Jump to content

UK House prices: News & Views


Recommended Posts

 

 

Also, people forget that in the public sector, in addition to yearly pay increases, most people also get an annual increment (going up the pay scale), usually worth ~2 to 3%. So even in a year with a 2% pay rise, these people are keeping up with inflation.

 

 

 

Not entirely the case. There is a lot of fiction in the media right now about public sector pay which serves an important political purpose of distraction and divide and rule. Many of the pay rises that the public sector are getting right now are the tail end of 2-3 year deals, some of which were linked to the rate of inflation or x %, whichever is the greater in the final year of the deal. For example, I knew someone working in education who got a 4-5% (approx) pay rise a few years back because at the time the final year of the deal was linked to RPI. I suspect with the new Tory Government such linked to inflation deals will totally end. In fact, other than those in the lowest pay bracket, the Tories set a 2 year pay freeze, but existing deals would be honoured. I also read somewhere that the current best paid public servants are the bankers who were nationalised. Amazingly, their pay increases and bonuses are included as part of the public service now, but the media and those with a political agenda to attack public sector workers hardly report this at all.

 

As for increments, public servants don't get these every year indefinately. They are usually part of the pay package when someone starts a job on a salary range within a job. Again, I know someone who works in public sector IT and their annual increment is linked to their career progression. They move up an increment the more skilled they become although again there is a maximum number of increments that can be attained, usually between 4-8. Many however, will get their increment regardless of achievement, but this often tends to be in the much lower paid jobs where career progression doesn't exist.

 

Pay frozen for senior public sector staff

 

An ice age for public-sector pay – at least for more senior staff – began on Wednesday with the government announcing a freeze from April for almost 120,000 high-ranking employees.

 

Top civil servants, NHS managers, judges, hospital consultants and family doctors, along with the most senior military officers, will be hit.

 

The government has already announced a cap of 1 per cent on rises for all staff for the two years from April 2011.

 

George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, has said that an incoming Conservative government would freeze pay for about two-thirds of all public-sector workers from April next year, with no increase for anyone earning more than £18,000.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4437e73e-2c33-11df-9187-00144feabdc0.html

 

Budget 2010: two year pay freeze for public sector

 

Teachers, nurses, police officers and other public servants will see their take home pay fall in real terms after a two-year salary freeze was imposed.

 

The news that pay restraint would last until well into 2012, twice as long as had been expected, led to fury among trade unions, who pointed out that state employees would find themselves worse off as a result of inflation.

 

George Osborne sweetened the unexpectedly bitter pill by introducing a flat £250 pay annual increase for the 1.7 million public servants earning less than £21,000 – more than a quarter of the total workforce.

 

In opposition, the Conservatives had said that they would impose the pay freeze for a single year, but that exemptions would apply only for those on less than £18,000.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7847040/Budget-2010-two-year-pay-freeze-for-public-sector.html

 

PUBLIC SECTOR PAY CONTINUES TO GROW – WHEN BANKER’S BONUSES ARE INCLUDED

 

Despite pay freezes, recruitment bans and efficiency savings, public sector pay kept rising until December 2010. This is the conclusion of Policy Exchange, the think tank for new politics, following a scrutiny of statistics from the Office for National Statistics. The figures give cause to revise the proverb: there are lies, damned lies and statistics from ONS.

 

The ONS data reveal that the gap between public sector and private sector pay is still rising. Despite private sector workers losing out during the recession, public sector workers have seen their advantage grow. The new analysis shows that despite the coalition’s attempt at pay restraint, public sector salaries continued to rise as late as December 2010. That was despite pay for many workers in the private sector actually falling even before inflation is included – meaning that many private sector workers will have seen drastic cuts in their standard of living.

 

This conflict with reality arises because the ONS is required to use the public sector definition as any organisation wholly owned by the taxpayer. This brings in the payrolls, including bonus payments, of bailed-out banks such as RBS, Lloyds Banking Group and Northern Rock. It also includes Bradford and Bingley plc. While London Underground is within the public sector, universities are in the private sector. These numbers from ONS are clearly useful for some purposes, but not for measuring public sector pay nor for comparing it with pay in the private sector

 

More reliable data from Local Government Employers Pay and Workforce Survey and referring to local government only, shows a real term fall in the total gross pay bill in the 2 years since 2008/9.

