UK House prices: News & Views

[GenghisKhan]

Nice post GK (very nice).

 

I haven't checked the data myself, but from your post it looks like a great example of the AM-GM inequality. (i.e. AM always bigger than, or equal to, the GM).

 

 

 

Aint that the truth .

 

Cheers JD

If you look at the long right tail of the sales data in the post I linked to I also can't help but feel that GM is the right metric in this instance. Makes the LR data sit fairly comfortably with me as an indicator of what's going on in the real world.

[Meralti]

If you read the link you'll see I've calculated the Arithmetic Mean for sold properties (dat from land Registry). While not perfect that's far closer to the Rightmove calculation. Comparing Rightmove Average Asking prices with my calcuated Average Sold prices shows they are close to each other. (Look at the second chart).

 

There is not Delusion. People are paying what is being asked give or take a few %.

 

An rather odd conclusion. I think a better comparison would be between the Land registry's final sold prices calculated using the geometric mean and the geometric mean of the Rightmove series. The RM index would then need to be adjusted backwards in time to take account of the time lack of the LR series.

 

As I stated RM tracks initial asking prices and takes no account of subsequent reductions or even whether a property sells or not. A property can easily be listed at a 50% premium and never sell. THe RM index would still count this datum as valid for the index. This and the fact RM uses the arthimetic mean is why the index is always much higher.

 

I've seen houses listed at £500k and reduced to 475 to 450 to 425 to 400 and still sit unsold for over a year. RM will count the initial 500k as valid data. This property will never have reached the LR numbers.

 

If it is possible to get hold of the RM data series it would be worth calucating the GM and from that calcuating the ration with the LR. You would then be comparing apples with apples and not allowing a few statistic outiers to skew the index. This would be a true delusion index. I would expect this to be around 15 -20 % higher than the LR number giving a ratio of 1.15 to 1.2.

[drbubb]

London 'to be overtaken by New York and Hong Kong' for finance jobs

 

11 November 2012

London is on course to lose its top spot as the world's biggest financial centre by number of jobs.

 

The number of jobs in financial services in London will be below the number in New York and Hong Kong by 2015, according to the Sunday Times.

London is losing its dominance due to a shift to the east, according to researchers at Cebr, the economic consultancy, but also due to "short-sighted over-regulation, penal taxation and banker bashing" in the UK.

The Government could reportedly lose about £30 billion to £40 billion a year in tax receipts because of the decline in City activity, compared with revenues received at the peak of 2007.

 

London's financial services sector employed 280,000 people in 2011, compared with 262,000 people in New York.

However, City jobs will fall to 249,500 this year against 254,000 for America's financial capital, according to the Cebr.

 

By 2015, London will employ 237,000 - a third less than at the peak in 2007 - against 249,700 in New York and 247,900 in Hong Kong.

Cebr economist Rob Harbron told the Sunday Times: "Hong Kong has jumped from half London's size to overtaking London within a decade."

 

/see: http://www.standard....bs-8304763.html

 

Who is buying all those expensive new properties?

Many are being bought by people from HK

[drbubb]

Mortgage approvals plunged by nearly a fifth in September,

 

a survey said today, amid warnings that a multibillion-pound lending scheme will take time to have an impact.

 

The total number of house purchase loans approved in September was 44,400, down 18% from 53,900 in the previous month and down 9% on the same month last year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said.

However, the number of remortgaging loans increased month-on-month to 24,600 in September.

The CML figures clash with lending figures released by the Bank of England at the end of last month which said the number of loans approved for house purchase rose in September in a tentative sign its Funding for Lending scheme (FLS) was working.

The Bank reported an encouraging start to the £80 billion initiative, with 30 groups signed up, but the CML warned it would take time to filter through to lending.

