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UK House prices: News & Views

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http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNew...604&sp=true

Taken together, the properties seized by tax collectors for arrears and put up for sale last week represented an area the size of New York's Central Park. Total vacant land in Detroit now occupies an area almost the size of Boston, according to a Detroit Free Press estimate.

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I might buy a house soon too.

 

It's going to be a small house, 2 times joint earnings. I'm going to buy it with maximum mortgage and minimum deposit. i.e. sell the minimum amount of gold.

 

I hope to buy a bigger house in 2 to 5 years time.

 

My PM stash is 25% of our joint earnings. How does this affect the way you interpret my view btw?

 

A genuine idiot question:

 

What is a "PM stash".

 

I feel I should know what one is, but don't!

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As posted on the HPC Merryn & Affordability thread

 

The usual downturn is 3-5 years after the peak.

 

But this one could be 5-6 years because of the error in money policy which has created the current strong Dead Cat Bounce, and it will be "as if" the downturn is restarting from a second peak in 2009.

 

Many now see a need to regulate lending, and enforce LTV maximums, and Price-to-Income measures. This may help to bring down the market. But the real problem is the artificial level of interest rates, which will not last as long as CEBR expects. (Low rates until 2014 is a complete joke, don't these guys understand what that would do to Sterling - $0.75? $0.50?)

 

Also, banks are not the sole driver of property price levels. Not everyone is a "knee-jerk idiot" who will buy just because some misguided bank will lend them the money.

 

In fact, I think the losses that people are going to suffer in the next 2-3 years will greatly reduce the population of Knee-Jerks in the UK, and buyers themselves will begin to regulate what they will pay for properties, and 3-3.5x income may again be seen to be the limit of a sensible price.

 

Presently, the very low interest rates - lowest in Britain's future - have distorted people's thinking about what is a sensible price to pay for housing. The UK moentary authorities have miscalculated. The boom they have engineered is just storing up problems, and will help to create a bigger property crash down the road, when rates rise.

 

Sterling may be the Achilles Heal in this story. People are fleeing the currency because of the low rates, and continued weakness will bring higher inflation and a need to raise rates. This may happen far sooner than the current (complacent) consensus expects.

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Sterling may be the Achilles Heal in this story. People are fleeing the currency because of the low rates, and continued weakness will bring higher inflation and a need to raise rates. This may happen far sooner than the current (complacent) consensus expects.

 

Bloomberg had an interesting story today that contained a similar sentiment - interest rates will rise sooner than the market is currently predicting and this will prove positive for sterling:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=amtblYhnoLN4

 

Goldman predicted this month that sterling will appreciate 9 percent versus the euro to 84 pence by year-end, and by 14 percent to $1.85, even as U.K. debt quintuples as a percentage of gross domestic product. Jen sees the currency climbing 7.6 percent to $1.75.

 

Investors underestimate the risk of the Bank of England increasing its key interest rate from the current all-time low of 0.5 percent, according to a study by Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG based on the Taylor Rule, an economics equation for predicting central bank moves based on policy makers’ tolerance for inflation and unemployment.

 

The Taylor Rule shows the rate should be about 2.75 percentage points higher, Deutsche Bank said in the report. Futures contracts predict less than a quarter-percentage point increase by April 2010, the biggest disparity among the Group of 10 economies, according to the study.

 

Goldman called the last rally from the $1.35 low to $1.65 almost perfectly and this has article given me some food for thought regarding sterling's prospects.

 

However, I'm not sure what Stpehn Jen is smoking stating that UK property is cheap - perhaps to rich foreign buyers looking for prime London real estate but I can't imagine he means this from a UK wage perspective.

 

“The U.K. is cheap, its properties are cheap, its companies are cheap,” said Stephen Jen, a money manager at BlueGold Capital Management LLP in London and the former head of foreign exchange at Morgan Stanley. “Friends and family who have visited me always complained about the cost of living in London, but they have since stopped complaining.”

 

However, his comment does echo what Merryn from Moneyweek was mentioning the other week about the comparative cost of living priced in Euros.

