UK House prices: News & Views

[drbubb]

Sorry Sir, I'm being obscure again. No problem (or complaint) at all. Quite the reverse

 

...... distant memories of a great guy who started a forum & who galvanised me into doing something about my financial situation with a sharp & deserved remark

Thank goodness.

I thought I had unknowingly insulted you in some way.

[LauraB]

 

I thought I had unknowingly insulted you in some way.

 

You'd soon know if you had! - Though thxs as ever for being so considerate ......... most of the time ;)

 

Naive people with GBP savings continue to have their wealth stolen in plain sight.

 

Merv of the BIS did say sorry for this months ago, so that's OK then...

Media brainwashing doesn't help. BBC Radio 4's Money Box with Paul Lewis is about as deep as Mr & Mrs average conservative Britain possibly go?

He will talk in depth with 'experts' on many subjects but never on anything non-Sterling related unless it is to rubbish it.

PMs have been on twice in the last few months; completely dismissed in a smarmy manner the first time, & its bubble status the second time; though Merryn Somerset-Webb did her best against fixed opposition then, including Lewis of course. Abandon hope all yea savers is the unspoken message of the programme imho.

[Panas]

 

 

I always thought it ridiculous that Cornwall/West Wales etc could have houses prices the same as London. There were always valid reasons for the peripheral regions being cheaper.

 

 

 

Her are the Land Registry survey results for Wales.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-13282978

 

Nowhere in West Wales do the prices seem as high as London. However, prices is West Wales have not collapsed. In fact, Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire and Gwynedd saw prices increase in March. The collapse which has occurred are in ex-heavy industry areas which one could say are possibly similar to Detroit in that their reason for being in existence is no longer there.

[Garincho]

Yes it's very regional, the areas that rose the most seem to be falling the most (as would be expected).

 

Places like Blaenau Gwent in Wales down nearly 20%!

 

These were the areas where even 10 years ago you could get a small terraced house for <£10K. Then they went up to ~£80k!, guess they are coming back to earth with a bang now.

 

It's not just relatively obscure places like Blaenau that have been falling recently. I did a quick check on the large northern cities of Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield and all are near their lowest price since prices peaked in 08/09, with Liverpool now having gone back below the low since peak, with prices at summer '04 levels. I also searched Bradford which bucked the trend of the large northern cities as prices have been almost static there since mid 09.

[drbubb]

How long before we see this?:

PROTEST SIGN...

Carried in front of No.10

=============================

 

"I AM SAVER - I AM BEING ROBBED...

 

SO MY LANDLORD CAN SURVIVE,

 

AND ROB ME AGAIN THRU HIGH RENT !"

 

END Ultra-low Rates !

They are ruining the UK

[LauraB]

How long before we see this?:

PROTEST SIGN...

Carried in front of No.10

=============================

 

"I AM SAVER - I AM BEING ROBBED...

 

SO MY LANDLORD CAN SURVIVE,

 

AND ROB ME AGAIN THRU HIGH RENT !"

 

END Ultra-low Rates !

They are ruining the UK

 

One guy with a sandwich board?

 

It's all going to plan beautifully, so far.

Peasantry dumbed down; too distracted by constant everyday activity to be able to think straight, (Britain is really good at that, contemplation is to be avoided); & now more divided amongst themselves than they have been for decades (the real triumph of BTL).

Sometimes I feel like a grateful refugee here; I can hear my heartbeat.....& the direct taxation is a pittance

[drbubb]

One guy with a sandwich board?

 

It's all going to plan beautifully, so far.

Peasantry dumbed down; too distracted by constant everyday activity to be able to think straight, (Britain is really good at that, contemplation is to be avoided); & now more divided amongst themselves than they have been for decades (the real triumph of BTL).

Sometimes I feel like a grateful refugee here; I can hear my heartbeat.....& the direct taxation is a pittance

 

I think if I were British living in London, I would be tempted to go and wear the Sandwich Board.

 

 

It is a fresh argument (and much needed!) that the Press might even cover.

[Carlton]

While the usual subprime mortgage suspects, like California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada used to rule the foreclosure roost and still have high volumes of distressed properties, the mid-west is seeing a surge in REOs now, thanks to the plain old recession. 40 percent of the Chicago market is foreclosures, 43 percent in Cleveland and 51 percent in Minneapolis. Home prices fell 8.7 percent in the Mid-West during the past three months compared to the previous quarter.

