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UK House prices: News & Views

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Not exactly a fair comparison. Asking prices in London, Vs approved mortgages for whole UK

 

If London "breaks through the ceiling", it may drag UK Prices higher

 

Meantime, if you look at Rest-of-UK Prices, it looks as if they have made a nice Double bottom

 

ukhaliwrest13.png

 

xx

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London cannot drag the rest of the UK higher

the rest of the UK is maxxed out . Do they start raising the multiples again ?

Bring back liarloans ? 125% mortgages ?

If London goes up its just the influx of foreign money into the elite areas

do these investors pump their money into Glasgow or Newcastle ?

How many new btl landlords are going to get onboard ?

How many old btl landlords fancy another spin on the roulette wheel

Let London inflate and let this bubble of corruption burst

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Hmmmmm.

Do I detect a bear turning bullish?

No more crash cruise speed?

(Then again, it is April 1st :rolleyes: )

 

April 1st or not, this chart is at a possible Double Bottom - so maybe wave 4 is done...

 

ukhaliwrest13pred.png

 

A rise to test (or nearly test) the old high over GBP 180K may be inspired by the Tories Deposit give-away scheme.

Selling in London (at much higher prices) and buying outside may be wise and prudent now, especially if your job

and living situation permits such a well-timed down-sizing.

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what probability do you give of a double bottom being a bullish signal?

 

I would say better than 50/50, probably much better than 50/50, assuming the deposit scheme stays in place.

 

If you want to "hedge you bets", selling in London, and buying more cheaply outside looks to be a good move.

Or maybe (if you are "a betting man") even buying cheap now, and looking to sell in London after a further 5 -10% rise, which will cover maybe 10-20% of your purchase cost, and allow you to ride the cheap deposit scheme on your purchase.

 

I think the Tories are playing Greenspan's game now, of juicing housing to get the UK out of recession. We saw how that worked in the USA, and now the UK will have a chance to repeat this trick in a more dangerous way.

 

If you buy outside London, I recommend to avoid anywhere that is too car-dependent.

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London cannot drag the rest of the UK higher

the rest of the UK is maxxed out . Do they start raising the multiples again ?

Bring back liarloans ? 125% mortgages ?

 

Why the incredulous tone? Of course LTV multiples are going to rise.- that's now explicit government policy. And I think it's clear that the govt would also like to see income multiples rise, and yes some new form of liar loans too.

 

Come to think of it, the deposit guarantee and interest-free loan schemes are structured to allow a new type of liar loan. The schemes are "intended" to assist purchasers of first homes, but Osborne has been explicit that there will no checks and no enforcement of this "intention."

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I believe a collapse of the housing market is the plan

theres a lot of people with a noose round their necks already and lots of lovely assets to be

removed from them for pennies in the £. Maybe they just want a few more sheeple to add to the

pile of misery thats coming. My incredulity is that people would actually fall for this again .

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I believe a collapse of the housing market is the plan

theres a lot of people with a noose round their necks already and lots of lovely assets to be

removed from them for pennies in the £. Maybe they just want a few more sheeple to add to the

pile of misery thats coming. My incredulity is that people would actually fall for this again .

 

Many in London never suffered much the last downturn - including many hoary BTL landlords

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(The latest wheeze being promoted in HK):

 

35 Minutes to London Euston

Hemel Hampstead Investment Property : link

 

19086883.jpg

 

Fabulous mixed-use development; introducing an enticing collection of apartments, small shops and coffee bars to the heart of Hemel Hempstead.

  • Rental investment property
  • One bedroom apartments £150,800
  • Two Bedroom apartments £240,400
  • Near Riverside Canals & Shopping Centre
  • London Euston in 35 minutes
  • Door to door
  • Shuttle service to train station
  • Runs during peak commute times
  • Excellent Rental Investment
  • Properties with two year rental guarantees
  • Yields of 5%
  • 3rd floor apartments all have very large private terraces
  • Concierge service

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(The latest wheeze being promoted in HK):

 

35 Minutes to London Euston

Hemel Hampstead Investment Property : link

 

19086883.jpg

 

Fabulous mixed-use development; introducing an enticing collection of apartments, small shops and coffee bars to the heart of Hemel Hempstead.

