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UK House prices: News & Views

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I’m losing track of all these stupid schemes.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ps-1745114.html

 

Treasury scheme to help property market is not working, say MPs

 

The Treasury's Asset-backed Guarantee Scheme (ABS), one of the key policy measures enacted by the Government to get the housing market moving again, "seems not to be working", according to MPs. The guarantees were made available in April, but none of the major banks has issued a security with such a guarantee.

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And so the dead cat bounces on...

 

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_JULY09.pdf

 

A Wall of Unemployment

The effect of the credit crunch on the wider economy has been devastating. UK GDP

is now 4.9 per cent lower than the first quarter of 2008, the largest fall on record

and jobs are disappearing. According to the office of national statistics, the last three

months to April saw “the largest quarterly fall in the number of people in

employment since comparable records began in 1971”. Clearly, this is not the sort of

economic data that would support rising house prices and it looks set to worsen

before it improves. The nascent recovery in property sales appears too weak to

counter such economic headwinds.

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Chancellor Alistair Darling is to meet with the banks next week to remind them of their legally-binding obligation to lend more money to homebuyers.

 

Is this merely a stunt such that he is seen to be doing something knowing full well that the banks won't/can't increase lending? Or is this maniac actually going to force this regardless of any other consequences it may have?

 

I can't bring myself to buy a place for me and my family just now at these ridiculously over priced levels. And yet I get a nasty feeling this government will do anything to keep nominal prices at their current levels while sterling gets trashed in the process. Gold is looking better by the day...

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Chancellor Alistair Darling is to meet with the banks next week to remind them of their legally-binding obligation to lend more money to homebuyers.

 

Is this merely a stunt such that he is seen to be doing something knowing full well that the banks won't/can't increase lending? Or is this maniac actually going to force this regardless of any other consequences it may have?

 

I can't bring myself to buy a place for me and my family just now at these ridiculously over priced levels. And yet I get a nasty feeling this government will do anything to keep nominal prices at their current levels while sterling gets trashed in the process. Gold is looking better by the day...

 

I believe the banks agreed (verbally) ‘to maintain lending at 2007 levels’.

 

There's no any legal requirement to lend to anyone. And certianly not targeted lending at homeowners.

 

‘Maintaining lending at 2007 levels’ could mean more than one thing. The actual meaning of the words were never defined.

 

In any case, mortgage lending was mostly done by foreign lenders who have decided to leave the UK. The Building Socienties are shutting up shop and the UKs biggest mortgage lending banks are all gone too (in no particular order)

 

1. Northern Rock

2. Bradford and Bingley

3. HBOS

4. Alliance & Leicester

 

Only the Bank of England can support house prices.

 

(I'm not certian of any of the above btw)

 

EDITED

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...

Only the Bank of England can support house prices.

If this happened, I'd prefer to watch it from outside the country. ;)

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http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-calj...0,6076386.story

But this time around, government employment is shrinking and not creating jobs, and it has become "a drag on the economy," said Christopher Thornberg, an analyst at Beacon Economics, a Los Angeles consulting firm.

 

No one needs to explain this to Tamara Eccleston, 31, and her fiance, Gregg Weinstein, 37. Both new teachers were fired from their Los Angeles Unified School District posts.

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it's really not a good idea to store your wealth in a large, illiquid, highly visible, immobile asset when the state is going on the rampage.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/114851...cing-a-tax-rise

1,000 HOMES A MONTH FACING A TAX RISE

 

MORE than 1,000 homes a month are being secretly moved into higher council tax bands.

 

The “stealth revaluation” means owners who have improved their properties with extensions, garages and double-glazing face increases of more than £600 a year. Camera-wielding officials may decree that even laying a patio or landscaping the garden are enough move a home up a band.

...

 

most people simply cannot comprehend how worthless houses will be by the time the state has finished playing with the market.

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I’m losing track of all these stupid schemes.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ps-1745114.html

 

This strong buyer's market continues making it an even better year to become a homeowner! Finally, there are enough homes on the market to take your time and choose the home that is best for you. Ever heard, "buy low-sell high", now is your....

/@ http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrloc/Florida~Clearwater

 

This is pretty clear - No bottom yet if Mish is right about 2011.

 

1248001140059525100.jpg

From Mish Shedlock: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-to-bottom.html

 

I suppose what comes a year after two "Never a better time to buy" is "An Even better year to buy."

Just a year or 18 months before capitulation.

 

As of April 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the middle of 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, the 10-City Composite is down 33.6% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6%.

. . .

“The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.

. . .

 

The Case-Shiller charts suggest that the worst may finally be over. However, so far all we can say is that things are getting worse at a decreasing pace. This is not the same as getting better. Indeed it may take 2 years or more to cross the zero-line in the second Case-Shiller chart. That would be consistent with a bottom in 2011.

 

Thus I see no reason to switch from my long-held estimate of a 2011-2012 timeframe for a bottom. Furthermore, even once housing does bottom, do not expect a V shaped recovery. Housing prices are likely to remain weak especially in real (inflation adjusted) terms for another decade. For a clue as what to expect, take a look at the period from 1991 to 2000 in the first Case-Shiller chart. Expect a similarly long "fat tail" once housing does bottom.

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Right Shoulder for Barratt ... this week?

- If so, it should signal that the Dead Cat bounce is about to die.

