UK House prices: News & Views

[drbubb]

House prices up as buyers return

Halifax Evening Courier - ‎Sep 6, 2013‎

House prices are 5.4% higher than last summer as property market activity intensifies, figures from the Halifax show. The lender said prices rose 0.4% in August, the seventh consecutive monthly increase, resulting in an average figure of £170,231.

. . .

(sorry - same as above)

 

I want to highlight THIS part:

... the Bank is ''acutely aware'' of the potential threats and said action will be taken to clamp down on mortgage lending if needed.

 

Carney seems to be aware that the programme was driven by POLITICAL rather than ECONOMIC reasons

[TheFox]

what does this say about the market?

the bigger they are the further they fall?

It all starts at the top?

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-1294091/We-beat-Chris-Gwyneth-race-Mansells-mansion.html

 

3 years on and still no sale

and today's price is (drum roll)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26099700.html

 

comments please

[notanewmember]

The UK's "all in" ante at the Property Poker table.

[Van]

I said at the start of the year that I thought UK property would RISE 5% or so. It is not a surprise at all when you consider how cheap money is. You can get a 2yr fixed for 1.5% for christ sake!!

 

 

[borassic]

hubris from Osourne as he has his own "end of boom and bust" speech

 

"We've saved the economy and proved Labour wrong"

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/10295060/Osborne-Weve-saved-the-economy-and-proved-Labour-wrong.html

 

Looking forward to his nemsis (a job at the IMF, big bank, UN envoy, ad nauseum)

[drbubb]

I said at the start of the year that I thought UK property would RISE 5% or so. It is not a surprise at all when you consider how cheap money is. You can get a 2yr fixed for 1.5% for christ sake!!

 

An unhealthy boom is guaranteed, since those rates are unsustainable

[drbubb]

Just when you thought it was unsafe to jump into the Waters ... The Bulls arrive...

 

BDEV: 323.05 +8.55p : +2.27% ... chart

Barratt is trying to breakout of the Bearish box it is in !

A close over 325-330p, especially if it comes with good volume, should do the Trick - if we get that.

 

Today's action so far...

 

Open : 316.30

High- : 327.90

Low - : 316.20

Volume : 1.83 mn, so far - versus 2.84 on Friday

[frizzers]

Just my 2p, but you can't move in east or south London for cranes and new builds.

 

There are new train lines and stations, all v. fast and v. expensive, all over, though the roads are awful and it is always gridlocked.

 

Yet there is no beauty anywhere. There is not one building that in my view is attractive. All concrete and glass monstrosity.

 

Unlike other parts of London - which were built by people for people.

 

Wapping is nice. But elsewhere, ugh.

 

One thing London ain't got - soul

[drbubb]

I like the Shard - and it adds something to the neighborhood

 

 

But it might be too tall

[borassic]

This from HPC - although the agent is the notorious Roy Brooks - a hero for plain English, long since dead (for both)

 

http://www.rightmove...y-42812591.html

 

A classic Roy Brooks ad below - oh for agents to be more, creative yet honest - the above is truly deceptively spacious - meaning, yes, it really is small.

 

"Wanted: Someone with taste, means and a stomach strong enough to buy this erstwhile house of ill-repute in Pimlico. It is untouched by the 20th century as far as conveniences for even the basic human decencies are concerned. Although it reeks of damp or worse, the plaster is coming off the walls and daylight peeps through a hole in the roof, it is still habitable judging by the bed of rags, fag ends and empty bottles in one corner. Plenty of scope for the socially aspiring to express their decorative taste and get their abode in The Glossy, and nothing to stop them putting Westminster on their notepaper. Comprises 10 rather unpleasant rooms with slimy back yard, 4,650 Freehold. Tarted up, these houses make 15,000."

[drbubb]

Vince Cable vs George Osborne on a housing bubble: a Coalition row that benefits nobody

 

Want help buying a home? The Government is here to help.