  • Rental investment property
  • One bedroom apartments £150,800
  • Two Bedroom apartments £240,400
  • Near Riverside Canals & Shopping Centre
  • London Euston in 35 minutes
  • Door to door
  • Shuttle service to train station
  • Runs during peak commute times
  • Excellent Rental Investment
  • Properties with two year rental guarantees
  • Yields of 5%
  • 3rd floor apartments all have very large private terraces
  • Concierge service

 

That used to be the old Kodak UK headquarters.

 

Edit: And it's actually Hemel Hempstead. Nice try to make it sound London-esque!

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That used to be the old Kodak UK headquarters.

 

Edit: And it's actually Hemel Hempstead. Nice try to make it sound London-esque!

 

An estate agent's trick - they might have called it "Greater Hamptead"

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Has anyone seen these yet?

 

littlevenice.jpg

 

47 new built canalside apartments in Little Venice, London:

 

· Luxurious 1, 2 and 3 bedroom canalside apartments and penthouses, all with water-facing balconies

· Minutes’ walk to two underground stations - Royal Oak (Circle line and Hammersmith & City line) and Warwick Avenue (Bakerloo line)

· 2 minutes by tube to Paddington Station’s national rail services and the Heathrow Express

· 24-hour concierge & security service

· High specification with underfloor heating system

· 999-year lease

· Anticipated completion from February 2015

 

Brochure & floor plan are available at below link:

http://f.tlcollect.c...il_version).pdf

 

Huh?

Over GBP 500K, for 1BR - Are they kidding?

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Halifax House Price Index - March 2013

HPI_Press.jpg

House prices in the first three months of 2013 were 1.2% higher than in the final three months of 2012 according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.

 

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"The housing market continues to show signs of modest improvement. Prices in the first three months of 2013 were 1.2% higher than in the preceding quarter (fourth consecutive increase). Prices were 1.1% higher than in the first three months of 2012. House sales also continued to rise, according to the latest industry-wide figures.

"Weak income growth and continuing below-trend economic growth are likely to remain significant constraints on housing demand during the remainder of this year. Overall, we expect to see a modest increase in UK house prices during 2013."

 

Key facts

  • House prices in the first three months of 2013 were 1.2% higher than in the final three months of 2012. This was the fourth successive increase in this measure.
  • Prices in the three months to March were 1.1% higher than in the first months of 2012.This was the third consecutive rise in this annual measure.
  • House prices increased by 0.2% in March. This followed a 0.5% rise in February.
  • Activity increases further. Home sales increased by 5% between January and February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest industry figures. Sales in February,at 85,710, were 10% higher than in February 2012 (Source: HMRC). The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales – however, fell by 5% between January and February to its lowest level since September 2012 (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures).
  • The chancellor announced a package of housing measures in last month's Budget consisting of two elements – Help to Buy: equity loan and Help to Buy: mortgage
    guarantee. The aims of the package are to: (i) increase the supply of low-deposit mortgages for credit-worthy households, (ii) boost levels of housebuilding and (iii) contribute to economic growth

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/press_releases/2013_press_releases/halifax/050413_HPI.asp

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Housing market set to return to pre-crash levels

 

Britain is poised for a housing market revival as the market gives its strongest performance since the crash, according to a leading economic forecaster.

 

Street-value_2480285b.jpg

 

More than 1m transactions will take place by the end of the year, representing the most activity since 2007 when there were nearly 1.8m. Photo: © Alamy

 

By Emma Rowley / 14 Apr 2013

 

More than 1m transactions will take place by the end of the year, representing the most activity since 2007 when there were nearly 1.8m, according to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club. The following year, the market dipped to a low of around 900,000.

 

After staying roughly flat this year, house prices will start to rise in tandem, up by 2.1pc in 2014, before rises of 5pc and 6pc over the following two years, according to its spring forecasts published on Monday.

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Surprised ? / Seems like no one is... the postings have dried up on this thread

 

 

Telegraph.co.uk - ‎4 hours ago‎

House-sellers have raised the average asking price by 2.1pc to £244,706, setting a new record for this time of year, according to the Rightmove property website.