 

http://www.publicnet.co.uk/news/2011/05/10/public-sector-pay-continues-to-grow-%E2%80%93-when-bankers-bonuses-are-included/

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 5.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Not entirely the case. There is a lot of fiction in the media right now about public sector pay which serves an important political purpose of distraction and divide and rule. Many of the pay rises that the public sector are getting right now are the tail end of 2-3 year deals, some of which were linked to the rate of inflation or x %, whichever is the greater in the final year of the deal. For example, I knew someone working in education who got a 4-5% (approx) pay rise a few years back because at the time the final year of the deal was linked to RPI. I suspect with the new Tory Government such linked to inflation deals will totally end. In fact, other than those in the lowest pay bracket, the Tories set a 2 year pay freeze, but existing deals would be honoured. I also read somewhere that the current best paid public servants are the bankers who were nationalised. Amazingly, their pay increases and bonuses are included as part of the public service now, but the media and those with a political agenda to attack public sector workers hardly report this at all.

 

As for increments, public servants don't get these every year indefinately. They are usually part of the pay package when someone starts a job on a salary range within a job. Again, I know someone who works in public sector IT and their annual increment is linked to their career progression. They move up an increment the more skilled they become although again there is a maximum number of increments that can be attained, usually between 4-8. Many however, will get their increment regardless of achievement, but this often tends to be in the much lower paid jobs where career progression doesn't exist.

Well I can’t speak for the whole public sector, but I can confirm the following in the University sector where I now work.

 

There are several increments per grade (and then another 3 or 4 discretionary). At the top of the grade you need a promotion to go to the next (another several increments then until the need for the next promotion). These are not just the low paid, having just checked, these include rates up to £57k (not including 16% pension contribution - another £9k!)

 

While promotion used to be quite difficult, a few years ago they changed the criteria from having to meet all the requirements laid out in the promotion process, to just having to meet the majority of them (i.e. just over half). Since then I have not (personally) known of a single case where someone has not been promoted when they reached the top of their grade.

 

As for the tail end pay deals, ours and many of these type ended a few years ago at the end of a 3 year deal that was to pay the higher of RPI or 2.5% as the last instalment. RPI hit 5% that month, so that's what was given.

 

That was in 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/5188664.stm

 

Our latest deal was 0.5% :)

 

There might be a lot of fiction about, but there is also a lot of fact.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the one off tax change will affect quite a few, it is only for 1 year and it just isn't the case for everyone anyway.

 

For the lower paid - and many medium paid for example (under ~ 40k) - after tax income is rising due to the TAX threshold going up.

 

Also, people forget that in the public sector, in addition to yearly pay increases, most people also get an annual increment (going up the pay scale), usually worth ~2 to 3%. So even in a year with a 2% pay rise, these people are keeping up with inflation.

That may be true.

 

But the more "they" make, the more taxes the rest of us must pay, to keep "them" ahead of inflation. So pay rises in the public sector may mean lower after-tax incomes for those in the private sector.

 

The share of the pie going to the private sector gets smaller.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I can’t speak for the whole public sector, but I can confirm the following in the University sector where I now work.

 

There are several increments per grade (and then another 3 or 4 discretionary). At the top of the grade you need a promotion to go to the next (another several increments then until the need for the next promotion). These are not just the low paid, having just checked, these include rates up to £57k (not including 16% pension contribution - another £9k!)

 

While promotion used to be quite difficult, a few years ago they changed the criteria from having to meet all the requirements laid out in the promotion process, to just having to meet the majority of them (i.e. just over half). Since then I have not (personally) known of a single case where someone has not been promoted when they reached the top of their grade.

 

As for the tail end pay deals, ours and many of these type ended a few years ago at the end of a 3 year deal that was to pay the higher of RPI or 2.5% as the last instalment. RPI hit 5% that month, so that's what was given.

