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UK House prices: News & Views


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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8784306/Cardiff-after-dark-Maciej-Dakowicz-photographs-the-nightlife-of-the-Welsh-capital.html'>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8784306/Cardiff-after-dark-Maciej-Dakowicz-photographs-the-nightlife-of-the-Welsh-capital.html

But the UK might not be worth a punt at that price. ?.

 

 

 

 

Is this the UK these days? Has it come to this?

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8784306/Cardiff-after-dark-Maciej-Dakowicz-photographs-the-nightlife-of-the-Welsh-capital.html

 

Perhaps not such a good destination anymore.

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When?

 

And what will be the 'price' in pounds I wonder. 50-100K/oz, /Av house.

 

I' be happy with that scenario in theory. But the UK might not be worth a punt at that price. ?.

 

What sort of world is GBP 50K gold? First of all I'd like to see USD 5 or 10k/oz. Then we might know more of where we are going.

 

Hi Jake,

 

IMHO, I doubt we will even see 5000$/oz. The game is likely to be up before gold gets there. We are more likely to see Prechter on TV and his 200$/oz gold. But at that 200$/oz price try taking delivery. There will be GLD readily willing to sell their fractionally reserved paper or if you kick up a fuss they will settle you in cash if you are redeeming your paper and they will direct you to the closest physical market - Of this statement I am 100% certain. We shall see and time will tell.

 

I make this statement after reasonable study of A/FOA archives.

 

This is a email I received from FOFOA.

 

 

Another Thoughts;

 

"The BIS and other various governments that developed this trade (PAPER GOLD) , thought that the paper gold forward market would have allowed the gold industry to expand production some five times over! Don't ask where they got this, as they are the same people that bring us government finance and such. But, without a major increase in gold supply, the paper created by this "gold control operation" will either be paid by, 1. new supply. 2. the central banks. 3. rollover existing. 4. cash? 5. or total default! As the Asians started buying up everything last year ( 97 ) , number 5 and 5 started looking like the answer! When the CBs started selling into this black hole of demand, the discussion of #5 started in their rooms also."

Regarding synthetic supply, it is the same as credit money—"our money"—being a synthetic supply of base money. Same thing! Only there's no Fed that can create "gold base" with the click of a mouse. That doesn't mean the BBs are net short paper gold any more than the banks are net short dollars. But you can still have a run on the reserves, and without a lender of last resort, hello Freegold! You can also have a lightning-fast and unexpected exponential rise in the "leverage factor" or "reserve ratio" of these BBs without them being net short:

"What we have here is an explosion in the bullion banks' physical leverage factor, not through an increase in lending this time (the lending is actually declining), but through customer withdrawal of reserves, with no physical backstop. Even a bank with a conservative leverage factor can experience a bank-busting, system-crashing run. Public confidence is the only thing that stands in the way. This is how a classic bank run runs."

 

A Bullion Bank has X amount of ounce-denominated liabilities offset by Y physical reserves plus Z amount of ounce-denominated claims on others. So X=Y+Z. If the holders of X run on Y, that leaves only Z offsetting the remaining X holders. That's a big bank holiday and Freegold party!

BB ounce-denominated liabilities (paper gold) are apparently being used as a currency trade. It was this revelation that immediately preceded the appearance of ANOTHER.

Here are a few comments by other people prior to ANOTHER's first post:

"It is relevant to notice gold's average trading size per transaction, which was 29,140 ounces -- nearly one tonne per trade (32,150 oz. equivalent to a tonne). This is approximately $10 million per trade. This suggests (at least to me) the trades are non-Central Bank transactions - and more probable commercial operations related to CURRENCY TRADING. Interestingly, the average trading volume for ALL INTERNATIONAL CURRENCIES IS ABOUT $1.2 TRILLION PER DAY.

 

Viewing gold as a commodity may be mistaken, however. The LMBA revelations show that gold is a global currency of some substance and liquidity. So what affects the fundamentals of a currency? Usually Central Bank monetary policy. However, gold does not have a CB.