 

Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) ... update : BDEV-2mos : http://yfrog.com/0azzz2tg

zzz2t.gif

 

Latest:

BDEV.L : 168.00 +3.25 Open: 163.50 High: 169.75 Low: 163.50

Volume: 1,117,063 / Percent Change: +1.97%

 

I note that BDEV is on the 252d.MA, and this would be a great level, and wonderful timing for a Right Shoulder high

during this week.

 

I also note that there was much stronger upwards momentum in April, and the actual high of the year (so far)

was 184.75p back in early June.

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Friend selling a couple of porperties in SW19 says property seems to be red hot again and getting full asking price...maybe the bounce will go on for a while longer than most of us on here were expecting?

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Friend selling a couple of porperties in SW19 says property seems to be red hot again and getting full asking price...maybe the bounce will go on for a while longer than most of us on here were expecting?

 

It’s dead round my way (South Manchester). There are a couple of asking price rises on Property Bee. The vast majority of price moves are falls despite the good news

 

I suspect the recent gains in the Haliwide indices are encouraging sellers to hold out for their asking price. Though I cannot be sure as I haven’t been to a single viewing yet and don’t intend to view anything until Haliwide dips further.

 

Virtually nothing is selling (nothing I am interested in buying). Unfortunately for me, many of the small terraced houses I wanted have been removed from the market.

 

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Please invite him. You have my full blessing, to do that

 

... I have already started a "tribute" thread ... see: LINK

 

The Persistence of "Delusionary pricing" in the UK

"My home hasn't fallen in value", or has it?

=================================

 

RIGHTMOVE is doing a great job of feeding people's delusions, and lending comfort to those that cling to the delusion that their homes are somehow worth more than the average homes in the UK.

 

The "Delusion" Index (using average prices) ... img

ukpropdelusion.gif

 

For a long time, the Rightmove index hovered about 20% above the average prices as reflected in Halifax and Nationwide indices. I suppose one could argue that the Rightmove properties might be a larger, or higher standard home, or perhaps it was better located (?) Or maybe, Rightmove was mainly reflecting the inevitably wide Bid/Offer spread between what sellers wanted for their homes, and what buyers were willing to pay. But in the end it is the actual sales prices that matter. And this is why Halifax and Nationwide's indices are more useful, since they reflect the actual purchase prices in financing requests. The H&Nw indices were showing what Buyers ultimately agreed to pay, not what Sellers "hope" to achieve.

 

However the price difference comes about, it has widened dramatically in recent months. Looking at the raw data, we can see that Rightmove's prices did not slide much, as H&Nw prices collapsed in the last few months.

 

The widening gap is refected in the "The Delusion Index", as was originally proposed by Neon Tetra on his excellent thread.

 

Following are my comments from that thread. I hope HPCers will continue to watch the progress of this index, as we wait to see when the mass of UK property sellers will finally face reality. I reckon it will be 2012-13, before we finally see realistic pricing reflected in a collapse in this Ratio to under 120%.

 

(From GEI, where we have taken notice of this thread):

 

The Three Main price Indices ... img

zzz2b.gif

 

Some have said that NeonTetra's Delusion Index is "like comparing Apples and Oranges".

If so, why are Rightmove's Oranges so dramatically overvalued (in relation to Apples)?

 

Actually, I think there must be some sort of delusion here:

 

+ Either, Rightmove has a delusionary way of collecting data, or

+ Rightmove's data set includes houses that have somehow withstood the price slide - How?

+ Rightmove's sellers are holding out for unrealistic prices, or

+ Rightmove's sellers must cut their prices dramatically to get a sale, and

+ The Bid/Offer spreads have widened dramatically, since sellers do not want to face reality

 

I think the final explanation is most likely, with some combination of all of them at work.

 

== ==

I thought this was such a great concept, I decided to start a thread about it in the Psychology section,

so it will be easier to find.

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Double Post:

 

The Rightmove Survey only monitors the ‘initial’ asking price.

 

Modifications to asking price are not monitored.

 

So the survey will not measure any house that is having its price repetitively cut unless it is re-listed with a new agent.

 

I don’t think it is fair to call this ‘Seller Delusion’.

 

EDIT: And, the Rightmove Survey data should be shifted over by 8 months*. The houses going on the market today are not going to sell today.

 

* or whatever the average selling time is at present.

 

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a2CB8KFfL3tw

Spain Housing Collapse Cuts Rents in Worst Glut Since 1950s

...

The number of properties for rent in Spain climbed 55 percent in the past two years to 3.3 million, the highest since the Ministry of Housing started collecting the data in 2004. Rents in cities, including Madrid and Barcelona, are falling for the first time in seven years with declines of as much as 8 percent, according to Madrid-based property research firm Idealista.com.

 

“Those who need to sell but can’t are being forced to lease,” said Fernando Encinar, co-founder and head of research at Idealista.com, Spain’s largest real estate Web site with 308,000 listings for rent and purchase. “We haven’t seen this number of properties for rent since the 1950s.”

 

Spain built about 29 percent of new homes in the European Union from 2001 to 2007, even as it represented just 9 percent of the population. The resulting glut of 1.5 million unsold houses and apartments sparked the end of a decade-long real estate and construction boom that accounted for about 20 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2007. ...