 

That was in 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/5188664.stm

 

Our latest deal was 0.5% :)

 

There might be a lot of fiction about, but there is also a lot of fact.

0.5%? Time to become a public sector banker then.

 

Five senior RBS executives share pay and bonuses worth £21m

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/five-senior-rbs-executives-share-pay-and-bonuses-worth-21m-2245269.html

 

It's a bit of a struggle to find evidence of current pay deals for the public sector, which may suggest there aren't any - pay freeze. A search reveals little but there are a number of longer term deals that ended in April 2011. Local Government already has a pay freeze in place and I suppose it is now possible that this will be extended to the NHS, police, etc. Along with education, these are the biggest public sector employers.

 

I doubt the rest of the public sector is as generous with increments as the education sector seems to be, but it is possible that these are now being used to replace the lack of a pay increase? I suppose it depends on where the money comes from to fund it. Are increments paid out of the annual wage settlement or from another budget? I would have thought the latter, after all, a zero pay increase means no settlement, but some would still get increments in accordance with the terms of the contract of employment they started on. I can imagine that increments will be targeted soon.

 

Public sector pay confirmed by government

 

Kat Baker25 March 2009 09:49

 

Millions of public sector workers will still receive annual pay rises of more than 2% until 2011, the government has confirmed.

 

NHS staff and police officers have been told their pay awards will be met in full, despite concerns yesterday that the fall in the Retail Prices Index – used to set public sector pay – to zero for the first time in 49 years, could leave many facing pay freezes.

 

Under the agreement, nurses will continue receiving pay rises under "long-term deals", which will lead to a 2.4% increase in 2009-10, with a further 2.25% boost the following year. It is expected that teachers will get an additional 2.3% both this year and next, while police officers' pay will increase by 2.6% in 2009-10, with another 2.55% rise in 2010-11.

 

The pay deals were agreed before the recession set in, but the government now faces mounting calls from the private sector – where many have been forced to introduce pay freezes – for the awards to be re-evaluated.

 

http://www.personneltoday.com/articles/2009/03/25/49997/public-sector-pay-confirmed-by-government.html

 

Who knows what to believe?

 

Latest on pay deals: modest private sector pay recovery continues

 

Pay award statistics from XpertHR published today (subscription required) show settlements at a median 2.1% in the three months to the end of October 2010, up slightly from 2% the previous rolling quarter.

 

===============================

 

However this recovery is coming from the private, not the public sector. Over the 12 months to October 2010, public sector deals have fallen to a median of nil for the first time in the 25 years that we have been recording pay deals electronically. This compares with 1.5% for private sector deals over the same time period.

 

Of course, seen in the context of the 4.5% Retail Prices Index inflation figure for October released on Tuesday (on the ONS website), a pay award of 2.1% is a significant real terms pay cut and is hardly cause for concern about pay pressures in the economy.

 

When we surveyed employers in October, they predicted pay rises around 2% for 2011, and it is likely that we will see many more pay awards around that level once we start seeing the first deals of the January 2011 bargaining round.

 

http://www.xperthr.co.uk/blogs/pay-intelligence/2010/11/inflation.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0.5%? Time to become a public sector banker then.

Funny you should say that B)

 

But seriously, I am trying to commercialise some of my research at present to get back into the private sector (always the aim since coming into the public sector some years back).

 

The lifetime research academics job seems to consist primarily of more and more researchers chasing a smaller and smaller pot of funds.

 

Who knows what to believe?

 

Aint that the truth! I think?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From the Property Diary in GPC:

 

Never time the market - it feels like we are nearing the bottom.

What are your thoughts on the factors facing the UK housing market. I know the returns I can make in the current market...but the whole macro inflation/deflation issue confuses me...what are your inf/def ex[ectations and what effect might they have on the housing market?

Bob,

I cannot see any evidence for a "bottom".

Indeed, I think it looks as if Buyers are deserting the market (apart from the total FOOLS from places like Hong Kong who are determined to throw their money away on overpriced new London properties).