 

While the foreclosure crisis is abating on the front end, with fewer loans going newly delinquent, the pipeline of seriously delinquent loans is enormous. Banks are now ramping up the foreclosure process after the "robo-signing" paperwork scandal, but at their current pace it would take about four years to process all the bad loans through foreclosure and even longer to sell those homes out on the open market.

 

While buyer demand is rising, thanks to a slowly improving jobs picture, mortgage availability is still very difficult for the low to middle-income borrower, and falling prices don't help already weak consumer confidence in the housing market. If prices continue to fall further, which they likely will in the short term, the number of so-called "underwater" borrowers, those with negative equity, will rise even higher, which could in turn result in more loan delinquencies.

 

...46 percent of Massachusetts borrowers are underwater, according to LendingTree.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904204

 

I read this as at least two more years of falling prices (depending on local particulars of course).

[John Doe]

It's not just relatively obscure places like Blaenau that have been falling recently. I did a quick check on the large northern cities of Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield and all are near their lowest price since prices peaked in 08/09, with Liverpool now having gone back below the low since peak, with prices at summer '04 levels. I also searched Bradford which bucked the trend of the large northern cities as prices have been almost static there since mid 09.

As they used to say, "it's grim up North"

[John Doe]

I think if I were British living in London, I would be tempted to go and wear the Sandwich Board.

 

And (although correct) you would likely be considered a cuckoo, and then arrested (that's the UK for you)!

[Meralti]

Latest Halifax data is is -1.4% MoM, against a forecast of +0.2%.

 

See forex factory

 

So much for the spring bounce, that's a return to crash cruise speed.

[drbubb]

Latest Halifax data is is -1.4% MoM, against a forecast of +0.2%.

 

See forex factory

 

So much for the spring bounce, that's a return to crash cruise speed.

REALITY ... has been slow in coming back.

 

It may surprise people how quickly it now intrudes into even London !

[John Doe]

REALITY ... has been slow in coming back.

 

It may surprise people how quickly it now intrudes into even London !

 

Looks like the 5 to 10% fall (nominal) this year could still be on track.

 

Not sure if London will be hurt so bad though. It's still the old industrial and Northern towns (and the crappy areas that rose stupidly before) that are bearing the brunt.

 

e.g, around here (Glasgow) some areas are collapsing while others (W.End etc) have been flat and even rising

 

It’s a market of many markets.

[drbubb]

Looks like the 5 to 10% fall (nominal) this year could still be on track.

Not sure if London will be hurt so bad though. It's still the old industrial and Northern towns (and the crappy areas that rose stupidly before) that are bearing the brunt.

 

e.g, around here (Glasgow) some areas are collapsing while others (W.End etc) have been flat and even rising

It’s a market of many markets.

On closer look - It is NOT A BIG SHOCK.

 

The H&N Index actually rose by +0.31% for the month, so the data will not undermine confidence too much for those who look at it closely. But there does remain a bid vulnerability in the high asking prices. The "Delusion index" is near 144%, which is near record levels. There is plenty of room for asking prices to begin to fall...

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 + 0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

=====================================

mom : + 1.7% : + 1.6% : Est.DI: 143.8% / +0.52%: = n/a = :-1.55% :+0.09% :+ 0.31%

[bobbyald141]

So Mr Bubb, what was your PropertyTribe forecast? -9% for 2011?

I might wander over and see what they're making of it.

I expect they don't care as they all buy property 40% BMV - ha ha.

 

Some on HPC are also saying that Apr-10 = 168,593 and Apr-11 = 160,395 = -4.86% YoY.

It's a reasonable start I supose

[drbubb]

So Mr Bubb, what was your PropertyTribe forecast? -9% for 2011?

I might wander over and see what they're making of it.

I expect they don't care as they all buy property 40% BMV - ha ha.

 

Some on HPC are also saying that Apr-10 = 168,593 and Apr-11 = 160,395 = -4.86% YoY.

It's a reasonable start I supose

Haven't been there for a long time, are they abusing me for being too Bearish?

 

The year is far from over. And the -1.55% drop in the Halifax.SA index suggests some downside from here.