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(The UK economy continues to be "housing dependent", and that cannot be a good thing)

 

Housing market predicted to revive in 2013 with more than 1m to ...

The Guardian-5 hours ago

House moves are also expected to be encouraged by falling mortgage costs due to the Bank ofEngland's Funding for Lending scheme.

 

 

UK 'dependent' on property market

Evening Standard-5 hours ago ... The UK will be "heavily dependent" on the property market this year, with one million house transactions set to offset continued eurozone woes.

 

 

The Ernst & Young Item Club's spring forecast warns that the UK will have to wait until 2015 before exports start contributing positively to growth.

It expects GDP to expand by just 0.6% this year and that, with the rebalancing of the economy on hold, the UK will again have to rely on the consumer.

This year's forecast 7.5% rise in housing transactions comes as mortgage costs start to fall due to the Government and Bank of England's Funding for Lending scheme. And in last month's budget, Chancellor George Osborne announced plans to underwrite £130 billion of mortgages from next year.

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Surprised ? / Seems like no one is... the postings have dried up on this thread

 

Some of us aren't suprised at all.

 

For the last couple of years, you all were bangining on about crash cruise speed etc, while one or two of us predicted the nominal low would be in 2012, and that was nearly two years back, when it was clear that the peculiarities of the UK and their affair with housing, and the PTB requirement to stop them falling to far, became obvious.

 

 

We were slammed (often very rudely) for having such outrageous views. Yet, here we are.

 

As we said many times, never underestimate the lengths the PTB will go to keep house prices high. The banks would collapse otherwise. (They think that would be bad).

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Who was right?

I think it depends on what prices you are looking at.

 

The Bulls can look at London, and say they called it right.

 

While the Bears look at UK-Haliwide, or Rest of UK.

 

London has been the "great divide."

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Who was right?

 

It’s not really a matter of who was right, although you were certainly wrong on this one :D .

 

I think it depends on what prices you are looking at.

 

The Bulls can look at London, and say they called it right.

 

While the Bears look at UK-Haliwide, or Rest of UK.

 

Not really.

 

We were all talking about the UK as a whole (as the indices pointed out). Everyone knew that certain parts of London were different and these had seen their nominal low in 2009 (perhaps except for a few diehards that repeatedly kept trying to say London was falling and it would all collapse).

 

Indeed, going further, we, (the one or two less bearish), often pointed out that good houses in good areas were easily outperforming not-so-nice properties in less affluent areas, and regularly pointed out that there isn’t single market in the country, just many smaller ones. However, taking the country as a whole, it is no surprise at all to see nominal prices essentially flat over the last year or two, and unlikely to fall much further, if at all in the coming few years.

 

 

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I don't think you should be in any hurry to call me Wrong.

 

My system works fine... and it has been simple: Watch BDEV ... as an early warning

 

53683261.gif

 

Best forecaster for London price? BDEV

 

gpkfpc.png

 

Meantime, I waited for a Low in UK and Rest-of-UK, and started saying we may have seen one some time ago:

 

UK

ukhaliwuk.png

 

Rest-of-UK

ukhaliwrest.png

 

Have we seen the end of any possible Price Drop?

No. Not IMHO. When interest rates rise, many people will find themselves "exposed."

But the new government policy should deliver at least several months of price increases.

 

What's your system?

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Oh come on, really. You were constantly going on about crash cruise speed etc for years, and all the time BDEV, your Bellwether, continued to rise (try overlaying BDEV with Land reg figures).

 

Only recently have you suggested a bottom might be in (for now).

 

As for my “system”, it’s based on watching the market over decades, living in many parts of the UK and knowing people from all walks of life (with whom I still have regular contact), reading books from authors like Pretcher, Boner and Harrison etc, and then, when they began to appear about 2004, taking in all the views on sites like this and HPC, learning how the PTB work to keep the system going at any cost (and the lengths they go to), and I also watch how most of the country are doing, and don't just concentrate on the poor sods who are being hammered by this crisis (as the perma-bears always do), and then I make up my own mind from the information I’ve assembled from all these sources.

