Carfree Living / Oil Demand Destruction: The Story of Our Time

[drbubb]

Oil Demand Destruction Is The Story Of The Next 5 Years,

Talk carfree. Invest carfree. Get carfree.

===========================

 

What do I need to do to get the point across?

I tried a thread with the above title on HPC

Original post:

FOR YEARS, I have been warning you about UK property

- NOW I am warning you about Cars and Suburban living !!

. . .

Talk carfree. Invest carfree. Get carfree.

Think creatively about the future. Get ahead of the change.

 

Britain has moved "into deficit", importing Oil.

And the 15% mismatch in the US is totally appalling, and totally inappropriate.

Those Americans who cannot see that, and act now to do sometime about it, deserve the firestorm

that is headed their way. The drum sound will get louder, until sleeping idiots hear it, and react.

 

Oil demand destruction in the USA is THE story of the next 5 -10 years

 

== == == == ==

 

But I kept getting reactions like the following one:

 

Oil prices would have to rise to over $1000pb to stop people from driving imo and I really don't see that happening although I could quite easilly see $300pb. I drive a 3.0 car that does about 20 mpg so even if oil prices trebbled at the pump if I buy a car that does 60 mpg it will not cost me any more than i'm paying at the moment. If prices rose even further than this I would cut back in other areas such as holidays nights out etc not get rid of my car the would be the last thing to go if I was cutting back.

 

Sorry to sound a bit rude, Flash, but you are Not Getting it!:

 

The oil price will rise to whatever it needs to go to massively change our driving habits and living arrangements.

 

That sentence above, is the key to it all. Take it onboard, and change you living arrangements NOW, while it is still

relatively cheap and easy to do so. The world and his wife will eventually move to the carfree existence, because they

will not be able to afford to live any other way.

[drbubb]

Carfree Living consists of several parts: (i am adding to this list, as more points become apparent.)

=========

+ Own no car, or one "heavily parked"

+ Avoiding the need to seek scarce fuel for car, in times of rationing

+ A rich and varied "street life" within walking distance (& maybe schools too)

+ Effective public transport to get to work, school (if needed), and "play" (cultural and leisure activities)

 

Compare to living in the "stranded suburbs" when the oil prices hits $250 on its way to $500, and so:

 

A CRITICAL POINT:

Don't even think about buying a home in the "stranded suburbs", unless the price differential is so big,

you can sustain a move in oil prices to $500 or higher, and you can also bear future rationing.

 

Some threads available on: CarFree Cities , Images of Public transport

[drbubb]

(more not-getting-it on HPC):

 

Talk of how we're all going to move within a couple of miles of work and cycle to and fro to is just another utopian fantasy.

Sure, maybe that's just about possible in Hong Kong, but if the rest of China is starving, the 'car-free elite' in HK are ******ed.

 

Oil is "knocking on the Door of $130" Today

 

Slowly but surely, things are changing... moving towards Carfree, but the pace of change will increase as oil rises and rises,

until everyone starts to get it, and insists that government helps, rather than hinders, the change.

 

1/ Cutting petrol taxes in America is madness. They should be increased, and tax revenues used to sudsidise public transport,

to reduce demand for gasoline

 

2/ Developers in the US should shift away from building more stranded suburbs, requiring cars. Instead they should build next

to public transport, the only place they are likely to find buyers at a profitable price

 

3/ Ridiculous ideas, like tax subsidies for Ethanol, should be stopped. That only puts up food prices, and encourages driving

at the expense of eating. If anything it should be the opposite way, driving should be taxed to subsidise eating (by the poor)

 

Leadership in America and Britain needs to change direction, or the troubles will mount

 

Modern society is built on cheap energy, and without cheap energy it will collapse; if we have cheap energy in some form then we will continue to drive cars, if we don't, then we'll all be fighting over scraps in the ruins.

 

EAT OR DRIVE?