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Spain built about 29 percent of new homes in the European Union from 2001 to 2007, even as it represented just 9 percent of the population. The resulting glut of 1.5 million unsold houses and apartments sparked the end of a decade-long real estate and construction boom that accounted for about 20 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2007. ...

perfect example of the malinvest caused by central bankers setting the price of credit too low

 

central planning and price fixing always causes problems

 

Ireland still singing praises for the Euro

 

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January

1.1 Tuesday 05 JAN 1988 - The Times - Big house price increases on way out, says Woolwich

1.2 Saturday 09 JAN 1988 - The Times - First time buyers hold key: House prices

1.3 Sunday 10 JAN 1988 - The Sunday Times - Property: New moves set for the home front

1.4 Tuesday 19 JAN 1988 - The Times - Slow sellers push up house prices

2 February

2.1 Sunday 07 FEB 1988 - The Sunday Times - Property: When pay can't tip the house price scale.

2.2 Friday 12 FEB 1988 - The Times - Business Roundup: Rising house prices push Ward up 49

2.3 Wednesday 17 FEB 1988 - The Times -Special Report on Thetford (7): Built-in problems of house-price rises

3 March

3.1 Saturday 05 MAR 1988 - The Times - House prices increase by 16.9 percent

3.2 Thursday 10 MAR 1988 - The Times - Rising house prices lift property group to 4 million pounds

4 April

4.1 Tuesday 05 APR 1988 - The Times -House price rises slow in London

4.2 Sunday 10 APR 1988 - The Sunday Times = Personal Finance: House price gap widens

5 May

5.1 Friday 06 MAY 1988 - The Times - North-South gap on house prices 'is set to narrow'

5.2 Sunday 08 MAY 1988 - The Sunday Times - Poll tax will boost house prices

5.3 Friday 20 MAY 1988 - The Times - House prices up 50%; Norwich; Focus

5.4 Tuesday 24 MAY 1988 - The Times - Prices boom as property 'cauldron' bubbles; House price rises

5.5 Saturday 28 MAY 1988 - The Times - 30m pound house price surprises agents; The Holme in Regent's Park

6 June

6.1 Monday 13 JUN 1988 - The Times - Poll tax may lift house prices 20%

6.2 Tuesday 28 JUN 1988 - The Times - Builders appeal for more land as house prices soar again

7 July

7.1 Saturday 02 JUL 1988 - The Times - House-rich;House prices;Family Money

7.2 Thursday 07 JUL 1988 - The Times - Rising house prices may send inflation through the roof

7.3 Friday 29 JUL 1988 - The Times - Action on gazumping;House prices

8 August

8.1 Monday 01 AUG 1988 - The Times - House price boom `to end next year'

8.2 Friday 05 AUG 1988 - The Times - House price rises may be past peak

8.3 Thursday 11 AUG 1988 - The Times - English rushing to buy Scots homes;House prices in Scotland are soaring

8.4 Friday 12 AUG 1988 - The Times - Rising house prices `holding back firms in the South-east'

8.5 Saturday 20 AUG 1988 - The Times - Hebden Bridge riding high thanks to trains

8.6 Sunday 21 AUG 1988 - The Sunday Times - Let the nation retire to Dungloation;House Prices

9 September

9.1 Tuesday 06 SEP 1988 - The Times - House price inflation 'is likely to fall sharply' next year

9.2 Saturday 17 SEP 1988 - The Times - Country house prices `to rise further'

9.3 Sunday 18 SEP 1988 - The Sunday Times - Place your bets on house prices

9.4 Saturday 24 SEP 1988 - The Times - Jitters on house prices

9.5 Saturday 24 SEP 1988 - The Times - Jitters on house prices;Fall on the way, say the experts

9.6 Sunday 25 SEP 1988 - The Sunday Times - House prices slow rapidly

9.7 Tuesday 27 SEP 1988 - The Times - House prices

10 October

10.1 Tuesday 11 OCT 1988 - The Times - Pilgrim share price leaps on confirmation of offer

10.2 Wednesday 19 OCT 1988 - The Times - Students pay price of housing shortage

10.3 Saturday 29 OCT 1988 - The Times - Long distance season tickets go up by 21%

10.4 Sunday 30 OCT 1988 - The Sunday Times - Holding the key to cut-price pleasure

11 November

11.1 Saturday 05 NOV 1988 - The Times - House prices crumble

11.2 Sunday 06 NOV 1988 - The Sunday Times - House prices will languish until incomes catch up

12 December

12.1 Saturday 03 DEC 1988 - The Times - Prices subside as Nigel puts his house in order

12.2 Wednesday 07 DEC 1988 - The Times - Housing slows

12.3 Sunday 11 DEC 1988 - The Sunday Times - Exodus as Londoners are blitzed by house prices

 

1989

 

1 January

1.1 Sunday 01 JAN 1989 - The Sunday Times -Falling prices put couples in two-home trap;House-buying;North-south divided

1.2 Tuesday 03 JAN 1989 - The Times -Agents optimistic about house prices

1.3 Friday 06 JAN 1989 - The Times -Shortage of teachers in Essex linked to soaring house prices

1.4 Wednesday 11 JAN 1989 - The Times - A realistic new year;House prices;Residential Property

2 February

2.1 Wednesday 08 FEB 1989 - The Times - House prices 'set to fall everywhere'

2.2 Sunday 26 FEB 1989 - The Sunday Times - Pounds 800,000 price on house Turner painted;Property

3 March

3.1 Monday 06 MAR 1989 - The Times - House prices recover

3.2 Wednesday 08 MAR 1989 - The Times - Agents forecast up to 20% rise in house prices near route;Channel tunnel rail link

