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UK House prices: News & Views

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This could be progress - (FSA needs to cap LTV)

 

FSA treats mortgage lenders like 'drug dealers', says CML chief

Britain's financial regulators see lenders as “drug-dealers at the school gates”, the head of the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said in an astonishing attack on the Financial Services Authority.

 

 

FSA sees lenders as 'drug-dealers at the school gates', says CML chief Matthew Wyles.

Hitting back at the idea that lenders are “evil” and reckless, Matthew Wyles said the industry should be allowed to treat its customers as adults, respecting their right to make their own decisions.

 

He said: “I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s the way that regulators see consumers – as wanton children who have a tendency to want what isn’t necessarily good for them, and for whom Nanny knows best.

 

 

“Increasingly, I also have the feeling that regulators see lenders and intermediaries as the sweetshop owners – or worse, the drug-dealers at the school gates – of the mortgage market, enticing innocent consumers in and then getting them hooked, for their own evil profit-driven purposes.”

 

Speaking at the CML’s conference, he said the FSA was at risk of creating “the kind of moral hazard it wishes to avoid”, by making consumers feel they need to take no responsibility for their own decisions.

 

/more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...-CML-chief.html

 

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Yes, far from a bottom. First wait for the Wilsons to unload their cr@p into an already flooded market. It's gonna be quite a sight.

 

A few more classics from the Wilson's:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...es-sale-go.html

 

They seem to be moving rapidly down the Sunday Times Rich List, if they get out of this without debt then fair play to them.

 

"Now, if they sell their portfolio for the £180million asking price, after paying off their meagre borrowing debt (£45million) and taxes, they will retire with a cosy nest-egg of around £100million." :( Whats £70m amongst friends - it was worth £250m, damn our market timing Fergus!

 

 

"They made the decision to sell up after the recent resurgence in the property market, but stress they will strive to ensure their tenants keep their homes.

 

Mr Wilson also wants to spend his retirement mentoring other landlords." :lol: What on how to mis-time the market OR is it negative rental yields!

 

They might be good at maths, but god are they detached from the real world "Mr Wilson intends to take part in TV property programmes to mentor 'buy to let' buyers and people purchasing their own homes." :lol: I think Phil/Katie/Sarah+other C listers have this market cornered, don't they know Carol Smiley is at the front of the queue!

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...let-empire.html

 

 

"Judith and Fergus Wilson, proud owners of a £180million property empire. In fact, their fortune probably peaked at a staggering £250 million - although that doesn’t stop property experts labelling them Britain’s first buy-to-let billionaires." :lol: :lol: Typical property rampers estimates - so £180m = £Billionaire hmmmmm :lol:

 

"Yes, property prices are up almost 8 per cent since March, and estate agents are urging budding landlords to buy now to cash in on rising rental prices - but the Wilsons have had enough." :P Read "It's just dawned on us this sucker is going down!"

 

"The difference between interest rates and rent prices will never be as good as it is now so if we sell, we’ll make more profit than we will any other time in the near future." :P Read "If we don't sell now Fergus there's a good chance prices will never recover in your lifetime"

 

 

These kind of quotes always come back to haunt you:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/otherspor...-outsiders.html

 

"But Fergus believes that their intolerance to outsiders and their attitudes stems from not seeing beyond their noses," :lol: Shame he couldn't see past his when he missed the market top!

 

Not like these guys:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/ma...ket.houseprices Perfect timing ;)

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6330661.stm

 

 

And finally one more clever dick who has gone down the tubes:

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6881640.ece

 

Wondering who he is? Was one of the cocky interviewers on The Apprentice:

Paul_Kemsley_373557a.jpg

 

 

SafeBetter

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http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/...3&ea=215358

 

Quote

 

House asking prices dropped in November and will continue falling for the next two months ahead of the traditional spring buying season, Rightmove has reported.

 

According to the property website, asking prices across the majority of the country fell in November as sellers took steps to get deals wrapped up before Christmas, with London among the worst affected areas.

 

The latest index from Rightmove found asking prices dropped 1.6% in November, having risen by 2.8% in October, to leave the average asking price at £226,440. In London prices pulled back 3.1% to £403,069, with only the North West and Yorkshire & Humberside faring worse.

 

Rightmove also warned there were more falls to come over the next few months. The group's commercial director, Miles Shipside, said: 'We expect three months of asking price falls before a tentative recovery in early Spring, likely followed by pre-election jitters.’

 

Shipside said the market would be hit by the seasonal impact of Christmas - with potential buyers or sellers focused on the festive season rather than moving home - before seeing a further pullback driven by the withdrawal of the stamp duty and VAT holidays.