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As posted on the HPC Merryn & Affordability thread

 

The usual downturn is 3-5 years after the peak.

 

But this one could be 5-6 years because of the error in money policy which has created the current strong Dead Cat Bounce, and it will be "as if" the downturn is restarting from a second peak in 2009.

 

Many now see a need to regulate lending, and enforce LTV maximums, and Price-to-Income measures. This may help to bring down the market. But the real problem is the artificial level of interest rates, which will not last as long as CEBR expects. (Low rates until 2014 is a complete joke, don't these guys understand what that would do to Sterling - $0.75? $0.50?)

 

Also, banks are not the sole driver of property price levels. Not everyone is a "knee-jerk idiot" who will buy just because some misguided bank will lend them the money.

 

In fact, I think the losses that people are going to suffer in the next 2-3 years will greatly reduce the population of Knee-Jerks in the UK, and buyers themselves will begin to regulate what they will pay for properties, and 3-3.5x income may again be seen to be the limit of a sensible price.

 

Presently, the very low interest rates - lowest in Britain's future - have distorted people's thinking about what is a sensible price to pay for housing. The UK moentary authorities have miscalculated. The boom they have engineered is just storing up problems, and will help to create a bigger property crash down the road, when rates rise.

 

Sterling may be the Achilles Heal in this story. People are fleeing the currency because of the low rates, and continued weakness will bring higher inflation and a need to raise rates. This may happen far sooner than the current (complacent) consensus expects.

I agree with most of what you say here DB but I have to say that I think most people ARE 'knee jerk idiots' and would be buying in even more numbers than they are now if they could wang the mortgage. Property has this magic allure and the arguments for buying are a lot stronger in peoples minds than the arguments for not buying now. Take this bounce strength as an example. People are only too willing to chain themselves upIMO to an overpriced property and the more people that do, the longer the correction will take to re affirm itself, which is just what Gordie and the VI's want.

It will indeed take the losses people are going to suffer in the next 2-3 years to change opinion as to what is sensible price to pay for property. In fact I would say that people are going to have to be FORCED to realise the realities of the situation. Very, very few have the inclination to do the research as to the reasons not to buy.

I'm not too sure about interest rates rising any time soon, either. People may well flee the currency-while they can- and price rises in essentials may well continue in varying guises, packet shrinking/water additives etc and creeping price increases.

Japan has been long on ZIRP. Bernanke has hinted same for USA, why should it be different for the UK? True rising rates would spell disaster and be a potential trigger to propel the speed of realisation that house prices cannot be held up forever.

 

Others with STR's may well think like HPC Big Daddy that it would be better to have security and rush to buy a house before we have a sterling collapse/meltdown of that STR fund (presuming it still in UK pounds-and many are). Fear that gold might become confiscated and capital flight controls/currency controls etc may well force the cash back into the market, or at least a portion of it. Besides which the interest earned on the STR fund for many is not even paying the rent blah blah blah. So I think crash resumption mode may well take longer. Indeed the full 5-6 years post peak. Where are we now-3 years post peak?

There are very few like yourself who can up sticks to HK or someplace and risk their STR fund in miners or manic swings investing. Most have jobs and kids and families and are not traders aware of every twist and turn of the markets. These people may well just throw the towel in and buy back in in a 'to hell with it' attitude and be happy just to own freehold, hold onto a few other investments and hold down their jobs, turn their gardens into veggie plots and hunker down for the long grind.

 

If nearly every country is devaluing their currency (as it looks-US-UK-Yen soon-Euro too) then wont they just errode together?

 

As far as I can see those who can find a mortgage are buying. Idiots, perhaps...but buying nevertheless. Affordability is everything to them as they only look at the 'long term' view that property only goes up over time-however fallacious this may be. Mum and Dad, Gran and Gramps all egg them on 'you cant go wrong with proprty' and ' I bought our first house for 3and6 back in 19xx and look at it now-a quarter mill terrace.

This sentiment will take a long time to wind down and probably young gandson/daughter to be repossessed in order to get a feel for it.