3.3 Wednesday 22 MAR 1989 - The Times - Marking time;House prices in Britain

3.4 Friday 24 MAR 1989 - The Times - Priced-out families `need help';Housing

3.5 Wednesday 29 MAR 1989 - The Times - House trend bucked;Quarterly prices

4 April

4.1 Friday 07 APR 1989 - The Times - North booms;House prices

4.2 Monday 10 APR 1989 - The Times - 10% house price rise forecast

4.3 Wednesday 12 APR 1989 - The Times - Housing reverses North-South divide;House price survey

4.4 Sunday 16 APR 1989 - The Sunday Times - House prices still rise in the north;Personal Finance

4.5 Tuesday 25 APR 1989 - The Times - House owners have to cut prices to secure sale

5 May

5.1 Tuesday 23 MAY 1989 - The Times - High house prices

6 June

6.1 Wednesday 07 JUN 1989 - The Times - Bigger rise;House prices

7 July

7.1 Saturday 01 JUL 1989 - The Times - Owners drop house prices by 20% to encourage sales

7.2 Saturday 08 JUL 1989 - The Times - Quotient warning hits price;Computer software house

7.3 Tuesday 11 JUL 1989 - The Times - House prices in doldrums

7.4 Tuesday 25 JUL 1989 - The Times - Buyers cash in by cutting their offers;House prices

7.5 Wednesday 26 JUL 1989 - The Times - Tunnel line cuts price of houses;Channel tunnel

8 August

8.1 Friday 04 AUG 1989 - The Times - All house prices `may fall'

8.2 Friday 11 AUG 1989 - The Times - House prices will not rise until 1991

8.3 Friday 18 AUG 1989 - The Times - House prices could fall for some years, consultants predict

8.4 Tuesday 22 AUG 1989 - The Times - Sellers accept cut in asking prices;House prices

9 September

9.1 Tuesday 26 SEP 1989 - The Times - Falls bring buyers' market to North;Housing prices

9.2 Saturday 30 SEP 1989 - The Times - House prices down by 3.8%

10 October

10.1 Sunday 15 OCT 1989 - The Sunday Times - House buyers to be scarce until prices reach bottom

11 November

11.1 Sunday 05 NOV 1989 - The Sunday Times - House prices may rise next spring

11.2 Tuesday 07 NOV 1989 - The Times - House prices

11.3 Thursday 09 NOV 1989 - The Times - House prices 'to rise'

11.4 Friday 17 NOV 1989 - The Times - House prices to recover next year

 

1990[/size]

 

1 January

1.1 Saturday 06 JAN 1990 - The Times - Recovery forecast for house prices in market awash with loan funds

1.2 Saturday 06 JAN 1990 - The Times - House prices in 2% year-end fall

1.3 Saturday 20 JAN 1990 - The Times - House prices in London drop by 10%

2 February

2.1 Sunday 18 FEB 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices may fall still further

2.2 Tuesday 27 FEB 1990 - The Times - Price of houses 'to fall 10%'

3 March

3.1 Wednesday 07 MAR 1990 - The Times - House prices rise but trend is down

3.2 Friday 09 MAR 1990 - The Times - Switch to poll tax 'may lift house prices 15%'

4 April

4.1 Wednesday 04 APR 1990 - The Times - 10% fall forecast for house prices

4.2 Wednesday 11 APR 1990 - The Times - House prices are still falling, Halifax says

4.3 Saturday 21 APR 1990 - The Times - Auction houses counsel caution on art prices

5 May

5.1 Friday 04 MAY 1990 - The Times - The end of house price inflation

5.2 Saturday 05 MAY 1990 - The Times - Bargain house prices found under the hammer

6 June

6.1 Wednesday 06 JUN 1990 - The Times - Halifax predicts prices will keep falling;Houses

6.2 Tuesday 19 JUN 1990 - The Times - House prices

6.3 Tuesday 26 JUN 1990 - The Times - Allen benefits from rise in house prices;Pre-tax profits

6.4 Wednesday 27 JUN 1990 - The Times - Prestige houses that still exceed list pri;Residential Property

7 July

7.1 Sunday 08 JUL 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices

7.2 Thursday 12 JUL 1990 - The Times - No cheer in rising house prices

7.3 Thursday 12 JUL 1990 - The Times - House prices recover

7.4 Thursday 12 JUL 1990 - The Times - Society says return of first-time buyers lifting house prices

7.5 Tuesday 24 JUL 1990 - The Times - Housing prices static or falling

8 August

8.1 Wednesday 08 AUG 1990 - The Times - House prices continue to slide

9 October

9.1 Wednesday 10 OCT 1990 - The Times - Small rise for house prices

9.2 Sunday 14 OCT 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices bottom out

10 November

10.1 Sunday 11 NOV 1990 - The Sunday Times - Indicator of the Week;Halifax House Price Index

10.2 Sunday 18 NOV 1990 - The Sunday Times - House prices set to take off in spring

10.3 Sunday 18 NOV 1990 - The Sunday Times - City 'slickers' raise house prices

10.4 Monday 26 NOV 1990 - The Times - Increase in house prices predicted

11 December

11.1 Thursday 06 DEC 1990 - The Times - House price inflation up

11.2 Saturday 29 DEC 1990 - The Times - Two-point cut in bank rate 'could revive house prices'

 