 

The following figures might put the unhealthy balance into perspective.

 

UK ASKING PRICES - at ABSURD levels : 145%+ is the highest on record

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 + 0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 :

=====================================

mom : + 1.3% : -0.02% : Est.DI: 145.7% / + 0.52% : = n/a = : - 1.55% : +0.09% : + 0.31%

 

What are the vendors smoking?

 

Even Miles Shipside mentions the unlikelihood of these prices "sticking":

 

Shipside adds: “The increase in agents’ property stock levels combined with a reduction in the number

of properties coming to market suggests that the number of buyers has fallen even faster than the

number of sellers, and transaction volumes will therefore remain low as we move into the traditional

summer slowdown. Estate agents usually see their stock turnover more quickly during the spring, but

this year’s slower market suggests that stock levels may exceed Rightmove’s previous record of 79

properties per branch over the next few months.

 

/more: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/05/may-2011.pdf

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SHIT HAPPENS -

Especially to those who cannot control after their sexual urges

 

A Sad story, but I wonder how much of the money will go those those who are "truly innocent" and she put out of work?

== == ==

 

Single mum launches £40k internet campaign to stop eviction

 

By Jenny Amphlett Jenny.Amphlett@Thesentinel.Co.Uk

 

SINGLE mother-of-one Samantha Wilkes has launched an internet campaign to raise £40,000 to prevent her being made homeless with her four-week-old baby.

 

The 39-year-old needs the money by the end of July to stop NatWest repossessing her Trentham home.

 

But Samantha, who fell into debt after her furniture business collapsed last year, is living on £65-a-week income support.

 

Now she is urging people to support her £10 sponsor-a-brick campaign to help reach the £40,000 total.

 

Samantha, who gave birth to son, Shiron, on April 18, said: "I am crying all the time. The whole situation rips me up.

 

"Every day I look at Shiron and wonder how am I going to give him a good future."

 

Samantha bought her 109-year-old Earls Road home for £170,000 five years ago. She took out a £77,000 mortgage and used cash from the sale of her previous home to pay for the three-bedroom property.

 

At the same time Samantha took out a £100,000 loan on her Stone-based Charnwood Furniture business and secured it on her home.

 

But the firm was hit by the recession and Samantha had to make 10 staff, including her sister, redundant before shutting the business.

 

Now Samantha, who pays £300-a-month on her mortgage and has £40,000 of the business loan still to pay, says the value of her home has plummeted to £110,000.

 

/more: http://www.thisisstaffordshire.co.uk/news/NEED-163-40k-SAVE-HOUSE/article-3563338-detail/article.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Useful chart / suggests possible cliff's edge ahead:

HPIukReal.gif.jpg

 

/source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&st=165

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Useful chart / suggests possible cliff's edge ahead:

HalifaxReal0411.gif

 

/source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&st=165

 

 

 

 

I also get the feeling we are now about to fall off the cliff face re property prices in the UK.

 

There are of course a huge percentage of people who the property value price makes no difference i.e. buy hold and paid for property owners.

 

However, for the younger upwardly mobile or FTB, a better time could soon be with us, with the CPI/RPI figures out yesterday then interest rates will have to rise sooner than is being stated, stagnated markets and increase in volume of property available coming to the market, combined with the increase in repossessions hitting the market all points to a big fall in market prices across the board.

 

Most importantly thou IMHO is the fact, that the sheeple are starting to realize their house, as a hole in the wall cash machine days are over, and that house prices can go significantly down as well as up!

 

One area I am unsure about is farms and farmland, if anybody has any historical data or strong views on how farm/farmland prices will fare go as domestic houses values fall I would be really interested?

 

My own indicator for the bottom of the property crash would be a ratio of 8xRental prices in terms of value on the average semi/terraced house in a reasonable area, seems extreme but I think we will see it.

 

I.e., 8K market rent equals 64k market value. Rents may rise with the expected strong inflation but the multiplier will be attained.

 

Debt is real value is speculative.

