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G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

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Now the builder have so much cash, they're giving it back (to investors).

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/persimmon-return-1-9bn-investors-104303792.html

...

A bit worrying for those pushing for an increase in housing supply, who is going to build these extra houses if a cash rich company that controls more than 60,000 building plots has so little appetite to build volume, or foresees such a poor rate of return that they give cash back to shareholders?

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Haarts est agts in Chesham, biggish unit at least four staff has just closed.

 

Chesham - 1 hr to London, tube line, popular for schools, typical busy town in Chilterns.

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It's the old spring ..... (can't bring myself to say it).

Flounce? Obsession?

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Trap? :rolleyes:

 

and not just monetarily.

Dying for their house price to be restored.

Can there be a more hollow acheivement for a divine soul?

The dye is cast. If it matters to them that much, then they are lost.

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It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than it is for someone with a house worth less than a quarter of a million pounds to enter heaven.

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"Listen Fergus. We don't care how many hundred 2 bed houses you once 'owned'. It's quality that's important up here and you are obviously not even Chelsington material!

Morning Sir Tony. What is it today sir? Scaling Everest again? ............ Oh right you are sir. Paradise beach with your own favourite speeches. Perfection!"

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THREE WAY INTERVIEW

 

I have just done a three way interview with the "celebrity Financial Adviser" Jonathan Davis and Dominic Frisby.

 

I believe it should be available later today on: http://FrisbysBullsAndBears.com

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Is that Financial Planner/ Killer Bunny from HPC or the Jonathan Davis who was on Bulls and Bears a few weeks ago? There have been some very good interviews on B and B recently.

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Is that Financial Planner/ Killer Bunny from HPC or the Jonathan Davis who was on Bulls and Bears a few weeks ago? There have been some very good interviews on B and B recently.

Is there more than one? Perhaps there is.

 

I always thought this one was THE Jonathan Davis:

 

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There was a different Jonathan Davis on the 25th Jan 2012 episode of F B and B. Just downloading the podcast now.

I did notice that after you asked.

 

This JD will be best know to those who came from HPC, as he has been outspoken on his bearish-on-housing view for a long time. He's been mostly right on the UK as a whole, but nit so right on London where prices are hanging up at record highs. We considered why that is the case in the discussion

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...I do have to agree that this looks like a major breakout for Barratt

 

bdev.png

 

It is impossible to know where it will stop, because it has moved into a fresh range, and BDEV will need to form its own top ... in its own time.

 

X : 069.20p : 01.Dec.2010

A : 120.60p : 13 May.2011

B : 064.91p : 19.Aug.2011

? : 146.90p : 23 Feb.2012 (so far)

X-to-A : 51.40p

B-to-? : 82.--p (159.5%)

Target : 83.--p (161.8%) : 148p ??

 

A few days later, we look back and see:

52 Week Range:

64.912 to 150.00

 

Best closing high? 149.20- 2.28

 

Now at: 146.20 Change: -1.00

Open: 147.40 High: 148.60 Low: 145.00

Volume: 6,990,423

Percent Change: -0.68%

 

No Runaway so far

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I did notice that after you asked.

 

This JD will be best know to those who came from HPC, as he has been outspoken on his bearish-on-housing view for a long time. He's been mostly right on the UK as a whole, but nit so right on London where prices are hanging up at record highs. We considered why that is the case in the discussion

 

I'd say he has been consistently wrong on house prices since 2002/3 when hpc started up. Interesting to think a web site called housepriceCRASH must be about to celebrate its 10th anniversary.

 

In much of the country - London, South East, Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridge, the West Country, nice parts of the Midlands and nice parts anywhere - house prices have held up from the days in 2003 when the founders of HPC first started predicting a crash.

 

Saying dogmatically that house prices will crash 50% imminently - and getting a house price correction of 50%, courtesy of general inflation, over 20 years - makes him wrong. Glad he's not my financial advisor.

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I'd say he has been consistently wrong on house prices since 2002/3 when hpc started up. Interesting to think a web site called housepriceCRASH must be about to celebrate its 10th anniversary.

