UK House prices: News & Views

[John Doe]

Wouldn't be surprised if London prices and gold fall next year as things start to bottom out, QE3 or 4 comes to an end and inflation falls.

 

 

Back to the smaller houses stuff

 

Architects attack 'shoebox' homes

Many new UK houses are "shameful shoebox homes" which fail to provide the required minimum space, says the Royal Institute of British Architects.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14907914

 

Smallest in Europe (which are apparently smaller than US)

[TestIcicle]

Back to the smaller houses stuff

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14907914

 

Smallest in Europe (which are apparently smaller than US)

 

Did you mean http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14909066 ?

 

About time someone started speaking up about this sort of thing!

 

I did also see the Telegraph's "Hands of our Land" campaign:

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/hands-off-our-land/8761056/Planning-reforms-green-belt-will-have-no-protection-despite-promises-of-ministers.html

[John Doe]

Did you mean http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14909066 ?

 

About time someone started speaking up about this sort of thing!

 

I did also see the Telegraph's "Hands of our Land" campaign:

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/hands-off-our-land/8761056/Planning-reforms-green-belt-will-have-no-protection-despite-promises-of-ministers.html

 

Oops yes, Freudian slip

[John Doe]

In other news

 

The number of people unemployed in the UK rose by 80,000 to 2.51 million in the three months to July, official figures have shown.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14912236

 

and, at the same time

 

The latest figures for public sector employment show a fall of 110,000 between March and June to 6.04 million.

 

So, actually it seems 30,000 net new jobs (not public sector) were created over the same period.

 

That should cheer everyone up

[Van]

duplicate

[Van]

Rents are still rising strongly:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14934316

 

"London had seen the biggest rent rises in England and Wales in the last year, rising by 6.6%, followed by a 6% rise in the West Midlands and a 4.3% increase in the North East of England."

Of course you can argue vested-interest reporting and all that and how rents might fall in the future, but just about all the evidence points to rents rising strongly at the present which is a key component that will underpin house prices currently.

[John Doe]

Rents are still rising strongly:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14934316

 

"London had seen the biggest rent rises in England and Wales in the last year, rising by 6.6%, followed by a 6% rise in the West Midlands and a 4.3% increase in the North East of England."

Of course you can argue vested-interest reporting and all that and how rents might fall in the future, but just about all the evidence points to rents rising strongly at the present which is a key component that will underpin house prices currently.

 

Rents up, prices down.

 

Money cheap. Any ideas?

 

Just kidding

[Van]

The governments needs to massively ramp up its housebuilding programme. The cost of housing is too high (both renting and buying) compared to other countries. Planning restrictions need to be lifted - if that means changing laws and building on greenbelt land then so be it. I used to be of the opinion that there was no real shortage of housing as rents were not rising, but now that rents are ever increasing I've changed this view - the UK desperately needs more houses to be built. There is a very real shortage of housing, as our housing stock is not keeping pace with our population growth. The UK economy is in the doldrums, yet the free market is not allowed to operate to build houses where there is an obvious demand for them. Why not lift the restrictions, let the market do its work - reallocation of resources to will provide an economic boost and lower the cost price of housing, which will be good for everyone in the long run.

 

Despite our supposed affluence, most young people cannot afford to live comfortably by themselves - instead, house sharing has become the norm. Yet in other countries this is not the case, and people can afford to live comfortably by themselves on much more modest incomes. As long as we allow the current situation to persist then the social unrest will continue to grow.

[TestIcicle]

The governments needs to massively ramp up its housebuilding programme. The cost of housing is too high (both renting and buying) compared to other countries.

So what? They'll keep squeezing till the pips squeak. I'm waiting for another "you've never had it so good" moment. Followed by more riots.

 

Planning restrictions need to be lifted - if that means changing laws and building on greenbelt land then so be it.

 

Won't happen without a fight.

 

 

...the UK desperately needs more houses to be built. There is a very real shortage of housing, as our housing stock is not keeping pace with our population growth. The UK economy is in the doldrums, yet the free market is not allowed to operate to build houses where there is an obvious demand for them. Why not lift the restrictions, let the market do its work - reallocation of resources to will provide an economic boost and lower the cost price of housing, which will be good for everyone in the long run.

