Jump to content
G0ldfinger

UK House prices: News & Views

Recommended Posts

I have a little experience to share with you all.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

 

I have a friend who is into BTL. I think he has something like 5-10 flats. He has no permanent job, does well-paid contract work (if he can find it). Anyway, he wanted to buy another flat recently, but the bank said "no way". But he found a way: you just have to state that you intend to move into the flat, and, whoopey, the bank was happy to hand out the cash. Well, the deal fell through anyway. But the message is: celf-cert and fraud, if you think it is really dead yet, you must be kidding. The big downturn is yet to come. Bubb might be spot on here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Im not being big headed about it, as the credit belongs to cgnao, goldfinger, financial planner, and others who I believed were right. Even Im shocked at how it all turned out. The only feature which is yet to happen is the massive inflation, but that is on the cards. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aIGhSsRwtkoE

 

The half-hour Jim Rogers/Kikby Daley interview attached to the Bloomberg article you highlighted is interesting.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aIGhSsRwtkoE

 

Jim is expecting a pull back in gold and silver, however he is still very bullish on the PMs as we go hyper.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Is there an accessible way for little investors (a.k.a me) to profit from property price declines i.e. to hedge against a fall in house prices if we buy a house? Are you able to buy tradeable futures or CFDs tied to e.g. the Halifax or Nationwide House Price indexes? Or can only the big boys do this?

Wanderer

 

Try IG index.

They may have something

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Try IG index.

They may have something

Hi DrB,

 

I recall you were thinking of HP derivatives etc some time ago. I would be interested in this as a potential hedge (in addition to the retention of our isa's etc while getting a mortgage) considering our recent purchase.

 

Did you ever get any further with the idea?

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Try IG index.

They may have something

 

They do indeed, hidden right at the bottom of the list:

Current prices are

period sell buy

dec09 165.9 167.9

mar10 167.7 170.2

 

uk wide prices, I guess that's the nationwide index but am usnure.

March one looks interesting. Reckon the crash will have begun by then? That's as late as they are willing to go by the looks of things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm, Mar 10 isn't that far out for such a slow moving asset class. Interesting. Does that reflect the fact that this isn't a terribly well evolved sector of financial derivatives or simply that no-one dare offer something further out than that. Why can't you just buy a 'spot' house price derivative?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hmmm, Mar 10 isn't that far out for such a slow moving asset class. Interesting. Does that reflect the fact that this isn't a terribly well evolved sector of financial derivatives or simply that no-one dare offer something further out than that. Why can't you just buy a 'spot' house price derivative?

 

Because then house prices would be like gold prices and kept artificially low. That's not part of the plan.

 

Have you tried betfair? I am sure you should be able to bet on there.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They do indeed, hidden right at the bottom of the list:

Current prices are

period sell buy

dec09 165.9 167.9

mar10 167.7 170.2

 

uk wide prices, I guess that's the nationwide index but am usnure.

March one looks interesting. Reckon the crash will have begun by then? That's as late as they are willing to go by the looks of things.

 

Same spreads I posted on the previous page, hasnt changed today on the nationwide news so Im assuming it could be halifax?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All the stops are being pulled out....

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-rob...-housing-market

 

 

The break-up of Northern Rock: Why should taxpayers be paying to inflate the housing market?Surely mortgage lending is the one area where a credit squeeze might even do some good and make houses more affordable?

Comments (28)

Buzz up!

Digg it

 

The government is proposing to invest yet more into a famously over-extended bank. Photograph: Martin Argles/The Guardian

 

Whatever all those bankers are putting in the tea over at HM Treasury, it must be pretty strong stuff. How else can you explain the bizarre decision today to spend £8bn of taxpayers money on re-inflating the housing market? I thought I was having a hallucination myself when I first saw the announcement this morning, but no, this is exactly what it seems: the government is proposing to invest yet more of our money in the infamously over-extended Northern Rock to allow it to lend guess what? - yes, more mortgages.

 

Chief executive Gary Hoffman was very clear when I asked him about it too: the aim is to support the housing market, which he says is weaker than it looks, and make the bank more valuable when time comes to sell it. Say it quickly enough, and it almost sounds reasonable.

 

The idea of using the Rock as a way to compensate for the loss of wholesale mortgage finance elsewhere in the market has been swirling around for a while. It is, after all, the only big bank where the government has full ownership and seems willing to exercise a semblance of control. But whereas it might have made sense for the state to act as lender of last resort when house prices were in freefall, it is hard to see the logic when even the official figures are showing a rising market.

 

Hoffman is right to point out that prices can be misleading because fewer transactions are taking place than during the boom, but are more house sales really what the economy needs most right now? Surely mortgage lending is the one area where a credit squeeze might even do some good and make houses more affordable. And why Northern Rock? What about the small businesses making people redundant because they can't get access to lending from the other banks we are meant to control? More to the point, what about all the other worthy causes crying out for money at a time of a looming public spending squeeze.

 

And yet banks seem to have a special lock on Downing Street. Lloyds is asking the government for another £5bn too, yet not necessarily to grow its business lending, but to escape more government control. Instead the argument we hear constantly is that what is good for the banks is good for us because they will be worth more when it comes time to sell them. With new bankers joining government every day, this drip feed of poisonous ideas must be pretty seductive. But a simple question remains: if throwing more and more money at the mortgage market was such a winning idea for investors, how come Northern Rock went bust?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All the stops are being pulled out....

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-rob...-housing-market

 

Or even........what will the millions who will suffer 'do for fun'?

politician / banker lynching?

 

Why wait?

