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UK House prices: News & Views

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According to the graph in the link the detached properties have gone from over £800,000 to under £500,000. Far, far more of a drop than I have observed living pretty close to Guidford.

 

£800,000 to £500,000 ?

 

I didn't know there were any properties that expensive in glasgow :D

 

(Which graph?)

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According to the graph in the link the detached properties have gone from over £800,000 to under £500,000. Far, far more of a drop than I have observed living pretty close to Guidford.

 

Not really. I have looked at the graphs for my area closely - and looked at the transaction numbers. You only need a few detached houses at a few million to skew the stats. That spike to 800k is a statistical blip - look how steep it is.

 

If you draw a line through the middle of the detached houses, you're looking at a fall from about 630k to 550k.

 

You get a much more realistic view with a bigger sample - this link is for houses in the GU postcode - which is much bigger than Guildford.

 

House prices in Guildford Postcode over last 11 years

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The rats are leaving the sinking ship!

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2093053/The-great-sell-Property-tycoon-raise-3bn-selling-250-000-UK-homes.html

The great sell-off: Property tycoon to raise £3bn by selling 1% of ALL UK homes to clear his debts

 

*250,000 homes are up for grabs in the sale

*The portfolio has 15,000 homes in London alone

 

Iranian-born tycoon Vincent Tchenguiz is looking to sell the freehold for 250,000 properties, which represents one per cent of the UK's entire housing stock.

...

Mr Tchenguiz is acting on behalf of the Tchenguiz Family Trust and has spoken to investment bank Lazard to help sell the portfolio, which comes with £2 billion worth of debts.

...

Mr Tchenguiz told the FT the portfolio would give any buyer a safe and long-running exposure to UK house price growth.

And that's exactly why you're selling, am I right Mr Tchenguiz? ... the portfolio would give any buyer a safe and long-running exposure to UK house price growth crash!

 

£2 billion worth of debts? Ouch! How come!?! MEW, MEW MEW?

 

Mr Tchenguiz, along with his brother Robert, were arrested in March 2011 as part of an investigation by the Serious Fraud Office, into the collapse of Icelandic bank Kaupthing.

 

Robert Tchenguiz was the bank's biggest shareholder, and had been loaned £1.7 billion by the bank.

Oops. Someone burning gazillions?

 

I wonder if he has a mystery Russian investor on the hook already. Juts like the, what's their names, the maths teachers, Smiths? What happened to their portfolio?

 

My guess is that one of the U.K. Einstein banks will buy this crudo, with money freshly printed by the BoE and hence stolen from the purchasing power of the people. Let's hope they don't get a brain drain. Who would do all the stupid deals then?

 

I think Tchenguiz will be lucky to be able to pay back his debt.

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The rats are leaving the sinking ship!

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2093053/The-great-sell-Property-tycoon-raise-3bn-selling-250-000-UK-homes.html

 

And that's exactly why you're selling, am I right Mr Tchenguiz? ... the portfolio would give any buyer a safe and long-running exposure to UK house price growth crash!

 

£2 billion worth of debts? Ouch! How come!?! MEW, MEW MEW?

 

I think it's just the freeholds that are for sale, not the actual properties. (Av £12k each)

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That's correct. The DM headline confuses that too. I guess the correlation to house prices is given. I simply wonder how the guy could end up with 250,000 of those anyway.

 

I think it's just the freeholds that are for sale, not the actual properties. (Av £12k each)

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That's correct. The DM headline confuses that too. I guess the correlation to house prices is given. I simply wonder how the guy could end up with 250,000 of those anyway.

 

I expect they were bought up in several large portfolios. Each freehold receives a ground rent from the leaseholder, plus a renewal fee each time the (usual) 99 year term is up. Guess they took loans out against this, then spent all the cash, but from the sound of it, it seems they spent it well (some wild parties by all accounts :D ).

 

How the other half live eh?

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I think it's just the freeholds that are for sale, not the actual properties. (Av £12k each)

Yep.

Ground rents.

 

I met Tchenguiz before one of my ex-colleagues went to work for him.

 

He's a savvy guy, but always liked to use leverage... the more the better.

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Whoa, the 95% mortgage is back with avengance :unsure:

 

That really is very stupid.

 

From a couple of days ago, but the number of mortgages given out is increasing as well, although still a lot lower than the boom years.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16720476

 

"Lending of £9bn was 12% higher than in December 2010, the British Bankers' Association (BBA) said"

 

Plus last week we had the news that US interest rates would be held at 0 for at least the next three years, a move that the BoE will surely follow.

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Plus last week we had the news that US interest rates would be held at 0 for at least the next three years, a move that the BoE will surely follow.

 

I sure hope so, i made a £50 bet with my gf a few years ago that UK interest rates wouldn't rise for 5 years, so i may yet get rich beyond my wildest dreams :lol:

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Along the theme of: "F the F-ers", this headline is from the front page of the Asian WSJ

 

"Hong Kong Braces for Job Cuts at Lenders"

 

Specifically, they are concerned with how banking cutbacks may impact on HK's property market.

 

If HK is worried about that, should London too?

It seems like London's capital is even more exposed than HK

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Come on, London! You have some catching up to do:

 

"There are some sections of Detroit where entire blocks of houses are being slowly dismantled by thieves and stripped of anything valuable."