 

Its big plan is the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee. According to the friendly folk at HMT, the second part of the scheme, available from next year, will increase the supply of high loan-to-value mortgages by offering a government guarantee to lenders who provide mortgages to people with a deposit of between 5 per cent and 20 cent.

 

Now, compare and contrast:

Some have questioned whether new risks are emerging in the housing market.

This debate would benefit from a little less assertion and a little more examination of the evidence.

House prices are down a quarter from their peak in real terms, and relative to earnings they are back at 2003 levels.

Mortgage approvals are running at only a little more than half, and transactions a little more than two-thirds, of pre-crisis levels.

 

== ==

 

Okay.

But what do the figures look like for Greater London on its own?

[drbubb]

Housing market recovery is 'spreading'

 

FinancialAdvice.co.uk - ‎58 minutes ago‎

Housing developer Barratt's has claimed the recovery of the housing market is “spreading beyond London and the South East,” supporting claims from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), who have also maintained a similar increase in the .

[TheFox]

Housing market recovery is 'spreading'

 

FinancialAdvice.co.uk - ‎58 minutes ago‎

Housing developer Barratt's has claimed the recovery of the housing market is “spreading beyond London and the South East,” supporting claims from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), who have also maintained a similar increase in the .

 

Is this not a sure case of the winners curse ?

[Chartered Surveyor]

This thread needs to be more bullish and expand to move into a new direction in how to take advantage of the existing bull market. The bubble phase has yet to develop..

 

There is money to be made in the current market and too many people are still debating the moral standing of UK house prices rather than the opportunity it offers.

[drbubb]

CS,

You could be right, and I have been saying the same with respect to Properties OUTSIDE LONDON

 

Any Ideas?

 

(I think it is time to revive the Outside London thread - while still keeping an eye on BDEV, etc for Early Warnings of surprises.)

[drbubb]

(Why are Foreigners interfering in the UK's Housing Market - who is putting them up to it?)

 

Bedroom Tax victims going hungry and pushed to brink of suicide, warns United Nations ...

 

Mirror.co.uk

The hated Bedroom Tax is forcing people to go hungry and is pushing victims to the brink of suicide, a United Nations boss said today.

 

== ==

 

The "tough love" position on this would be to say:

Some (dependent) people need to learn how to manage their affairs better

[drbubb]

House price inflation should be capped at 5pc, RICS says

 

House prices should be prevented from rising by more than 5pc a year to stop another bubble destabilising the economy, a top property institute has urged.

 

 

The proposal, from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), followed a warning from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney yesterday that policymakers needed to be “vigilant” to the risks of a bubble caused by the Government’s mortgage subsidy scheme.

 

RICS said the Bank should police its proposed 5pc cap in house price inflation through its Financial Policy Committee (FPC). If prices pushed above the limit, the FPC could enforce lower loan-to-value or loan-to-income ratios, shorten mortgage terms, or restrict lending to prevent them spiralling higher.

===

http://www.telegraph...-RICS-says.html

 

They have "an idea" of how to Cap prices - but it is not so easy:

+ Do you cap prices in London, or Overall UK?

+ HK and Singapore have tried this, and found it just puts the market into a coma, and does not allow easy fine-tuning of prices.

[Van]

Rock bottom mortgage rates = Peak prices

 

http://www.telegraph...-of-3.43pc.html

 

 

The Bank of England announced that the average mortgage interest rate fell to 3.43 per cent in the three months to June, down from 3.47 per cent the previous quarter, while the average rate for new mortgages fell from 3.65 per cent to 3.47 per cent.

 

But borrowers have been warned that rates have already started to creep up again since the figures were compiled, meaning the era of all-time low mortgages may be at an end.

 

*******

 

I can concur with this. Before I remortgaged last month, the 2.85% deal I was hope to get was pulled, and replaced with a 2.99% deal (Virgin). Still very low of course, but I rather think that we cannot go any lower.

[JIMBOWEN27]

London housing bubble....