I think we should all be able to eat. Instead of having many starve so some elite people can drive.

BTW, what makes you think the driving elite will be in Britain or the USA, I reckon the driving elite will

survive better in China.

[drbubb]

MORE...

 

Can you tell me who will be buying oil at 400$ a barrel. Or even 300$.

Only if wages go through the roof will people pay, then its a none issue. Oil at 200$ will drive us into a severe recession IMO, and people will stop buying crap. Oil demand will collapse at this point, doing severe damage - all caused by speculators/rampers. I see a major oil correction in only a few months.

 

Those that can afford it, and have no alternative:

 

+ The truly wealthy (in the Middle East, China, India, or wherever they may be)

+ Those that have a stronger currency, like the Yen or the Rmb, to spend (the dollay may lose 25-50% its value by then, the Pd. will be weak too.)

+ The government, for military purposes

+ Public transport firms, using government subsidies

+ The rest of us, in vastly smaller quanties, but only for essential travel.

 

Of course, there will be some severe oil price corrections along the way, but if we are truly at Peak Oil, as I believe, the price trend (in Dollar and Sterling currencies) will be inexorably upwards, until major demand destruction has occurred, and becomes permanent.

 

With current imports of around 400k bbls/day cost to trade balance @ $300/bbl would be £22.5bn pa. By (or before) 2015 the ongoing relentless decline in N Sea output would raise imports for BAU to 1m bbls/day; at $300/bbl cost to trade balance would be £56.2bn pa. In which area will UK exports correspondingly increase to offset such huge increases in the deficit (which btw is already at least £50bn pa)?

 

Those increases oil imports will get scaled back, as serious demand destruction takes hold.

How? By people taking my warning (and the market's price moves) seriously, and moving to radically curtail their use of oil.

 

If you have set up or joined a car pool yet, you'd better get thinking about it.

 

The key SHARING that is coming, is not in homeownership, it will be in sharing the cost of expensive transport.

Maybe we should set up a section on HPC or GEI to help them find partners, willing to share transport arrangements?

[drbubb]

PROGRESS !!

 

The problem with option 1) is that,

as George Monbiot stated, 'markets respons to money, not need'.

 

A City bond dealer (still with a job!) could continue to drive daily in London with a 'gas-guzzling' vehicle and yet essential workers in rural areas could not afford to travel to work. The former has lots of public transit alternatives; the latter do not. On this basis I would not be surprised to see Gov'ts taking the, doubtless very unpopular, step of introducing some sort of formal rationing by coupon or swipe card at some point in the future when prices become out of reach of many key workers - based on studies by Chris Skrebowski in his oilfield megaprojects review and other studies we could well reach this point by 2011/2012. In order to be effective the rationing would have to disregard vehicle types thus putting the onus on vehicle owners to switch to more economical vehicles or 'car pooling'.

 

The problem is that NEED must be managed, and scaled back.

Taxing the bejaysus out of gas-gulzers is part of the answer, but ALL oil consumption needs to get taxed more highly,

to get everyone to participate in the needed demand destruction, and fast. Else prices will keep shooting up, and begin to cause genuine hardship.

 

Option 2) is really a disorganised form of rationing and is partly self defeating due to time and fuel consumed waiting in lines.

 

Option 4) is all too possible if the oil consuming world fails to find a way to work together to reduce consumption and develop alternatives. Matt Simmons describes this scenario as 'bullies are first in line' whereas Richard Heinberg and others refer to it as 'resource wars'. As we've seen in Columbia, Iraq and Nigeria hyrocarbon extraction does not respond well to lack of security and disorder. Occupation of Gulf States by military force would doubtless prevent others from accessing the oil but it also generally denies supplies to the invading state as well.

 

Building a concensus amongst the majority of voters that managing Oil DEMAND DOWNWARDS is more important, that trying to secure

SUPPLY through military efforts, or tax cutting efforts is vital. And this will require real leadership, not the sort of lukewarm monkey efforts

coming out of the White House and No.10. Let's hope new leadership will emerge in time to get the job started.