 

Shipside said: 'While the market has recovered from some dreadful lows, this month's price fall proves that it does not yet have the strength to buck seasonal trends.'

 

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I hadnt seen this report before, but it illustrates the Fraud which helped to prop up UK Property prices in 2005-7,

by fiddling prices put in the LandRegistry. I think this was more widespread than people realise:

 

BBC Panorama Bursting the House Price Bubble Part1 - 04\02\08 / Jeremy Vine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL97yAE7PQw

Bubble Part2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O42nqzUL13k

 

It makes me wonder if there may be some similar elements of fraud, helping to ramp up present prices

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From http://www.citywire.co.uk/Adviser/-/news/p...p;ViewFull=True

 

Quote

House prices could be hit by 'double-dip', says Fitch

By Nicholas Paler | 11:48:52 | 03 December 2009

 

UK house prices face the prospect of a 'double-dip' in the next few years amid high unemployment and constrained lending conditions, a leading ratings agency has warned.

 

Delivering a bleak outlook for house prices, Fitch Ratings warned once again that it expected to see house prices come down by nearly a third from the peak seen in 2007 - despite recent monthly surveys indicating that prices have bottomed out and are starting to creep higher.

 

Fitch, which has kept its credit outlook for UK housebuilders at 'negative' because of its concerns about the sector's debt levels, said a recovery in the housing market in the near term was unlikely, and it expected to see either no growth or further falls in price as problems came to a head.

 

Fitch's UK housebuilder analyst Jean-Pierre Husband, said: 'A quick and sustainable improvement in UK housing conditions is unlikely, and this will restrict the potential for rating upgrades.

 

'The main economic indicators point towards a period of stagnation at best, or at worst a double-dip contraction in house prices.'

 

Highlighting one of the main headwinds facing the sector, a Fitch report into housebuilders noted that: 'Over 66% of UK mortgage borrowers are now on floating rate mortgages, compared with 48% in August 2008, and their ability to service existing mortgage debt would be adversely affected by any hike in interest rates.'

 

Fitch's view on the housing market is in-line with others who remain sceptical about the recent recovery.

 

Capital Economics property economist, Seema Shah, said current increases in price have been driven by a shortage of property for sale, and that this was only providing temporary support before rising unemployment fed through to valuations.

 

Shah said the small increases seen recently made no difference to the underlying outlook and basic argument that prices are still overinflated. She predicted that if rises continued sellers would become more confident about putting homes on the market, increasing supply and therefore driving down prices.

 

She added: 'Unemployment is likely to continue rising long after the recession ends. This will also put heavy downward pressure on average earnings, with the result that pay growth could tip into negative territory next year.'

 

'Even if the economic outlook proves better than we expect, the housing market will not benefit. Interest rates would be raised, reducing affordability, while fiscal tightening will eat into households' disposable income. The upshot is that with the housing market still overvalued, prices are more likely to fall than to rise next year.'

 

Meanwhile a recent house price survey showed prices climbed slightly in the last month, although growth has slowed heading into the holiday season.

 

Nationwide said that house prices rose by 0.5% in November, taking the average house price near to early 2006 levels at £162,764. On a less volatile three-month reading, the building society said the rate of change had dropped to 2.8% from 3.5% in October.

 

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Just stumbled across this one so apologies if already posted but Five experts :lol: make their house price predictions for 2010

 

Nicholas Leeming, commercial director for Zoopla, the property website ...December 2010 year-on-year change - up 2 - 3 per cent

 

"There may be areas, such as central London, where prices will appreciate faster due to increased demand" :huh:

 

Michael Saunders, UK economist for Citi...December 2010 year-on-year change - up 5 per cent - 10 per cent

 

"We are exiting recession in the current quarter and the economy will grow next year. The recovery in the housing market has been an important factor in why we are exiting recession. :blink:

 

 

http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...redictions.html

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Just stumbled across this one so apologies if already posted but Five experts :lol: make their house price predictions for 2010

 

Nicholas Leeming, commercial director for Zoopla, the property website ...December 2010 year-on-year change - up 2 - 3 per cent

 

"There may be areas, such as central London, where prices will appreciate faster due to increased demand" :huh:

 

Michael Saunders, UK economist for Citi...December 2010 year-on-year change - up 5 per cent - 10 per cent

 

"We are exiting recession in the current quarter and the economy will grow next year. The recovery in the housing market has been an important factor in why we are exiting recession. :blink:

 

 

http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...redictions.html

 

 

Thanks for posting that - I now know that there really are alternative realities. The sheer stupidity of such utterances just makes me laugh out loud!