 

Regards

 

ML

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Useful chart / suggests possible cliff's edge ahead:

HPIukReal.gif.jpg

 

/source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&st=165

 

Or, from a TA perspective, a possible bounce off the channel line or even off the previous peak as a support perhaps?

 

SHIT HAPPENS -

Especially to those who cannot control after their sexual urges

 

You're all heart Bubb ;)

 

Good job you didn't watch "the scheme" about an estate up here in bonnie scotland that was on the tv last night!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, a bounce might happen too.

I just doubt it somehow.

 

You're all heart Bubb ;)

Good job you didn't watch "the scheme" about an estate up here in bonnie scotland that was on the tv last night!

Did you see the comments on the article, and also on the HPC thread?

 

Mine were more restrained than others.

 

She is at least trying to make a go of the situation she is in, while other might just declare bankruptcy and become wards of the state.

 

But what I don't like is the sense that when something goes wrong, the state or someone else has to remedy the situation, rather than the person who was directly involved, and seems most responsible.

 

What is "The Scheme" btw?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"not available in your area" unfortunately

 

New BBC documentary The Scheme offers controversial look at life on Scottish housing estate

May 18 2010 By Brian McIver and Gayle Ritchie

A FAMILY lose a son to prison, while another faces death threats from dealers he shortchanged - and cops want to talk to him about a smashed car.

Down the street, a pregnant teenager is recovering after her boyfriend kneed her in the stomach during a domestic.

The shocking events are at the heart of a controversial Scottish television programme, but it's not fiction. In fact, it's just another day in the life of the locals from the Onthank housing estate in Kilmarnock.

TV cameras uncovered these shocking stories when they spent a year following six families for The Scheme, which starts on BBC1 Scotland tonight.

The programme, which features violence and apparent drug-taking in the opening credits, lifts the lid on life on the estate in four episodes.

 

QUESTION:

=========

I live a very short walk from equivalent areas in HK.

 

484c304c7256aa723f72c1fd2420_grande.jpg

 

The government here SPENDS LESS money on the people who live in those estates, than the UK government spends on people living in its estates.

Yet they are very safe, and even a "foreign devil" like me can safely walk through those estates, even late at night.

(in fact, some of the people who live there WORK at low wages all around me, as gardeners, cleaners, receptionists, and in other jobs. They are hard working and polite, and would not even think about living on handouts.)

 

Why?

 

What does HK do right, that the UK does wrong?

 

Is "The government here SPENDS LESS money on the people who live in those estates"

part of the answer.

 

(IE: they may almost starve if they don't work. But actually: they won't starve because there are various forms of help to those who really need it, including charity, but dependency is a pretty poor career in HK.)

 

Tough love works ! Try it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tough love works ! Try it

Oh we tried that before, have you not read Dickens? :rolleyes:

 

The sad thing is that a lot of the people on these “sink” estates are actually quite decent. It’s a relatively small group that drag everyone else down.

 

There is a real prejudice that arises purely from your home address if you’re from certain estates in some areas. Even if you try to escape, the odds are stacked against you.

 

That said, there are a fair number of wasters too. The problem is that now it is engrained in the psyche. 3rd generation unemployed with no prospects and, as a consequence, no hope or ambition.

 

How to break the cycle? After many years thinking about it, I believe the only option is to invest s**t loads into the infant-primary-secondary school system in these areas. Get them at a very young age and show the kids that there is an alternative to the c**p they see at home and all around them every day, instead of letting them grow up thinking it's all normal.

 

Cutting the parents benefits etc will only hurt the innocent kids. That’s not tough love, that’s punishment for being born to asshole parents.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That said, there are a fair number of wasters too. The problem is that now it is engrained in the psyche. 3rd generation unemployed with no prospects and, as a consequence, no hope or ambition.

 

How to break the cycle? After many years thinking about it, I believe the only option is to invest s**t loads into the infant-primary-secondary school system in these areas. Get them at a very young age and show the kids that there is an alternative to the c**p they see at home and all around them every day, instead of letting them grow up thinking it's all normal.