 

Remember, these huge volumes on the LBMA are NOT from hoarders.... these are the numbers of merchants using gold as a CURRENCY."

Red Baron

 

When ANOTHER wrote the following he was referring to the above (the full Red Baron series is linked in my blog sidebar):

Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 11:38

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

 

REIFY:

Check the "gold eagle site" under Red Barron ( LBMA ) .

 

Read everything and rethink your thoughts.

That was 1997. As we now know, those were just the clearing numbers. The BBs don't publish an M1 or M2 equivalent for "gold credit money." They only publish the average daily clearing volume, and now, with this document

LBMA

 

they released the total Loco London daily turnover which appears to be about ten times the clearing volume. That's not the total stock of paper gold, but the flow. That's all synthetic supply! And TONNES of it!

What size stock does that huge flow of thousands of tonnes per day imply? I don't know. How much physical do they have in reserve behind it (i.e., what is their de facto reserve ratio)? I don't know. Where did all those BB liabilities come from (i.e., what are the claims offsetting them)? I don't know. But you have to admit that a futures market (speaking of COMEX now, not the LBMA) is, by definition, a synthetic supply. If someone who could have bought 5 ounces of physical gold now buys control over 100 ounces of "future" gold (as in, not yet physically available), wouldn't you call that a synthetic supply as opposed to a physical supply?

And once you discover that most of those futures contracts are cash settled, you will come to understand that the "future" gold can just stay in the ground or wherever it was lying still. So it always was a synthetic supply from inception to settlement. The commoditization of gold in the '70s along with the vibrant commodities futures markets and forward sales that grew out of the '70s and '80s freed up the physical to flow where physical was still valued. Is that a big conspiracy? Or is it just the way things worked out?

 

 

 

Date: Tue Oct 07 1997 22:37

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:

 

Why did LBMA go public?

 

Ever notice how many important middle eastern people keep a residence in London. It's not because of the climate. The most powerful banks in the world today are the ones that trade oil and gold. It is in the "city" that the deals are done by people who understand "value"! Westerners should be happy that they do because the free flow of oil and gold has allowed this economic expansion to continue this past few years.

 

Understand that oil is still traded for a certain number of US$ but after the deal is done a certain amount of gold is also purchased "with the future flow of oil as collateral".

 

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Good news. The latest land registry figures show a 0.9 percent fall for October. That these were sales arranged during the summer suggests that there could be further falls for the rest of the year. :) If prices continue to fall at 3.2 percent a year then there is probably little difference in the cost between renting and buying at the moment.

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Good news. The latest land registry figures show a 0.9 percent fall for October. That these were sales arranged during the summer suggests that there could be further falls for the rest of the year. :) If prices continue to fall at 3.2 percent a year then there is probably little difference in the cost between renting and buying at the moment.

 

 

Excellent, explains last week announcement of lobotomization scheme for FTB.

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http://www.ftadviser.com/2011/11/28/mortgages/mortgage-data/housing-turnover-hits-year-low-sC62EdjvKlliITpUN97PEN/article.html

Housing turnover hits 40-year low

Hometrack reports falling turnover rates expected to continue into 2012, as data for 2011 points to 50 per cent downturn.

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In the olden days I might've posted this on HPC, but I too was banned.

 

It might be somewhat quiet on the old housing front, but it doesn't stop some agents' utterly futile efforts:

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31522936.html?premiumA=true

 

(via property bee)

 

History

date event

Mon Nov 28 21:44:07 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Place your bid on this fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house, within minutes of Purley Town Centre. All bids to be placed by 12pm Monday 28th November 5th December

 

Tue Nov 22 20:16:55 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Place your bid on this fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house, within minutes of Purley Town Centre. All bids to be placed by 12pm Monday 21st 28th November

 

Mon Nov 14 22:16:16 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Place your bid on this fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house house, within minutes of Purley Town Centre. Viewings will be between 12 & 1pm on the 5th November with all All bids to be placed by 12pm Monday 7th November 21st November