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Sunday Times

December 6, 2009

Chancellor Alistair Darling’s £40bn cut in public spending

 

Alistair Darling will this week tell government departments that the money has run out and they face a three-year cash freeze on spending.

 

The message, the toughest to be delivered by a chancellor since the last Labour government was bailed out by the International Monetary Fund in the 1970s, will mean public sector pay freezes and big job cuts. The cash freeze in Whitehall will mean a “real” cut of nearly £40 billion in spending over three years.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6945979.ece

 

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Michael Saunders, UK economist for Citi...December 2010 year-on-year change - up 5 per cent - 10 per cent

"We are exiting recession in the current quarter and the economy will grow next year. The recovery in the housing market has been an important factor in why we are exiting recession. :blink:

 

(there's a striking inconsistency with this):

"Chancellor Alistair Darling’s £40bn cut in public spending

Alistair Darling will this week tell government departments that the money has run out and they face a three-year cash freeze on spending."

 

I posted this on the 5-Predictions article:

QUOTE

I think it would be better to listen to some experts that called the 2007 top, and also the rally earlier this year.

 

Podcast: http://tinyurl.com/harri2009

UNQUOTE

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(there's a striking inconsistency with this):

"Chancellor Alistair Darling’s £40bn cut in public spending

Alistair Darling will this week tell government departments that the money has run out and they face a three-year cash freeze on spending."

 

I posted this on the 5-Predictions article:

QUOTE

I think it would be better to listen to some experts that called the 2007 top, and also the rally earlier this year.

 

Podcast: http://tinyurl.com/harri2009

UNQUOTE

 

What really surprised me was the remarkably quick turnaround in his views! WHY I ask myself?

 

Michael Saunders, chief UK economist, Citigroup

 

I suspect there's still a good distance further for prices to fall: another 15-20pc drop perhaps. The problem stems in short from the credit crunch − from the fall in the average loan-to-value (LTV) on mortgages and from the withdrawal of foreign wholesale lenders, as well as economic factors such as unemployment.

 

I suspect the total fall in prices from peak to trough will end up being about 40pc, though I can't be sure that that will be the maximum. This year will be easily the worst recession in the last 60 years, and if GDP keeps contracting at the current rate it could be even worse than the worst year in the 1930s. I calculate that it will take until around 2017 for house prices to come back to the level they peaked at in 2007.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...-rise-soon.html

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The banks know what's coming...Easy equity come, easy equity go...

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...-borrowing.html

 

Quote

Taxpayer-owned Royal Bank of Scotland has launched a Christmas crackdown on borrowing, snatching back tens of thousands of pounds from homeowners.

Thousands of customers have received letters slashing the amount they are allowed to borrow on generous 'flexible' mortgages.

Some borrowers say they will be forced to rein in Christmas spending, cancel holidays and put off home improvements because of the miserly step.

 

It could also hit many small business owners who were planning to use their spare borrowing to pay tax bills in the new year.

Those affected all took out a flexible mortgage called Foundations. These were special deals available to loyal customers who held a current account.

 

The mortgage works a bit like an overdraft. Customers were given a borrowing limit based on the value of their home, but they need not take all the money offered. They only pay interest on the money actually borrowed.

 

 

 

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THE MUDSLINGERS are still with us / (from a HPC thread)

 

oh no, is DrBubb calling another false top in the 'dead cat'.

How many more months before bubb starts calling it what it is.......a V not a W.

 

What an idiotic posting!

Anyone who wants to test the accuracy of my forecasts can look at this thread,

and the popular one in the Market Psychology section. You will see that I have been

spot on with my market calls since at least early 2007, as we approached the top

of the 18 year cycle.

 

Many others have tried their own forecasts, and you are welcome to do the same.

Put up (your own thread, show you can do better), or shut up!

 

Does anyone today recall the thread of Property Guru, saying the market was turning in October?

And how about the others back in April saying the market was going to slide lower.

 

It is not as easy as you may think. My threads have set some sort of standard, try and beat it,

if you can.

 

The only one I happily take my hat off to, is Spline who has a very useful website,

with some tools that are a nice supplement to the ones that I use

 

You are hilarious Bubb - guess what - the housing market slows at Christmas and picks up in the Spring.

Looking forward to your claims of being correct about the top when prices fall Jan and Feb and then your silence when they start rising again.

How many years have you been wrong about the direction of the UK housing market for?

You are making a horses-petoot out of yourself with an uniformed posting like that.

But everyone knew that already

 

I will warn you now the if UK house prices stay in the channel that I have drawn here

hpiuk2009b.jpg

 

...then I will claim to have made a bullseye Market Call.

See you you lot can do better.

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so good you have to say it twice.