 

My single biggest wish is that Gov'ts should start to show some understanding of this issue and begin preparing the public for what is going to be a big change in direction. Waiting until a combination of markets and Nature demonstate the obvious is all too likely to result in option 4). If a number of us on the forum can 'get it' why can't Governments (even today on R4 we heard that Dept of Transport was determined to press ahead with major aviation expansion despite warnings from another Gov't think tank)?

 

I couldnt agree more. In fact, I need your help in spreading the awareness, and the CarFree/Demand destruction efforts through HPC,

GEI, and wherever else we can.

 

I feel like we are at the root beginnings of an issue even more important tahn the Housing Bubble message

[Gebb]

I was thinking of making a separate post, but maybe this belongs here. I work in SW London and I have to say that over the past couple of months it has become eerily quiet on the roads going into work in the morning (I don't actually use the roads, just have to cross them from the tube station). I get in around 10am so miss the main rush hour, but even so it is a lot quieter than when I started working here a couple of years ago. We're just outside the extended congestion zone, so that may have had an effect, but I think that has been in operation a for quite a while now.

 

Has anyone else noticed a reduction in traffic in their city?

 

[malco]

DrB, I think you go much too far in suggesting most people won't be able to afford to drive any time soon. Even if constriction of supplies strangled back car use to what it was in 1970, that will still be a lot of traffic.

 

My guess is that few people will abandon their cars. There will be a long period of economic decline during which the vehicle stock will deteriorate, and road deaths will in consequence increase. I'd like to think there will be a switch to local EVs and more use of trains and buses for long journeys. It is unlikely that oil supply will decline sharply following the Peak.

 

The trouble is, and you have hinted at this, oil supply is a function of massive organisation. The global corporation was pioneered by the oil industry and oil supply is not possible without global cooperation. Should that global cooperation be jeopardised by political chaos, it throws a spanner in the works so far as any idea what future oil production could be. That is why the utter failure of the political elite to grow a spine and come clean on this issue is quite alarming.

[gwizzie]

I was thinking of making a separate post, but maybe this belongs here. I work in SW London and I have to say that over the past couple of months it has become eerily quiet on the roads going into work in the morning (I don't actually use the roads, just have to cross them from the tube station). I get in around 10am so miss the main rush hour, but even so it is a lot quieter than when I started working here a couple of years ago. We're just outside the extended congestion zone, so that may have had an effect, but I think that has been in operation a for quite a while now.

 

Has anyone else noticed a reduction in traffic in their city?

I deal with a lot of salesmen and they have increasingly staying in the office for 2 days a week on the phone rather than travelling about. Thank god

[drbubb]

DrB, I think you go much too far in suggesting most people won't be able to afford to drive any time soon.

Even if constriction of supplies strangled back car use to what it was in 1970, that will still be a lot of traffic.

...the utter failure of the political elite to grow a spine and come clean on this issue is quite alarming.

 

It's okay to be early- what does it cost?

It's like STR-ing in 2001- yes, early. But so what? The extracted equity performed better invested in mining shares,

and I no longer had to worry about missing the turn and getting stuck with an illiquid basemengt flat after the market turned.

 

What's the cost in being "early" to go CarFree. If you plan right, yoiur standard of living will improve, and your overall

cost base is likely to go down.

 

My fear is at some stage, the whole country will panic, and the cost of carfree-realted investments will skyrocket

[malco]

DrB, I may as well declare a competing interest and say that I have not owned a car since 1995 and I have not driven a car since 2002. I do not miss it - although I did greatly enjoy driving all over Europe in the early 1990s when I lived in Switzerland. The attitude of car journeys being "essential" is childish. It is toadied to by the mainstream parties because they are a bunch of hookers. A real government educates its people, as Louis Brandeis pointed out. While I have nothing against cars per se, I completely despise the thoughtless, wasteful way they are used. So, overall I am enjoying watching Peak Oil's clasp progressively strangle the Teletubbie confidence of the society around me.

