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UK House prices: News & Views

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"Could spell misery for all property investors"

"A little-known FTSE signal telling you exactly when to buy property again."

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And yet, those rents keep on rising.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14572051

 

Rents have risen fastest in London, where they are now 7.1% higher than a year ago, at an average of £1,009 per month.

 

"First-time buyers can't get mortgages, so demand for rented homes soars," he said.

 

"Rents shoot up, tenants find it even harder to save a deposit to buy, and rental demand strengthens further."

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Looks like there has never been a better time to buy! (Well not in the last 35 years that is).

25 years, I would say. And only if you had your capital invested in gold.

 

Keep in mind that this is the biggest financial crisis ever. We could easily see prices below previous lows, while interest rates might still be absurdly low at the time. This will be the time to buy on a fixed rate.

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:D Great charts, average house price of 2 kilos of gold would be the target for me. I do feel so sorry for the HPCers, they have been screwed every which way for many many years now. Unfortunately they have rather brought it on themselves, ignoring the advice of the goldbugs and banning anyone who dares to disagree with their mantra. In retrospect, it was obvious that the government would inflate.

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25 years, I would say. And only if you had your capital invested in gold.

 

Keep in mind that this is the biggest financial crisis ever. We could easily see prices below previous lows, while interest rates might still be absurdly low at the time. This will be the time to buy on a fixed rate.

It didn't take long from 200 to 150 did it? If the lows are taken out or close, I wonder when that will be? This rate it could be sooner than I bargained for. Do you have a time forecast, GF? Also have you updated the US HP graph? Can't see it.

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And yet, those rents keep on rising.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14572051

Link to actual report here

 

http://www.lslps.co.uk/documents/buy_to_let_index_jul11.pdf

 

I thought it seemed odd that the headline was rents rising, but that's because I live in an area where they are declining. It was pretty obvious around here about six weeks / a month ago from just browsing adverts that rents started stalling or falling.

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Link to actual report here

 

http://www.lslps.co.uk/documents/buy_to_let_index_jul11.pdf

 

I thought it seemed odd that the headline was rents rising, but that's because I live in an area where they are declining. It was pretty obvious around here about six weeks / a month ago from just browsing adverts that rents started stalling or falling.

 

Looks like 3 regions falling slightly, all the others are up (although some rises and all the falls are mostly in the noise). London really swings it though >7% YoY.

 

They are up in W.End of Glasgow right now, but that is because the students are returning. Guess this has an effect elsewhere too.

 

Interestingly, they look at the capital loss when calculating total returns (looks to be a paltry 1.2%).

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In an effort to create a new "chain of fools", here comes the Express...

 

Now its the average Express reader who is being duped.

Check the headline - But where's the actual news ???

 

SHOCK RISE IN HOUSE PRICES

House prices will rise by 14 per cent over the next four years to reach a record high

 

Saturday August 20,2011 .. By Dana Gloger

 

HOUSE prices will rise by 14 per cent over the next four years to reach a record high, economists have predicted in a shock report.

In the strongest sign yet that the ­property downturn is over, they say the average British home will be worth more than £200,700 in 2015, up from the current value of £176,000.

That will be nearly £10,000 more than the ­previous peak in the boom year of 2007, when the average home was worth £191,200.

 

Rising demand coupled with a lack of supply will cause the increase in prices, according to the highly regarded think-tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

Less than half the number of homes needed to meet demand are currently being built, meaning property values will continue to rocket. An increase in the availability of mortgages over the past few months will also contribute to values rising, as there will be more buyers competing for a limited number of properties.

Population growth and the increasing trend for smaller homes and more single occupancy houses will all drive demand even higher.

 

House prices will rise by 14 per cent over the next four years to reach a record high

Prices have already risen by 2.3 per cent since January, as the Daily Express reported yesterday.

Today’s predictions will be welcomed by home owners, many of whom have battled with negative equity since the start of the recession.

 

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, seven per cent of people currently owe more than the value of their property. In parts of north-east England it is as high as 16 per cent.

The predicted rise in property values will also come as a relief to those worried about the faltering economy and static wages.

Three-quarters of Britons have not received a pay rise this year. For those who did, the average increase was just two per cent, far below the 4.4 per cent rate of inflation.

 

In further good news, the think-tank also predicted that interest rates would stay below two per cent until at least 2015, meaning mortgage payments will not rise substantially. The Bank of England’s base rate is currently 0.5 per cent.