 

"This particular house is $50 right now."

"Not too many people want to buy homes in Detroit now. At this point, the median price of a home in Detroit is just $6000."

 

True enough.

Detroit is so broke that they city cannot afford to turn the lights on at night, or collect garbage in parts of the city. Slowly, they are bulldozing whole blocks, and thinking about building farms in the City.

 

Where should you be living? In a city like that, or on real farmland, with neighbors who share certain key values?

 

(note: Moving to the suburbs may be worse than staying in the city. In the burbs you may be needed and forgotten. If you can feed yourself, that's not a big problem. But if not, it is a huge problem.)

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"This particular house is $50 right now."

"Not too many people want to buy homes in Detroit now. At this point, the median price of a home in Detroit is just $6000."

 

Capitulation.

 

Detroit will regain its luster. Access to water, an international frontier, and good transport links, especially for an oil-scarce world.

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Almost another 1% off Nationwide NSA. My top call is looking very good right now. Are you starting to believe yet bears?

 

But only -0.2% SA and very regional (as always). The North East hammered again.

 

I thought your model predicted a small bounce early 2012? I think prices will probably go slightly positive over the next few months.

 

More mortgages (including the 95% LTV back), less fear about EURO, end of stamp duty holiday etc etc.

 

Course it wont last, but could be called a little spring bounce.

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Capitulation.

 

Detroit will regain its luster. Access to water, an international frontier, and good transport links, especially for an oil-scarce world.

I am somewhat intrigued by the Detroit situation. The waterways might indeed become more important again. I am only not quite sure how one could invest into that from a distance. Buying any of these $50 houses - what do you take on in liabilities and taxes? You can not just let it sit and rot and wait until land value will rebounce, I suppose. The city might hold you liable for all kinds of stuff. Any ideas?

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But only -0.2% SA and very regional (as always). The North East hammered again.

 

I thought your model predicted a small bounce early 2012? I think prices will probably go slightly positive over the next few months.

 

More mortgages (including the 95% LTV back), less fear about EURO, end of stamp duty holiday etc etc.

 

Course it wont last, but could be called a little spring bounce.

 

Do vendors say, "sorry mate you can't pay the market price, it's winter so we have to seasonally adjust" ? :)

 

The model forecasts a spring bounce starting with the April figures (from memory). It could be March or May. I'll update the charts after Halifax releases their January numbers.

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Do vendors say, "sorry mate you can't pay the market price, it's winter so we have to seasonally adjust" ? :)

 

yep, and then in the spring they say, "what, you want to pay more than the market price? OK, we'll seasonally adjust" ;)

 

March or May sounds about right.

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I am somewhat intrigued by the Detroit situation. The waterways might indeed become more important again. I am only not quite sure how one could invest into that from a distance. Buying any of these $50 houses - what do you take on in liabilities and taxes? You can not just let it sit and rot and wait until land value will rebounce, I suppose. The city might hold you liable for all kinds of stuff. Any ideas?

Yes, you have to pay taxes and other costs on top (like re-wiring).

 

You may need to find a tenant. and there's a real risk the house will get burned down.

 

Don't bother with the $50 house. Go to a better neighborhood (like Hamtramak or Ferndale) where you can find a tenant and get fire insurance

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Yes, you have to pay taxes and other costs on top (like re-wiring).

 

You may need to find a tenant. and there's a real risk the house will get burned down.

 

Don't bother with the $50 house. Go to a better neighborhood (like Hamtramak or Ferndale) where you can find a tenant and get fire insurance

Ja, I am just not really convinced why Detroit should really recover. Maybe with Chicago and Toronto we have enough large and vibrant cities on the lakes, what would Detroit really have going for it? Maybe it is just going to stay like this, with some pockets of normality or even wealth, and the rest just falling appart.

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Ja, I am just not really convinced why Detroit should really recover. Maybe with Chicago and Toronto we have enough large and vibrant cities on the lakes, what would Detroit really have going for it? Maybe it is just going to stay like this, with some pockets of normality or even wealth, and the rest just falling appart.

My parents, and one of my siblings still live in the Detroit area - in the suburbs.

 

They have a nice living standard. Property prices are not expensive, but no where as cheap as Detroit. There's a very different "demographic" where they are, and it is much safer to live there.

 

The big drawback is: they need a car to do absolutely everything. Living without a car in the Detroit area is next to impossible. That (and the cold weather, which my HK-born party "could not stand"), keep us from considering moving there.

 

I have a brother there who works in a machine tool shop (he virtually runs it, I believe - he's very clever though he never wen to University.) His company is incredibly busy. Much business has moved back from Japan etc and the companies that survived have more business than they can handle.

 

He lives in a beautiful house on a lake and owns two boats.

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Ja, I am just not really convinced why Detroit should really recover. Maybe with Chicago and Toronto we have enough large and vibrant cities on the lakes, what would Detroit really have going for it? Maybe it is just going to stay like this, with some pockets of normality or even wealth, and the rest just falling appart.

It won't.

 

The model here is Glasgow, or any of the other industrial cities of the north.

 

It's like buying a dog of a share and betting on a bounce. You're better of buying something with growth potential that is trending upwards ...

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