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$200, $400 Oil by end of 2009, and 2010-12, respectively


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Or are we in breakout territory?

 

yes, but technically it is inside-month, because december enloses those 3 months (jan,feb,mar) in range from 32 to 55, this allows oil to make spectacular runs with no monthly trend change, and fundamentals (deflation,rising dollar) are against oil, so, i think you can still buy it cheaper for long term.

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Matt Simmons says lack of investment may cause a big rise in price within months.

The global financial crisis and collapse in the oil market have stalled vital investment in oil exploration and production and are likely soon to lead to a sharp spike in prices, an energy consultant and financier says.

 

Matt Simmons, founder of Houston-based investment bank Simmons & Co, argues the underlying rate of decline of the world's ageing oilfields is as much as 20 percent a year and only high levels of investment can reduce that to single digits.

 

With credit tight and oil prices almost $100 a barrel below their highs last year, oil companies are unable to sustain previous levels of spending and the result is falling production, he said in an interview on Thursday.

 

"We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.

 

"These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike," he said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29891917

 

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Saudia Arabia: $200 Oil In 2 Years

By Reuters

MAY 25, 2009: 10:34 AM ET

 

Saudi Arabia warned oil prices could spike to beyond the near $150 record high of 2008 within two to three years, as energy leaders on Monday decried a blow to investment in expanding capacity due to the financial crisis.

 

Energy ministers and officials at the Group of Eight energy summit in Rome are meeting as oil prices hover at a six-month high of over $60 a barrel, but below the $75 a barrel level producers say is needed to spur investment in new production.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/silico...ars_2009_5.html

 

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Buy Gold SOON, but not yet IMHO.

 

Wait until the shadow of that Huge drop in Oil is out of the way..

By the fall, UK and US year-on-year inflation should start to soar

 

This is interesting.

 

So you think oil will continue to above $100 by the Autumn

 

I was expecting a correction from this intermediate high of $72ish, but it is not happening.

 

All the indicators are that supply is too great to sustain these prices and as the dollar gets stronger over the next few weeks, money will leave oil.

 

Do you think there will be a correction of oil down to early $50s.

 

Generally, this site has been quiet about oil in the last few months. It doesn't appear that many invested in the rally from 40 to 70 which is a huge gain. We have been diverted into playing around with EMs and taken our eye of the ball. It would be good to get this site communicating on oil again.

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Sold off some SOIL (Short crude OIL) this morning (which was bought earlier in week) on back of strenghtening dollar and in case $66.25 held.

 

Holding remaining SOIL and following closely.

 

Now $65.63.

 

Trending towards $60.10 trend line support?

 

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Technical

Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Jul 03 09 04:46 ET

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil continues to press 66.25 support today and at this point, further fall is still in favor as long as 69.79 minor resistance holds. As noted before, sustained break of 66.25 will will be an important signal of double top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38) and will indicate that Crude oil has already topped out. In such case, short term outlook will be turned bearish and we'd anticipate at least a test trend line support (now at 60.10). On the upside, above 69.79 will turn intraday outlook neutral and suggest that price actions from 73.23 are probably sideway consolidation rather then reversal.

In the bigger picture, rise from 33.20 is still in progress and there is no confirmation that it's completed yet. Though, note that daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides a signal that such up trend is near to the end. Hence, we'd continue to monitor loss of up side momentum as crude oil approaches 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. On the downside, break of 66.25 support will be an important indication that crude oil has topped out and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.

 

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technica...k-200907037477/

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Matt Simmons says lack of investment may cause a big rise in price within months.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29891917

 

The largest oil refiner in the U.S., Valero Energy, today said it would shut down a refinery in Delaware City, Del. as fuel demand has slumped and margins have slimmed in the oil refining sector......

 

"If there's ever been a time to mothball a refinery, it's probably now...I wouldn't be surprised to see additional closures," said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover in a recent Reuters report.

 

Despite the rash of closures, the Energy Department reports that refineries are operating at below 80% capacity in recent weeks and was under 85% for much of the year.

 

It's a dramatic swing from calls only two years ago when market watchers blamed high gasoline prices on a lack of refining capacity.

 

 

http://www.purchasing.com/article/390075-V...lack_demand.php

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