 

Mon Nov 14 22:14:12 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Place your bid on this fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house, house within minutes of Purley Town Centre. All Viewings will be between 12 & 1pm on the 5th November with all bids to be placed by 12pm Monday 14th November 7th November

 

Mon Nov 7 20:37:07 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Place your bid on this fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house, within minutes of Purley Town Centre. Viewings will be between 12 & 1pm on the 5th November with all All bids to be placed by 12pm Monday 7th November 14th November

 

Mon Oct 31 10:33:15 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Place your bid on this fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house house, within minutes of Purley Town Centre. Viewings will be between 12 & 1pm on the 5th November with all bids to be placed by 12pm Monday 7th November

 

Thu Oct 27 18:59:52 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Set back of Godstone Road and Place your bid on this three fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house just waiting within 1/2 mile minutes of Purley Town Centre you Centre. Viewings will find be between 12 & 1pm on the 5th November with all bids to be discovered. placed by 12pm Monday 7th November

 

Wed Oct 26 10:09:04 2011

 

Brief Description changed: Place your bid on WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Set back of Godstone Road and within minutes 1/2 mile of Purley town centre. Viewings Town Centre you will be between 12 & 1pm on the 5th November with all bids find this fantastic 3 three bedroom terrace house just waiting to be placed by 12pm Monday 7th November. discovered.

Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Best Bid'

 

Tue Oct 25 19:18:59 2011

 

Brief Description changed: WE FOUND IT - BELIEVE IT Set back of Godstone Road and Place your bid on this fantastic 3 bedroom terrace house just waiting within 1/2 mile minutes of Purley Town Centre you town centre. Viewings will find be between 12 & 1pm on the 5th November with all bids to be discovered. placed by 12pm Monday 7th November.

Price changed: £239,950 Offers in Excess of £220,000

 

Sun Oct 9 09:54:13 2011

 

Price changed: from '£244,950' to '£239,950'

 

Tue Sep 20 10:47:10 2011

 

Initial entry found.

 

That's right, keep changing the date of the deadline of the mythical bidding auction! Really, this sort of LYING behaviour ought to be banned.

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In the olden days I might've posted this on HPC, but I too was banned.

 

It might be somewhat quiet on the old housing front, but it doesn't stop some agents' utterly futile efforts:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31522936.html?premiumA=true

(via property bee)

That's right, keep changing the date of the deadline of the mythical bidding auction! Really, this sort of LYING behaviour ought to be banned.

"£239,950 Offers in Excess of £220,000"

I bet they would jump at £199,999 - but it is probably worth £170,000 or less

(image added):

28964_0320_HRT032000270_IMG_01_0000_max_620x414.JPG

LESS! Maybe £145,000, headed to £120,000

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Oh.

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Nov_2011.pdf

 

"• House prices increased by 0.4% in

November

• Price of a typical home is 1.6% higher than

one year ago"

 

After the fall yesterday from the Government statistics I had hoped for a price fall of around 5 percent for this winter but even that is looking unlikely. When one considers that renting is likely twice the price, or more, of the mortgage repayments then one has lost around 4 percent by not owning. In super low interest rate land, prices need to be falling by at least 4 percent a year for renting to make sense. And they are not falling.

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Is this the UK these days? Has it come to this?

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8784306/Cardiff-after-dark-Maciej-Dakowicz-photographs-the-nightlife-of-the-Welsh-capital.html

 

Perhaps not such a good destination anymore.

They would make such good tenants.

The EA's should organise a photo album to travel with the New Property shows in Hong Kong

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Oh.

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Nov_2011.pdf

 

"• House prices increased by 0.4% in

November

• Price of a typical home is 1.6% higher than

one year ago"

 

After the fall yesterday from the Government statistics I had hoped for a price fall of around 5 percent for this winter but even that is looking unlikely. When one considers that renting is likely twice the price, or more, of the mortgage repayments then one has lost around 4 percent by not owning. In super low interest rate land, prices need to be falling by at least 4 percent a year for renting to make sense. And they are not falling.