 

:P

 

Im thinking a letter y rather than a w, the idea being that from here we go a lot further down than a normal dip before slowly coming back up but not as high as we once were. The end of which we have a horizontal rather than increasing trajectory.

 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ks-lending.html

UK property black hole threatens banks' lending

Sunday, 20 December 2009

 

Britain is at risk of a mass sell-off of distressed properties that would send values into a double dip and impair the lending ability of banks.

...

It warned of an increasing number of loan defaults given the 44pc fall in the value of shops, offices and warehouses since 2007.

...

However, the Bank also described how the approach of the lenders to withdrawing from the property sector could jeopardise the economy's recovery.[ :lol: ]

...

But so far the banks have preferred to keep hold of most of their distressed assets while analysing their worth [i.e. mark to myth] and planning how to increase their value.

...

 

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so good you have to say it twice.

 

:P

 

Im thinking a letter y rather than a w, the idea being that from here we go a lot further down than a normal dip before slowly coming back up but not as high as we once were. The end of which we have a horizontal rather than increasing trajectory.

 

Why a "Y"?

Is that just for UK property?

 

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Why a "Y"?

Is that just for UK property?

The global economy has not recovered, apart from a bit of a bounce from stimulus spending.

The US and UK economies will go lower before excessive debts are writedown or restructured.

We have another 2-4 years to go on the downside.

 

"a Housing Bear predicted the Upturn that we saw in 2009,

the 2007 peak... and is now saying the (UK Property) Rally appears to be over."

Can you provide the links to those predictions?

 

LINK: to April 5th thread

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=110340

QUOTE from the first post on that thread:

A Global "dead cat bounce" in property will soon be underway, I reckon.

I make the argument for this elsewhere , we even recorded a podcast about it yesterday.

For many, this bounce may give a last chance to sell, and reduce debt before the second

leg down into a Greater Depression hits.

. . .

I really want to save UK people from a probable Bull Trap, which may will fall into, if they

buy on this "Dead Cat Bounce". They will then watch with horror as prices start sliding

again, when rates begin their inevitable rise, probably 9-18 months from now.

 

aa1w.gif

UNQUOTE = = = = = = = =

 

So far, we have this:

hpiuk2009calls.gif

 

They look rather similar, don't they ?

If you think you can be better, Bateman, I am awaiting your predictions...

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ks-lending.html

 

However, the Bank also described how the approach of the lenders to withdrawing from the property sector could jeopardise the economy's recovery.[ laugh.gif ]

 

the propping up of property delays the true recovery

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ks-lending.html

 

...

But so far the banks have preferred to keep hold of most of their distressed assets while analysing their worth [i.e. mark to myth] and planning how to increase their value.

 

how are they going to increase their value I wonder.

 

There is an over supply of office, retail, and warehouse space and some of it needs demolishing

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Fountainbridge area in Edinburgh: not only much of the residential newbuilts but also a lot of commercial property looked pretty empty to me. That's just from driving by, I have no background information. Where I have some background info is on the Quartermile. In summary, they're in big doodoo.

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house values have been artificially elevated for years (decades, tbh) because of:

  • mortgage lending
  • welfare rents

these two props are now crumbling because:

  • banks are cash-flow insolvent (on top of the usual balance-sheet insolvency)
  • gov't is broke

 

10 out of 10 for effort:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...20-billion.html

Housing benefit bill rises to nearly £20 billion

Housing benefit payments will rise to more than £20 billion this year as the country's welfare bill spirals during the recession.

Saturday, 2 January 2010

 

The Government estimates it will pay out £19.6 billion in housing benefit during the 2009/10 financial year...

 

The year-on-year rise, of almost 15 per cent, is the steepest for more than 15 years. In 2010/11 the bill is expected to rise still further, to £20.8 billion.

...

Earlier this year The Sunday Telegraph revealed that housing benefits were paying for an unnamed family to live in a seven-bedroom home at a cost to taxpayers of £147,000 a year, while 550 families were receiving more than £30,000 annually in housing handouts.

 

...it emerged that Toorpakai Saiedi, a single mother of seven from Afghanistan, was living with her children in a privately-rented, seven-bedroom, £1.2 million house in west London with her rent of £12,458 a month paid by taxpayers.

 

In another case a Somalia-born couple and their eight children were paid £1,600 a week in housing benefit to live in £1.8 million London mansion.

 

And last month it emerged that single mother-of-eight Francesca Walker is living in a five-bedroom, £2.6 million home, again in London, where she receives more than £90,000 a year in housing allowance.

...

Nationwide 17 per cent of households receive some form of housing benefit, but in areas of London the figure reaches more than 40 per cent.

...

 

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