1991

 

1 January

1.1 Friday 04 JAN 1991 - The Times - House prices;London

1.2 Saturday 05 JAN 1991 - The Times - Record fall in house prices

1.3 Thursday 10 JAN 1991 - The Times - House price rises suggest a recovery

1.4 Wednesday 16 JAN 1991 - The Times - Agent fined over house price claim

2 February

2.1 Monday 04 FEB 1991 - The Times - House prices in the late 1980s are not to blame for the recession

2.2 Sunday 10 FEB 1991 - The Sunday Times - House prices 'may not recover this year'

3 March

3.1 Wednesday 06 MAR 1991 - The Times - House price rises predicted this year

3.2 Wednesday 13 MAR 1991 - The Times - House prices predicted to rise 66% over five years

3.3 Saturday 30 MAR 1991 - The Times - London house prices 'up 0.5%'

4 April

4.1 Monday 08 APR 1991 - The Times - House prices are not the problem

4.2 Sunday 21 APR 1991 - The Sunday Times - Country houses fall 15% in price

5 May

5.1 Wednesday 01 MAY 1991 - The Times - The price is right in the housing basement

5.2 Thursday 02 MAY 1991 - The Times - Residents fear fall in house prices

5.3 Monday 20 MAY 1991 - The Times - House prices 'to rise by 2% at most'

5.4 Friday 24 MAY 1991 - The Times - Bank set to act on house prices

6 June

6.1 Saturday 01 JUN 1991 - The Times - House price inflation

6.2 Saturday 01 JUN 1991 - The Times - House price inflation

6.3 Saturday 01 JUN 1991 - The Times - Georgian furniture attracts top prices in house sale

6.4 Tuesday 04 JUN 1991 - The Times - 2% house price rise is biggest for year

6.5 Sunday 30 JUN 1991 - The Sunday Times - House price rises boost hopes in London, but recovery to be slow

7 July

7.1 Monday 08 JUL 1991 - The Times - House prices 'to stay static'

8 August

8.1 Thursday 08 AUG 1991 - The Times - Halifax building society revises its forecast on house prices

8.2 Thursday 22 AUG 1991 - The Times - House slump narrows North-South price gap

9 September

9.1 Sunday 08 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - Weekly watch on UK house prices

9.2 Wednesday 11 SEP 1991 - The Times - House prices

9.3 Sunday 29 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - House-price surge is on the way, but wait for it

9.4 Sunday 29 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - Sunday Times House Price Index;Property

10 October

10.1 Thursday 10 OCT 1991 - The Time - Fall in house prices dashes market hopes

10.2 Sunday 20 OCT 1991 - The Sunday Times - House prices fall by 2% despite interest rate cut

11 November

11.1 Tuesday 05 NOV 1991 - The Times - Maverick pays price for loans that were not safe as houses;Building societies

11.2 Thursday 21 NOV 1991 - The Times - Falling house prices

12 December

12.1 Thursday 05 DEC 1991 - The Times - Market weak

12.2 Wednesday 18 DEC 1991 - The Times - Builders hit by fear of more house price falls;Stock Market

12.3 Thursday 19 DEC 1991 - The Times - Record repossessions are keeping down house prices

12.4 Monday 30 DEC 1991 - The Times - House prices stuck 'till 1993'

 

1992

 