Despite my cynicism above, this is enlightening (once you get over the paranoid headline): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-14916238

 

"[had there been no green belt] you might have ended up with an entirely urbanised south-east of England. Our cities could have sprawled out like Los Angeles, and because there would have been no incentive to develop brownfield land the inner cities might have decayed like in Detroit."

 

Others are less convinced. Critics of the system point out that 9.8% of land in England is developed compared with 13.2% in Germany, a country without a green belt equivalent.

And even more of surprise to my cynical self was this:

 

The question of what the UK countryside would look like without it may be answered in the years ahead by Northern Ireland, which in 2010 replaced its green belt with a new set of planning instruments.

If they did it, what are the odds of it happening here despite the Tegraph NIMBY efforts?

 

Here's another nicely rational take on "the rather juvenile" argument of OH NOES THEY'S CONCRETING OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE WTF: http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/going-bananas-over-the-countryside/6517759.blog

 

Despite our supposed affluence, most young people cannot afford to live comfortably by themselves - instead, house sharing has become the norm. Yet in other countries this is not the case, and people can afford to live comfortably by themselves on much more modest incomes. As long as we allow the current situation to persist then the social unrest will continue to grow.

You'd've thought so, wouldn't you?

 

[edited to include the Inside Housing article reference)

 

Ha! not heard this acronym before: are you a BANANA?

 

 

*Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone

[Van]

The green belt is an outdated and idealistic luxury that as a country we can no longer afford.

[John Doe]

The green belt is an outdated and idealistic luxury that as a country we can no longer afford.

 

There was a map I saw somewhere recently showing the green belt. Just looked like a ring around most cities. Nothing to stop them (properly) planning and building a few new cities instead. Plenty of spare land outside the green belt.

[John Doe]

At last!

 

No more EA bull?

 

Estate agents warned by Office of Fair Trading over misleading claims

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Estate-agents-warned-Office-tele-1683406898.html

 

And before you say anything, no, I wasn't warned, as contrary to the belief of some I am not (nor ever have been) an EA!

 

I won't mention any names, as that would be indiscreet (Wouldn't it Meralti.... Ooops )

[Chartered Surveyor]

London update

 

Top end houses/flats are setting new highs and at volume. The flood of work on my plate and the prices being achieved is breath taking. Are we at the start of a crack up boom as the money just keeps on flooding into residential property.

[drbubb]

At last!

No more EA bull?

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Estate-agents-warned-Office-tele-1683406898.html

"That might include a situation where a house is freehold but the garage is leasehold, a property which comes with shared ownership of a parking area and path, or if a property needs major repairs, said the OFT.

 

Famously, one office of Kent estate agents hit the headlines two years ago for failing to mention a "not to be missed" fisherman's cottage on the Dungeness nature reserve was fewer than 80 yards from the perimeter of two power stations. The agents argued that basic internet research would have alerted any would-be buyers to the property's neighbours.

 

The OFT also warned agents against leaving details of properties they have sold on their website or posted in their office window for a long period of time, creating a false impression that they are selling more properties.

 

The watchdog added that agents giving "misleading" information could be failing to meet the relevant consumer protection law risking fines or even prison."

 

DOES THIS APPLY to foreign branches of UK agents?

If so, there's trouble ahead in HK

[drbubb]

Rightmove: Act now to move before Christmas

 

% Change in month % Change Past Year Ave house price

Sep HPI 0.7% 1.5% £233,139

Aug HPI -2.1% -0.3% £231,543

 

Key points

New sellers’ average asking prices up by 0.7% on the month, but 3.0% down over the summer period

 

Two deadlines should focus the minds of frustrated sellers:

- Christmas is 98 days away but average time on the market is 94 days, so buyers and sellers need to get serious now if they are to tie up a deal before the festive season;

 

- first-time buyer stamp duty relief is due to finish on 25th March 2012.

 

Market recovery appears as far away as ever three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, as key metrics are little changed:

- new sellers again at 23,000 per week as lack of confidence and inability to move remains;

 

- prices up by 2.5% in three years, compared with 16.4% in the previous three year period;

 

- unsold stock per estate agency branch still stuck in the high 70s.

 

While new planning proposals may boost housing market activity in the longer term, initiatives supporting mortgage lending such as FirstBuy are the more immediate requirement.