===

/more: http://www.standard....es-8306730.html

 

 

A very meaningful drop ! The Lowest figure since early 2009

(except Dec. 2010)

 

===

Mortgage Approvals

= : - 2006 - / - 2007 - / - 2008- / - 2009- / - 2010- / - 2011- / - 2012- /

 

J. : 121,000 : 121,000 : 73,000 : 31,000 : 48,198 : 45,723 : 58,728

F : 115,000 : 120,000 : 72,000 : 37,937 : 47,094 : 46,967 : 48,986

M : 117,000 : 114,000 : 64,000 : 39,230 : 48,901 : 47,557 : 49,860

A : 108,000 : 109,000 : 58,000 : 43,201 : 49,871 : 45,166 : 51,823

M : 115,000 : 113,000 : 42,000 : 43,414 : 49,815 : 45,940 : 51,089

J. : 119,000 : 113,000 : 36,000 : 47,584 : 47,643 : 48,421 : 44,192

Jl : 117,000 : 112,000 : 33,000 : 50,123 : 48,722 : 49,239 : 47,312

A : 118,000 : 106,000 : 32,000 : 52,317 : 47,372 : 52,410 : 53,900

S : 124,000 : 100,000 : 33,000 : 56,215 : 47,474 : 50,967 : 44,400

O : 129,000 : 089,000 : 32,000 : 57,345 : 47,185 : 52,743

N : 131,000 : 083,000 : 27,000 : 60,518 : 48,019 : 52,854

D : 115,000 : 072,000 : 31,000 : 59,023 : 42,563 : 52,939

[John Doe]

Mortgage approvals plunged by nearly a fifth in September,

 

a survey said today, amid warnings that a multibillion-pound lending scheme will take time to have an impact.

 

The total number of house purchase loans approved in September was 44,400, down 18% from 53,900 in the previous month and down 9% on the same month last year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said.

However, the number of remortgaging loans increased month-on-month to 24,600 in September.

The CML figures clash with lending figures released by the Bank of England at the end of last month which said the number of loans approved for house purchase rose in September in a tentative sign its Funding for Lending scheme (FLS) was working.

The Bank reported an encouraging start to the £80 billion initiative, with 30 groups signed up, but the CML warned it would take time to filter through to lending.

 

 

No great surprise, as all over the press the government was saying how mortgage rates were about to drop (and drop they have) .

 

Obviously those looking to get a mortgage just waited.

 

 

The quarterly figure were better (apparently).

 

Activity in the UK housing market has continued to pick up slightly despite some monthly fluctuations in the figures, a lenders' group has said.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-20297315

[drbubb]

(Duplicate post from DrB's Diary - also look at BDEV: 186.8p down 0.43% yesterday):

 

The A-B-C down in UK Property prices, still needs a C down, before it bottoms

 

Back in 2008, this chart was posted on GEI:

 

 

So what happened ?:

 

Since 2002:

 

 

Since 2009: (up to June 2012: £164,489)

 

Latest: Oct. 2012 : £161,986

[GenghisKhan]

An rather odd conclusion. I think a better comparison would be between the Land registry's final sold prices calculated using the geometric mean and the geometric mean of the Rightmove series. The RM index would then need to be adjusted backwards in time to take account of the time lack of the LR series.

 

As I stated RM tracks initial asking prices and takes no account of subsequent reductions or even whether a property sells or not. A property can easily be listed at a 50% premium and never sell. THe RM index would still count this datum as valid for the index. This and the fact RM uses the arthimetic mean is why the index is always much higher.

 

I've seen houses listed at £500k and reduced to 475 to 450 to 425 to 400 and still sit unsold for over a year. RM will count the initial 500k as valid data. This property will never have reached the LR numbers.

 

If it is possible to get hold of the RM data series it would be worth calucating the GM and from that calcuating the ration with the LR. You would then be comparing apples with apples and not allowing a few statistic outiers to skew the index. This would be a true delusion index. I would expect this to be around 15 -20 % higher than the LR number giving a ratio of 1.15 to 1.2.

 

As far as I'm aware only the Land Registry release their raw data. Therefore the only 'Delusion Index' I can create is the time adjusted RM Non Seasonally Adjusted Non Mix Adjusted AM divided by the LR Non Seasonally Adjusted Non Mix Adjusted AM. It's far better than anybody elses data that I have seen as at least I'm comparing green apples with red apples rather than apples and bananas. That ratio suggests no 'delusion'.

 

I agree with you that if I could get the RM raw data we'd be looking at an even better comparator by converting that AM to a GM. Unfortunately I just can't get the data.

[John Doe]

Home ownership lowest for 24 years!