[Panas]

What will this mean to people living in rural areas? There's been a massive migration to such areas in recent years from the cities in the UK. Do you guys think this trend will be reversed? Nowadays, you have to travel a few miles to get to the nearest Tesco or Morrissons if you are lucky. Most village shops have closed. Maybe that would be a good investment.......re-opening a village shop? If people decide to stay where there's plenty of public transport, then property prices will be decimated in the rural areas won't they? You really need a car if you live in the countryside!

[No6]

I was thinking of making a separate post, but maybe this belongs here. I work in SW London and I have to say that over the past couple of months it has become eerily quiet on the roads going into work in the morning (I don't actually use the roads, just have to cross them from the tube station). I get in around 10am so miss the main rush hour, but even so it is a lot quieter than when I started working here a couple of years ago. We're just outside the extended congestion zone, so that may have had an effect, but I think that has been in operation a for quite a while now.

 

Has anyone else noticed a reduction in traffic in their city?

 

Fuel prices 'keep cars off road'

 

High prices of petrol and diesel are making UK drivers think twice about travelling by car, a survey suggests.

 

The AA polled 17,500 members, and found 27% had cut back on other areas of spending, 16% had decided to travel less by car, and 21% had done both.

 

Petrol prices have risen sharply this year, although government figures have only shown car traffic falling 2%.

 

The Petrol Retailers Association says that average prices could go up as much as 5 pence a litre by the weekend.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7409166.stm

[drbubb]

...I have nothing against cars per se, I completely despise the thoughtless, wasteful way they are used.

So, overall I am enjoying watching Peak Oil's clasp progressively strangle the Teletubbie confidence of the society around me.

 

YES. The main thing is to eliminate the huge amount of current waste.

 

On HPC, some seem keen to exaggerate my message...

 

If we are to go back to post-apocalyptic Amish style technology free subsistence living as suggested here, where everyone lives in small villages supported by a local farm, heating from local trees etc then we'll need something like WWIII to reduce the population back to small enough numbers to support such a way of life.

 

? Where does "subsistence living" come from?

That is a remote possibility. But not my core assumption at all.

 

I think you will find I am speaking sense (as I have been about property), but that conventional thinking hasn't

yet caught up with the emerging reality of permanently higher oil prices. We need to rethink reality, and how

we live. But that doesnt mean using candles, and buying a plow. It may mean getting rid of the car, or driving

ALOT less. Want to keep your fuel cost flat, if petrol prices go up by 4 times? Drive 25% as much as previously,

or downsize your car to one that gets better gasoline mileage, and drive 30-50% as much as you did.

 

For many, it will be as simple as that over the next 2-3 years (?) timeframe. Eventually, oil may go up by 10x,

and then CarFree Living will be the only option for most.

 

What will this mean to people living in rural areas? There's been a massive migration to such areas in recent years from the cities in the UK.

Do you guys think this trend will be reversed? Nowadays, you have to travel a few miles to get to the nearest Tesco or Morrissons if you are lucky. Most village shops have closed. Maybe that would be a good investment.......re-opening a village shop? If people decide to stay where there's plenty of public transport, then property prices will be decimated in the rural areas won't they? You really need a car if you live in the countryside!

 

Good point. But someone who lives in the countryside can comment better than I.

Maybe if food prices rise enough, and long term transport soars, then farmers will be able to afford to bear the higher oil prices.

 

Those really hit by higher prices will be those who have no reason to be in the country, because they are not farming, they are just seeking a "rural lifestyle." If they rely on cars, and lots of driving, they are will be truly hit. And so will be those in the "stranded suburbs."

 

 

BTW, at some stage (and maybe soon), we will see a big $30-40 price pullback, and people will jump in and say, "Bubb- you were wrong!"