1 February

1.1 Thursday 06 FEB 1992 - The Times - Prices of houses fall 3.6% in year

2 March

2.1 Tuesday 03 MAR 1992 - The Times - No let-up in house price fall

2.2 Sunday 08 MAR 1992 - The Sunday Times - Budget butterflies hold off a rise in house prices

3 April

3.1 Wednesday 08 APR 1992 - The Times - House prices most at risk in South-East

4 May

4.1 Saturday 02 MAY 1992 - The Times - House prices begin to rise

4.2 Thursday 07 MAY 1992 - The Times - Lenders split on housing trends

4.3 Sunday 10 MAY 1992 - The Sunday Times - House price fall takes shine off interest rate cut

5 June

5.1 Tuesday 02 JUN 1992 - The Times - Falling house prices trap 2m borrowers

5.2 Thursday 04 JUN 1992 - The Times - House prices rise 0.4%

5.3 Sunday 07 JUN 1992 - The Sunday Times - The way out of the house price trap

5.4 Sunday 21 JUN 1992 - The Sunday Times - 'Boom days gone forever' as house prices still fall

5.5 Monday 29 JUN 1992 - The Times - Prices fall as auction houses chase bidders

6 July

6.1 Fri 03 JUL 1992 - The Times - Half-price house sale

6.2 Friday 10 JUL 1992 - The Times - House prices edge up

6.3 Sunday 26 JUL 1992 - The Sunday Times - House prices continue to drop as Major studies rescue plans

6.4 Tuesday 28 JUL 1992 - The Times - Buyers rush in for half-price houses;RAF houses in Lincolnshire

7 August

7.1 Sunday 09 AUG 1992 - The Sunday Times - House-price market spirals downward towards crisis

7.2 Monday 17 AUG 1992 - The Times - Price mentality holds key to housing market

8 September

8.1 Saturday 05 SEP 1992 - The Times - House prices down

8.2 Friday 18 SEP 1992 - The Times - Council tax based on 1991 house prices;Politics & Government

9 October

9.1 Saturday 03 OCT 1992 - The Times - House prices drop 1.4% in a month

9.2 Friday 09 OCT 1992 - The Times - Record fall in house prices

9.3 Saturday 10 OCT 1992 - The Times - House prices soared and slumped

9.4 Saturday 10 OCT 1992 - The Times - House prices

9.5 Monday 12 OCT 1992 - The Times - Flat prices fall more than houses

10 November

10.1 Sunday 01 NOV 1992 - The Sunday Times - Granite City house price rollercoaster takes a dip

10.2 Wednesday 04 NOV 1992 - The Times - House prices drop 4% in two months

10.3 Wednesday 04 NOV 1992 - The Times - House prices drop 4% in two months

10.4 Sunday 15 NOV 1992 - The Sunday Times - What price a council house with a resident Maxwell?

10.5 Thursday 19 NOV 1992 - The Times - £750m buy-out unlikely to boost house prices

10.6 SUunday 22 NOV 1992 - The Sunday Times - Council tax will mean new fall in house prices

10.7 Saturday 28 NOV 1992 - The Times - Bank sees further year of house price pain

 

1993

 

1 October

1.1 Saturday 02 OCT 1993 - The Times - Prices fall

1.2 Wednesday 06 OCT 1993 - The Times - Annual rise in house prices

1.3 Sunday 10 OCT 1993 - The Sunday Times - Tax change may hit house prices

1.4 Tuesday 12 OCT 1993 - The Times - Tay Homes knocked back by drop in house prices

2 November

2.1 Monday 01 NOV 1993 - The Times - Few houses can reach their lofty asking price

2.2 Wednesday 10 NOV 1993 - The Times - Put house price changes in RPIX

3 December

3.1 Sunday 05 DEC 1993 - The Sunday Times - House prices up;In today's other papers

3.2 Thursday 16 DEC 1993 - The Times - House price boom predicted for 1994

3.3 Friday 17 DEC 1993 - The Times - Experts back forecast of big rise in house prices

3.4 Wednesday 29 DEC 1993 - The Times - Gap in house prices narrows

 

 

1994

 

1 January

1.1 Sunday 02 JAN 1994 - The Sunday Times - Pundits agree on big rise in house prices this year

1.2 Thursday 06 JAN 1994 - The Times - House prices fall, says Halifax

2 February

2.1 Wednesday 02 FEB 1994 - The Times - House prices continue to improve

2.2 Thursday 03 FEB 1994 - The Times - House prices discord

2.3 Friday 04 FEB 1994 - The Times - Virtual reality in house prices

2.4 Tuesday 08 FEB 1994 - The Times - Bryant Group lifts house prices 16%

3 March

3.1 Thursday 03 MAR 1994 - The Times - House prices on rise

3.2 Sunday 06 MAR 1994 - The Sunday Times - House prices leap as more make a move

4 April

4.1 Sunday 03 APR 1994 - The Sunday Times - House-price rises cheer spring sellers

4.2 Monday 04 APR 1994 - The Times - House Prices

4.3 Thursday 07 APR 1994 - The Times - Bank figures reinforce signs of house price recovery

4.4 Thursday 14 APR 1994 - The Times - House prices show first annual rise in all areas

5 May

5.1 Thursday 05 MAY 1994 - The Times - Bellway warns on housing land prices

5.2 Thursday 26 MAY 1994 - The Times - Big noise cuts house price by Pounds 200,000

5.3 Friday 27 MAY 1994 - The Times - House price cut to `bargain' £5m

6 June

6.1 Friday 03 JUN 1994 - The Times - Fears for housing recovery as prices fall

6.2 Tuesday 14 JUN 1994 - The Times - London rises above house price gloom

6.3 Sunday 19 JUN 1994 - The Sunday Times - 40 House prices falter;In Today's Other Papers

7 July

7.1 Saturday 02 JUL 1994 - The Times - House prices 'stable'

8 August

8.1 Wednesday 03 AUG 1994 - The Times - Societies say house prices are rising

8.2 Monday 08 AUG 1994 - The Times - House sales may list price history

8.3 Tuesday 09 AUG 1994 - The Times - Woolwich predicts 3% rise in house prices

8.4 Friday 12 AUG 1994 - The Times - House prices 'should be published'

8.5 Friday 12 AUG 1994 - The Times - House prices 'should be published'

8.6 Friday 12 AUG 1994 - The Times - House prices 'should be published'

8.7 Friday 12 AUG 1994 - The Times - House prices 'should be published'

8.8 Wednesday 17 AUG 1994 - The Times - Access to house prices

8.9 Wednesday 17 AUG 1994 - The Times - Access to house prices

9 September

9.1 Friday 02 SEP 1994 - The Times - House prices show slight increase

10 October

10.1 Tuesday 04 OCT 1994 - The Times - House prices fall 2.9%

10.2 Thursday 20 OCT 1994 - The Times - House prices 'to rise 6%'

10.3 Sunday 23 OCT 1994 - The Sunday Times - Experts split on outlook for house prices

10.4 Monday 31 OCT 1994 - The Times - London house prices increase by 5%

11 November

11.1 Sunday 27 NOV 1994 - The Sunday Times - Paying the price for a 'non-standard' house;Personal Finance

11.2 Sunday 27 NOV 1994 - The Sunday Times - House prices rally

12 December

12.1 Thursday 01 DEC 1994 - The Times - Wainhomes beats flat house prices

12.2 Sunday 04 DEC 1994 - The Sunday Times - House prices show rise of up to 11%

 