QE has done tremendous damage IMO and is like steroids for all the markets which makes the whole steaming pile look a lot worse for the future down the road.

Of course I hope for rates to rise to 15% but cant see it. There would be mass anger/revolt with the gov and they will try anything to keep them down and not let the property market become their political downfall as it surely should. It makes me want to puke, the whole situation. Our leaders, our bankers, our population. Greed has, or will, kill us. We are all a part of it.

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I agree with most of what you say here DB but I have to say that I think most people ARE 'knee jerk idiots' and would be buying in even more numbers than they are now if they could wang the mortgage. Property has this magic allure and the arguments for buying are a lot stronger in peoples minds than the arguments for not buying now.

 

I understand that sentiment.

And that is exactly what must be eradicated before the downturn can end.

So long as those hopes are still alive within most people, we will not see an important low in the market.

 

The attitude has been / is being severely eroded in the US, and people are now understanding that it may only make sense to Buy, when it is cheaper than renting, because otherwise, why take on all the risks (a huge mortgage is only one of them) and hidden expenses of owning. Then, and only then, people will be buying for the right reasons, and paying sensible prices.

 

This new thinking will come to the UK in my view, but it may take another 4 years from the 2009 "second top" to get there.

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As posted on the HPC Merryn & Affordability thread

 

The usual downturn is 3-5 years after the peak.

 

But this one could be 5-6 years because of the error in money policy which has created the current strong Dead Cat Bounce, and it will be "as if" the downturn is restarting from a second peak in 2009.

 

Many now see a need to regulate lending, and enforce LTV maximums, and Price-to-Income measures. This may help to bring down the market. But the real problem is the artificial level of interest rates, which will not last as long as CEBR expects. (Low rates until 2014 is a complete joke, don't these guys understand what that would do to Sterling - $0.75? $0.50?)

 

Also, banks are not the sole driver of property price levels. Not everyone is a "knee-jerk idiot" who will buy just because some misguided bank will lend them the money.

 

In fact, I think the losses that people are going to suffer in the next 2-3 years will greatly reduce the population of Knee-Jerks in the UK, and buyers themselves will begin to regulate what they will pay for properties, and 3-3.5x income may again be seen to be the limit of a sensible price.

 

Presently, the very low interest rates - lowest in Britain's future - have distorted people's thinking about what is a sensible price to pay for housing. The UK moentary authorities have miscalculated. The boom they have engineered is just storing up problems, and will help to create a bigger property crash down the road, when rates rise.

 

Sterling may be the Achilles Heal in this story. People are fleeing the currency because of the low rates, and continued weakness will bring higher inflation and a need to raise rates. This may happen far sooner than the current (complacent) consensus expects.

 

5 or 6 years after the peak is optimistic and would make this hpc shorter by 1/2 years than hpc of late 80's - Printing presses would need to be on full speed with no chance of stopping!

 

My guesses using my fib chart: (If we go to IMF for bailouts, then it will remove the more optimistic guesses)

 

Optimistic (and 1 year less pain than previous hpc) = 6 years = 2013 bottom

Middle of the road guess = 8 years = 2015 bottom

Pessimistic = 12 years = 2019 bottom

Obliteration of middle class (which is probably the ideal goal for TPTB) = 13 years = 2020 bottom

 

2enrxq1.png

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A GOOD DISCUSSION?

The Bears have been allowed back on SP, and - for once - I think we have a balanced discussion going.

(There are new owners, and so maybe they will let it go on for a while):

 

UK: Time to selldown after the Dead Cat bounce? Is London shrinking?

 

= = = = = = = =

C. said:

Dr Bubb, you said:

"The usual downturn is 3-5 years after the peak. But this one could be 5-6 years because of the error in money policy which has created the current strong Dead Cat Bounce"

 

This smells like smoke and mirrors to cloud the waters and to create some room for manoeuvre - will you plz stick a pin in your best guess for the base date (or "peak")

 

The notion that this "dead cat bounce" forms a new peak is a little farcical - in the real world prices have merely stabilised.

