G0ldfinger Posted February 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9084492/Interest-only-mortgages-Lloyds-and-Halifax-tighten-lending-criteria.html Interest-only mortgages: Lloyds and Halifax tighten lending criteria... Lloyds Banking Group has become the latest lender to tighten its rules on interest-only mortgages. WHAT? What are these turds thinking they're doing? House prices will crash & burn! I hope these banksters will pay themselves a nice bonus for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malvern hills Posted February 19, 2012 Report Share Posted February 19, 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9084492/Interest-only-mortgages-Lloyds-and-Halifax-tighten-lending-criteria.html WHAT? What are these turds thinking they're doing? House prices will crash & burn! I hope these banksters will pay themselves a nice bonus for this. If the price of houses in gold goes towards 100 ounces, surely this will mean that if gold is also to rise houses priced in fiat will not see a nominal fall. You can't have gold going up in fiat as well as houses if they are to fall relative to gold as well surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2012 You can't have gold going up in fiat as well as houses if they are to fall relative to gold as well surely? Why not? But it all depends on our politicos and banksters, and how much they will pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malvern hills Posted February 19, 2012 Report Share Posted February 19, 2012 Why not? But it all depends on our politicos and banksters, and how much they will pump. So what we are saying is that gold will appreciate with respect to houses and fiat, and that houses will depreciate relative to fiat, such that we get a nominal fall. Therefore houses will do the worst of the three. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 So what we are saying is that gold will appreciate with respect to houses and fiat, and that houses will depreciate relative to fiat, such that we get a nominal fall. Therefore houses will do the worst of the three. Exactly right. And the currency will be printed and printed (325bill?) and thus the currency is depreciated/weakened so in real terms (esp Gold terms) house prices will fall. Gold goes up say 30%, house prices fall 30% provided you own/have bought gold. That is what the graph is telling you since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 If the price of houses in gold goes towards 100 ounces, surely this will mean that if gold is also to rise houses priced in fiat will not see a nominal fall. You can't have gold going up in fiat as well as houses if they are to fall relative to gold as well surely? UK houses outside London: could be cheap enough to be a BUY now. This was posted on another thread here: Met the CEO of a large property co. last week. He highlighted that in the UK construction costs (I think he was referring to commercial office) has fallen from about £250 -270 (at peak) to £210 / sqft or less now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Exactly right. And the currency will be printed and printed (325bill?) and thus the currency is depreciated/weakened so in real terms (esp Gold terms) house prices will fall. Gold goes up say 30%, house prices fall 30% provided you own/have bought gold. That is what the graph is telling you since 2000. ??? Houses are in fixed supply, so if more currency is printed, their price should rise in nominal prices, and may stay steady in gold - now that they have reached a reasonable valuation in gold ounces. GF, How about running a house-price-gold-index for outside london? i think you can assume that somethink like 20% of total housing value is in Greater London Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Told you to be wary of Rightmove House Prices See Sharpest Rise In A DecadeHouse prices jumped sharply in February, with the average property seeing its highest monthly rise since 2002. The 4.1% month-on-month increase took the typical asking price of a home on the market to £233,252, according to the property website Rightmove http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-see-sharpest-rise-094421364.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Stamp duty holiday deadline + Olympic year = Sellers' delusion. Happens every new year; don't know why anyone is surprised by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 Mind you, rents are still rising. http://citywire.co.uk/money/rents-resume-upward-march/a567414 Rents must fall or interest rates must rise for UK house prices to fall significantly. At the moment neither is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 The Spring Bounce is here. Now with added Olympic Power. UK House prices to go up a couple of percent this year is my guess, at least when measured in GBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 The Spring Bounce is here. Now with added Olympic Power. UK House prices to go up a couple of percent this year is my guess, at least when measured in GBP. See BDEV at £1.30 now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 The Spring Bounce is here. Now with added Olympic Power. UK House prices to go up a couple of percent this year is my guess, at least when measured in GBP. Year-on-Year change is now +1.4% Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 127,148 - 0.25% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,145 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 125,624 - 1.20% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,697 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : == : = = = = = : = = = = = : O : : 239,672 : 450,210 : 127,252 -1.22% / 165,650 = n/a = 163,311 164,311 : £164,981 : + 0.40% :145.3% : N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : ====================================== mom:+4.10% : +2,49 % : -Est.DI : 139.6% / - 0.97% = n/a = : + 0.53% : +0.69% : - 0.16% yoy : +1.40% : +4.31% But prices remain BELOW the October level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 The Spring Bounce is here. Now with added Olympic Power. UK House prices to go up a couple of percent this year is my guess, at least when measured in GBP. It looks to me like a Spring Bounce is on the cards, but if the new money slows after the stamp duty holiday then we could heading back negative in the second half of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mabon Posted February 20, 2012 Report Share Posted February 20, 2012 