But then a few months later high prices will come back, and go maybe even higher, and the CarFree pressures will return. Will will get waves of this on the way to $250, and then $500, etc.

[Mabon]

Good point. But someone who lives in the countryside can comment better than I.

Maybe if food prices rise enough, and long term transport soars, then farmers will be able to afford to bear the higher oil prices.

 

Those really hit by higher prices will be those who have no reason to be in the country, because they are not farming, they are just seeking a "rural lifestyle." If they rely on cars, and lots of driving, they are will be truly hit. And so will be those in the "stranded suburbs."

 

I am currently living in 'the countryside'. I live in a village two miles or so outside a small town in south-west Wales. It's pretty rural. I don't drive a car, although I do have access to a small economical runabout if I want it (does 50-60 mpg).

 

In the last ten years or so a lot of foreigners (English, Belgiums, Dutch etc) have come her to pursue 'the rural idyll', the place has changed beyond recognition. House prices are an average of 10-15 times (or more) local average wages, many properties are empty the majority of the year as they are holiday homes, second homes etc.

 

We have a village shop, which is also a post office. I was talking to the postmaster the other day and he was saying that most of the post office services have been taken away from post offices. in fact his post office business could close, alarming a lot of folk who do their pensions, banking etc there.

 

He was wondering what to do and I mentioned to him that his shop was actually a boon, because the nearest supermarket is the one in town (about two miles or so by road) or 12 miles away for the bigger stores (Tesco, Asda etc).

 

I was saying to him to develop the shop because with the price of fuel, most people are gonna think twice before popping to tesco's 12 miles away for anything more than at least a few weeks shopping.

 

Although I don't think a lot of people get it yet, there have been a few village meetings with the local planning agencies to discuss the viability of small communities like this one.

 

I'm going to one next week, the last one I went to about a year ago discussed in detail transportation issues and the like.

 

We have a railway station here, but the train company doesn't promote ticket price information from here. It's pot luck as to knowing how much you'll have to pay to go anywhere and there are no ticket offices left at many smaller stations now, even in some of the bigger towns.

 

There are also bus services which are pretty decent, although expensive, as every Welsh person over 60 (or is it 65??) gets a free bus pass, which means that often you are the only paying punter on the bus (I know they paid for it with a lifetime of working...).

 

Anyway, what will happen to communities like this one??

 

What will happen to fairly remote areas such as west Wales with limited economic scope and an econmy that is a tourism/ farming/ power generation mix?

 

Instead of 'get out of cities move to the trees'. It may well be 'get into cities'....or build new ones where none previously existed.

 

[drbubb]

In the last ten years or so a lot of foreigners (English, Belgiums, Dutch etc) have come her to pursue 'the rural idyll', the place has changed beyond recognition. House prices are an average of 10-15 times (or more) local average wages, many properties are empty the majority of the year as they are holiday homes, second homes etc.

 

I reckon those prices will really get clobbered, back to maybe 3-5 times local incomes.

Wait until the banks work out what is coming. They will lend 50%, if you are lucky.

And those properties will wind up back in the hands of the locals, and maybe new farmers,

because they will only make sense if they can generate farmining income, and farming incomes may rise

 

We have a village shop, which is also a post office. I was talking to the postmaster the other day and he was saying that most of the post office services have been taken away from post offices. in fact his post office business could close, alarming a lot of folk who do their pensions, banking etc there.

 

He was wondering what to do and I mentioned to him that his shop was actually a boon, because the nearest supermarket is the one in town (about two miles or so by road) or 12 miles away for the bigger stores (Tesco, Asda etc).

 

I was saying to him to develop the shop because with the price of fuel, most people are gonna think twice before popping to tesco's 12 miles away for anything more than at least a few weeks shopping.

 

Probably that is a great idea. But there is a risk.