= = = = = = = =

 

Not "smoke and mirrors."

 

It's just that it takes 3-4 years from a top to get the banks desperate enough that they are willing to force their marginal borrowers to sell, and to dump most of the property that they acquire through foreclosure - that's not really happening yet. We were on track for a move towards that sort of desperation early this year. But the QE programme of low interest rates, and a agreement amongst the banks to try leniency has delayed that sort of crunch. We won't get a sustainable rally until prices are low enough that they are truly affordable to more buyers, and Buying is cheaper than Renting. The UK market is far from that. Only a few buyers can trick themselves into thinking that buying is cheaper than renting at current prices. To fool themselves that way, they need to use unrealistic estimates of owners' expenses, and unrealistic interest rate assumptions. (Does anyone really think "the lowest rates in British history" are sustainable on a long term basis?)

 

The bottom typically comes after the forced sales have peaked. So maybe in 2012-13.

 

You say the prices have "merely stabilised", but the Halifax and Nationwide indices suggest the market has clawed back almost half of its losses, and some in London are reporting prices as high as the 2007 peak. It will take time to deflate the unrealsitic price ideas that have come back into the market, which is why I think another 3-4 years.

 

= =

 

WHO DRIVES THE MARKET? Banks or Buyers

 

Bank financing terms can drive the market when there are enough eager buyers to soak up the supply, But the market will not always be like that. Demand can slide, when rates go back up, and/or buyers become fearful again, and supply can rise when people see that the market has turned, and they rush to sell before it slides further. If the supply / demand balance is less favorable, they a shortage of buyers, and increasing supply would drive the market lower, even if banks maintain their current lending policies. But i do agree with you that banks will likely become more restrictive than they have been in recent months, where they have begun to return to some of their reckless policies of 2007.

 

I think of the next move down in prices will seem like a "rug pull", when people discover what they thought would be the floor (the lows of early this year) gets taken out, and price start sliding towards lower lows. The most scary event might be a perfect storm of several negatives, all in the first half of 2010. We could easily see :

 

+ Continuing job losses and falling incomes,

 

+ Interest rates shoting up again, and

 

+ The rug-get-pulled on bullish sentiment (with prices sliding to fresh lows).

 

I think 2010 will be a bleak year for UK property, and if you want to sell, now may be a great time to do so.

 

/ more: http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/ShowThr...D=912723#912697

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My guesses using my fib chart: (If we go to IMF for bailouts, then it will remove the more optimistic guesses)

Optimistic (and 1 year less pain than previous hpc) = 6 years = 2013 bottom

Middle of the road guess = 8 years = 2015 bottom

Pessimistic = 12 years = 2019 bottom

Obliteration of middle class (which is probably the ideal goal for TPTB) = 13 years = 2020 bottom

2enrxq1.png

 

Very nice chart!

After such a big bubble, a longer downturn (than 3-5 years) could be likely

 

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I understand that sentiment.

And that is exactly what must be eradicated before the downturn can end.

So long as those hopes are still alive within most people, we will not see an important low in the market.

 

The attitude has been / is being severely eroded in the US, and people are now understanding that it may only make sense to Buy, when it is cheaper than renting, because otherwise, why take on all the risks (a huge mortgage is only one of them) and hidden expenses of owning. Then, and only then, people will be buying for the right reasons, and paying sensible prices.

 

This new thinking will come to the UK in my view, but it may take another 4 years from the 2009 "second top" to get there.

 

How very depressing. 2013. Sometimes I wish I was American. Well, in times like this. The UK is so married to their damn houses they will be hanging on when they are getting flushed down the loo, denying it all the way.

FWIW-You have made me want to puke for the second time today. Though I sadly accept your analysis, esp when considering the British attitudes to 'their' homes.

 

What is TPTB btw? Go on, cheer me up.

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How very depressing. 2013. Sometimes I wish I was American. Well, in times like this. The UK is so married to their damn houses they will be hanging on when they are getting flushed down the loo, denying it all the way.

FWIW-You have made me want to puke for the second time today. Though I sadly accept your analysis, esp when considering the British attitudes to 'their' homes.

