Jump to content
G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

Recommended Posts

Yep, good post JD. And now that the wise UK government, comprised of philosopher kings, financial genii and brilliant students of human nature :lol: is offering government backed sub-prime mortgages, it would seem highly probable that there are going to be further increases.

People who have put thousands of posts on the internet about how prices were going to collapse should have the humility to admit they were wrong.

 

 

It’s not really a matter of who was right, although you were certainly wrong on this one :D .

 

Not really.

 

We were all talking about the UK as a whole (as the indices pointed out). Everyone knew that certain parts of London were different and these had seen their nominal low in 2009 (perhaps except for a few diehards that repeatedly kept trying to say London was falling and it would all collapse).

 

Indeed, going further, we, (the one or two less bearish), often pointed out that good houses in good areas were easily outperforming not-so-nice properties in less affluent areas, and regularly pointed out that there isn’t single market in the country, just many smaller ones. However, taking the country as a whole, it is no surprise at all to see nominal prices essentially flat over the last year or two, and unlikely to fall much further, if at all in the coming few years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

any thoughts on Gold John Doe?

 

Sorry zoomraker, but I really don't know much about gold or PMs (apart from it being an historical store of wealth etc) and I've never really followed the gold threads etc.

 

That said, it looked like a good deal back in 2003/4 (Credit where it's due to Dr B and others for getting in early on that one), but I was always happier with stocks and the housing market as I knew a little about them and practically nothing really about Gold etc (hence I've never commented on any of the gold threads).

 

 

 

I bought a few sov's etc back in 2005, but for fun really, nothing serious. Got some silver last xmas, and have been looking at possibly getting some more sovs & silver soon (but again, no great amount).

And now that the wise UK government, comprised of philosopher kings, financial genii and brilliant students of human nature is :lol: offering government backed sub-prime mortgages, it would seem highly probable that there are going to be further increases.

I still can't believe that they printed money! And everyone just accepted it, as if it were the most normal thing :blink: !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry zoomraker, but I really don't know much about gold or PMs (apart from it being an historical store of wealth etc) and I've never really followed the gold threads etc.

 

That said, it looked like a good deal back in 2003/4 (Credit where it's due to Dr B and others for getting in early on that one), but I was always happier with stocks and the housing market as I knew a little about them and practically nothing really about Gold etc (hence I've never commented on any of the gold threads).

 

I bought a few sov's etc back in 2005, but for fun really, nothing serious. Got some silver last xmas, and have been looking at possibly getting some more sovs & silver soon (but again, no great amount).

 

I was interested in your thoughts on TPTB ability to suppress the Gold price as a way to defend their currencies, specifically the role of the dollar as the global reserve.

 

I think you're spot on about the lengths they will go to, to maintain or even generate another boom in house prices, of course this could end up leading to the mother of all crashes like in the USA but these things move slowly and that could be 10 or 20 years away.

 

Perhaps they will not be so successful attacking gold as it is not just a domestic matter it is a battle of international forces, the west versus the east, but in a sense so are house prices assuming that endless QE eventually leads to either currency collapse or rising interest rates and that may be closer at hand than another 10 or 20 years.

 

Oh for a crystal ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess I've always worried that because it's such a small market (relatively) that it's potentially open to manipulation by bigger forces/powers. But as you imply, there is more to it than that and in many parts it's seen as the safest hedge of all (and will remain that way). If you ever find that crystal ball, please let me have a gander :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, good post JD. And now that the wise UK government, comprised of philosopher kings, financial genii and brilliant students of human nature :lol: is offering government backed sub-prime mortgages, it would seem highly probable that there are going to be further increases.

People who have put thousands of posts on the internet about how prices were going to collapse should have the humility to admit they were wrong.

 

Oh Dear.

You can find plenty of instances were I said I was wrong about London property prices.

 

But there were many other things that I had right. You JD's memory is flawed, maybe badly flawed.

For my record, all you have to do is look at this thread:

 

DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary

 

All the most significant posts are there to be read - Go ahead and read them, just over 200 posts.