 

1995

 

1 January

1.1 Sunday 01 JAN 1995 - The Sunday Times - House prices poised for modest recovery

1.2 Wednesday 11 JAN 1995 - The Times - House price optimism

2 Februrary

2.1 Thursday 02 FEB 1995 - The Times - House prices

2.2 Sunday 12 FEB 1995 - The Sunday Times - House prices set for a `five-year freeze'

3 March

3.1 Thursday 02 MAR 1995 - The Times - Manufacturing picks up but house prices stagnate

4 April

4.1 Wednesday 05 APR 1995 - The Times - House prices fall 1.5% as Halifax piles on gloom

5 May

5.1 Wednesday 03 MAY 1995 - The Times - Halifax reports further decline in house prices

5.2 Wednesday 17 MAY 1995 - The Times - Brewers cleared over prices for tied houses

5.3 Wednesday 24 MAY 1995 - The Times - House prices: Hamlet minus the Prince

5.4 Wednesday 24 MAY 1995 - The Times - Relief for young in falling house prices

5.5 Sunday 28 MAY 1995 - The Sunday Times - Boom time for north as house prices rocket

6 June

6.1 Friday 02 JUN 1995 - The Times - Major attacks `crazy house price spiral'

6.2 Saturday 03 JUN 1995 - The Times - Laying blame for house price spiral

6.3 Saturday 03 JUN 1995 - Laying blame for house price spiral - The Times

6.4 Saturday 03 JUN 1995 - The Times - Fall in house prices is accelerating says Halifax

6.5 Monday 05 JUN 1995 - The Times - House prices

7 July

7.1 Sunday 02 JUL 1995 - The Sunday Times - House price gloom

7.2 Sunday 02 JUL 1995 - The Sunday Times - New price slump dashes hopes of housing revival

7.3 Tuesday 04 JUL 1995 - The Times - House price slump fuels lenders' fears

7.4 Tuesday 04 JUL 1995 - The Times - New plea for help as house prices stay on the slide

7.5 Wednesday 12 JUL 1995 - The Times - Bad publicity hits house prices

7.6 Sunday 30 JUL 1995 - The Sunday Times - Revealed: how lenders force down house prices

8 August

8.1 Wednesday 02 AUG 1995 - The Times - More gloom for housing as prices keep falling

8.2 Sunday 20 AUG 1995 - The Sunday Times -Lower prices win quick house sales

9 September

9.1 Saturday 02 SEP 1995 - The Times - Cheaper loans as house prices fall Lenders cut rates to lift homes market

9.2 Saturday 16 SEP 1995 - The Times - House prices

10 October

10.1 Wednesday 11 OCT 1995 - The Times - House prices falling

10.2 Tuesday 17 OCT 1995 - The Times - House prices stable

10.3 Sunday 22 OCT 1995 - The Sunday Times - Assembly could govern house prices

11 November

11.1 Thursday 02 NOV 1995 - The Times - House prices down 3.9%

11.2 Monday 27 NOV 1995 - The Times - Negative equity 'overstated'

12 December

12.1 Wednesday 20 DEC 1995 - The Times - Putting a price on houses in 1996

12.2 Wednesday 27 DEC 1995 - The Times - Halifax forecasts 2% recovery in house prices next year

12.3 Thursday 28 DEC 1995 - The Times - Lies, statistics and house prices

12.4 Sunday 31 DEC 1995 - The Sunday Times - House prices set to rise, say lenders

 

 

And then the recovery 1996

 

1 January

1.1 Wednesday 03 JAN 1996 - The Times - House prices remain lower than a year ago

1.2 Wednesday 24 JAN 1996 - The Times - The Nobel laureate, his wife and how expectation moves house prices

1.3 Sunday 28 JAN 1996 - The Sunday Times - Lenders predict patchy rise in house prices

2 February

2.1 FRI 02 FEB 1996 - The Times - House prices rise again

3 March

3.1 SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Housing market starts on the road to recovery;Prices likely to rise 2%-4% this year

3.2 SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Housing market starts on the road to recovery; A gentle pick-up, not a boom

3.3 SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Blair's housing ideas rejected

3.4 SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Time to shop around for fee-free mortgage

3.5 SUN 10 MAR 1996 - The Sunday Times - Women trapped by negative equity

4 April

4.1 TUE 02 APR 1996 - The Times - House prices rise

4.2 SAT 06 APR 1996 - The Times - Rising prices and falling costs boost housing market

4.3 FRI 12 APR 1996 - The Times - Debt trap eased by housing price rise

4.4 WED 24 APR 1996 - The Times - House prices in Scotland hit by sharp fall in 1995

4.5 TUE 30 APR 1996 - The Times - Putting a spin on house prices

5 May

5.1 THU 02 MAY 1996 - The Times - House prices rise in 'fragile' market

5.2 SUN 05 MAY 1996 - The Sunday Times - House prices continue to rise

5.3 THU 09 MAY 1996 - The Times - UBS lifts house price forecast

6 June

6.1 SUN 30 JUN 1996 - The Sunday Times - A "mini boom" in house prices

6.2 TUE 02 JUL 1996 - The Times - House prices show signs of levelling

6.3 SAT 06 JUL 1996 - The Times - Artificially low house prices are luring buyers into a frenzy of competitive bidding

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For me, these were the key parts of the Moneyweek House price panel discussion

 

Stuart: We have to be very clear here.