 

Indeed. Housepricetentofifteenyearsofslowrealtermsfalls.com isn't a particularly catchy website name though.

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Is the mortgage timebomb about to go off? RBS and NatWest hike home loan rates for 200,000 customers - and Halifax could be next It's a signal banks are starting to pass on the rise in cost of borrowing on wholesale money markets

Comes as 7/10 Britons are in debt sparking fears they will struggle to make monthly payments

 

 

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2109335/Fears-thousands-homeowners-face-repossession-taxpayer-backed-NatWest-hikes-mortgage-prices-200-000-customers.html#ixzz1nyovccPg

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The Consumer Credit Counselling Service said: ‘Households are being hit by a double whammy.

 

High interest rates and the squeeze on household budgets across the board are combining to make it even harder for people to repay their debts, and many are at risk of falling even further behind.’

 

 

 

 

High? HIGH? ROFL!

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Is the mortgage timebomb about to go off? RBS and NatWest hike home loan rates for 200,000 customers - and Halifax could be next It's a signal banks are starting to pass on the rise in cost of borrowing on wholesale money markets

Comes as 7/10 Britons are in debt sparking fears they will struggle to make monthly payments

 

 

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2109335/Fears-thousands-homeowners-face-repossession-taxpayer-backed-NatWest-hikes-mortgage-prices-200-000-customers.html#ixzz1nyovccPg

 

A 3.5% SVR raised to 4%, works out about £28 a month for the average £100,000 (repayment) mortgage.

 

Less than £1 a day. Not nice if you're struggling, but hardly a time bomb (and some are only expected to change by half of this, i.e 3.5 to 3.75).

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see the chancellor give a similar amount back to households in the budget.

 

 

High? HIGH? ROFL!

 

Exactly, they'll need to double before real problems begin.

 

Even those with the crazy mortgages put in the bad bank (NR and B&B ) are managing to pay back way better than expected, so much so that the "bad banks" together just announced a huge increase in profit to over a billion quid!

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I'd say he has been consistently wrong on house prices since 2002/3 when hpc started up. Interesting to think a web site called housepriceCRASH must be about to celebrate its 10th anniversary.

 

In much of the country - London, South East, Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridge, the West Country, nice parts of the Midlands and nice parts anywhere - house prices have held up from the days in 2003 when the founders of HPC first started predicting a crash.

 

Saying dogmatically that house prices will crash 50% imminently - and getting a house price correction of 50%, courtesy of general inflation, over 20 years - makes him wrong. Glad he's not my financial advisor.

 

 

 

My own view on this is there is a "flight to safety" in London; people are of the opinion that London will be more resiliant because of population density, so therefore they are less fearful of prices falling in the capital, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Exactly what we are seeing in the bond market between different countries. People will lend to the US & UK at negative real rates, but demand 6% or 7% to the PIIGS, when all these countries are technically as insolvent as one another.

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"The UK's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax, is expected to raise its standard variable mortgage rate (SVR) from 1 May."

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17234257

 

Seems its average mortgage (on SVR) is less than £70k, so adds up to less than £5 a week difference.

 

In fact it just brings them into line alongside Nationwide etc.

 

RBS also now saying their 0.25% rise in NOT on its SVR. Just the offset and one-account mortgages.

 

Ah well. One day the rates will rise properly. But not today.

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My own view on this is there is a "flight to safety" in London; people are of the opinion that London will be more resiliant because of population density, so therefore they are less fearful of prices falling in the capital, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Exactly what we are seeing in the bond market between different countries. People will lend to the US & UK at negative real rates, but demand 6% or 7% to the PIIGS, when all these countries are technically as insolvent as one another.

 

What we are seeing in the bond market is not a flight to UK safety. We are seeing the B of E print money to buy our own debt to suppress the yield. The PIIGS yield has now dropped because the LTROs have meant they can do the same via their banks. Their other problem was they had more debt maturing earlier.

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