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UK House prices: News & Views

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Now who was it that first said "As the facts change, so too does my opinion". Churchill?

Crash = Opportunities.

Bigger Crash = Bigger Opportunities,

so long as you hold onto your money

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Does anyone have a spreadsheet with Monthly Halifax HPI data going back to 2007? I can only find quarterly on the Lloyds website.

I see that you found it, but it is worth remembering these link:

http://tinyurl.com/GEI-data

http://tinyurl.com/HPC-data

(they lead to the same place : My Housing price data thread)

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Bigger Crash = Bigger Opportunities,

so long as you hold onto your money

 

Very true Dr. B, and a fair bit of powder is being kept dry.

 

Keynes.

 

I knew you'd know :D and as I was a touch sozzled last night, I thought I should mention my favourite Churchill quotation, when, on being told by Bessie Braddock MP: "Winston, You're drunk!" he replied "Bessie, You're ugly. But in the morning I shall be sober."

 

Classic :lol:

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Now who was it that first said "As the facts change, so too does my opinion". Churchill?

 

As I'm sure you would agree, we have had (and possibly are still in) a full market crash.

 

So, as I said on the UK house price thread about BDEV on Friday morning...

 

 

 

When there are market moves like this, I change my target prices, what do you do?

 

Looking now, I think I might grab some if they get near 50p (If I have any money left from buying my favourites that is ;) ).

 

Crash = Opportunities.

 

Chillax JD just a friendly query :rolleyes:

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Chillax JD just a friendly query :rolleyes:

 

Sorry DS, I'm cool, (it was meant to be a happy reply, what with all these opportunities, if I can get them at 50p, I'll be even happier!).

 

I guess it's just all these negative waves about.

 

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These bullets will directly compromise the currency involved. Their impact is too obvious and direct for them to be considered fantasy material.

 

Still, I'm sure they will happen nonetheless. Primarily because desperation will make those in charge turn a blind eye to the consequences. This is the road to those extreme dow/housing/anything else:gold ratios becoming reality.

 

Right on cue, and it's not just landlords being bailed out now.

 

Ireland is to consider a proposal to write off up to 6 billion euros (5.25 billion pounds) worth of mortgage debt in a bid to boost the economy, the country's housing minister said

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Ireland-mull-mortgage-reuters_molt-121866087.html?x=0

 

Coming soon to an economy near you?

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Very true Dr. B, and a fair bit of powder is being kept dry.

 

 

 

I knew you'd know :D and as I was a touch sozzled last night, I thought I should mention my favourite Churchill quotation, when, on being told by Bessie Braddock MP: "Winston, You're drunk!" he replied "Bessie, You're ugly. But in the morning I shall be sober."

 

Classic :lol:

Yeah, he was quick on his feet with that one... can't have been too sozzled....... :lol:

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It is a sad but unavoidable truth that the principal factor that will guide the actions of those who lead us is May 7th 2015.

Yep, Election.

 

(Coincides with the express headline too)

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(maybe they can put Benefits tenants in these empty towers):

 

The slow dawning of reality - This article in today's SCMP may help:

 

Tenants scarce for skyscapers

 

Tuesday, 23 August 2011 (5 hours ago)

 

"A boom in central London skyscraper construction risks being undermined by global economic woes that have turned speculative developments into gambles due to sparse tenant appetites...

The Shard, the Pinnacle*, the Walaki Talkie, the Cheesegrate and the tower at 100 Bishopgate are at varying stages of construction... with Heron Tower: Together they will add 3.7 million sf of office space by 2015."

. . .

Bulletpoints:

============

+ Companies are hesitant to sign leases for new offices

 

+ "The phone has stopped ringing in the City market, but please don't put my name to that," one broker said.

 

+ Overs are more upbeat: "Average rents for the best offices was likely to hit GBP-66 psf in 2015, up from GBP-50 now," said property broker Savills.

 

+ Job cuts that financial services companies and banks have announced would further weaken the hand of developers.

 

+ About 4.9 mn sf of office space would come on the market by 2014

=== === ===

 

*There are 9 structures actively under construction in London that will rise at least 100 metres (328 ft) in height. The tallest of these at 310 m (1,017 ft) is Shard London Bridge, which began construction in February 2009. The next tallest is the 288-metre "Pinnacle" which will form the centrepiece of the City skyscraper cluster.

 

 

"Architecture must surprise and delight."