 

http://www.cityam.com/article/1379469411/osborne-denial

 

EXCERPT:

"London house prices are up 10pc in a year. So why does the chancellor say there’s no bubble?

CHANCELLOR George Osborne has rejected suggestions that his policies are creating a housing bubble, even as new evidence emerges that prices are soaring in London.

In an interview yesterday, Osborne said: “I don’t see the evidence of some housing boom out there. What I see is not only house prices 25 per cent lower than they were, but mortgage approvals half what they were, transactions two thirds of what they were. In other words, we are a long way from a housing boom.”

- See more at: http://www.cityam.com/article/1379469411/osborne-denial#sthash.FiigesHs.dpuf

[Perishabull]

Rock bottom mortgage rates = Peak prices

 

http://www.telegraph...-of-3.43pc.html

 

 

The Bank of England announced that the average mortgage interest rate fell to 3.43 per cent in the three months to June, down from 3.47 per cent the previous quarter, while the average rate for new mortgages fell from 3.65 per cent to 3.47 per cent.

 

But borrowers have been warned that rates have already started to creep up again since the figures were compiled, meaning the era of all-time low mortgages may be at an end.

 

*******

 

I can concur with this. Before I remortgaged last month, the 2.85% deal I was hope to get was pulled, and replaced with a 2.99% deal (Virgin). Still very low of course, but I rather think that we cannot go any lower.

 

Chelsea BS are offering a 5 year fixed rate for 2.69% (75%). Unbelievable. I'm rather doubtful that these same low rates will still be around when we are due to switch to another deal in April 2015....

[drbubb]

Recovery has reached escape velocity?

 

BBC: UK retail sales in surprise August fall

How about we adjust there figures for population growth and inflation? Retail sales volumes fell 0.9% in August according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - a surprise for analysts who had expected a rise of around 0.4%. The retail sector accounts for around 6% of the UK economy. (The government another 50%) The economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter of the year, according to the latest estimates. Earlier this month, the OECD, an international organisation, said it now expected the UK to grow by 1.5% this year, up from the 0.8% growth it previously forecast. Food sales fell by 2.7% in August compared with July. Last week supermarket Morrisons said higher levels of spending in London were not reflected in other areas.

 

== ==

 

ESCAPE from Logic, maybe ?

[notinformation]

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2013/09/keiser-report-housing-bubble-ponzi-and-icarus-economics/

 

Keiser Report: Housing Bubble Ponzi and Icarus Economics

 

Posted on September 19, 2013 by Stacy Herbert — 29 Comments ↓

We discuss the triangle of fraud in the housing sector and the policy of Icarus economics in which banks can’t crash soon enough because then they can get their bailouts from the taxpayer. In the second half, Max interviews Simon Rose of SaveOurSavers.co.uk about the George Osborne’s ‘New Deal’ of putting estate agents to work as flocks of pigs fly across the London sky. They also discuss the five years of unintended consequences, including that which has led to the idea being floated of a government cap on house price rises to correct the problem of government intervention in the mortgage market.

[drbubb]

Here's the VID - with Max

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GHnEpp1B3A

 

"A NATION of Real Estate Agents !"

 

"They think that George Osborne's Help-to-Buy scheme is frigging genius."

"25% of new jobs... are in the Real Estate sector.

"A triangle of fraud, a Bubble... which will pop within 23 months."

"It's WEALTH SHIFTING."

[borassic]

Faisal Islam just appeared on Channel 4 news calling UK market disfunctional - report on Asian investors with billboards saying "and NO SOCIAL HOUSING" in the hotel marketing suites.

[Van]

Here's the VID - with Max

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GHnEpp1B3A

 

"A NATION of Real Estate Agents !"

 

"They think that George Osborne's Help-to-Buy scheme is frigging genius."

"25% of new jobs... are in the Real Estate sector.

"A triangle of fraud, a Bubble... which will pop within 23 months."

"It's WEALTH SHIFTING."

 

 

He gives a pretty damning verdict of the UK economy... none of it refutable, imo.