 

Cutting the parents benefits etc will only hurt the innocent kids. That’s not tough love, that’s punishment for being born to asshole parents.

That might work.

 

But I think you need to stop giving such tempting incentives (free flats) to young girls having children out of wedlock.

 

LondonRentals_415.jpg o o o (we can get the state to pay)

Why work hard to pay rising rents when the state-will-provide living for free? And BTW, the availability of all those housing subsidies is pushing up rents and house prices for those who are not grabbing the freebies. They provide a strong an non-commercial "bid in the market" whilst soaking up supply.

 

Are orphanages really such a bad idea?

 

In Hong Kong, there are few single moms because of the "loss of face" that the mother would go through in raising a child that way. We almost rented one of our flats to a single mom, and then I saw through the elaborate lie that I was being told about why the father was not there.

 

In the UK, there needs to be a sea change in attitudes if you want to stop those third generation dependents from growing so fast in numbers. It is really not, an acceptable "career choice" to have children to be looked after at state expense. Not if you want a society that has fewer future criminals being incubated.

 

Dealing drugs seems to be one of the few ways to fortune on those estates in the UK. And because it is lucrative for the pushers, it spreads like wildfire.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LondonRentals_415.jpg o o o (we can get the state to pay)

Why work hard to pay rising rents when the state-will-provide living for free? And BTW, the availability of all those housing subsidies is pushing up rents and house prices for those who are not grabbing the freebies. They provide a strong an non-commercial "bid in the market" whilst soaking up supply.

Even the EA's are now talking about the impact of Housing Benefit caps...

 

The changes to Local Housing Allowance came into force on April 1st and will affect any new tenancy. However, they could also have a wider impact on the London buy-to-let market.

 

The new maximum weekly rates for Local Housing Allowance are:

 

• £250 for a one bedroom property

 

• £290 for a two bedroom property

 

• £340 for a three bedroom property

 

• £400 for a four bedroom property

 

The carrot for landlords who reduce their rent so that a benefit claimant can stay as a tenant is to have their rent paid directly by the local authority for two years. But such a small carrot means that the reduction to housing benefit is likely to encourage landlords who currently let to benefit claimants to look for private tenants instead.

 

That could have a significant impact on rents in the private rental sector. If more landlords do decide to switch to private tenants as a result of the change, that will increase the supply of rental properties at the lower end of the market, pushing down rents. Downward pressure on rents could even ripple through the market to more expensive properties.

 

/source: http://www.ludlowthompson.com/property_news/New_rules_on_housing_benefit_what_do_London_landlords_need_to_know/article.htm?id=953

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are orphanages really such a bad idea?

I agree this policy (giving young pregnant girls flats etc) seriously sends the wrong message, is not sustainable and has to be addressed.

 

But, have you not seen "Orphan Annie"?

 

Poor little babe, another innocent paying for the faults of the parents, again.

 

Instead, the Tory idea of hostels for the mother and child if their extended family couldn't support them could be a better option.

 

As for drugs, that's a whole new ball game.

 

** Rant about to start **

The only option that's viable is to legalise and control it, whilst educating the population so they can make informed, responsible choices of what they decide they want to put in their bodies, and then use the ridiculous amounts of money (which they currently waste in a futile attempt to stop the trade) to help those with the issues that get them into the difficulties in the first place (as it's actually very rare that a person with no problems becomes an addict).

 

*Takes control away from the gangsters

*Lets the quality of the drugs be controlled so reduces deaths from laced product

*Raises taxes

*The “war” on drugs was always a non winnable war (e.g. see how well prohibition worked in US).

*Takes away the idea of becoming dealers for on the sink estates - as you're correct in as much that the only "rich" people these kids see are the dealers. What then is the incentive for them to work at, or even attend, school?

 

** Rant over **

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As for drugs, that's a whole new ball game.