You’ve got the retail house-price indices, which are down about 17% on average.

Then you’ve got distressed prices, which are down far more. In December it was

40% off at auction. We were able to buy at about 50% off peak pricing. But that’s

not the normal housebuyers’ market. And on retail prices, Nationwide’s data, for

example, are bouncing strongly. The whole last quarter is up 4.6%.

 

James: Do you know how many monthly rallies there were in the last housing

selloff? More than 20.

 

. . .

James: ...you’ve got limited supply because you’ve got no forced sellers, the quickest

way to generate forced sellers is to boost unemployment. So while there’s no set

relationship between unemployment and house prices, it’s not right to say that it

won’t matter when unemployment goes up sharply. It’s bound to tip a lot of

forced sellers on to the market.

 

. . .

Stuart: What dictates prices is supply and demand. For James to be correct we’d

have to see a significant jump in supply – far greater than any increase in demand –

or demand falling away.

 

James: Supply and demand of what? You are making the classic mistake of

thinking that what matters for property prices is supply and demand of property. But what is

my demand for property in terms of square metres? Unlimited. So what really

matters is the supply and demand – or supply and price of – credit.

. . .

If you want to know what happened to actual demand for houses to live in, you look at rents. And

real rents went down for five of the six years before this downturn started. So there was

no shortage of housing per se.

 

Meantime:

UK GDP Down again

The latest figures take the annual rate of decline to 5.6%, the biggest fall since records began in 1955.

 

192.gif

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8166457.stm

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

 

What a great time to be buying overpriced property !

 

THEY DIDNT TALK ABOUT IT this time,

But by next year it might be a big subject: the DEPOPULATION OF LONDON

 

This will happen as people lose their jobs, and move away, seeking a cheaper place to live.

It might mean moving back to Poland, or city expats moving back to their countries of origin,

or it might be redundant ex-goverment workers just going someplace where their redundancy

money will go further.

 

In Detroit, we have seen what decades of depopulation can do to a cities house prices.

And we are beginning to see the same thing in California, where many prices are off 50%.

 

Those "smart and well-to-do buyers" that Stuart Law was talking about are going to get very

fearful, and reluctant to buy, when they see that rents keep crumbling, and there arent

enough buyers around to absorb the forced selling.

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So what really

matters is the supply and demand – or supply and price of – credit.

 

EVERYTHING pivots on this. The monetary system has.... hard to find polite language here, but you now what I mean. It is just not going to go back to normal, especially when you consider that "normal" was actually abnormal in the first place. Properties were massively over-inflated to pay for over-inflated lifestyles and egos.

 

EVERYONE, bankers, consumers and government were caught up in a booming bubble-like Disneyland. In America they only had Disneyland there so it could be pointed to and people could say "No, that is fantasy land, relax, don't worry, you are living in reality". :lol:

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...

THEY DIDNT TALK ABOUT IT this time,

But by next year it might be a big subject: the DEPOPULATION OF LONDON

 

This will happen as people lose their jobs, and move away, seeking a cheaper place to live.

It might mean moving back to Poland, or city expats moving back to their countries of origin,

or it might be redundant ex-goverment workers just going someplace where their redundancy

money will go further.

 

In Detroit, we have seen what decades of depopulation can do to a cities house prices.

And we are beginning to see the same thing in California, where many prices are off 50%.

 

Those "smart and well-to-do buyers" that Stuart Law was talking about are going to get very

fearful, and reluctant to buy, when they see that rents keep crumbling, and there arent

enough buyers around to absorb the forced selling.

Bubb, I think you are spot on. People who are flexible enough are possibly going to leave the UK altogether (I don't exclude myself here). If the rumors are true that Lloyds will shed 40,000 jobs (Lloyds/HBoS have 140,000 altogether, I think, so this is less than 1/3), if you think that RBS will have to do something very similar sometime soon, you can only imagine what this will do for house prices in London, Edinburgh and the surroundings. And most of these people won't find new jobs IMO. Add rising interest rates to that mix, and voila.

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Bubb, I think you are spot on. People who are flexible enough are possibly going to leave the UK altogether (I don't exclude myself here). If the rumors are true that Lloyds will shed 40,000 jobs (Lloyds/HBoS have 140,000 altogether, I think, so this is less than 1/3), if you think that RBS will have to do something very similar sometime soon, you can only imagine what this will do for house prices in London, Edinburgh and the surroundings. And most of these people won't find new jobs IMO. Add rising interest rates to that mix, and voila.

 

Why is no one talking about this?

The depopulation is already showing up in the latest statistics, but people seem to be unaware

 

The increase in taxes, is already causing quite a few highly paid people to leave, and I am sure that more are talking about it.

 

Some of these people are arriving in Hong Kong now. It is a noticeable trend

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Why is no one talking about this?

The depopulation is lareday showing up in the latest statistics, but people seem to be unaware

 

The increase in taxes, is already causing quite a few highly paid people to leave, and I am sure that more are talking about it.

 

Some of these people are arriving in Hong Kong now. It is a noticeable trend

My wife is taking our sons to HK later this year to get their residency rights sorted and ID cards issued.

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My wife is taking our sons to HK later this year to get their residency rights sorted and ID cards issued.

 

Half of the people that looked around my house were acompanied by their parents to help with the deposit.

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