 

What is TPTB btw? Go on, cheer me up.

 

What was it that made you puke the first time?

 

TPTB = The Powers That Be.

 

I know what you mean about brit's holding onto houses - I do that analysis and you would think I would be STR'ing straight away. However, I will not be STR'ing as I like where I live and am concentrating on getting rid of the smallish mortgage asap.

 

My house is my home, my investments are my speculations, and my gold is my money.

 

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What was it that made you puke the first time?

 

TPTB = The Powers That Be.

 

I know what you mean about brit's holding onto houses - I do that analysis and you would think I would be STR'ing straight away. However, I will not be STR'ing as I like where I live and am concentrating on getting rid of the smallish mortgage asap.

 

My house is my home, my investments are my speculations, and my gold is my money.

 

See earlier rant above.

 

My house is my home, my investments are my speculations, and my gold is my money...and you are Richard Russell!

 

Sounds very good to me. But not to get confused, 'my house is my speculation, my gold is my investments and my money is gold'-actually not too bad, on reflection...

 

Thanks for TPTB clarification.

 

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Can THIS be true ?

 

... from an SP posting ...

 

That is an interesting comment.

 

Especially this part:

 

" You may not be aware but the government will pay interest on the first £200k of your residential mortgage once you have been out of work for 13 weeks.This should put a stop to repossessions permanently for many."

 

I presume that is a TEMPORARY program. When does it expire?

 

If they leave it in place, it is full of awesome moral hazard. People who are concerned about losing their jobs have a strong incentive to buy a £200k property that they may not be able to afford, because if they then lose their job, the government to pay their mortgage interest. If they were prudent, and remained as renters, would the government pay the rent? It think not.

 

This is typical of the truly breath-taking arrogance and stupidity of the present UK government. They are doing everything they can to encourage property speculation, and reckless behaviour. ( In fact, they may have already wrecked Britain's future - the fear that they were doing so, was one important reason that I left the UK.) The sooner that Brown and his cronies are put into history's dustbin, the sooner the country can get back on its feet. A country with so much of its economy dependent on speculation in overvalued property, and transfer payments, is a disaster waiting to happen. And the disaster has now overtaken the UK.

 

/See SP-post#913517 : http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/3/91351...ead.aspx#913517

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Can THIS be true ?

 

... from an SP posting ...

 

That is an interesting comment.

 

Especially this part:

 

" You may not be aware but the government will pay interest on the first £200k of your residential mortgage once you have been out of work for 13 weeks.This should put a stop to repossessions permanently for many."

 

I presume that is a TEMPORARY program. When does it expire?

 

If they leave it in place, it is full of awesome moral hazard. People who are concerned about losing their jobs have a strong incentive to buy a £200k property that they may not be able to afford, because if they then lose their job, the government to pay their mortgage interest. If they were prudent, and remained as renters, would the government pay the rent? It think not.

 

This is typical of the truly breath-taking arrogance and stupidity of the present UK government. They are doing everything they can to encourage property speculation, and reckless behaviour. ( In fact, they may have already wrecked Britain's future - the fear that they were doing so, was one important reason that I left the UK.) The sooner that Brown and his cronies are put into history's dustbin, the sooner the country can get back on its feet. A country with so much of its economy dependent on speculation in overvalued property, and transfer payments, is a disaster waiting to happen. And the disaster has now overtaken the UK.

 

/See SP-post#913517 : http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/3/91351...ead.aspx#913517

 

Yes, its true - I thought this was common knowledge?

 

However, it's not all roses as you have to pass certain criteria and lasts for 2 years. Obviously, some are better at passing the criteria than others!

 

More here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7956015.stm

 

Broken Britain in action - Either work hard at being honest, or work hard at being dishonest. Either way this country is deferring the pain.

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Yes, its true - I thought this was common knowledge?

However, it's not all roses as you have to pass certain criteria and lasts for 2 years. Obviously, some are better at passing the criteria than others!

 

Sitting in Hong Kong, I am less aware of such (dangerous) policies.