ENJOY

You will find great calls and bad calls, and everything in between.

 

If JD thinks he can do better, he should start his own Diary - as I have invited him to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh Dear.

You can find plenty of instances were I said I was wrong about London property prices.

 

But there were many other things that I had right. You JD's memory is flawed, maybe badly flawed.

For my record, all you have to do is look at this thread:

 

DrBubb's Property Diary : tinyurl.com/GPC-Diary

 

All the most significant posts are there to be read - Go ahead and read them, just over 200 posts.

ENJOY

You will find great calls and bad calls, and everything in between.

 

If JD thinks he can do better, he should start his own Diary - as I have invited him to do.

:lol: Calm down Dr B, no-one can be right all the time :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wales sees house prices rise faster than any other UK nation in 2012

 

WalesOnline - ‎4 hours ago‎

House prices are rising faster in Wales than any other UK nation with a 4.1% jump in the 12 months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, good post JD. And now that the wise UK government, comprised of philosopher kings, financial genii and brilliant students of human nature :lol: is offering government backed sub-prime mortgages, it would seem highly probable that there are going to be further increases.

People who have put thousands of posts on the internet about how prices were going to collapse should have the humility to admit they were wrong.

So present policies may well mean house prices go up. Governments offering sub prime government backed guarantees to implode on the watch of the next government may seem like a good idea or an act of folly.

Ditto freshly printed reams of QE to boost the stock market and pull everyone into the quagmire, might seem like a genius ruse. For now.

Those who have 'put thousands of posts on the internet about how prices were going to collapse' may well yet be proved right. Jut not immediately. That is no fault of their own analysis. Rather on account of those desperate to not let it happen and save the bad news for something far worse later.

 

 

John Rubino,

 

''...we should now be deep in a 1930’s style, capital “D” depression... That we're not in a depression today is due to the fact that the world’s governments are, for the first time in history, armed with unlimited fiat currency printing presses and are using them to dump huge amounts of liquidity into the banking system. This is buying time, at the cost of ever-increasing debt.''

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More space can help the market lower...

 

Revolt forces extension plans rethink

 

Channel 4 News - ‎8 hours ago‎

Plans to make it easier for homeowners to build larger extensions are to be reconsidered after the government suffers a backbench revolt and near defeat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notwithstanding who was right or wrong about the UK housing market (I, by the way, am perfectly willing to admit I got it wrong when I STRed in 2003. My defence is that I had no idea the lengths 'they' would go to to keep the bubble up.) - I find it utterly inconceivable that house prices can stay the same, never mind rise.

 

Yet, they do.

 

We have new neighbours. Identical house to ours. Paid 80k more for it that we paid just over 2 years ago. I recently invited the agent around who sold their house to value ours - thinking of moving on again.

 

I know the agent vaguely - he lives on the same estate and I have chatted to him when gardening in the front garden. So I had an informal chat with him and asked him 'what on earth is driving prices when young people are completely priced out of the market'. He agreed that youngsters were priced out ... he said he had been lucky to get in to the market in the 90s - he bought when he was 19! (encouraged by his father) and that if he were 15 years younger he would have no chance whatsoever ... so I said 'How can the market carry on at these prices? Surely, eventually, the lack of demand from the next generation must affect prices'. He said 'you'd think so, but there still seem to be an awful lot of people with cash that they'd rather spend on property rather than leave in the bank earning nothing.'

 

Our new neighbours - mid 40s, both work, good jobs, no children. They have bought a large 4 bed detached house. I asked them why they had upsized when they had no need to. He said 'we had built up a load of cash in the bank and we thought we might as well put it into property.

 

It strikes me the only thing that will cause the housing market to fall is higher interest rates. And that we may be in for 20 years of low interest rates and static house prices while, eventually, they fall in real terms so that the next generation can afford them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Governments offering sub prime government backed guarantees to implode on the watch of the next government may seem like a good idea or an act of folly.

 

Interesting that we have not had a word of protest from Labour on the mortgage guarantees. It seems they have learnt nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that we have not had a word of protest from Labour on the mortgage guarantees. It seems they have learnt nothing.

