truckers say they will strike for several days. In Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, scores of truckers took to the highways and streets around the State Capitol on Monday and blasted their horns in protest.

 

more links

 

http://business.maktoob.com/News-200704231...fuel_costs.aspx

 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/080401/busi...ad_truck_strike

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080401/bs_af...ke_080401183958

 

I'm not sure about the scale of this fuel strike but if this US fuel strike is anything like the UK fuel protests then it could have a huge impact. If the UK were to attempt a similar fuel protest to the one in 2000 they would now find that they are in breach of the terrorism act.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_fuel_protest

 

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There are a lot of alternative energy sources. However, they will not be able to be introduced overnight. I think that we are looking for a twenty years transition period to significantly start to provide an alternative.

 

A while back, I listened to a talk in which someone was saying that it might even be possible to use solar power for road traffic. On Motorways, there would be solar panels along the central reservation with energy pickup points every few yards. Cars would be fitted with equipment that could recharge there batteries from the pick up points. There are even developments of solar coatings that can be applied like paint in order to pick up power from the suns' rays. However, all of this is in the distant future. It's likely that there will be a very uncomfortable period of time in which oil will be declining faster than alternative sources of energy can fill the gap.

 

That is madness for private cars,

But there might be some potential for rail

 

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That is madness for private cars,

But there might be some potential for rail

 

It all seems a bit far fetched to me. What will they do at night or in winter when there is only 8 to 9 hours of daylight? LPG, on the other hand, seems to be a very good way forward. I am surprised that the government is not pushing it more.

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It all seems a bit far fetched to me. What will they do at night or in winter when there is only 8 to 9 hours of daylight? LPG, on the other hand, seems to be a very good way forward. I am surprised that the government is not pushing it more.

 

 

I converted to LPG last year. Well worth the money it used to cost me £50 for a full tank of pertol (50 litres). My LPG tank is 70 litres and cost about £30 here in Aberdeen. I went to Leeds last March and got it for 35p/litre (£24.50 for a fiull tank).

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I converted to LPG last year. Well worth the money it used to cost me £50 for a full tank of pertol (50 litres). My LPG tank is 70 litres and cost about £30 here in Aberdeen. I went to Leeds last March and got it for 35p/litre (£24.50 for a fiull tank).

I haven't converted yet. I have had a lot of expenses recently. However, it is definitely on my shopping list. Not only is it cheaper, it would also be worth having in case there are fuel shortages or fuel protests again.

 

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Oil up nearly $3 a barrel today. Is there anybody out there who thinks that George's prediction might pa out over the next few weeks?

 

 

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Oil up nearly $3 a barrel today. Is there anybody out there who thinks that George's prediction might pa out over the next few weeks?

I am crazy enough to think: why not?

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Oil up nearly $3 a barrel today. Is there anybody out there who thinks that George's prediction might pa out over the next few weeks?

 

Shortages of oil will come they have to peak oil means they must.

 

Oil will then go ballisitic - will gold follow?

 

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