mattyboy Posted October 23, 2008 Report Share Posted October 23, 2008 Maybe it was a bubble after all. and this? pretty similar shape.. was everything in a bubble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted October 23, 2008 Report Share Posted October 23, 2008 this guy has been saying that too. And matt simmons of course. I'd doubt if the Saudi's would come out and admit that though. Quizzie that is some website thanks for posting it - it deserves a bit more than a passing mention http://satelliteoerthedesert.blogspot.com/ see also this site: http://picojoule.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted October 23, 2008 Report Share Posted October 23, 2008 Does anyone here have any thoughts on BP? Its starting to look very attractive from a dividend paying point of view. The TNK dispute seems to have reached a OK ish conclusion. I know it is a massive elephant and its business is unlikely to gallop. However some of its fundamentals are looking very good. And it looks a safe place to park cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allyjcambo Posted October 23, 2008 Report Share Posted October 23, 2008 Maybe it was a bubble after all. Cuthbert, as you said last week on that Iranian tv show, oil (and other commodities) have tended to move in the opposite direction to the USD. I think it is helpful to consider which of these trades has the stronger fundamentals and the answer to that, at least to my mind, is a no-brainer. Anti-dollar commodities will win the day - although I have no idea how long it will take for the battle to be won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walktothewater Posted October 23, 2008 Report Share Posted October 23, 2008 Does anyone here have any thoughts on BP? Its starting to look very attractive from a dividend paying point of view. The TNK dispute seems to have reached a OK ish conclusion. I know it is a massive elephant and its business is unlikely to gallop. However some of its fundamentals are looking very good. And it looks a safe place to park cash? Note sure about BP... but... Perhaps this is simplistic but the 200ma of gold/$wtic is about 8.5 In July it was 900/147=6.1 Now its, 725/68=10.7 SO oil is expensive relative to gold at the moment. So gold must fall and oil must rise to get back to the 200day average?? Or gold falls 20% to $578oz while oil stays here, or oil rises 25% to $85/bbl while gold stays here… Feel free to correct my numbers or logic here.. back of beer mat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 Oil hit A, the temporary bottom, now we are in the (big) B up, target 80 or higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 Does anyone here have any thoughts on BP? Its starting to look very attractive from a dividend paying point of view. The TNK dispute seems to have reached a OK ish conclusion. I know it is a massive elephant and its business is unlikely to gallop. However some of its fundamentals are looking very good. And it looks a safe place to park cash? Heard it has a great balance sheet also. I hope to eventually throw some wages into some dividend paying stocks while they remain low. Thinking of an oil company such as BP and also the Aussie mining companies Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. I'm persuaded that the commodity bull will kick in again, though we may have to wait a year, with a resurgent Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 Market Watch Link IEA draft said to show big drop in oil field output A draft report of the International Energy Agency's annual report said output from the world's oil fields is declining faster than previously thought, the Financial Times reported Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 Market Watch Link Yes saw this on the FT online as well - think it might be on their front page. Looks like Matt Symmonds is right and now the establishment are coming out in agreement. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e5e78778-a53f-11...0077b07658.html + Other interesting bits on website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 i think we are in the early stage of wave 3 , so break below 66 is less likely, more likely to be a bit longer trading above 66 than break down, however, anything can happen, and if breaks, we should be testing 62 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 29, 2008 Report Share Posted October 29, 2008 The dollar could go a bit lower, based on this EUR/USD chart, there is enough room to hit 72 in oil without testing lower band again, and complete the wave 1 (no, we are not yet in wave 3, too fast): http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke.../eurusd1029.png So, this is my lastest update: Top: thursday, 30 Oct Bottom confirmation: 4 Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 30, 2008 Report Share Posted October 30, 2008 definitely oil is a beast, so handle it with care: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG Posted October 31, 2008 Report Share Posted October 31, 2008 definitely oil is a beast, so handle it with care: God loves a tryer..... bless you my son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted October 31, 2008 Report Share Posted October 31, 2008 you know what, you only have my permission to laugh, if you post your own chart with your oil prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted November 1, 2008 Report Share Posted November 1, 2008 you know what, you only have my permission to laugh, if you post your own chart with your oil prediction Got to say I admire your balls/belief! Which I think is pretty good, may I say EDIT: Your charting, rather than you balls I should probably add Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted November 1, 2008 Report Share Posted November 1, 2008 you know what, you only have my permission to laugh, if you post your own chart with your oil prediction I hope you're right. I bought some oil last week EDIT: Based on my own research, not your chart EDIT2: My research = *** Roll out of bed *** Notice oil is cheaper than it was a few weeks ago *** Buy oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 2, 2008 Report Share Posted November 2, 2008 My research = *** Roll out of bed *** Notice oil is cheaper than it was a few weeks ago *** Buy oil lol, well, just be careful, because it may go to 40 in spring: http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke...102-monthly.