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$200, $400 Oil by end of 2009, and 2010-12, respectively


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this guy has been saying that too. And matt simmons of course. I'd doubt if the Saudi's would come out and admit that though.

 

i read comments on some forum that bunkers with oil are fully loaded and waiting in ports, that there is no need for so many oil right now. complete mess, you don't know whom to believe. i will be believing charts only

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To me it is simple - there are few places to invest right now; two of the leaders being gold and oil. This has left us with a conundrum resulting in a decoupling between the two. Money is moving between them and right now gold is moving higher. The question is when is the next interim peak in gold that will allow us a switch to oil? Is it $1200?

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i just read good news:

 

this news didn't last much. now going to 82.

oil technically is deeply oversold, i think oil will be rallying with the bottom in the stock market, because so much selloff in the stocks, creates a lot of demand for the dollar (or cash), and thats why commodities cant rally yet

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BE CAREFUL

 

I have been making some positive noises about OIH (but no buying yet), and have targetted $80-90 as an area for a possible

low in Oil. That may still prove right, but I sugggest people tred carefully, as I will myself.

 

I had an interesting PM from someone within the industry, that made these points:

 

+ projects beginning to be pulled.

+ oil Service companies pushed up ratse massively over the last 3 years,

but economics for deepwater megaprojects are stretched to the limit

+ in a lower oil price environment, rates will have to fall back alot to make

offshore projects viable, especially when libor rates are so high

 

Result; there will be a huge squeeze on earnings in the offshore sector.

Onshore may be brighter, however.

 

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this news didn't last much. now going to 82.

oil technically is deeply oversold, i think oil will be rallying with the bottom in the stock market, because so much selloff in the stocks, creates a lot of demand for the dollar (or cash), and thats why commodities cant rally yet

 

I see a possible bottom at 78 (meeting downtrend line), on the back of potentially a precipitous fall. I also think the wave A bottom is fairly close.

 

Coinciding with a huge drop in the main stock indices for their interim bottom?

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i am about to give up that crude will ever bottom some day

 

edit:

this means, it must be close to the bottom

 

Don't give up i read your predictions all the time out of interest, check the price and come back to see what your next one is :lol:

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Don't give up i read your predictions all the time out of interest, check the price and come back to see what your next one is :lol:

thanks! no i won't, that's the oportunity of a lifetime, to buy oil. what i think is happening, is a huge deleveraging. all those people who bought oil from 55, are panic-selling it. if this is correct, then it will happend like with gold: no double bottom, only a v-shaped bottom. so, it must end selling above 55, lets watch it...

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i am about to give up that crude will ever bottom some day

 

edit:

this means, it must be close to the bottom

 

LOL, keep up the commentary Ker I've made a lot using it as a contrary indicator, in fact I was thinking you are bit like the silver sammy of oil. :D

 

Not true I'm only joking, I also enjoy your analysis.

 

I believe TA is a reflection of behaviour but does it not rely on rational behaviour too much rather than the "sod it just sell it if it raises cash" we are seeing now?

 

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I know you guys are tired of my failed bottom calls on oil, but I think this is very close to it, the only condition left, is a close higher than the opening:

oil1011.png

 

I note that the current level: $72-73, is almost exactly 50% of the peak, so it is an interesting support level.

And now that we are here, I like it better than my old $80-110 imprecise forecast

 

But even if we get a good rally here, and think lows could/should be retested later (in 2009?)

 

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Zapata George talking about manipulation of mainstream media channels:

 

Well folks, we’re going to take care of this problem in our own way. Starting as soon as next week, we will be implementing Radio Zapata George, and we will bring you a weekly news show that will talk about everything that’s happening in the economy and especially as it relates to energy. We will answer your questions and hopefully help you get to the truth about everything that’s going on. You know from me what you’ll get… “No Bull!”
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