 

rising house prices are payday for MPs

 

another reason why all parties will do everything they can to keep prices high or rising

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

. . .

Our new neighbours - mid 40s, both work, good jobs, no children. They have bought a large 4 bed detached house. I asked them why they had upsized when they had no need to. He said 'we had built up a load of cash in the bank and we thought we might as well put it into property.

 

It strikes me the only thing that will cause the housing market to fall is higher interest rates. And that we may be in for 20 years of low interest rates and static house prices while, eventually, they fall in real terms so that the next generation can afford them.

 

Great anecdote, BAB

 

Do you doubt that interest rate will rise?

Surely, they cannot stay at ultra-low levels forever.

And even with low rates, parts of the UK have seen a decent correction in prices

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you doubt that interest rate will rise?

 

Well, it is a funny old world these days. Once upon a time I would have said 'of course they will rise - they must do'. But now, I'm not so sure. The government have realised that, yes, savers can be shafted with no ill effects to speak of (as far as they are concerned) and, as a rise in interest rates will take the housing market and the economy down the pan once and for all, I am 61 years old now - I'm beginning to think that maybe in my lifetime I'll never see interest rates back to 'normal'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure... but there may be a time limit.

Send my a PM, if you are up against that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure... but there may be a time limit.

Send my a PM, if you are up against that

 

Well, I would send you a Private Message asking for the ability to edit posts (I am a bit of a stickler for grammar and spelling so, if I make a mistake, I like to correct it) - but, I can't see how to do do it. I thought clicking on the member to view their profile might be the way to go, but, apparently, not.

 

I write software for a living. One of these days - retirement beckons - I am going to write proper forum software.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Max and Stacey talk about Property Taxes as an obvious solution to government deficit problems

 

 

 

"If Cyprus is forced to sell Gold, then Portugal would be/should be too"

"I have got my money on the billion Indians" (buying gold)

 

"PROPERTY" is a sitting duck... You cannot move it, so revenue-hungry governments are going to tax it."

"Spain is (likely) to tax Brits with property in Spain, to cover their deficits"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I would send you a Private Message asking for the ability to edit posts (I am a bit of a stickler for grammar and spelling so, if I make a mistake, I like to correct it) - but, I can't see how to do do it. I thought clicking on the member to view their profile might be the way to go, but, apparently, not.

 

I write software for a living. One of these days - retirement beckons - I am going to write proper forum software.

 

Hi Bab,

 

After you have made a post, then there is an edit button that appears on the bottom right of the post (next to the report, multiquote and quote buttons) which you can use for an hour or so.

 

(PS, the edit and the report links both look greyed out until you put the mouse over them)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was thinking about this. In an almost completely wrecked economy like Britain's, the only economic "growth" comes from an increase in the money supply. And nearly all of that increase in the money supply comes from increases in the housing market. (I know how ludicrous that is but I am trying to think like a politician here). The housing market will be the very last thing that the government tries to tax, and certainly well after savings (money hoarders are depriving hard-working families of their money) and pensions (the government wants to provide protection for hard-working families against investing in risky private companies).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the reason politicians won't want to tax property is because they'd be taxing themselves,

 

they get their mortgage paid for by the tax payer so are basically getting a free go at the Casino - as long as this situation persists all government policy will be aimed at keeping prices as high as possible and the market as liquid as possible

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That too. Thank heavens that Britain is run by an extremely talented, well educated and selfless group of individuals who are genuinely concerned for the good of the country and are absolutely not interested in pursuing policies for their own gain. People as brilliant as the current group of British politicians could be earning millions in the private sector if they weren't so dedicated to the common good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the reason politicians won't want to tax property is because they'd be taxing themselves,

they get their mortgage paid for by the tax payer so are basically getting a free go at the Casino...

 

Yeah.

So they want to "rig the wheel" in the casino, so they get a payoff from it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't be surprised if Labour bring in a mansion tax for properties over 2 million pounds. This is n't a bracket that vote Labour and attacking the rich wins you votes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×