The Spring Bounce is here. Now with added Olympic Power. Nice. You definitely should shop that slogan around a few agencies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 It looks to me like a Spring Bounce is on the cards, but if the new money slows after the stamp duty holiday then we could heading back negative in the second half of 2012. Yes probably. Nice. You definitely should shop that slogan around a few agencies Sell housing like washing up liquid. The Spring Bounce, it does exactly what it says on the tin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 Bumper profits from BDEV (and it' little friend). With much coming from homes built on cheap land bought in the crash of 2009 (when even old prince chaz was hoovering up commercial land at 50% discount) Both Barratt Developments, the UK's biggest builder by volume, and Galliford Try said they were able to increase their profit margins and build significantly more homes than a year ago. Galliford has doubled its interim dividend. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/9098319/Bumper-profits-from-UK-house-builders.html BDEV hit £1.40 today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/9099117/UK-housing-market-heading-for-lost-decade-warns-Collins-Stewart.html “We believe that periods of rampant house price inflation have more often been caused by over-supply of capital rather than under-supply of housing – the northern buy-to-let boom of the last decade being a prime example,” Mr Stewart added. Oohh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/9099117/UK-housing-market-heading-for-lost-decade-warns-Collins-Stewart.html Oohh. Yes, I remember his prediction for BDEV a couple of years back. Mr Stewart, who put a 0p target price on housebuilders Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, warned of “at least two or three years of steady house price erosion”. Yet today we see BDEV @ £1.40 Some track record Of course the UK market is likely to fall a bit, but supply has obviously had some effect. Even the old nah-sayers have come, eventually, to admit this. That's why US, Spain and Eire were hammered everywhere, and the UK only partly hammered in the areas where no one want to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 "Mr Stewart, who put a 0p target price on housebuilders Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, warned of “at least two or three years of steady house price erosion”. Yes, I remember his prediction for BDEV a couple of years back. Yet today we see BDEV @ £1.40 Some track record BDEV saved itself by doing a rescue financing some years ago. Since then, various government policies, and dumping properties in Hong Kong etc have also helped. They are a survivor, but they've had to scramble to do it. Could the analyst have foreseen that Hongkongers and Mainlanders would be so eager to throw their money into London property? But I do have to agree that this looks like a major breakout for Barratt It is impossible to know where it will stop, because it has moved into a fresh range, and BDEV will need to form its own top ... in its own time. X : 069.20p : 01.Dec.2010 A : 120.60p : 13 May.2011 B : 064.91p : 19.Aug.2011 ? : 146.90p : 23 Feb.2012 (so far) X-to-A : 51.40p B-to-? : 82.--p (159.5%) Target : 83.--p (161.8%) : 148p ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted February 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 Of course the UK market is likely to fall a bit, but supply has obviously had some effect. Even the old nah-sayers have come, eventually, to admit this. That's why US, Spain and Eire were hammered everywhere, and the UK only partly hammered in the areas where no one want to live. Maybe it's just that Merv more blatantly hyper-inflated and monetized bad mortgages. While in Europe that happened to a lesser degree? So again, no housing shortage, but rather too much money. EDIT: Merv's number crunchers from the basement in Threadneedle Street certainly told him that the only real economic activity in the UK is selling ever more expensive houses to each other. His number one goal is therefore to keep this Ponzi going. And to achieve this, he has openly admitted to (hyper-)inflating the system ('you poor savers, I am so sorry for you, but we have to do this... you know... the banksters want bonus...'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 Maybe it's just that Merv more blatantly hyper-inflated and monetized bad mortgages. While in Europe that happened to a lesser degree? So again, no housing shortage, but rather too much money. EDIT: Merv's number crunchers from the basement in Threadneedle Street certainly told him that the only real economic activity in the UK is selling ever more expensive houses to each other. His number one goal is therefore to keep this Ponzi going. And to achieve this, he has openly admitted to (hyper-)inflating the system ('you poor savers, I am so sorry for you, but we have to do this... you know... the banksters want bonus...'). Seen any new build ghost estates (as they call them in Eire) in the UK recently? It was just part of the reason, not all of it. As you point out, there were/are many factors and for these so-called experts to ignore some of these (i.e the crazy oversupply in Eire, US and Spain, with a reduction in new housing in the UK), is ignoring the obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stunlee Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 BBA mortgage approvals up 2000 in the last month and showing a clear upwards trend as can be seen in this chart. http://www.forexfactory.com/#chart=40564 Edit: the figure is now actually above what was seen in Feb 2007, at the peak of the boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 28, 2012 Report Share Posted February 28, 2012 This is an interesting site. It shows global house price rise/decline. http://www.globalpropertyguide.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted February 28, 2012 Report Share Posted February 28, 2012 Now the builder have so much cash, they're giving it back (to investors). Persimmon to return £1.9bn to investors http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/persimmon-return-1-9bn-investors-104303792.html Yet The average selling price for the year was £167,582, down 2.8pc on the previous year (Blamed on selling more small houses, opposite to some of the other builders) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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