"The projecty is destined to be a great success." (haha - sure it will)

 

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2012 Olympics- could be racing in with a Gold medal winning Property Crash

 

Heres' another:

 

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Lovely views. But Renzo Piano has played an unfortunate role in designing projects just at the end of the economic cycle which inspired them. Kansai Intl Airport for one. A stunning work of art and a beautiful floating white elephant of a project. What a legacy! He's like the kiss of death.

 

Kunstler has a lot to say about these high rises.

 

Shame about the name, too. The Shard. Surely there's enough time to plaster the thing in solar panel glass micro?

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There are 9 structures actively under construction in London that will rise at least 100 metres (328 ft) in height. The tallest of these at 310 m (1,017 ft) is Shard London Bridge, which began construction in February 2009. The next tallest is the 288-metre "Pinnacle" which will form the centrepiece of the City skyscraper cluster.

 

I went up the ICC in HOng Kong yesterday to the 118 floor where there is a bar.

Wonderful views of the city on a clear day.

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I went up the ICC in HOng Kong yesterday to the 118 floor where there is a bar.

Wonderful views of the city on a clear day.

And I though my view from the 50th floor in West Kowloon was high !

Actually, I have been up to the bar on ICC-110 and the view of Central etc is fantastic, but you can only see about 180 degrees.

 

I am keen to see the 360 view someday

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There's always urban farming.

clepsydra-urban-farm.jpeg

Vertical-Farming-2.jpg

What's the crop?

They look like fruit trees. That's an expensive way to grow some fruit

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THEY FELL IN LOVE WITH A HOUSE... now they are "prisoners of love"

 

The property ladder can be a trap

 

This is money: Low house prices trap a quarter of all mortgaged homeowners

 

A quarter of all mortgaged homeowners find it almost impossible to move house or take out a new deal. Figures from trade body the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) show that more than one in twelve borrowers — some 827,000 — are in negative equity, i.e. meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth. Yet a further 1.7 million, roughly 17 pc of mortgage holders, have less than 10 pc equity in their properties, according to Money Mail research. Many of these people took out mortgages with just a small deposit before the credit crunch, and are now trapped because their house price has fallen. Henry Pryor, an independent estate agent, says: ‘These people are prisoners in their own home and may be stuck on an expensive mortgage deal.’

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THEY FELL IN LOVE WITH A HOUSE... now they are "prisoners of love"

 

The property ladder can be a trap

 

This is money: Low house prices trap a quarter of all mortgaged homeowners

 

A quarter of all mortgaged homeowners find it almost impossible to move house or take out a new deal. Figures from trade body the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) show that more than one in twelve borrowers — some 827,000 — are in negative equity, i.e. meaning they owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth. Yet a further 1.7 million, roughly 17 pc of mortgage holders, have less than 10 pc equity in their properties, according to Money Mail research. Many of these people took out mortgages with just a small deposit before the credit crunch, and are now trapped because their house price has fallen. Henry Pryor, an independent estate agent, says: ‘These people are prisoners in their own home and may be stuck on an expensive mortgage deal.’

 

I wonder how many of them want to move?

 

Could be a nice prison B) so, if there is no requirement to move, and if they can afford the mortgage, then, as it is probably cheaper than renting the same property (as it is in the vast majority of the UK now) then what's the problem?

 

Just asking.

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I wonder how many of them want to move?

Could be a nice prison B) so, if there is no requirement to move, and if they can afford the mortgage, then, as it is probably cheaper than renting the same property (as it is in the vast majority of the UK now) then what's the problem?

Just asking.

THey can stay put, and watch their remaining wealth erode...

 

 

Wealth destruction the new normal

Allister Heath, Wednesday 24th August 2011

 

WEALTH preservation is now the name of the game in the West. The challenge, for most people, is not to make more money: it is to try and preserve what they have. Declining equity and property prices, ultra-low interest rates, lowish pay rises, elevated inflation and increasing taxes are combining to squeeze nearly everybody. This shouldn’t come as a surprise: the UK economy shrank by about six per cent during the recession; and there has been far too much borrowing from future expected production to fund consumption today. A country that produces less (which is what it means to have a smaller economy) must consume less; the value of its land and companies will also be worth less.