 

Five million aspiring homeowners are being shut out of the housing market in the wake of a decade of declining home ownership, according to a new report by advocacy group the HomeOwners Alliance. It said levels of home ownership are at a 24-year low of 64.7pc, down from a peak of 69.7pc in 2002.

 

http://uk.finance.ya...-211044044.html

 

The authors warned of adverse social and economic impacts from continued decline, predicting housing benefit for old people will double by 2060 as growing numbers enter retirement without owning their home.

 

Another point often missed about owning your own home.

 

Everyone else doesn't have to pay for you, to pay a landlord, for the rest of your life from retirement to death (assuming you haven't got a half decent pension either).

[drbubb]

Home ownership lowest for 24 years!

 

Another point often missed about owning your own home.

Everyone else doesn't have to pay for you, to pay a landlord, for the rest of your life from retirement to death (assuming you haven't got a half decent pension either).

 

It might be useful to separate debt-free home ownership, from the other sort, where you are enslaved to a bank's mortgage

 

If you have 100% mortgage, you dont really own anything

[John Doe]

It might be useful to separate debt-free home ownership, from the other sort, where you are enslaved to a bank's mortgage

 

If you have 100% mortgage, you dont really own anything

 

Yeah, except a hell of a lot more rights than those renting with the stupid AST crap we have in the UK.

 

However, the general idea is to pay off the mortgage before you retire .

[drbubb]

Yeah, except a hell of a lot more rights than those renting with the stupid AST crap we have in the UK.

However, the general idea is to pay off the mortgage before you retire .

Yeah,

since that will deliver a much-reduced Cost of Living - that's great when you no longer have a salary

[John Doe]

Yeah,

since that will deliver a much-reduced Cost of Living - that's great when you no longer have a salary

 

I'm hoping it'll be pretty great while I still have a salary

 

Mortgage free is where I wannba be!

[drbubb]

Yeah.

Even better to be debtfree with a salary.

 

Debtfree where:

======

+ You do not need a car (it's okay to own one)

+ School fees are not too heavy

+ You can grow some food in your own garden

+ Water is available (capture rainwater?), and you can put solar cells on your own home

 

In short, you are close to self-sustaining.

Then you can easily bear the future price volatility that may lie ahead - And the salary is like a bonus

[John Doe]

Yeah.

Even better to be debtfree with a salary.

 

Debtfree where:

======

+ You do not need a car (it's okay to own one)

+ School fees are not too heavy

+ You can grow some food in your own garden

+ Water is available (capture rainwater?), and you can put solar cells on your own home

 

In short, you are close to self-sustaining.

Then you can easily bear the future price volatility that may lie ahead - And the salary is like a bonus

 

Yep, that's the plan and our local, excellent, schools are free here (well included in your tax).

[drbubb]

Yep, that's the plan and our local, excellent, schools are free here (well included in your tax).

 

If too many people withdraw for Mainstream (taxable) activities, the schools will not stay free

[drbubb]

Delusion Melting? Or Just a Normal Seasonal Drop?

Righmove's asking prices are down in November

 

Key points

• New sellers drop asking prices by 2.6% (-£6,407), the least severe November fall for three years
  

• Prices up by 2% (+£4,617) year-on-year – the highest annual rate of increase seen in November since 2007 and still up by 0.2% year-on-year with the ‘London effect’ removed
  

• Further positive signs for the market:
  - Rightmove search activity up 20% and enquiries up 11% on same time last year
  - Supply tightening in lower price brackets pushing up prices on terraces and flats by over 4%
  - Bank of England reports mortgage approvals up 9.2% on last quarter
  

• Diminished equity restricts preparation for new year marketing, with only 17% of sellers willing or able to spend on a ‘make-over’ even if they would achieve a higher price
  
• ===
  
• http://www.rightmove...x/november-2012
  
• ===
  
• PDF : http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/11/november-2012.pdf
  

[drbubb]

New sellers drop asking prices by 2.6% (-£6,407), the least severe November fall for three years

 

Prices up by 2% (+£4,617) year-on-year – the highest annual rate of increase seen in November since 2007 and still up by 0.2% year-on-year with the ‘London effect’ removed

The usual horse-pucky from RM.

The Sept-Oct jump this year was "less than normal" too/

Prices have dropped back to very near August levels, which is completely normal,

and is nothing special AT ALL !