[drbubb]

Over at HP-Hysteria, you can find comments like this:

 

I like the way the Lloyds spokesman describes this as "a trend of "modest decline"".

-1.4% MoM is equivalent to an annualised fall of around 15.6%.

A bit like the way the Nationwide's negative numbers are signs of a market "stagnating"

 

The poor darlings do not realise that the NSA figure actually went up !

 

No wonder they find themselves continually "on the wrong side", they do not bother to pay attention to what is really happening. It takes too much time & effort, I suppose

 

 

On closer look - It is NOT A BIG SHOCK.

 

The H&N Index actually rose by +0.31% for the month, so the data will not undermine confidence too much for those who look at it closely. But there does remain a bid vulnerability in the high asking prices. The "Delusion index" is near 144%, which is near record levels. There is plenty of room for asking prices to begin to fall...

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 + 0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

=====================================

mom : + 1.7% : + 1.6% : Est.DI: 143.8% / +0.52%: = n/a = :-1.55% :+0.09% :+ 0.31%

[BoldAsBrass]

What risk free interest rate do people here expect ... hope ... think it is reasonable to get on their savings?

 

In instant access accounts?

 

In accounts where you tie your money up for a year?

 

In accounts / bonds where you tie your money up for 5 years?

 

In the same way that a houseowner's equity is (in crude terms) someone else's debt (because when a house is sold the deposit paid on the first house in a chain + the debt to buy the first house in the chain + the additional debt taken on in each link of the chain is the amount the vendor at the top of the chain gets for his house) - a saver's interest is paid by a borrower (with, of course, our mates the banks in the middle of the deal).

 

So, given that your (risk free) interest is paid by other people borrowing - what is a fair interest rate?

[Carlton]

U.S. home values fell in the first quarter at the fastest rate since late 2008, real estate data firm Zillow said on Monday, suggesting that a bottom will not be seen until 2012 at the earliest.

 

Zillow said its home value index fell 3 percent in the first three months of the year from the previous quarter, and was down 8.2 percent year-over-year.

 

The number of homeowners under water—or, those who owe more on the mortgage than their house is currently worth—amounted to 28.4 percent of single-family homeowners, representing a peak since Zillow began calculating the data in 2009.

 

That was up from 27 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42955097

[John Doe]

Over at HP-Hysteria, you can find comments like this:

 

I like the way the Lloyds spokesman describes this as "a trend of "modest decline"".

-1.4% MoM is equivalent to an annualised fall of around 15.6%.

A bit like the way the Nationwide's negative numbers are signs of a market "stagnating"

 

The poor darlings do not realise that the NSA figure actually went up !

 

No wonder they find themselves continually "on the wrong side", they do not bother to pay attention to what is really happening. It takes too much time & effort, I suppose

Thought you were being bullish then Doc, then realised the 1st non-italic line was still quoting.

 

I wonder what the mix of the data looks like.

 

EG, if a fair number of the mortgages they are now giving out are consisting of a rising proportion of BTL (as has been suggested) and also lower price range flats/houses then the average price will appear lower would it not?

 

Just a thought in the interests of balance

[neil324]

So the NSA was up 0.31%, doesn't the figure come in about 4% in a normal market this time of year that's why we get SA. How does it compare to 08/09 for the same month.

[G0ldfinger]

Spotted on JSMineset.

[dst]

After some months not being updated, I've just noticed that Spline's excellent website is back up to date.

For UK house price related stuff: www.houseprices.uk.net

 

Thanks Spline!

[Meralti]

So the NSA was up 0.31%, doesn't the figure come in about 4% in a normal market this time of year that's why we get SA. How does it compare to 08/09 for the same month.

 

 

Taken from the forex factory

 

Release Date Actual Forecast Previous

------------ ------ -------- --------

May 9 2011 -1.4% 0.2% 0.0%

May 7 2010 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% Revised From 1.1%

May 6 2009 -1.7% -1.0% -1.9%

May 2 2008 -1.3% -0.6% -2.5%

May 10 2007 1.1% 0.7% 1.2% Revised From 1.0%

[ecoface]

Bubb,

 

Beautiful head and shoulders pattern playing out on Barratt BDEV.

 

I can't post my chart, but check it out. Left shoulder late Feb.

 

Well, that seems to have been ruled out - the bull is strong on BDEV.

Look for double top next.