I am quite serious about the need to "take to the streets in protest".

 

Many Billions are going to be wasted supposedly "helping homeowners", when the real agenda is to prop up a very over-valued property market on the mistaken assumption that this action might save the election hopes of Labour. I can imagine nothing more odious than that. It is alarming that the other parties are not protesting, but they are afraid to lose support from other homeowners, who might vote against them.

 

To counter these political considerations, it is important that those who are being harmed by these actions: namely, taxpayers and future homeowners show that they know that they are being harmed, and that they are organised, and prepared to take protest action.

 

Future homeowners need to be seen as a political force, who are against this sort of waste, or it will go on endlessly.

 

HPC is an excellent place to begin organising. And a name like "Future Homewners against Financial bailouts" might not be a bad name.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect it is more closely aligned with propping up banks balance sheets. Dressed up as helping hardworking families in order to sell the idea to the general population and attempt to buy some votes in the next General Election. <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hyper, hyper!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...uFnu0&pos=7

China’s House Prices Jump 3.9%, Most in 14 Months (Update2)

...

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China’s house prices jumped the most in 14 months in October, adding to concern that record lending may create asset bubbles in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"The cheque is in the post......." says Fergus Wilson.

 

Mortgage arrears of couple who rode the buy-to-let boom estimated at £350,000

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...ed-350-000.html

 

OK, the source isn't the most reliable but here's the first bit of smoke prior to the '2010 Wilson housefire'.

A prime slot awaits them in the BTLers graveyard next to the gravestones of Phil Spencer, Inside Track and Grant Bovey.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OK, the source isn't the most reliable but here's the first bit of smoke prior to the '2010 Wilson housefire'.

A prime slot awaits them in the BTLers graveyard next to the gravestones of Phil Spencer, Inside Track and Grant Bovey.

It wouldn't be too surprising, would it? I mean, why should they get away now, that the market has clearly turned? They should have started selling 3 years ago. Greed.

Just weeks ago Mr Wilson issued a bleak warning to his fellow landlords: 'We are reasonably safe, I think. If we go under, then everyone's going under.'

Exactly. Wait and see!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"The cheque is in the post......." says Fergus Wilson.

 

Mortgage arrears of couple who rode the buy-to-let boom estimated at £350,000

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...ed-350-000.html

 

OK, the source isn't the most reliable but here's the first bit of smoke prior to the '2010 Wilson housefire'.

A prime slot awaits them in the BTLers graveyard next to the gravestones of Phil Spencer, Inside Track and Grant Bovey.

They are with Mortgage Express, now there is a lovely bunch of sharks :(

 

Hopefully Mortgage Express have a better accounting system than they did in the 80's, we were with them then and had to get a court to order them to accept how much was owed before we could sell out house. They tried everything they could to take over the house before we proved them wrong in court.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THE CHEQUE is "in the mail". Sure, Fergus !

 

The Daily Mail has learned the couple are up to £350,000 in arrears on their monthly mortgage payments with one lender.

Mortgage Express, owned by Bradford & Bingley, has sent a final warning letter to the couple, who are believed to have 177 of their properties mortgaged with the bank.

 

The letter means the Wilsons must find the money quickly or risk a large chunk of their Kent-based property empire being seized.

 

Racehorse fanatic Mr Wilson, 61, says he is an innocent victim of the postal strike.

Unusually, he pays his mortgage by cheque - and says the money has been delayed in the post.

He insisted recently: 'We are not a penny behind on our loan payments.'

 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0WotoCYNR

 

Link to SP thread:

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/thread/924823.aspx

 

== ==

from another thread there / Why the Minor Pain in the UK - versus a 30%+ drop in the US?

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/925585/...ead.aspx#925585

 

Zulu, You talk like owning properties is a good thing. (?)

 

It is, only if the price is rising fast enough to make up for a loss. Now presently, the loss relative to renting is small, and maybe if you are lucky, the interest cost of owning could be slightly less than renting. Which means the homeowner is slightly better off than renting, without any increase in house prices. This (temporary) condition, and the expectation of some HP inflation has encouraged some to buy. If they re very lucky, within 12-18 months, the savings may be enough to cover the transaction costs of: stamp tax, legal fees, bank fees, etc. You have to be a real optimist, to see this as a way to make money.

 

Now what happens if interest rates rise just a little, like 1%? The cost of owning probably pushes up over the cost of renting, and at the same time, higher rates will discourage buying, and bring home values down. The slide will resume.

 

Suddenly all those who bought in 2009, who were hoping to save their transaction costs, will suddenly find themselves with a loss. And some may be trapped in negative equity.

 

This is the big "rug pull" trap, that is awaiting today's homebuyers. They are going to feel like they were tricked - all because they failed to think ahead, and did not understand the risks that they were buying into.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can someone write cheques for +700 mortgages? Sounds retarded to me. I guess they have never heard of online banking, standing orders, or direct debit? FFS, this must be a joke, or they're really in big doodoo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I must not laugh at the misfortune of others!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But the Wilsons are an exception!

 

Cheques in the post my asre!

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are we right at the "Bull Trap"?

 

post-1632-1258228020_thumb.jpg

 

post-1632-1258227996_thumb.jpg

 

Given we are 12-18 months behind the US I believe the current excitement about rises will wither along with all those green shoots as we bounce along the bottom of the barrel for several more years to come.

 

My call is a bottom 2012-13 :blink:

 

SafeBetter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My call is a bottom 2012-13 :blink:

Yes, far from a bottom. First wait for the Wilsons to unload their cr@p into an already flooded market. It's gonna be quite a sight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×