 

** Rant about to start **

The only option that's viable is to legalise and control it, whilst educating the population so they can make informed, responsible choices of what they decide they want to put in their bodies, and then use the ridiculous amounts of money (which they currently waste in a futile attempt to stop the trade) to help those with the issues that get them into the difficulties in the first place (as it's actually very rare that a person with no problems becomes an addict).

 

*Takes control away from the gangsters

*Lets the quality of the drugs be controlled so reduces deaths from laced product

*Raises taxes

*The “war” on drugs was always a non winnable war (e.g. see how well prohibition worked in US).

*Takes away the idea of becoming dealers for on the sink estates - as you're correct in as much that the only "rich" people these kids see are the dealers. What then is the incentive for them to work at, or even attend, school?

 

** Rant over **

Makes sense.

 

Again, the idea should be to "remove the career option"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a difference really in philosophy/culture/morality isn't it? Eastern cultures have Confucianism and the Tao as the 'way'. The West has Christian philosophy which is by and large dead or by now disbelieved in by the great many.

Maybe the West has come to the end of the road not only financially but also morally and culturally. I can't see Britain doing a 'Hong Kong' or Japan/Korea. As JD said we tried it once in Dickens' day.

Wouldn't you say it is a little short sighted to stereotype all behaviour or single parent's kids as potential scum and drug dealers? There are plenty of rich lawyers/bankers still enjoying after dinner cocaine, happy with the status quo. Less so in HK, I'd dare say. This is a reflection of the underlying morality/philosophy which keeps society on the straight and narrow...But straight and narrow it is and lacking in creativity or independence perhaps. HK shouldn't be compared to Kilmarnock IMHO. Let's see if you'd prefer to live in London or HK-more of a useful contrast. Better still ask a Hong Kong born Chinese. I am sure with a bit of digging you could find an underclass of sweatshop workers in HK with zero chance ever of owning their own place etc...in fact only forever will they be rental slaves locked into a society by a morality/philosophy which will keep them in their station for their whole lives, without much chance of upward social mobility.

Is the goal of life simply financial rewards for being a hard working goody goody?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a difference really in philosophy/culture/morality isn't it? Eastern cultures have Confucianism and the Tao as the 'way'. The West has Christian philosophy which is by and large dead or by now disbelieved in by the great many.

Maybe the West has come to the end of the road not only financially but also morally and culturally. I can't see Britain doing a 'Hong Kong' or Japan/Korea. As JD said we tried it once in Dickens' day.

Wouldn't you say it is a little short sighted to stereotype all behaviour or single parent's kids as potential scum and drug dealers? There are plenty of rich lawyers/bankers still enjoying after dinner cocaine, happy with the status quo. Less so in HK, I'd dare say. This is a reflection of the underlying morality/philosophy which keeps society on the straight and narrow...But straight and narrow it is and lacking in creativity or independence perhaps. HK shouldn't be compared to Kilmarnock IMHO. Let's see if you'd prefer to live in London or HK-more of a useful contrast. Better still ask a Hong Kong born Chinese. I am sure with a bit of digging you could find an underclass of sweatshop workers in HK with zero chance ever of owning their own place etc...in fact only forever will they be rental slaves locked into a society by a morality/philosophy which will keep them in their station for their whole lives, without much chance of upward social mobility.

Is the goal of life simply financial rewards for being a hard working goody goody?

 

The problem is...

The Western "solution" to providing for Single Moms & their families is spawning MORE OF SAME.

 

The UK seems to have this problem in overdrive compared to the USA or France, and I think the reason is that they are far too generous in handing out these benefits. To me, it is crystal clear, and needs no debate. But others may not see it that way...

 

"Is the goal of life simply financial rewards for being a hard working goody goody?"

 

No.

 

Is the goal of life simply handing out benefits to whomever may want them, without regard to intrinsic fairness to all, including those who pay for them?

 

I want to live in a fair, just, and moral society. The UK has plenty of room for improvement, and HK has some too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The following figures might put the unhealthy balance into perspective.

 

UK ASKING PRICES - at ABSURD levels : 145%+ is the highest on record

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 + 0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 :

=====================================

mom : + 1.3% : -0.02% : Est.DI: 145.7% / + 0.52% : = n/a = : - 1.55% : +0.09% : + 0.31%

 

What are the vendors smoking?