 

TBH, it’s served me very well thank you, as my historical posts here clearly show. From my concerns it was all a big ponzy from way back before HPC (my posts started here from ~2006 and explained, long before the 2007 downturn, how I'd been thinking it had all been crazy since 2002-3) to my STR’ing in late 2007, and buying back in the dip of 2009 when it was clear that QE, here and abroad, along with other government interventions, was going to stabilise things and the financial collapse we were concerned about was averted and unlikely to happen for at least another 20 years or more (when they forget how close they came this time). They printed money FFS! (I still can't believe they did this)

 

Since then, I’ve put the more balanced case here, and been slated for it many times. However, here we are.

 

Anyway, the past is gone and it's the future that matters. So, if rates rise significantly in the next couple years (unlikely) then that could conceivably result in a new correction. If not, and we don’t have another boom in the meantime, then the excesses could well be worked off by the time rates start to go up.

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Oh come on, really. You were constantly going on about crash cruise speed etc for years, and all the time BDEV, your Bellwether, continued to rise (try overlaying BDEV with Land reg figures).

 

Only recently have you suggested a bottom might be in (for now).

. . .

 

TBH, it’s served me very well thank you, as my historical posts here clearly show. From my concerns it was all a big ponzy from way back before HPC (my posts started here from ~2006 and explained how I'd been thinking it was all crazy since 2002-3) to my STR’ing in late 2007, and buying back in the dip of 2009 when it was clear that QE, here and abroad, along with other government interventions, was going to stabilise things and the financial collapse we were concerned about was averted and unlikely to happen for at least another 20 years or more (when they forget how close they came this time). They printed money FFS! (I still can't believe they did this)

 

Since then, I’ve put the more balanced case here, and been slated for it many times. However, here we are.

 

Anyway, the past is gone and it's the future that matters. So, if rates rise significantly in the next couple years (unlikely) then that could conceivably result in a new correction. If not, and we don’t have another boom in the meantime, then the excesses could well be worked off by the time rates start to go up.

 

You haven't read carefully - go back and look at my Diary.

 

When the dips came, I saw potential for further drops, but BDEV stayed strong, you will see I did my best to keep a balanced view, while warning that rising rates were likely to be the eventual Bubble-popper

 

Here's a recent example:

April 1st or not, this chart is at a possible Double Bottom - so maybe wave 4 is done...

 

ukhaliwrest13pred.png

 

A rise to test (or nearly test) the old high over GBP 180K may be inspired by the Tories Deposit give-away scheme.

Selling in London (at much higher prices) and buying outside may be wise and prudent now, especially if your job

and living situation permits such a well-timed down-sizing.

 

If that's not Calling the Low at the (possible) Low, then what is?

 

And have you forgotten these sorts of posts about "A PAUSE" from Summer 2011:

I haven't been talking "crash cruise speed" for months.

 

BDEV told us late 2010 and early 2011, that we could expect a "pause", and that is what we have been in for some months.

I reckon BDEV will signal with a sharp fall below 100p if/when the pause is going to be ending.

 

BDEV-chart

 

The fall through 100p may have begun from that recent "right shoulder", and the volume on the way down should give us an idea whether a sustained drop has begun

 

A cautious statement from July 2011 -

And shortly after that, I put a DEPOSIT DOWN on a property in New Festival Quarter, near Poplar.

I would have gone ahead with it, if my London-based business partner had been willing to Rent the flat.

He decided not too - He was too nervous, so I did not go ahead with it, and lost the deposit.

 

Is that the action of somewhat thinking we are in the middle of a Crash Cruise speed move? Of course not !

 

 

Where's your track record?

If you think you can do better, then why not start your own UK Property Diary here or in the Trading section?

(A serious suggestion,) You might even find that it becomes popular.

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JD,

 

If you had a Property and Other Investments Diary -

you could comment on other Topics too - like Gold (see ZM's comment, above)

 

You could run it here, or in the Trading section.

I think it would be great to have someone actually based in the UK talking about UK Property,

rather than me - so far away - and left to rely on various "bellwethers"

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