If too many of those expensive properties wind up in foreclosure, he may have too few customers

 

Although I don't think a lot of people get it yet, there have been a few village meetings with the local planning agencies to discuss the viability of small communities like this one.

 

I'm going to one next week, the last one I went to about a year ago discussed in detail transportation issues and the like.

 

We have a railway station here, but the train company doesn't promote ticket price information from here. It's pot luck as to knowing how much you'll have to pay to go anywhere and there are no ticket offices left at many smaller stations now, even in some of the bigger towns.

 

Interesting, Mabon. Let us know what happens.

You may want to start a store near the railway. But be sure to rent the property, not own it.

 

Anyway, what will happen to communities like this one??

...Instead of 'get out of cities move to the trees'. It may well be 'get into cities'

....or build new ones where none previously existed.

 

I reckon that there is a future for all those Inner City Luxury flats after all- provided they have good transport

and other services. People fleeing the stranded suburbs, and the hamstrung rural idyll, may find they prefer

them afterall. But don't start buying yet. Wait for the prices to stop sliding, and be sure that the trend that

I am anticipating, really begins to happen. Else you may find yu ae far too early.

 

By the way, you may seem some New Urban projects emerging in rural areas.

But if they do, they will grow up around rail connections. That's another trend to watch for.

[drbubb]

1-in-3 Flats in Central Leeds is empty - this thread says:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=77545

 

QUOTE

It says the "buy-to-let" boom has been a mixed blessing. It has created an oversupply of flats and has priced some first-time buyers out of the market, but at the same time been the main driver to keep rented property expanding.

 

It is highly critical of what it calls the "buy-to-leave" market - where landlords buy properties but then keep them empty for years in the hope of capital appreciation. One in three apartments in central Leeds are empty at the moment.

 

"Given the shortage of housing, the implications of buy-to-leave for the supply of rented housing and the government's aims to improve affordability through new developments are potentially serious in those areas where it is happening," the committee warned.

UNQUOTE

[Member100]

Avoiding the Stranded Suburbs, it is happening already

 

Don't even think about buying a home in the "stranded suburbs", unless the price differential is so big,

you can sustain a move in oil prices to $500 or higher, and you can also bear future rationing.

 

Hey. Doc, check out/

the WSJ: Why a Housing Bailout Won't Help, By Holman Jenkins, Jr.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

It talks about default "hotspots" and how they are concentrated in certain areas:

 

"We are working with borrowers to keep them in their homes, but alot of them don't really want to stay."

 

...a disproportionate share of foreclosures are concentrated in a single, nearly continuous blob stretching from Sacramento to the the environs of Las Vegas and Phoenix. Another hotspot is southern Florida, and along Interstates 25 and 70 in Colorado.

 

Many of these homebuyers are underwater not just because they bought more house than their incomes could support, and not just because prices are falling. They were also betting on commute patterns and demographic expectations that are proving invalid.

 

These were bets on location, ocation, location - premised on the idea that people would be willing to live hours from anywhere for the chance to own a single family home that they could actually afford. No federally sponsored haircut can put these housing bets back in the money, or stop these homes coming back on the market at dsitressed prices.

 

+++

There you go: stranded suburbs, sinking into foreclosure

[malco]

QUOTE

It is highly critical of what it calls the "buy-to-leave" market - where landlords buy properties but then keep them empty for years in the hope of capital appreciation. One in three apartments in central Leeds are empty at the moment.

UNQUOTE

 

Eh? I don't get it. Why on earth with someone sweating through a mortgage forego the income from rental? From what I recall of Leeds, there is plenty of demand for rentals from students and young workers coming into the city. A 3 bedroom flat is surely going to bring £600 to £700 per month rental income? There must be some amasingly rich folk in Leeds if they can afford to turn their nose up at that.

 

I would have thought that as capital appreciation fails to happen they will be more motivated to rent them out to make the best of a bad job.

[drbubb]

Great Find !

 

Many of these homebuyers are underwater ...

betting on commute patterns and demographic expectations that are proving invalid.