A thread from HPC has a chart of the Delusion Index:

 

delusionindexcomp.jpg

 

/source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=120428&st=75

 

But they use Nationwide alone, instead of The average of H&N

 

Using H&N (non-seasonally adjusted), the latest figure is ABOVE any month in 2009. But it compares May Rightmove with the latest H&N index (which is April.) If the May H&N index falls, then the May Delusion index will be even more extreme !

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2009

J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%

F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW

M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%

A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%

M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%

J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%

Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%

A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%

S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%

O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH

N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%

D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

 

Maybe someone should post this on HPC.

 

I do think the H&N averages are more accurate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BARRATT / BDEV is vulnerable ... update

 

BDEV2011.gif.jpg

 

... as is the UK Property market

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Just watched the first episode, quite shocking really, it's so far removed from any situation I've had to live in.

 

I'm at a loss for what we do with the kind of people featured in the show.

 

On the one hand they seem so hopeless and irresponsible that I can't imagine they'd ever be productive members of society, so paying to keep them away from me on a sink housing estate with just enough money to keep them in a poor lifestyle seems like a reasonable option. It's very hard to think of them as adults capable of rational thinking, beyond short-term gratification.

 

But then I wonder if that system is just trapping them and making them more helpless and irresponsible? Are they actually better off living on state benefits?

 

Inspired by a post on another website I read, I tried to calculate if someone in the UK could live a life on minimum wage without state help and the result sort of shocked me.

 

My assumptions are based on a person living by themselves working a 37.5 hour week on minimum wage.

 

£11,856.00 Annual Gross Income

(£757.64) Income Tax

(£450.89) National Insurance

(£592.80) 5% Pension Contribution

£10,054.67 Annual Net Pay

£837.89 Monthly Net Pay

 

Monthly Recurring Costs

(£350.00) Private Rent for 1-Bed Flat

(£6.00) Contents Insurance

(£64.00) Council Tax (inc. 25% reduction for single person discount)

(£20.00) Gas utility bill

(£20.00) Electricity utility bill

(£20.00) Water utility bill

(£12.00) Television Licence

(£110.00) Groceries (Based on £3 per day for food, plus £20 for cupboard items, cleaning supplies, toiletries, etc...)

(£10.00) Medical (Medicines, Opticians, Dentist, etc...)

(£55.00) Monthly Bus Pass

(£667.00) TOTAL Monthly Recurring Costs

 

 

£179.89 Monthly Remainder to choose how to split on;

- Savings

- Phone & Internet

- Household items (furniture, electrical, repairs, etc...)

- Clothing

- Haircuts

- Entertainment

- Presents

- Holidays

 

I wouldn't say £40 per week in the UK after you've paid your recurring costs was living, it's just surviving really.

 

What suprised me was quite how much tax would be taken once you've added up income tax, national insurance, council tax and VAT on purchases.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just watched the first episode, quite shocking really, it's so far removed from any situation I've had to live in.

 

I wouldn't say £40 per week in the UK after you've paid your recurring costs was living, it's just surviving really.

 

What suprised me was quite how much tax would be taken once you've added up income tax, national insurance, council tax and VAT on purchases.

Good post, sadly, there are estates like this all over the UK.

 

Clearly some of the residents are, esentially, beyond hope. Yet some do get out and others try to do what they can and make up for their past, such as the ex alcoholic father looking for work and trying hard to bring up his daughter. There is no quick fix.

 

That's an interesting calculation and quite telling, and that's with the costs assumed which would appear best case. A night out can easily cost £40 so there goes any savings, as you say, it's just surviving.

 

It's easy to see how a few weeks without work mean debts building and then you need to add on credit card and loan shark payments. It can very quickly gets into a vicious cycle.

 

Then it's quite easy to see why people just sign on instead. That's why I liked the Libdems idea of taking the tax threshold to 10k, at least there would be more of an incentive to work then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...