Do you agree with my assessment of the possible moral hazard, and chances for cheating?

 

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Sitting in Hong Kong, I am less aware of such (dangerous) policies.

Do you agree with my assessment of the possible moral hazard, and chances for cheating?

 

This is only 1 policy in a whole host of dangerous policies. There are many more such as deferrment of Student Loans if you are on benefits, etc, etc.

 

Have a quick look here and see what's on the menu: http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/MoneyTaxAndBen...ncome/index.htm

 

Yes, I 100% agree with you that this is wrong and encourages people to abuse the system. Some of the advice I have given people who have been recently made redundant is to go and get their teeth done as it will be 'free' for them.

 

How did a 'safety-net' turn into this matrix of moral hazard? I beleive it is down to fiat money, which encourages malinvestment. So now we are back on topic to uk houses!

 

 

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Sitting in Hong Kong, I am less aware of such (dangerous) policies.

Do you agree with my assessment of the possible moral hazard, and chances for cheating?

 

I think the basic rules will be, similar to the greater job seeers allowance amount, that if you have no savings and no other income than you have more chance of getting the subsidy.

 

So if you have spent and not saved basically

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Yes, its true - I thought this was common knowledge?

 

However, it's not all roses as you have to pass certain criteria and lasts for 2 years. Obviously, some are better at passing the criteria than others!

 

More here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7956015.stm

 

Broken Britain in action - Either work hard at being honest, or work hard at being dishonest. Either way this country is deferring the pain.

That one is for a temporary loss of income, perhaps for situations such as when BA staff had to work for free for a month. And it's a deferral of interest scheme rather than government payment. There is another one for unemployed people, where the interest is paid on loans up to £175k for up to 2 years. So, no need to get a job if you've got an I/O mortgage! Repayment mortgagees pay for this and can't benefit. They need to buy private insurance for themselves as well as buying insurance for the I/O guys.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/7601147.stm

 

Renters can claim housing benefit but I'm not sure how much effort the government goes to to keep them in their home for any length of time.

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Hi all,

 

Is there an accessible way for little investors (a.k.a me) to profit from property price declines i.e. to hedge against a fall in house prices if we buy a house? Are you able to buy tradeable futures or CFDs tied to e.g. the Halifax or Nationwide House Price indexes? Or can only the big boys do this?

 

Wanderer

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I fully expect another potential 10-15% drop over the next couple of years, but these schemes, among the other safety nets and my realisation that rates will be kept low far too long than necessary, is why we recently have just bought a place.

 

Did our research of course - according to nethouseprices (and historic price data) and accounting for the work needed on the property, it looks like we have bagged a ~30% below peak.

 

Worst house in best street etc. Great school for baby Doe too. Small mortgage at historically low rate (kept enough savings to pay off if necessary).

Other reasons too, like our rented house being sold etc etc.

 

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I have a little experience to share with you all. Im a carpenter and I finished work on this 3 barn complex in Jan 2008. I had STR july 2007 and believed in a severe HPC. When we had finished the three barns the estate agents were called in to value them. The developer (who had sunk most of his ££ into the development) my m8 the builder and me sat in the kitchen and wrote down what we though they would be valued at. We all agreed arround £850,000, £750,000 and £575,000 for the three. He marketed them at those prices too. I said that he would be lucky to sell them for £450,000, £400,000 & £300,000. He laughed and said that he wouldnt make a bean if that was the case! He is now down to £339,000 for the smallest and the others are rented as far as I know.

 

All through the Autumn and winter I was saying to him that there was going to be a massive HPC with bank failures, and that the banking system would collapse followed by a bailout that would cause hyperinflation, and that gold would do well. He just scoffed at me thinking, dumb carpenter, what does he know-Im a pwoperdee investor and a millyonair! I wonder what he thinks now.

 

Im not being big headed about it, as the credit belongs to cgnao, goldfinger, financial planner, and others who I believed were right. Even Im shocked at how it all turned out. The only feature which is yet to happen is the massive inflation, but that is on the cards. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aIGhSsRwtkoE

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