 

These were bets on location, location, location - premised on the idea that people would be willing to live hours from anywhere for the chance to own a single family home that they could actually afford. No federally sponsored haircut can put these housing bets back in the money, or stop these homes coming back on the market at dsitressed prices.

 

+++

There you go: stranded suburbs, sinking into foreclosure

 

these Stranded suburban homes are not worth saving.

Will they be turned into firewood someday??

 

[Magpie]

Great Find !

 

 

 

these Stranded suburban homes are not worth saving.

Will they be turned into firewood someday??

 

I've occasionally made the incorrect statement that a property will always have some value.

 

These are a pretty good example of how a property can become worthless. If the community fails and there is no demand, the house is just a pile of junk waiting to rot and fall down or get knocked down for the materials. the US has seen plenty of villages and towns abandoned in the past, both in the North East and in the West. No reason why some of these non-towns won't follow in their wake.

 

[Panas]

What will this mean to people living in rural areas? There's been a massive migration to such areas in recent years from the cities in the UK. Do you guys think this trend will be reversed? Nowadays, you have to travel a few miles to get to the nearest Tesco or Morrissons if you are lucky. Most village shops have closed. Maybe that would be a good investment.......re-opening a village shop? If people decide to stay where there's plenty of public transport, then property prices will be decimated in the rural areas won't they? You really need a car if you live in the countryside!

 

Mabon,

 

Maybe my description subconcsiously prompted you to reply as you did? I live in west Wales too.

 

 

In the last ten years or so a lot of foreigners (English, Belgiums, Dutch etc) have come her to pursue 'the rural idyll', the place has changed beyond recognition. House prices are an average of 10-15 times (or more) local average wages, many properties are empty the majority of the year as they are holiday homes, second homes etc.

 

We have a village shop, which is also a post office. I was talking to the postmaster the other day and he was saying that most of the post office services have been taken away from post offices. in fact his post office business could close, alarming a lot of folk who do their pensions, banking etc there.

 

He was wondering what to do and I mentioned to him that his shop was actually a boon, because the nearest supermarket is the one in town (about two miles or so by road) or 12 miles away for the bigger stores (Tesco, Asda etc).

 

I was saying to him to develop the shop because with the price of fuel, most people are gonna think twice before popping to tesco's 12 miles away for anything more than at least a few weeks shopping.

 

It does quite concern me what has been happening and what will happen. There's a whole industry around here of building houses and not many for the natives (houses that is).......a lot of property development millionaires. Nothing much else really aside from agriculture as you said and lowly paid tourism. I think that when the property boom really becomes a bust.....a lot of people are going to be jobless. This fuel matter is going to make things that much worse......most people cannot survive without a car. You have a railway running through your village.....you lucky ********! Opening a village shop might be a good idea. Thank you for your reply too DrB

[zceb90]

DrB, I think you go much too far in suggesting most people won't be able to afford to drive any time soon. Even if constriction of supplies strangled back car use to what it was in 1970, that will still be a lot of traffic.

 

My guess is that few people will abandon their cars. There will be a long period of economic decline during which the vehicle stock will deteriorate, and road deaths will in consequence increase. I'd like to think there will be a switch to local EVs and more use of trains and buses for long journeys. It is unlikely that oil supply will decline sharply following the Peak.

The trouble is, and you have hinted at this, oil supply is a function of massive organisation. The global corporation was pioneered by the oil industry and oil supply is not possible without global cooperation. Should that global cooperation be jeopardised by political chaos, it throws a spanner in the works so far as any idea what future oil production could be. That is why the utter failure of the political elite to grow a spine and come clean on this issue is quite alarming.

Malco, it's worth taking a further look at the section of the quote above which I've placed in italics. While I agree that, post-peak, there is likely to be a gradual decline in oil production what we need to consider is 'what will be the impact on consumers here'? At this point I should mention that I've just joined this forum today and assume we are generally discussing OECD nations and the UK in particular.