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 4, 2008 Report Share Posted November 4, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG Posted November 5, 2008 Report Share Posted November 5, 2008 you know what, you only have my permission to laugh, if you post your own chart with your oil prediction Fair enough..... I'm too much of a coward for that, yours would put mine to shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted November 5, 2008 Report Share Posted November 5, 2008 The dollar could go a bit lower, based on this EUR/USD chart, there is enough room to hit 72 in oil without testing lower band again, and complete the wave 1 (no, we are not yet in wave 3, too fast): http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq30/ke.../eurusd1029.png So, this is my lastest update: Top: thursday, 30 Oct Bottom confirmation: 4 Nov You're getting closer now, like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 5, 2008 Report Share Posted November 5, 2008 You're getting closer now, like it. nope, i think all this upside move is a correction (looks like abcde type) we broke below the weekly downtrend, so we are back in the downtrend and now headed to test if we go to 50 or not. I guess confirmation on the weekly is very important for any strong upside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 5, 2008 Report Share Posted November 5, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 6, 2008 Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kernull Posted November 6, 2008 Report Share Posted November 6, 2008 more patterns: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted November 7, 2008 Report Share Posted November 7, 2008 I hope you're right. I bought some oil last week EDIT: Based on my own research, not your chart EDIT2: My research = *** Roll out of bed *** Notice oil is cheaper than it was a few weeks ago *** Buy oil On the note, you may be interested in this update in the Oilvoice newsletter if you have not already seen it: *********************************** UK Facing Oil Supply Crisis Within 5-Years Thursday, October 30, 2008 The biggest threat facing the U.K. is the declining levels of oil production which could begin to hit Britain within the coming 5 years, according to a report by an independent industry group. The warning of an impending energy crisis has been made by the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, an alliance of eight British engineering, utlity and transport companies drawn from across the economy. Worries over current falling demand levels of oil will quite simply pale in comparison to the looming collapse in the supply of oil. While producing countries are currently considering cutting current output levels to reverse the trend in the falling price of a barrel of oil; just a few short years ahead these very same producers will be finding themselves forced to cut production levels thanks to diminished reserves. Jeremy Leggett, Chairman of Peak Oil Group and the Executive Chairman of the alternative energy company Solarcentury, said that there was still time for the Government to act to protect the country - in the face of such a dooming circumstances - by reducing the economy's dependence on the oil. Mr. Leggett, said on BBC Radio 4’s ‘Today’ programme: “What we are arguing is that the oil industry and oil institutions have been irrationally exuberant about their ability to meet demand going forward, in much the same way that the financial institutions have been irrationally exuberant about their ability to manage complex financial instruments. “When they fail to meet demand, many countries will experience this as an energy crisis. Some will experience it as an energy famine, as producers start to withhold exports,” he added. However Mr. Legett did offer a glimmer of hope to those already prepared to start drilling in their own back gardens. “This crisis is being anticipated; let's do something about it, because we can.” Legett’s rallying cry is for governments to recognise the coming changes, as there is still time for economies to be shaped around alternatives to oil. Earlier this month Prime Minister Gordon Brown told MPs that Britain was trying to increase North Sea oil especially in marginal oil fields and those which have already been explored but are not yet exhausted. At the same time Britain is committed to producing 15% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. As a consequence of a potential supply crisis, prices will be set to soar to unprecedented levels, belittling the $147 a barrel high recorded on July 11 of this year. More expensive oil will simultaneously push up the rate of inflation because of the combined rising cost of manufacturing and of delivering goods. The rising price of food is likely to bare the wheight of puiblic concern. But, perhaps the U.K. should look upon the contents of the report as an opportunity and not a sentencing. “The current global financial and economic crisis provides a real opportunity for the British Government to lead the world in renewable investment whilst oil and other commodity prices remain suppressed in the short term by weaker demand,” said Will Whitehorn, joint Chairman of the industry group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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