I have now given up on the Halifax & Nationwide figures as they are clearly unreliable and they have a vested interest. I "trust" the land reg figures which still has the average house at £200,000 meaning that gold needs to get to £2000 an ounce just to return to fair value, and anything beyond that is speculation.

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I have now given up on the Halifax & Nationwide figures as they are clearly unreliable and they have a vested interest. I "trust" the land reg figures which still has the average house at £200,000 meaning that gold needs to get to £2000 an ounce just to return to fair value, and anything beyond that is speculation.

 

Land reg, acadametrics and home.co.uk have always been more reliable IMHO.

 

However, Nationwide have tightened their lending criteria (they were always much tighter than most), so I would think this would result in them lending more to better "risks" and, as such, would skew the figures up somewhat (much like when only rich people can buy, which sends the "average" price up).

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Apparently Kirstie Allsop and Phil Spencer will be on my new street this week filming some new property porn program. Anyone got any messages they would like me to pass on if I see them? :)

 

I'm even thinking of getting a "welcoming" banner to drape on the outside wall of my house. Any suggestions for a slogan? :)

 

Cheers

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Apparently Kirstie Allsop and Phil Spencer will be on my new street this week filming some new property porn program. Anyone got any messages they would like me to pass on if I see them? :)

 

I'm even thinking of getting a "welcoming" banner to drape on the outside wall of my house. Any suggestions for a slogan? :)

 

Cheers

 

Yeah, ask her if she feels guilty for encouraging all those young, FTB'ers (now in negative equity), to overstretch themselves with huge mortgages, right as the market was peaking, and boisterously telling those that were having second thoughts that "if house prices fall, I will eat my hat". :angry:

 

Then ask her (in front of the cameras) if she's actually eaten her hat yet.

 

Then if she says no, offer her some tomato sauce and then, if she still won't eat it, ask her if that means everything that comes out of her mouth is bulls**t?

 

Or just put up a banner asking "Have you eaten your hat yet crusty!"

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-0.9% from Halifax this month.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/2011/HousePriceIndexNovember2011.pdf

 

YoY is -1.0%

 

These sort of flat figures will go on for a long time yet.

 

2012 should be worse for housing than 2011 in my opinion, as mortgage rates cannot really go any lower, while rising unemployment and falling real incomes continue to bite. No big lurch down, though, as long as ZIRP is maintained. Just a soft 3-4% fall overall at best for the housing bears.

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-0.9% from Halifax this month.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/2011/HousePriceIndexNovember2011.pdf

 

YoY is -1.0%

 

These sort of flat figures will go on for a long time yet.

 

2012 should be worse for housing than 2011 in my opinion, as mortgage rates cannot really go any lower, while rising unemployment and falling real incomes continue to bite. No big lurch down, though, as long as ZIRP is maintained. Just a soft 3-4% fall overall at best for the housing bears.

 

In pure NSA terms Halifax has just hit a low not seen since July 2009. Big monthly fall for this index.

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November 2011 Halifax

Non-Seasonally Adjusted MoM: -2.1%

 

Well yes, of course it is lower NSA.

 

I mean, who buys houses in November?

 

Oh that's right, me! :lol: .

 

Every house we have bought in the last 20 years has been in November (offers made late Oct/early Nov), as that is when the buyers stop loocking and the sellers decide to drop their prices in the run up to xmas (this happened even in the boom years up here in bonny Scotland).

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- 5.4% RPI

= -6.4% CRASH!!!

 

Yes, slow-mo crash in real terms, but no new nominal crash. Been saying it for a while now. If that's a crash then anything that didn't go up nominally is also crashing, which was quite a few things and not just houses the last time I checked.

 

 

 

Probably will a lurch down at some point in the future when rates are forced to rise substantially, but this is not on the 3 year horizon.

 

 

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