Shehan Mohamed, CEBR economist, said: “We forecast an average of 110,000 new homes to be built every year over the medium term.

“This is significantly lower than the 225,000 homes that need to be created every year to keep pace with population growth and the trend towards reduced household sizes.”

Douglas McWilliams, the think-tank’s chief executive, added: “The housing shortage is likely to push prices upwards.” Samantha Baden, analyst at FindaProperty.com, said: “The CEBR’s ­predictions are not surprising given the pressures on the housing market.

 

/more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/266056/SHOCK-RISE-IN-HOUSE-PRICES

 

This is nothing more than a frigging forecast.

There no real news here.

I'd love to bet against this. I will pay GBP1,000 for every 1% prices rise over 13%, if the pay me GBP1,000 for every 1% they fall short of their 14% forecast.

 

If they are right, they collect a nice and easy GBP1,000

 

SHAME, shame, shame... Shame on Fools

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjcLo6NYca0

"You got me where you want me.

I'm nothing but your fool."

 

The article closes with these classic three misinformation quotes:

“It is particularly welcome for people who don’t have enough pensions savings as they will be able to make money from their property.

“Next year’s Olympic Games will also give the housing market a boost.

“Property is a good investment in the long term and now is a good time to buy.”

 

Buy in a chain, and you have a "chain of fools."

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BARRATT / BDEV is vulnerable ... update

BDEV2011.gif.jpg

... as is the UK Property market

After 3 months, we can see the accuracy of the BDEV comment

BDEVaug19.gif.jpg

 

The slide to new lows is hardly foreshadowing a "surging" UK property market.

There's a real possibility that the UK property market is set to fall off the cliff.

And those Upbeat Headlines are nothing more than "damage control" by those with vested interest.

 

"Stick a fork in it!"

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While the Express spews out Bullish Spin (and undermines any credibility it may have had),

Zoopla speaks reality - enhancing its own credibility

 

40% HAVE CUT (at least once) - and that number is growing

 

 

Zoopla.co.uk: Property Asking Prices Discounted to Highest Level in Over a Year

 

LONDON, August 19, 2011 -- /PRNewswire/ --

 

-According to Zoopla.co.uk, 2 in 5 properties on the market today have had their price lowered at least once; the average price reduction by sellers is over £18,500-

 

More current sellers have reduced the asking price of their home than at any time in the last year, according to property website Zoopla.co.uk. Two in five (38.6%) of all properties currently for sale in Britain have had their asking prices reduced at least once since coming onto the market, up from 37% three months ago, and well ahead of the 32% one year ago.

 

Even properties over £1 million, where the market has been most resilient, have seen more asking price reductions. Of all £1 million+ properties on the market, 27% have had their price reduced at least once, up from 25% three months ago and significantly higher than the 22% one year ago.

 

Zoopla.co.uk, which offers a unique feature allowing users to hunt for bargains by sorting properties for sale on its website by those that have been most-reduced in price, reveals that sellers have been forced to reduce prices by £18,597 (7.13%) on average in an effort to attract buyers. The average price reduction is now £2,200 more than one year ago when the average discount from the original asking price was 6.1%.

 

And the north-south divide continues to widen in the property market. Sellers in the north are being forced to reduce asking prices by much more than their counterparts in the south. Northern towns and cities dominate the list of places with the highest average price reductions.

 

Sellers in Bolton are suffering the most, having been forced to reduce the original asking price by 8.6% on average. Glasgow (8.2%) and Newcastle-upon-Tyne (8.2%) complete the top three, while other major northern cities like Liverpool are also in the top ten. Conversely, house prices in the south-east have remained more immune to reductions where properties in Chelmsford (5.5%) have the lowest average discount and the list also includes other prominent south-east areas like London (6.3%) and Croydon (5.6%).

 

London has the lowest proportion of price-reduced homes in the UK (32.4%), serving to emphasise its detachment from the rest of the market. Meanwhile, in Stockport, nearly half (47.8%) of all properties for sale have been reduced in price since coming onto the market, closely followed by Huddersfield (46.3%) and Chesterfield (45.8%).

 

Nicholas Leeming, Business Development Director of Zoopla.co.uk, said, "Vendors continue to have to lower prices due to weak buyer demand. Sluggish economic growth has hit buyer confidence and tight-fisted lenders are currently making it impossible for swathes of would-be buyers to benefit from the price reductions. For those who can get mortgages, now is as good a time as there has been in over a year to search for a new property."