 

Do these jerks actually THINK when they look at their data, or do they simply spin.

[Roddy]

Er - this thread has has over 4500 responses - any view on whether we can plot replies per month vs house prices?

[drbubb]

that would take a lot of time,

and i am not sure how fruitful it would be

[drbubb]

My four-in-one flats will re-invent the way we live, says ex-Dragons' Den star

 

<img alt="Yahoo! News" class="yiv434661182logo" style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outline: none;" title="" />By Simon Garner | Yahoo! News – 16 hours ago, 20 NOV 2012

 

Source link: http://uk.news.yahoo...e-19112012.html

 

Click on http://yo.co.uk/ to view the video and share with your students. It is cool. The materials are gloss finished, which do NOT attract dusts.

 

The four-in-one apartment

News Video 1:37An ex-Dragons' Den star wants to revolutionise the property market by building luxury homes inside the …

 

 

 

A former star of BBC hit TV show Dragons' Den wants to revolutionise the property market by building luxury homes boasting several 'rooms' inside a tiny studio flat space.

Simon Woodroffe has created a home which offers four times the rooms within the confines of a typical one-bedroom flat.

 

His YO! Home prototype works by hiding rooms which then appear at the touch of a button or the pull of a wall - with an amazing bedroom lowered down from the ceiling.

[drbubb]

Yo Home / see previous, or: http://yo.co.uk

Hmm. Seems great, so long as:

 

+ You do not need a change of clothes

+ You don't have a suitcase

+ You don't own a book, or want to store 1-2 weeks of different foods

+ The counter-weight systems never break down or require maintenance

 

 

What it I don't drink wine, and want to store a bicycle instead

 

It looks enormously impractical to me

 

It is like a Hong Kong show flat: No one can actually LIVE in one of those

[Jake]

Yo ho ho! What a load of todge. The Japanese have been living in cubby holes (living cofins), too. It doesn't make sense with reality, like so much design stuff. They try to ignore (or love to forget) that people are human, not robots and have kids (well, used to), pets, collate stuff and get tired of living a life like in the back of a camper van. Surely HK show flats are better than this the way they are priced.

Have you ever stayed in a capsule hotel? (rather like a morgue-except you wake up in the morning (hopefully)-).

 

Who's the idiot in the hat with nowhere to hang it?

[TestIcicle]

Yo Home / see previous, or: http://yo.co.uk

Hmm. Seems great, so long as:

 

+ You do not need a change of clothes

+ You don't have a suitcase

+ You don't own a book, or want to store 1-2 weeks of different foods

+ The counter-weight systems never break down or require maintenance

 

 

It looks enormously impractical to me [...] No one can actually LIVE in one of those

 

I think it looks quite attractive if you had a legitimate need for a (whisper it) "city crash pad". I have colleagues who have 2 bedroom flats in London where they live in the week, alone, whilst the family homes are in places like Cambridge and Manchester.

 

Is it not perhaps more economical and ethical for these 2nd homers to have these smaller and flexible apartment spaces, and leaving the 1 and 2 bed flats to the young singles and couples to have as first time buyers, just as they start out in life.

 

It's just a case of understanding the market. If these little homes aren't overpriced (ha ha) they could fill a handy niche.

 

But absolutely agree it would be hellish for a couple with pets, kids and who dared to use their own bikes instead of Boris's!

[Van]

If the price of their homes is anything like the price of their sushi, you can count me out.

 

Yo Home / see previous, or: http://yo.co.uk

Hmm. Seems great, so long as:

 

+ You do not need a change of clothes

+ You don't have a suitcase

+ You don't own a book, or want to store 1-2 weeks of different foods

+ The counter-weight systems never break down or require maintenance

 

 

What it I don't drink wine, and want to store a bicycle instead

 

It looks enormously impractical to me

 

It is like a Hong Kong show flat: No one can actually LIVE in one of those

[TestIcicle]

If the price of their homes is anything like the price of their sushi, you can count me out.

 

I thought Japan was set to be swallowed by the sea sometime soon anyway*? The advantage being that if your home, being a physical asset, is smaller, you practically lost much less in this scenario, if you survive that particular apocalypse.

 

 

--

*That's what some soothsayers are proclaiming anyway... on "another" thread...