 

There is wealth destruction almost everywhere one looks. Inflation on the retail price index is at five per cent: the real value of everything is falling by that amount. Take cash. To beat inflation, a basic rate taxpayer needs to find a savings account paying 5.50 per cent, a 40 per cent taxpayer needs to find an account paying at least 7.33 per cent, and somebody paying the 50 per cent tax rate...well, they shouldn’t even bother. Basic rate taxpayers can choose from just eight accounts that negate the effects of tax and inflation, all of which are fixed-rate ISAs; in the main, it is a disaster for savers, especially for those who have cash that is not eligible for tax protection and who pay higher rates of tax. Moneyfacts calculates that the effect of inflation on savings means that £10,000 invested five years ago allowing for average interest and tax at 20 per cent would have the spending power of just £9,374 today.

 

Average total pay is increasing at 2.6 per cent a year, which translates into an annual real pay cut of around 2.4 per cent. No wonder an Ipsos Mori poll for the Resolution Foundation reveals that just 48 per cent of people in low-to-middle income households have cash left over at the end of each month. Just 27 per cent of these make monthly savings. The middle classes are also being hammered.

 

What about property? Prices in London, especially in prime areas, are holding up or even increasing as a result of global demand from investors keen to protect themselves against instability. But across the UK, they are down 0.3 per cent over the past year – which in real terms is a drop of over five per cent. Residential property in the UK as a whole has further to fall, especially in real terms; prices have yet to readjust to earnings.

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I wonder how many of them want to move?

 

Could be a nice prison B) so, if there is no requirement to move, and if they can afford the mortgage, then, as it is probably cheaper than renting the same property (as it is in the vast majority of the UK now) then what's the problem?

 

Just asking.

You're starting to sound like an estate agent in disguise again, Mr Doe...or Cassius.

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THey can stay put, and watch their remaining wealth erode...

 

 

Wealth destruction the new normal

Allister Heath, Wednesday 24th August 2011

 

WEALTH preservation is now the name of the game in the West. The challenge, for most people, is not to make more money: it is to try and preserve what they have. Declining equity and property prices, ultra-low interest rates, lowish pay rises, elevated inflation and increasing taxes are combining to squeeze nearly everybody. This shouldnt come as a surprise: the UK economy shrank by about six per cent during the recession; and there has been far too much borrowing from future expected production to fund consumption today. A country that produces less (which is what it means to have a smaller economy) must consume less; the value of its land and companies will also be worth less.

 

There is wealth destruction almost everywhere one looks. Inflation on the retail price index is at five per cent: the real value of everything is falling by that amount. Take cash. To beat inflation, a basic rate taxpayer needs to find a savings account paying 5.50 per cent, a 40 per cent taxpayer needs to find an account paying at least 7.33 per cent, and somebody paying the 50 per cent tax rate...well, they shouldnt even bother. Basic rate taxpayers can choose from just eight accounts that negate the effects of tax and inflation, all of which are fixed-rate ISAs; in the main, it is a disaster for savers, especially for those who have cash that is not eligible for tax protection and who pay higher rates of tax. Moneyfacts calculates that the effect of inflation on savings means that £10,000 invested five years ago allowing for average interest and tax at 20 per cent would have the spending power of just £9,374 today.

 

Average total pay is increasing at 2.6 per cent a year, which translates into an annual real pay cut of around 2.4 per cent. No wonder an Ipsos Mori poll for the Resolution Foundation reveals that just 48 per cent of people in low-to-middle income households have cash left over at the end of each month. Just 27 per cent of these make monthly savings. The middle classes are also being hammered.

 

What about property? Prices in London, especially in prime areas, are holding up or even increasing as a result of global demand from investors keen to protect themselves against instability. But across the UK, they are down 0.3 per cent over the past year which in real terms is a drop of over five per cent. Residential property in the UK as a whole has further to fall, especially in real terms; prices have yet to readjust to earnings.

 

So according to that, if you are a UK tax payer, then it actually makes sense to put your money into property :lol:

 

(Well it does according to those figures :ph34r: )

 

You're starting to sound like an estate agent in disguise again, Mr Doe...or Cassius.

 

Now now Jake, if I were an estate agent, I would have written....

 

But but but, none of them want to move as they have their castle and cannot be kicked out by unscrupulous landlords etc who keep raising their rents!!

 

It's not a prison, it's a castle! They don't have to move, none of them, ever ever, and their mortgages are so cheap they don't even notice the payments going out of their accounts each month, and soon it will be all theirs! To rent would be to throw money away and pay the mortgage of the BTL landlord who is cruel to old people, children and animals.

 

 

Just telling

 

In trying to provide balance, to an unbalanced site, one should not be accused of being an EA.

 

That, sir, is the ultimate insult and I have a good mind to report you to the mods! :D

 

PS Who is Cassius?

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