 

A list of price reductions in 50 key British cities/towns can be found here: http://www.zoopla.co.uk/pricereduction

 

 

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/19/3848076/zooplacouk-property-asking-prices.html#ixzz1VX9EiJeW

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In an effort to create a new "chain of fools", here comes the Express...

 

Actually, they are just reporting estimates from the CEBR, (who happen to have a very good record :lol: ).

 

While the Express spews out Bullish Spin (and undermines any credibility it may have had),

Zoopla speaks reality - enhancing its own credibility

 

40% HAVE CUT (at least once) - and that number is growing

 

Just means they were asking too much before.

 

A house is worth what someone will pay for it. If it doesn't sell, reduce the price. If you want to sell quick before the depths of this winter, reduce it more.

 

That or keep it for four more years and sell it for 14% more :lol:

 

Simple.

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The slide to new lows is hardly foreshadowing a "surging" UK property market.

There's a real possibility that the UK property market is set to fall off the cliff.

And those Upbeat Headlines are nothing more than "damage control" by those with vested interest.

 

"Stick a fork in it!"

 

Yep, and the government has no fantasy bullets left. All that has happened to over leveraged mortgage holders in the last 3 years is a squeeze from the opposite direction, as living costs rose while real wages fell. The bottom line is they still can't afford the house!

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Yep, and the government has no fantasy bullets left. All that has happened to over leveraged mortgage holders in the last 3 years is a squeeze from the opposite direction, as living costs rose while real wages fell. The bottom line is they still can't afford the house!

 

Oh there are plenty of magic bullets left.

 

You are forgetting the huge mortgage write offs occurring now in the US and Eire, 50% debt reductions ARE occurring in over-indebted households.

 

Then there is the true debt jubilee,

 

And now comes Extreme QE! :blink:

 

The Bank of England could engage in an extreme form of quantitative easing.

 

It could purchase a sizeable amount of British government debt and then announce that the debt was being cancelled, that it never needed to be repaid.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14589325

 

 

After 3 months, we can see the accuracy of the BDEV comment

 

Pah, hasn't fell anythinglike as much as the banks! :lol:

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Oh there are plenty of magic bullets left.

 

You are forgetting the huge mortgage write offs occurring now in the US and Eire, 50% debt reductions ARE occurring in over-indebted households.

 

Then there is the true debt jubilee,

 

And now comes Extreme QE! :blink:

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14589325

 

 

 

 

Pah, hasn't fell anything like as much as the banks! :lol:

 

These bullets will directly compromise the currency involved. Their impact is too obvious and direct for them to be considered fantasy material.

 

Still, I'm sure they will happen nonetheless. Primarily because desperation will make those in charge turn a blind eye to the consequences. This is the road to those extreme dow/housing/anything else:gold ratios becoming reality.

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These bullets will directly compromise the currency involved. Their impact is too obvious and direct for them to be considered fantasy material.

 

Still, I'm sure they will happen nonetheless. Primarily because desperation will make those in charge turn a blind eye to the consequences. This is the road to those extreme dow/housing/anything else:gold ratios becoming reality.

 

Indeed, until they ban gold :ph34r:

 

(It has been tried before)

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Pah, hasn't fell anythinglike as much as the banks! :lol:

 

You must be loaded up to the gills in bdev now right JD?

Thursday and Friday action took us well in to your buy zone.

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Does anyone have a spreadsheet with Monthly Halifax HPI data going back to 2007? I can only find quarterly on the Lloyds website.

 

Found it. I somehow missed it in the many pages of the Halifax Historical Prices spreadsheet.

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You must be loaded up to the gills in bdev now right JD?

Thursday and Friday action took us well in to your buy zone.

 

Now who was it that first said "As the facts change, so too does my opinion". Churchill?

 

As I'm sure you would agree, we have had (and possibly are still in) a full market crash.

 

So, as I said on the UK house price thread about BDEV on Friday morning...

 

If the whole market hadn't tanked, I would be looking to buy around these levels.

 

As it is, I will need BDEV to be ~40-45p before dipping the toe in now

 

Much more value to be had looking at Aviva, Xstrata, RDSB etc.

 

When there are market moves like this, I change my target prices, what do you do?

 

Looking now, I think I might grab some if they get near 50p (If I have any money left from buying my favourites that is ;) ).

 

Crash = Opportunities.

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