 

/see:

[Van]

London update

 

Top end houses/flats are setting new highs and at volume. The flood of work on my plate and the prices being achieved is breath taking. Are we at the start of a crack up boom as the money just keeps on flooding into residential property.

 

Interesting, and I think not entirely surprising, given that we have pretty much had a green-flag for ZIRP for several years to come, and recent stock market turmoil just reinforces people's willingness to put money into property instead of stocks, even without the expectation of capital appreciation.

[John Doe]

Interesting, and I think not entirely surprising, given that we have pretty much had a green-flag for ZIRP for several years to come, and recent stock market turmoil just reinforces people's willingness to put money into property instead of stocks, even without the expectation of capital appreciation.

 

Indeed, compared to the price of "some" assets, "some" property is starting to look reasonable.

[Chartered Surveyor]

A further point to add are the cycles over the year. Just before each quarter there is a spike in market activity. I can only conclude that next month is when the City wizz kids get their third yearly bonus. I am informed that they are juicy bonuses each time although the media will never report this, hence the booming property prices. I must add that there are markets within markets in London although the ripple effect is starting to take hold.

[Bosworth]

London update

 

Top end houses/flats are setting new highs and at volume. The flood of work on my plate and the prices being achieved is breath taking. Are we at the start of a crack up boom as the money just keeps on flooding into residential property.

 

Nonsense in my bit of leafy N2 London. Prices have until recently been very sticky - above 2007 peak in many cases.

 

In the last few months I have started to see some real falls on properties that are not "perfect". Some even taking >6 months to sell which is unheard of around these parts.

 

From why I can see, London is starting to wake up and smell the reality.

[Jake]

Well how about this everyone? Japan residential and commercial down for the 20th year running. Depopulation and no immigration policies signal this beast will fall and fall. Enjoy!

 

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20110921a1.html

[John Doe]

So the Fed going back into the mortgage market (MBS). (Don't think markets are too happy though, not quite the QE they were looking for).

 

Wonder if the BoE's new QE round will follow a similar pattern (and even a twist and shout?)

[callmejoe]

In Clif High's latest report, he forecasts:

 

The data suggests that [globe girdling corporations] will [relocate] from the [american anglo sphere] to many other areas around the planet. This [flight] is shown within the GlobalPop entity as being so [silent], at first, that by the time (near term future, say early next year) that it is [officially noticed] in the [msm (propaganda press)], it will have had [very significant impacts] on the [pricing (of) apartments/real estate] in the [money centers] along the [east coast] of the [usa]. The data shows that (soon-to-unfold)[collapsing prices for 'city of london' property] will be a [precursor] to the same effect showing up [across the pond].

[drbubb]

In Clif High's latest report, he forecasts:

The data shows that (soon-to-unfold)[collapsing prices for 'city of london' property] will be a [precursor] to the same effect showing up [across the pond].

London and New York City prices to fall as banks shrink?

A plausible scenario. HK prices are already drifting lower, as government calming measures take effect.

 

Transaction volumes are way, way down... and banks here have reacted by pushing up their spreads,

in effect saying: "We need a bigger spread, if we are to be making more loans now."

 

I wonder how long this "greed campaign" will last? HSBC has also announced they will shed 3,000 jobs here.

[John Doe]

So the Fed going back into the mortgage market (MBS). (Don't think markets are too happy though, not quite the QE they were looking for).

 

Wonder if the BoE's new QE round will follow a similar pattern (and even a twist and shout?)

 

Seems they are now calling it "Twist and Doubt"!

[Van]

The Halifax measure of ASHE price/earnings is getting towards its mean level:

 

Mean since 1983: 4.04

Peak: 5.8 to 1

Current (Aug 2011): 4.38 to 1

 

1 Standard deviation is +/- 0.78.

 

Some random observations-

 

- Recent earnings growth has been subdued as we know; 2.2% in the last 12 month, 1.4% in the 12 months before that, and just 0.3% in the months before that.

- Consider that a 3% rise in earning coupled with another 5% off house prices down to avg £154k will return us to the mean. I can see that happening in the next 12-18 months.

- There was a golden-period of cheap houses between 1995-1999 where the p/e averaged just around 3.13

- You could argue that two housing bubbles in this data period have pushed the mean up to higher than it should be, but this is 29 years' worth of data, which is longer than a standard mortgage term and as long as many peoples' expected working lives.