 

The most important single issue I've come across when considering the advent of peak (or even plateau) oil is the Export Land Model as developed by Texan geologist Jeffrey Brown. The conclusions from this study are that when an individual oil producer passes its peak the combination of flat / declining production combined with rising internal consumption lead to a rapid collapse in oil exports. Referenced link shows case studies of UK and Indonesia where rapid ceaseation of exports has already happened; current key exporter, Mexico, could reportedly cease to be an exporter as early as 2014 due to a combination of rising internal consumption and output 'crashing' in its super-giant Cantarell field.

 

It so happens that many of the world's key oil exporters have growing populations and a rapid growth rate in internal oil consumption due in no small part to the widespread practice in those nations of massively subsidising fuel. I've seen reports that gasoline retails at just 1.5 pence per litre in Venezuela! With internal prices divorced from reality and huge inflows of foreign currency as a result of oil shipments at world market prices it's hardly suprising to note that 'gas guzzling' SUV's etc are taking to the roads big time in these countries. The traditional economists' view that 'the rising prices will increase supply and / or curb demand' isn't working - the large indigenous populations of key oil producers don't see anywhere near world prices!

 

I understand that Jeff Brown's findings have been presented to teams of economists in both US and UK and posted quotes state 'you could have heard a pin drop in the room'. This issue has been heavily debated on The Oil Drum and consensus is that oil exports could halve by 2015 and more or less 'dry up' by 2020. Currently US is consuming 21m bbls/day of which 14m bbls/day are imports; UK numbers are 1.7m bbls/day and c300k bbls/day respectively. Looking ahead to 2015 and assuming (for now) unchanged consumption required imports for US would be c16m bbls/day and for UK c1m bbls/day. You might note that, in percentage terms, UK imports are rising more rapidly - that's because production declines are running at around 3% in USA vs around 10% in North Sea.

 

At this point I'm asking 'if exports are collapsing in key oil producing states' where are the imports for US, UK (not to mention China) going to come from? The likely answer, I feel, is 'they are not' which is exactly why those of us in UK should be preparing for a lifestyle using far less oil now rather than risk waiting until N Sea output has fallen by another 500k bbls/day and corresponding imports don't show up. If we are wrong and exports as usual continue for another decade or so then those who prepared early will be less oil (and car) dependent, fitter (through taking more regular exercise) and will have saved a considerable amount of money by not buying so much energy at these prices. If we are right and our ability to import oil really does 'fall off a cliff' then those who prepared early won't feel so much pain when widespread rationing is imposed.

[wren]

Excellent points, zceb90.

 

The UK is forced to transition from being a major exporter to importer on top of the other economic woes (house price bubble, service economy). It does not look good.

 

Welcome to the board!

[drbubb]

... in response to a posting on th Labour Gaffe thread...

 

Whilst a poll would be interesting I don't think it would be representative of the general population.

I'd imagine most people on here are not heavily leveraged (e.g STR's)and/or have hedges in place or at least have their budgets and finances structured with more slack than the average Joe Sixpack.

 

You are right. The Poll certainly shows that GEI posters are an untypical mob- which is great.

If more join the cause, it will help diminish excessive demand.

 

Isn't it funny, we worked to puncture speculative demand in property, and now we are trying to deflate wasteful demand in the soaring oil market

[drbubb]

This fuel matter is going to make things that much worse......most people cannot survive without a car. You have a railway running through your village.....you lucky ********! Opening a village shop might be a good idea. Thank you for your reply too DrB

\

 

Panas,

Have you considered moving to somewhere that has a rail connection.

There is little difference in price now, but it could be huge in the future.

 

BTW, I am delighted that GEI has posters in a variety of living arrangements. Notions and prejudices about where and how to live,

can receive fast and informed reactions. There's alot of "the grass is greener on the other side of the fence" going on at the moment.